Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Panthers WR Adam Thielen hit injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
- Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard combined for 40 opportunities in Week 3 against the Raiders.
- The Bengals rank second in pass rate over expectation (PROE), behind only the new-look Seattle Seahawks, and 26th in average time of possession (28:06).
- Cincinnati held a walkthrough Wednesday, but all of Sheldon Rankins (hamstring), B.J. Hill (hamstring), and Trey Hendrickson (illness) were estimated as ‘DNP,’ potentially paving the way for the Bengals to be without three starting defensive linemen against the Panthers.
- Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase was estimated as a limited participant on the team’s initial injury report with a shoulder issue.
- Panthers NT Shy Tuttle (foot) missed practice Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 3 win over the Raiders.
- Panthers QB Andy Dalton starts against his former team in the Bengals – narrative alert.
- The Panthers rank dead last in the league in points allowed per game (31.7) while the Bengals rank 26th (26.7).
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
Zac Taylor’s offense is predictable and unimaginative, something we’re not used to saying about the Gary Kubiak-Sean McVay coaching tree. Player roles are simply so straightforward that the offense is easier to game plan against. For example, Ja’Marr Chase held a 6.0-yard aDOT during the first two weeks of the season with Tee Higgins out of action. Then, in Week 3, that jumped to 13.3. Chase operates as the prototypical Z receiver in this offense, while Higgins handles prototypical X duties and Andrei Iosivas handles Y duties. It’s the same thing on repeat, over and over again. The only change compared to what we have seen in previous seasons is the insertion of Iosivas in the role left behind by the departing Tyler Boyd. Taylor does try to insert unique elements into the offense like bunch formations, pre-snap motion, and play action, but the route structures behind those elements typically fall flat in taking advantage of what those looks are designed to exploit in an opposing defense.
Taylor loves his trips formations. There were three plays against the Commanders last week that utilized a trips right alignment (three wide receivers in a bunch formation on the right side). That look is designed to generate missed assignments through layered routes and unpredictability. And yet, the play structure was completely uninspiring. On the first, Chase runs a go, Higgins a slant, and Iosivas a chip-to-flat. The play was designed to take a shot downfield but Burrow was forced to check it down to Iosivas as the outlet. It was face up because there wasn’t any safety manipulation or influence from the design of the play for the first read – it was just, hey, go run fast downfield and if you outrun the dude, we’ll hit you. But that’s exactly what this offense has been for the previous three seasons, heavily reliant on the talent of its playmakers as opposed to actively placing them in the best places and opportunities to succeed. The second instance was trips right with Higgins island left. Iosivas runs an inside dig from slot right, tight end Mike Gesicki runs a five-yard out from wide right, and Chase runs a deep post from tight right. The play was designed to hit Higgins on a slant from wide left as the first read, which was there. But the slant brought him right into the waiting arms of the linebacker, who made the tackle after a nine-yard gain. Nothing in the play structure to manipulate the middle of the field. The third instance came from trips right once again, with Gesicki aligned wide left with a safety in coverage. Chase runs a five-yard comeback from slot right, Higgins a 10-yard out from wide right, and Iosivas a corner from slot right. Commanders safety Jeremy Chinn immediately diagnosed the play and had time to make it to the sideline to break up the pass to Gesicki down the left sideline. Again, nothing in the play structure to manipulate the middle of the field.
A fourth trips formation of the first half was run from trips left, with Chase and Higgins slot left and Gesicki wide left. Chase runs a five-yard comeback, Higgins a 10-yard in, and Gesicki a 15-yard in. All three routes were stacked in alignment on the left side of the formation. Again, nothing to manipulate the middle of the field. The final instance of trips in the first half came just before halftime in the two-minute drill, with Iosivas, Chase, and Gesicki in trips right. Gesicki runs a five-yard flat, Iosivas a 10-yard seam, and Chase runs the weirdest route I’ve ever seen him run. Yes, it involved literal skipping on a seven-yard comeback. It went about as well as you’d think, with five defensive backs staring right at Chase at the time of throw.
I spent so much time on the Bengals and their poor play structure to hammer it into our brains that this team is entirely reliant on its talent winning and doing very little to manipulate opposing defenses. As we’ve seen in the past, that can lead to blow-up games from this unit because Burrow is a top-five or top-six NFL quarterback, Chase is a top-five wide receiver, and Higgins is one of the better WR2s in the league. But man, we need more, Taylor.
Zack Moss has played 65% or more of the offensive snaps in each game this season, seeing a robust 74.0% total snap share and 68.8% opportunity share. He’s also averaging 17.7 routes per game, which ranks seventh in the league at the position. That said, this offense ranks second in the league in PROE, leading to just 11.0 carries per game for Moss. In total, the Bengals backfield has returned one game of 18+ running back opportunities, which came in Week 3 against the Commanders when Moss saw 12 carries and six targets. Remember, 16 running backs saw 18 or more opportunities in Week 1, 19 in Week 2, and nine running backs saw 22 or more opportunities in each of the first two weeks of the season.
In other words, this backfield is severely lagging behind the recent macro trends found in the league, which seems to be the case over the previous three seasons as well. Chase Brown is clearly the more explosive back, but he routinely misses holes, outruns his blockers into primary holes, and has poor patience. With great coaching, this kid could turn into one of the most dynamic backs in the league. The problem is that is not his current situation in Cincinnati. Of note here, Panthers NT Tuttle missed Week 3 and was a ‘DNP’ in practice Wednesday, boosting the micro rushing matchup for the Bengals.
We covered much of the passing expectations from the Bengals in the exploration above. Suffice to say, Chase is an elite talent and can win in almost any setup, but he and Burrow are going to have to do it mostly on their own because Taylor is doing them no favors.
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