GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) continues his trend of sitting out practices on Wednesday and Thursday into Week 16. He has done so in each of the previous two weeks while ultimately logging a limited sessions on Friday before being active come Sunday.
- Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) has not practiced this week, as of Thursday.
- Both teams appear likely to be without their starting kicker.
- Colts WR Alec Pierce has not practiced this week as he deals with a concussion, likely indicating he will be unable to clear concussion protocol and ultimately be inactive come Sunday.
- Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (ankle) has yet to practice this week with a new injury sustained in Week 15.
- Titans will start QB Mason Rudolph under center, sending Will Levis to the bench.
HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Quarterback Will Levis returned from injury in Week 10. Since that time, the Titans ranks 23rd in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging just 27 pass attempts and 19 points per game. They are now turning to Mason Rudolph under center and I have to think those run-heavy ways continue. This is a run-first team that layers in deep passing behind it, built to take advantage of overzealous safeties that bite on play action. The Titans have been horrendous in the field-position battle, surrendering the worst opponent starting field position in the league in game started by Levis this season, something that should help to explain how they rank first in pass yards allowed per game and second in total yards allowed per game but bottom five in points allowed per game. If Rudolph can minimize turnovers and the team can keep out of long down-and-distance situations in their own half, the Titans should have every chance to control this game environment on the ground, which is exactly what they would prefer to do. Rudolph should help them in that endeavor.
Pollard continues to play through an ankle injury he has dealt with for the previous two games, following the same DNP-DNP-limited-playing practice this week as he had the previous two. Tyjae Spears has now been back from injury for three weeks and seen his snap rate (25%, 38%, 56%) and opportunity count (one, eight, 11) increase in each game, likely indicating he has put the numerous injuries he experienced during the middle of the season in the past. Pollard still saw 23 and 17 opportunities the previous two games while fighting through the ankle injury and with Spears ramping up, meaning this is still Pollard’s backfield with Spears in a change-of-pace role, with Pollard likeliest to see a slight bump in opportunities in neutral-to-positive game environments. The matchup against the Colts is middling on paper against a defense ceding 1.87 yards before contact per attempt, 4.5 yards per carry (19th), and 21.9 fantasy points per game (eighth most) to opposing backfields.
Westbrook-Ikhine suddenly finds himself playing the most offensive snaps for an NFL franchise having out-snapped Ridley in seven of the previous eight games. He popped up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury sustained in the team’s Week 15 loss to the Bengals, joined by slot man Boyd as pass catchers for the Titans who have yet to practice this week. As things currently stand, only Bryce Oliver (who?), Mason Kinsey (who?), and Jha’Quan Jackson are on the active roster behind the top three, and Jackson has been a healthy inactive the previous two weeks. This could quickly devolve into a “Calvin Ridley and nobody else” situation, so we’ll be tracking this situation as the weekend nears. The Colts continue to play a ton of zone and rank third in Cover-3 utilization rate, and Ridley has been downright terrible against Cover-3 this season (0.23 FP/RR, laughably high 20.7-yard aDOT, 0.21 TPRR, and low 19.2% target rate), so it might not matter.
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