Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The most notable injury for the Commanders is TE Zach Ertz who is recovering from a concussion and missed practice on Wednesday.
- The most notable injury for the Eagles is OG Landon Dickerson who was off to the side on Wednesday, but it’s unclear if it was rest or injury related.
- The Eagles are dead last in pass rate over expectation (PROE). Jalen Hurts contributes heavily with his legs but the lack of passing volume has limited his ceiling.
- The Eagles tried to keep A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith happy last week but are likely to return to their run heavy ways against the Commanders.
- Saquon Barkley doesn’t get much passing game work and never scores short yardage touchdowns. Those factors make him more boom or bust than most players in his price range, but when he booms, he explodes.
- Jayden Daniels has been the primary reason for the Commanders turnaround, but he tends to beat up on bad defenses and struggle against good ones, and the Eagles defense is good one.
- Terry McLaurin is having a career year after finally getting competent QB play, but he hasn’t shown a 30 DK point ceiling and scored 2 DK points against the Eagles in their last matchup.
- Brian Robinson was used as a workhorse without Austin Ekeler (73% of the snaps) but he didn’t do much with them against the Saints weak run defense.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The 12-2 Eagles come into Week 16 riding high after a win over the Steelers that was never in doubt. The Eagles have the second-best record in the NFL and are tied for the best record in the NFC after the Lions lost a 90-point barnburner against the Bills. If the season were to end today, the Eagles would get the number two seed on tiebreakers, but they have a decidedly easier schedule in their last three games than either Detroit or Minnesota, who still have another game against each other on the horizon. The Eagles will clinch the division with a win this week, and only must face the lackluster Cowboys/Giants to finish the season, meaning they are probably the favorite for the top seed in the NFC if they can get past the Commanders. The Eagles have a lot riding on this game, but so do the Commanders who are trying to hold onto the final wild card spot. This is a division game, on the road, and even though on paper the Eagles are the superior team, this will be anything but an easy win.
The Commanders defense has been hurt on the ground (26th in DVOA) and they are not much better against the pass (24th in DVOA). The Commanders have been generally bad on defense (25th in overall DVOA) and are winning games on offense (7th in total points scored). The Eagles have been extremely run heavy (32nd in PROE) and play at a below average pace (21st in seconds per play). The Eagles did throw 32 times last week, which is a lot for them in a game they controlled, but don’t let that fool you into thinking their philosophy has changed. A.J. Brown complained that they weren’t throwing enough, and in Nick Sirianni’s locker room speech after the win he essentially said in more colorful language, “We can throw the ball too.” Last week was to make Brown happy, and it shouldn’t be an indicator that the Eagles are going to change anything about what got them to 12-2. It makes sense to be extremely run heavy when you have the best O-line (ranked number 1 by PFF) and two dynamic runners in Saquon Barkley/Jalen Hurts. LG Landon Dickerson suffered a knee injury last week, and his status is currently unclear, but even if he were to miss time, the Eagles O-line is still one of the premier units in the league. They’ll need to be against a strong Commanders pass rush (6th in sack percentage). Expect the Eagles to use their typical run-oriented game plan, but with the caveat that they might throw a little more to keep the WRs happy if they think running or passing will lead them to a win.
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