Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- Buffalo is a pass-happy, cold weather team that is walking into a “pass funnel” situation in great weather.
- Jacksonville will have to play one of their better games of the year just to keep their heads above water.
- The Jags will likely struggle to run the ball and have trouble attacking downfield, making a pass-heavy game plan focused on the short areas and schemed routes their best plan of attack.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
The Bills came out of their Week 7 bye a little sluggish offensively (only 10 points through three quarters) but turned it on late to coast to a double-digit victory over the Dolphins. They continue to have aggressive, pass-happy play calling, and their offense is built around Josh Allen. In their Week 8 triumph over Miami, Allen threw 42 passes and ran the ball eight times while Buffalo running backs only combined for 15 carries. That means that Allen accounted for a whopping 76% “usage rate” of plays where he was directly involved in the outcome.
After watching Seattle turn to Geno Smith to attack Jacksonville through the air, it is highly likely that the Bills turn Allen loose against the 32nd ranked DVOA pass defense. Jacksonville is actually a respectable 14th in DVOA against the run, meaning that it sets up a “pass funnel” situation where the Bills will be incentivized to attack their opponent through the avenue that they already have a preference for. The Jaguars play man coverage on the majority of their defensive snaps. This sets up well for a Bills receiving corps that is great at separating against man coverage and a scheme that spreads the field and gives them room to operate. The Bills struggled for the first two and a half quarters against a Dolphins team that also plays a high rate of man coverage, but Miami has much better personnel in their secondary, and the Bills found their groove late — scoring 23 points over their last four possessions after only scoring 3 points over their first six possessions. We should expect the Bills to continue their aggressive approach from the outset of this matchup in Jacksonville.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The Jaguars are a mess. After wandering into a victory in London in Week 6 against a Dolphins team that keeps finding new ways to lose, the Jaguars returned home for a bye. They then entered Week 8 playing a team who was on a short week, struggling offensively and without their franchise cornerstone QB. The way that game was set up, a team with any semblance of organization, direction, and promise would have shown some signs of life and, at the very least, given Seattle a competitive game. Instead, we saw an offense that could barely move the ball and an undisciplined team rack up 12 penalties. The defense was picked on through the air by Geno Smith, which isn’t encouraging, but overall held their opponent to 229 total yards and gave up only 24 offensive points (the last Seattle TD was a fluky onside kick TD return) — which *should* give most teams at least a chance to make a game of it.
After that deflating loss, the Jaguars now return home with the daunting task of playing a Bills team that has been rolling outside of a fluky close loss to the Titans. Based on the evidence we have from Urban Meyer so far, the Jaguars are more likely to be focused on “the best way to lose” rather than finding a way to win. Buffalo ranks #1 in the league in defensive DVOA, with top-5 ranks against both the run and the pass. James Robinson picked up a foot injury, and his status is unclear, so they may be riding the back of 31-year-old RB Carlos Hyde as they attempt to shorten the game. We will often see rookie QBs look better after a bye week, but Trevor Lawrence struggled in Seattle. The environment in that road game likely played a factor, however, and there is a chance we could see him get into a rhythm with short-area passing work if/when the Jaguars realize they aren’t going to be able to ride Hyde to sustain drives. They will need to give Lawrence high percentage throws on early downs to set up manageable 2nd and 3rd downs and keep the Buffalo pass rush from hitting him all game. Buffalo also boasts PFF’s #1 graded coverage unit, meaning that the Jaguars will want to scheme the ball out quickly as their receivers will likely struggle to create separation downfield. A scheme similar to what the Jets did with Mike White in Week 8 would be ideal and give the Jags a fighting chance of at least making this interesting.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
The Bills should be aggressive from the outset and are highly likely to be efficient and score points early and often. While Jacksonville will try to slow things down early, they will be forced from that plan in quick order, as the Bills should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Buffalo ranks 3rd in situation-neutral pace, and Jacksonville is quietly slightly faster than league average in that statistic. The Jaguars also rank #1 in seconds/play when not adjusting for the situation — a ranking which is likely driven by how often they’ve been playing from behind. These statistics provide important context to consider here because it tells us that Buffalo is going to play fast and pass often, from the outset, and Jacksonville is willing to really pump the tempo once they fall behind — which they should do in short order here. The combination of those things sets up a situation where we could see a lot of drives and very high play volume, which is very good for fantasy.
What is truly mind-blowing about the Jaguars being ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA is the fact that they’ve done so while playing a fairly easy schedule of opposing passing offenses. Buffalo’s offensive success should be locked in as one of the top spots of the week, with a chance to go truly nuclear as they aren’t the type to get a lead and be content handing it off and punting for a large portion of the game. Likewise, if Jacksonville is able to score a couple of times in the first half or mount any signs of life early in the second half, it would push the Buffalo offense to be aggressive for an even greater portion of the game.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- BUF has pt differentials of: -7 // +35 // +22 // +40 // +18 // -3 // +15
- JAC has pt differentials of: -16 // -10 // -12 // -3 // -18 // +3 // -24
- BUF is favored by 14 pts on the road to open the week (similar to LAR being favored by 14 on road vs HOU last week)
- QB yds:TDs vs JAC: 291:2 // 328:2 // 316:0:1 // 348:2 // 197:1 // 329:2:1 // 195:2
- JAC ranks 32nd in def pass DVOA and has given up the 2nd highest yds/att
- Allen’s yds (rk of def pass DVOA): 270:1 (15) // 179:2:1 (26) // 358:4 (31) // 248:2:1 (16) // 315:3 (30) // 353:3 (14) // 249:2 (26)
- JAC allowed 40 rush yds to Tyrod & rush TDs to Kyler & Geno
- Allen has 8+ rush TDs in every season
- Allen’s rushing DK pts in 2021 of 4.4 // 3.5 // 6.9 // 4.1 // 11.9 // 2.6 // 11.5
- 18 of 67 QBs since 2014 on teams implied for 31+ pts have scored 30+ DK pts
- 14 of 58 QBs since 2014 on teams favored by 14+ pts have scored 25+ DK pts (5 of 30+ DK pts)
- Two of the five 30+ DK pt scores were Mahomes & Lamar vs the Gase-Jets in 2020 that ranked 8th in def rush DVOA but 28th in def pass DVOA
- JAC ranks 14th & 32nd in def rush & pass DVOA
- WRs over 60 yds vs JAC: Cooks (132) // Sutton (159) // Green (112), Kirk (104) // Boyd (118), Chase (77) // Waddle (70:2), Hollins (61) // Lockett (142)
- JAC has allowed the 2nd highest success rate & yds/att to WRs
- WR targets: Diggs (14, 8, 10, 10, 5, 11, 7) // Beasley (13, 4, 13, 2, 2, 9, 13) // Sanders (8, 6, 6, 6, 5, 8, 4)
- WR aDOT: Diggs (12.4) // Beasley (5.7) // Sanders (17.3)
- WR yds: Diggs (69, 60, 62, 114, 69, 89, 40) // Beasley (60, 36, 98, 16, 5, 88, 110) // Sanders (52, 48, 94, 74, 54, 91, 0)
- Diggs has 10+ targets in 15/26 games with BUF and 8+ targets in 7 more (5, 6, 7, 7 in the only games below 8)
- Diggs has 10 games of 100+ yds with BUF, and 3 more with 90+ yds
- Beasley has three games of 80+ yds this season (11:98, 7:88:1, 10:110)
- Sanders’ role as the intermediate/deep WR has led to just two scores of 20+ DK pts (26.4, 20.4), both in which he caught 2 TDs
- The two games in which BUF faced almost no resistance and won by a combined 75-0 vs MIA & HOU produced a high WR score of 21.4 from Stefon Diggs, with the three combining for yds of 174:1 (Diggs), 52 (Beasley), 122 (Sanders) over the two games
- Season high in DK pts: Moss (18.1) // Singletary (17.1)
- Season high in touches: Moss (16) // Singletary (16)
- Both those season-highs for both RBs came in the first MIA blowout
- RBs with 10+ rush att vs JAC: Ingram (85:1) // Williams (64), Gordon (31) // Conner (43:2), Conner (26) // Mixon (67:1) // Henry (130:3) // Collins (44)
- Mahomes is the only QB with more than just 216 pass yds vs BUF (272)
- BUF has allowed just 5 pass TDs to 11 INT
- Lawrence’s only games of 20+ DK pts have come vs HOU & TEN, teams ranked 16th & 14th in def pass DVOA
- Targets w/o Chark: MJJ (3, 6, 10, 7) // Viska (7, 3, 10, 4) // Agnew (1, 7, 6, 12)
- Production w/o Chark: MJJ (3:24 // 1:25 // 7:100:1 // 5:35) // Viska (6:99 // 1:58 // 6:54 // 2:13) // Agnew (1:27 // 6:41 // 5:78 // 6:38:1)
- #1 WRs vs BUF: Diontae (5:36:1) // Parker (5:42) // McLaurin (4:62) // Cooks (5:47) // Hill (7:63) // Brown (7:91) // Parker (8:85)
- BUF is allowing the 2nd-fewest DK pts to WRs: 26.8 DK pts/g
- Robinson left W8 early and is considered day-to-day
- Hyde finished with a season-high 17 touches (9 att, 8 tg) with JRob leaving early
- Robinson total touches:yds before last week’s injury: 11:54 // 14:64 // 21:134 // 20:76 // 19:147 // 21:101
- Top RB total yds vs BUF: Najee (49) // Gaskin (46) // Gibson (104:1) // Johnson (48) // Williams (45) // Henry (156) // Gaskin (55)
- BUF has allowed just 4 RB TDs all year (3 rush to Henry, 1 rec to Gibson on breakaway screen)