Kickoff Thursday, Dec 19th 8:15pm Eastern
Broncos ( 19.5) at
Chargers ( 22)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
A busy Week 16 begins with the Broncos visiting the Chargers for a 42 point game with Los Angeles favored by 3 (or 2.5, depending on where you look). Vegas is expecting something low scoring because both of these teams boast solid defenses, but I will just note that the Broncos have scored 29 or more points in four straight games (the Colts helped quite a bit last week), and while the Chargers have struggled offensively of late since J.K. Dobbins was injured, they still have talented pieces on offense. I don’t bet totals but if I did, I’d take the over on this one.
LOS ANGELES
On the Chargers side, Gus Edwards played 52% of the snaps the first week after Dobbins was hurt, then 43%, then 27% last week. Now, last week they were blown out by the Bucs so it’s not surprising that Edwards didn’t see much run as a 2-down back with very little pass catching role, but the Chargers were actually leading at halftime and Edwards had 5 carries while Vidal had 2 carries and 3 targets. I could be wrong but I get the feeling that Edwards has very little upside even in ideal game scripts (he also only had 6 and 10 carries against Atlanta in a win and the Chiefs in a close loss in the two prior weeks). He’s a plodder with almost no explosiveness going up against one of the league’s top run defenses (Denver is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per carry) with about the only bright spot that the Broncos may be missing two defensive linemen. I’m not sure that’s enough to make him attractive even at $7k, something like 40 yards and a touchdown may not be enough. I’m a pass, even though I love playing lower-owned “bad” running backs in Showdown, as I just don’t see a path to him getting the kind of volume needed to put up a ceiling game. I think you’d need two touchdowns which just feels super fluky. Straight up I’d prefer Vidal who has seen his snaps go 26% → 53% → 67% since the Dobbins injury and who saw some passing game involvement which is especially playable on DK, but really both are pretty shaky options.
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The passing game is where we should expect the Chargers to have more luck. Ladd McConkey has had an outstanding rookie season with 63 receptions for 873 yards and 5 scores, and while Denver’s defense is outstanding overall they struggle against the slot as their nickel corner has given up more yards, receptions, and YAC than any other nickel corner in the NFL. We took an over on Ladd in the props market and are extremely bullish on him in this game. Look, it’s not exactly revolutionary to be high on a team’s best pass catcher, but in this case, the stars are somewhat aligning for the best pass catcher also having the best matchup while everyone else is in much more difficult spots. Speaking of difficult, Quentin Johnston is likely to be running most of his routes against standout cornerback Patrick Surtain. Johnston is also, somewhat puzzlingly, priced up to his highest Showdown salary of the season. He’s shown a ceiling on a couple of occasions so he certainly belongs in player pools, but I much prefer Ladd at not that different of a salary. Easy call. Josh Palmer has had a disappointing season after being drafted as the Chargers WR1 coming into the year but he only has 53 targets in 13 games (yikes). He’s also priced up a bit and it’s difficult to see him finding a ceiling for $6,400. He really only has two games all season that you might be happy with at his salary, and they’re only decent, not great (i.e. he could match his best game of the season and still not be a lock to be in winning tournament lineups). Johnston has at least shown more ceiling, so I prefer him of the pair, but I’m not super excited about either of the LA perimeter wideouts. Behind these guys D.J. Chark, Derius Davis, and (somehow) Laviska Shenault are mixing in for just a few snaps here and there. None of these guys are strong options but Chark has a history as a deep threat while Laviska has always been known as a “dangerous with the ball in his hands” guy, so they can be included in MME pools as longshot dart throws who at least have some semblance of ceiling.
At tight end, Will Dissly is listed as questionable but after being tagged as being “week to week” it’s tough to see him playing on a short turnaround after not having practiced at all since his injury. I’ll assume he’s out, which keeps Stone Smartt in a big role. Smartt played 67% of the snaps last week and caught 5 of 6 targets. He’s a pretty talented pass catching tight end (clearly the best on the roster), and at his below-the-kickers price, he’s my second favorite Chargers pass catcher. Against a Denver defense that is leading the league in sacks per game, there’s a strong chance we see a lot of short passing from the Chargers, which really benefits Ladd and Smartt (and possibly Vidal as well if he can play well in pass protection). Backup TEs Tucker Fisk and Eric Tomlinson can be used in MME lineups as punt options.
(Wednesday morning update): Hayden Hurst practiced in full this week and the Chargers opened his window to return from injured reserve. Hurst was playing meaningful snaps for the first four weeks of the season, then basically vanished. He had some very low snap share games as well as a couple of healthy scratches before being placed on IR. Will Dissly basically iced him before he got injured. If he’s active (which isn’t a guarantee), it’s unclear what kind of role he’ll step into. He may play ahead of Smartt, he may play behind him, or he may barely play at all. My best guess here is the Chargers are not exactly enamored of Hurst given that they benched him earlier in the season, and so I think Smartt probably plays ahead of him, but I could be wrong. I would not play the two of them together on the same roster.
DENVER
Kickoff Saturday, Dec 21st 1:00pm Eastern
Texans ( 19.75) at
Chiefs ( 22.75)
SLATE Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Texans WR John Metchie (shoulder) and TE Cade Stover (illness) have yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it likely we see more of TE Irv Smith and WRs Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson against the Chiefs.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has practiced in full in each session this week after departing the team’s Week 15 victory over the Browns early.
- WR Hollywood Brown (shoulder) has practiced in full in each session this week and appears set to make his regular-season debut for the Chiefs.
- Steelers WR George Pickens is still not practicing due to his hamstring issue, likely indicating another missed game against the Ravens unless he can get on the practice field Thursday.
- Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) has yet to practice this week and is unlikely to play on a short week. WR Rashod Bateman was added to the injury report Wednesday as a limited participant with a foot injury. RB Justice Hill missed Wednesday’s session for personal reasons.
- This slate is extremely interesting from a theoretical sense. The first game has a narrower range of outcomes but clearer paths to volume while the second game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes but lower certainty regarding where the production is likeliest to flow.
HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
We kept waiting to see improvements from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s play-calling tendencies, dating all the way back to last season – and it just hasn’t materialized yet. The individual structure of the unique plays is elite man, but you simply cannot be better than average in this league unless or until you stop placing your team in so many long down-and-distance situations. The magic of C.J. Stroud did a lot to overcome those tendencies last season and early this year, something that has truly been a struggle during the second half of the 2024 season. It’s an interesting dynamic to discuss, as the Texans are averaging more points per game than they were a season ago (23.4 versus 22.7 in 2023). Yet, the weekly upside has largely been lacking. The Texans scored 30 or more points five times last season and have done so just twice this year. Finally, Stroud has not attempted more than 34 passes in a game since Week 8 against the Colts, which highlights a more nuanced offensive approach now that they have a viable running back in Joe Mixon.
A case can be made that Mixon has the greatest role of any running back in the league. He ranks second in opportunity share (84.6%), fifth in red-zone opportunities while missing three games, and his 23.9 opportunities per game ranks first (yes, ahead of Saquon Barkley), all while facing the highest number of average defenders in the box in the league. That last bit is the most worrisome as Slowik’s play-calling tendencies have kept the offense predictable, allowing their opponents to diagnose the run at great frequency while making efficiency more difficult to come by for Mixon and the run game. That should combine with a matchup against one of the top run defenses in the league to a range of outcomes with an elevated floor and fewer paths to true ceiling. The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.67), 3.9 yards per carry (fourth), and the fewest fantasy points per game (13.6) to opposing backfields this season.
Week 15 was the first time we’ve seen Nico Collins’ snap rate and route-participation rate return to his pre-injury levels, which makes sense with the team coming out of its Week 14 bye. Stover’s absence last week forced the Texans to emphasize Dalton Schultz, who has seen his four highest snap-rate games in contests where the team had only two healthy tight ends, a situation they appear to be in again on Saturday. The offense has also utilized 12-personel at increased rates of late, which has capped the snap rates of Tank Dell and the tertiary pass-catching options (just 68% and 62% snap rates for Dell over the previous two games). The pure matchup through the air is best for Schultz against the inside-funnel Kansas City defense, and he should be on the field for almost every offensive snap considering the state of the team, making him an interesting bet on a short slate.
And then there’s Collins, a wide receiver I currently have as a top-five player in the league. But, his weekly volume has come down of late as the offense adapts to a more run-balanced nature, seeing double-digit targets in just one of four games post-injury after seeing 10 targets or more in three of his four fully healthy games to start the season. The per-target upside remains intact, but much of the damage Collins does is of the downfield variety, an area of the field the Chiefs look to take away. Even so, Collins clearly has the highest raw ceiling at the position on the slate.
How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Saturday, Dec 21st 4:30pm Eastern
Steelers ( 18.75) at
Ravens ( 25.75)
SLATE Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Texans WR John Metchie (shoulder) and TE Cade Stover (illness) have yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it likely we see more of TE Irv Smith and WRs Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson against the Chiefs.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has practiced in full in each session this week after departing the team’s Week 15 victory over the Browns early.
- WR Hollywood Brown (shoulder) has practiced in full in each session this week and appears set to make his regular-season debut for the Chiefs.
- Steelers WR George Pickens is still not practicing due to his hamstring issue, likely indicating another missed game against the Ravens unless he can get on the practice field Thursday.
- Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) has yet to practice this week and is unlikely to play on a short week. WR Rashod Bateman was added to the injury report Wednesday as a limited participant with a foot injury. RB Justice Hill missed Wednesday’s session for personal reasons.
- This slate is extremely interesting from a theoretical sense. The first game has a narrower range of outcomes but clearer paths to volume while the second game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes but lower certainty regarding where the production is likeliest to flow.
HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Steelers have been a bit unsettled offensively with their top play maker out of action the previous two games. Pickens popped up with the dreaded wide receiver hamstring injury two weeks ago and has yet to practice with the ailment, likely indicating he is trending towards his third consecutive absence against the Ravens. Pittsburgh has held a neutral-to-negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) in all but one game this season (their Week 13 shootout with the Bengals), notably able to grind out an 18-16 victory over these Ravens back in Week 11 on the leg of six Chris Boswell field goals. But their offense has changed gears with Russell Wilson under center, continuing to operate as a run-first unit but layering in much more intermediate-to-deep passing leveraged off the run, something they were unable to fully harness with Justin Fields under center earlier in the season. The problem is those downfield looks have been far less effective and less frequent with Pickens off the field, making the offense more one-dimensional in the process. And since we don’t expect the Steelers to largely alter their game plan coming into Week 16, and since the Ravens continue to operate as a true pass-funnel defense while allowing the fewest rush yards per game, expect the Pittsburgh game plan to revolve around their defense and what they can do to limit the electric Lamar Jackson on the other side.
The blueprint of this backfield has remained consistent throughout the season. Najee Harris is the “starter” and sees a higher snap rate and opportunity share in positive game script while Jaylen Warren is the “change of pace” and clear passing down option and sees a higher snap rate and opportunity share in negative game script. Cordarrelle Patterson has played between 10% and 15% of the offensive snaps in every game since the team’s Week 9 bye. The matchup on the ground is about as bad as it gets against a Baltimore defense holding opposing backfields to the fewest rush yards per game (80.7), the fewest yards per rush attempt (3.5), and just 1.64 yards before contact per attempt (sixth). The team managed just 3.6 yards per carry against the Ravens the last time these two franchises met. Given the state of the pffense with Pickens likely out, I expect the Steelers to start with a run-focused approach, likely maintaining that stance for as long as the game remains close.
The snap rates of the remaining pass catchers with Pickens off the field over the previous two games has been confusing, at best, with Van Jefferson and Pat Freiermuth the only two players to see consistent snaps and route participations in each game. Calvin Austin played on just 35% of the team’s snaps in Week 14 before jumping up to an 81% snap rate in Week 15, with tight ends Darnell Washington, MyCole Pruitt, and even Connor Heyward mixing in on various packages. Wide receivers Scotty Miller, Mike Williams, and Ben Skowronek continue to work in via package roles, with all three typically good for 10-20 offensive snaps on a given week. Considering Freiermuth has not seen more than seven targets in a game this season and has seen four or fewer targets in 10 contests, that effectively leaves only Jefferson and Austin as players with bankable roles, and even then, Austin has not seen more than six targets while Jefferson has not seen more than five targets in a game this year. The matchup through the air is clearly optimal, but there is something to be said for the fact the Steelers are less likely to chuck the football around the yard unless otherwise forced and the likely absence of Pickens removes the only player on the offense that has a proven track record of commanding targets at a meaningful rate.
How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Browns ( 18.25) at
Bengals ( 28.25)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Cleveland is making a change at quarterback, giving second year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson the starting job.
- Browns RB Nick Chubb broke his foot last week and is done for the season, leaving Jerome Ford in the feature back role.
- Cincinnati can still make the playoffs if they win their three remaining games.
- Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase continue to have career years and have a great matchup against a Browns defense that has been susceptible to big plays.
- Cleveland’s offense once again awaits the status of WR Cedric Tillman and TE David Njoku, who are battling injuries.
How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::
While we all loved the Jameis Winston experience, the Browns and head coach Kevin Stefanski have seen enough. While we don’t know what they will do with the albatross contract of QB Deshaun Watson, the possibility of them sticking with Winston as their starter next year seems to have slipped away like one of the many turnovers he had in his stint as the QB1. After an exciting first start in place of Watson with a comeback victory over the depleted secondary of the Ravens, the Browns have been 1-5 since and the only win was the Thursday night “blizzard game” against the Steelers. Winston turned the ball over 10 times in the last four games and the team finally had enough.
The Browns rank 6th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they let Watson throw at a high rate and did not have Nick Chubb to start the season, and then rode Winston’s arm and an underrated group of pass catchers since the QB change. The team will now turn to second year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, which may alter their approach. Their run rate had already increased in recent weeks as they tried to cut back on Winston’s turnovers, as they rank 15th in PROE over their last four games and have actually thrown the ball at a slightly below expected rate. DTR started three games last season and completed just over 50% of his passes while averaging under four yards per pass attempt (YPA). For context, the worst NFL QB in 2023 averaged 5.1 YPA. DTR did add over 20 rushing yards in each of his starts, but that wasn’t worth much as the team scored 25 total points in his three starts.
This week’s matchup against the Bengals, who rank 27th in run defense DVOA and 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, should allow Cleveland to lean more on their running game, despite the absence of Chubb, who broke his foot and ended his season last week. Jerome Ford steps into the lead back role once again and had a long run against the Chiefs last week, but struggled to show consistency and/or efficiency during his stint at the top of the depth chart early in the season. D’Onta Foreman may mix in for a few carries and Pierre Strong Jr. may play on some passing downs.
All things considered, the Browns likeliest path to a victory against the high flying Bengals likely comes from slowing the game down, their defense stepping up, and controlling the tempo. The last thing they will want is a shootout between DTR and Joe Burrow. Wide receiver Cedric Tillman is practicing on a limited basis, as he did last week, but has yet to be cleared to return from his concussion while tight end David Njoku has not yet practiced and seems destined for another week being inactive. The loss of those two key weapons further confirms the likelihood of Cleveland approaching this game conservatively.
How Cincinatti Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Giants ( 16.5) at
Falcons ( 26)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Falcons remain relatively healthy for this stage of the season but they did have two role players limited Thursday in tight ends Ross Dwelley (ankle) and Charlie Woerner (quad).
- The Giants had 21 (!!!) players on the injury report Thursday, most notably LBs Brian Burns (DNP, ankle/neck) and Bobby Okereke (DNP, back), QBs Tommy DeVito (limited, concussion) and Drew Lock (full, heel/elbow), RB Tyrone Tracy (limited, ankle), and WR Malik Nabers (full, knee/foot).
- These two teams likely represent the two teams with the worst quarterback situations in the league at present. Drew Lock appears set to start for the Giants while Michael Penix makes his first professional start for the fading Falcons.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The Giants have entered full-on evaluation mode with their season long lost, ranking near the middle of the pack in pass rate over expectation over the previous four weeks of play (15th). Losers of nine straight, the Giants have utilized three quarterbacks during the previous month of play while attempting (from most recent) 37 passes against the Ravens, 49 passes against the Saints, 32 passes against the Cowboys, and 32 passes against the Buccaneers. It is clear they would prefer to not have to sling the football around the yard based on their PROE data, but consistently negative game environments have placed them in that position more frequently than not.
Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy continues to serve as the “lead back plus” in this offense but has been the victim of increasingly negative game environments, seeing more than a modest 14 opportunities just once in the previous four games (his 10-target game against the Saints in which Giants quarterbacks combined to attempt 49 passes). He has seen his salary trickle down during that stretch but it took the 10 targets to have him sniff a 4x salary multiplier in that span. Devin Singletary remains on hand to soak up change of pace opportunities. The Falcons have functioned as a demi-pass-funnel matchup while allowing 1.80 yards before contact per attempt, 4.3 yards per carry, and 17.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Wan’Dale Robinson has 111 targets this season – lolz. I’m not sure if any receiver has done less with more than 100 targets in recent memory. Robinson’s season-high in DK points stands at 18.1, while seeing eight or more targets in nine of 14 games. That is impressive(ly bad). He has hit double-digit fantasy points once in his last nine games. Darius Slayton has not seen more than six targets in the previous five games. No Giants tight end has seen more than seven targets all season. That effectively leaves rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers as the only player capable of returning a usable fantasy score through the air outside of fluky variance (we’ve targeted that fluky variance once or twice this season through Slayton, but man, this quarterback situation is currently the worst in the league – okay, maybe the Falcons would have something to say about that). Nabers has seen seven or more targets in every game as a professional, seeing double-digit targets in nine of 12 healthy games. And yet, Week 15 against the Ravens was the first time since before he got injured that he scored more than 15.3 DK points (Week 4).
How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Cards ( 26.25) at
Panthers ( 20.75)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Carolina’s run defense continues to be one of the worst in the league, surrendering season-best performances to several players/teams.
- Panthers QB Bryce Young came back down to earth with a poor performance against the Cowboys after several good games.
- Carolina RB Chuba Hubbard played over 90% of the snaps once again with Jonathon Brooks on IR.
- Arizona is still in the hunt to win the NFC West if they can win their three remaining games.
How Arizona Will Try To Win ::
Arizona enters this week a game behind the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West. Following this game, the Cardinals will face the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 17 before a showdown with the 49ers in Week 18. San Francisco will almost certainly be eliminated from contention by the last week and has been ravaged by major injuries this year. There is a real chance that the 49ers will shut down more key players for that final week if/when they are mathematically eliminated. All of this is to say that if Arizona doesn’t mess things up this week against the lowly Panthers, a win next week over the Rams may put them in position to win the division. They lost both matchups against the Seahawks, meaning Seattle owns the tiebreaker there, but Seattle plays the Vikings this week and the Rams in Week 18. So the path for Arizona is clear – win out and have the Seahawks lose two of their last three games, which there is a strong chance of.
The Cardinals offense is based primarily around their running game as a means of sustaining drives and opening things up. The Arizona offense has struggled in games where they have been unable to run the ball effectively all season. This week they face a Carolina defense that is last or near last in the league against the run in almost every category. The Panthers have allowed opposing RB1s to average 142 rushing yards over the last three weeks. The Cardinals lost backup RB Emari Demercado for the season a couple of weeks ago and RB Trey Benson left last week’s game with an ankle injury and has yet to practice this week. This sets up a game where veteran workhorse James Conner should see a massive workload and be highly efficient with it.
As mentioned before, the Cardinals offense as a whole is much more effective when they can run the ball. Considering the strong likelihood of success on the ground, the whole offense’s expectations are raised for this week. There is no doubt the Cardinals will lean heavily on the run, but their success opens up play action opportunities and the potential for some downfield shots. Arizona tight end Trey McBride has set the NFL record for most receptions without a touchdown at 87, but has a matchup this week with Carolina’s defense which is ranked 30th in the NFL in DVOA against TEs. McBride has seen double digit targets in four straight games and is a strong bet to make it five this week while ending his touchdown drought. Likewise, perimeter WR Marvin Harrison Jr. has struggled with consistency this season but this profiles as a game where he could come to life. Harrison is a strong candidate to end the season with a bang against the Panthers and Rams shaky secondaries and then potentially 49ers backups.
How Carolina Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Lions ( 27.25) at
Bears ( 20.25)
GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Both Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow have yet to practice, as of Thursday. Both are a large part of how the Detroit offensive line has been so dominant this season.
- Lions RB David Montgomery is done for the season with a knee injury, leaving Jahmyr Gibbs to serve as the unquestioned lead back.
- The Lions now have 19 players missing on the defensive side of the ball alone.
- Bears RB Roschon Johnson has practiced in full in both sessions this week as he works his way through the league’s concussion protocol. It appears likely he returns to action against the Lions.
HOW DETROIT WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Lions have suffered through a ridiculous number of injuries to their defense this season, with 19 players that started the season in the team’s initial depth chart now out of action. They had, up until recently, avoided the same bad fortunes on the offensive side of the ball, until Montgomery was lost for the season and two members of their stellar offensive line got hurt. The left interior of an offensive line ranked second in rush grade and seventh in pass grade is now hurt, with both center Frank Ragnow (knee) and left guard Graham Glasgow (knee) yet to practice this week, as of Thursday. Dan Skipper is listed as a tackle on the team’s depth chart but he’s really more akin to the sixth man on this offensive line, capable of playing all five positions at an above-average level. Those are important aspects of this matchup, as Jared Goff has historically been much better when kept clean as compared to when under pressure, in addition to the clear downgrade for the run game. The truth of the matter is this Lions team has largely been able to win games in any way they’ve chosen this season, with a matchup against the clear run-funnel nature of the Bears likely to guide their hands.
The Lions have yet to play a game this season without both Gibbs and Montgomery, but they did play three games early in the 2023 season without Montgomery. In those three games, Gibbs held snap rates of 60%, 87%, and 70% while handling opportunity counts of 19, 21, and 31. Also remember, those were his third, fifth, and sixth professional games. Montgomery saw snap shares of 71% in the game Gibbs got hurt in Week 4 of 2023 and 75% in the next game without Gibbs in Week 5. The stage certainly appears to be set for Gibbs to see a massive workload considering this team is currently fighting to hold onto their top seed in the NFC (they currently hold tie-breakers over the Vikings for head-to-head record – they play once more this season – and the Eagles for best winning percentage in conference games), despite early-week rumblings from head coach Dan Campbell saying they need to be smart with Gibbs in the absence of Montgomery. The matchup on the ground is borderline elite against a Bears defense allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt (2.52), 4.7 yards per carry (27th), and 22.7 fantasy points per game (fourth most) to opposing backfields this season.
The Lions average just 32.3 pass attempts per game this season and the emergence of Jameson Williams has largely made consistent volume hard to come by, but every now and then Amon-Ra St. Brown will remind us how elite he really is. St. Brown has now put up 40 or more DK points twice this season after his eruption against the Bills, with one instance coming in a blowout win where Goff attempted just 29 passes and the other coming in that shootout in Week 15 against the Bills where Goff threw the football 59 times. Goff also hit for 37.58 DK points or more both times St. Brown broke the slate. Those two games also serve as the only two games in which Goff threw more than three touchdowns this season. All of that is meant to reinforce that this team can put pressure on opposing defenses in so many different ways and always has “break the slate upside” in their passing game, regardless of matchup or expected game environment. The emergence of Williams has mostly taken away from Sam LaPorta, with the second-year tight end going over six targets just twice all season, both of which have occurred in the last two games. The offense has functioned via elevated 12-personnel rates after moving on from fullback Jason Cabinda this offseason, with Brock Wright typically seeing 50-60% of the offensive snaps in neutral-to-positive game environments, leaving WR3 Tim Patrick in the 50-80% snap rate range, dependent on game environment.
How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Titans ( 19.25) at
Colts ( 23.25)
GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) continues his trend of sitting out practices on Wednesday and Thursday into Week 16. He has done so in each of the previous two weeks while ultimately logging a limited sessions on Friday before being active come Sunday.
- Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) has not practiced this week, as of Thursday.
- Both teams appear likely to be without their starting kicker.
- Colts WR Alec Pierce has not practiced this week as he deals with a concussion, likely indicating he will be unable to clear concussion protocol and ultimately be inactive come Sunday.
- Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (ankle) has yet to practice this week with a new injury sustained in Week 15.
- Titans will start QB Mason Rudolph under center, sending Will Levis to the bench.
HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Quarterback Will Levis returned from injury in Week 10. Since that time, the Titans ranks 23rd in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging just 27 pass attempts and 19 points per game. They are now turning to Mason Rudolph under center and I have to think those run-heavy ways continue. This is a run-first team that layers in deep passing behind it, built to take advantage of overzealous safeties that bite on play action. The Titans have been horrendous in the field-position battle, surrendering the worst opponent starting field position in the league in game started by Levis this season, something that should help to explain how they rank first in pass yards allowed per game and second in total yards allowed per game but bottom five in points allowed per game. If Rudolph can minimize turnovers and the team can keep out of long down-and-distance situations in their own half, the Titans should have every chance to control this game environment on the ground, which is exactly what they would prefer to do. Rudolph should help them in that endeavor.
Pollard continues to play through an ankle injury he has dealt with for the previous two games, following the same DNP-DNP-limited-playing practice this week as he had the previous two. Tyjae Spears has now been back from injury for three weeks and seen his snap rate (25%, 38%, 56%) and opportunity count (one, eight, 11) increase in each game, likely indicating he has put the numerous injuries he experienced during the middle of the season in the past. Pollard still saw 23 and 17 opportunities the previous two games while fighting through the ankle injury and with Spears ramping up, meaning this is still Pollard’s backfield with Spears in a change-of-pace role, with Pollard likeliest to see a slight bump in opportunities in neutral-to-positive game environments. The matchup against the Colts is middling on paper against a defense ceding 1.87 yards before contact per attempt, 4.5 yards per carry (19th), and 21.9 fantasy points per game (eighth most) to opposing backfields.
Westbrook-Ikhine suddenly finds himself playing the most offensive snaps for an NFL franchise having out-snapped Ridley in seven of the previous eight games. He popped up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury sustained in the team’s Week 15 loss to the Bengals, joined by slot man Boyd as pass catchers for the Titans who have yet to practice this week. As things currently stand, only Bryce Oliver (who?), Mason Kinsey (who?), and Jha’Quan Jackson are on the active roster behind the top three, and Jackson has been a healthy inactive the previous two weeks. This could quickly devolve into a “Calvin Ridley and nobody else” situation, so we’ll be tracking this situation as the weekend nears. The Colts continue to play a ton of zone and rank third in Cover-3 utilization rate, and Ridley has been downright terrible against Cover-3 this season (0.23 FP/RR, laughably high 20.7-yard aDOT, 0.21 TPRR, and low 19.2% target rate), so it might not matter.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Rams ( 25) at
Jets ( 22)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Both teams are relatively healthy heading into Week 16.
- Rams TE Tyler Higbee was added to the team’s injury report Thursday with knee and illness designations. Higbee was activated from injured reserve Tuesday, the final day he was eligible and had managed seven consecutive full practices prior to missing Thursday with an illness.
- Jets RBs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis were both limited on Wednesday and Thursday this week with back ailments.
- The Rams now control their playoff destiny, currently sitting atop the NFC West after winning four of their last five games, including wins over the 49ers and Bills.
How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams have played their way into the top spot in the NFC West, currently sitting at an 8-6 record that is tied with the Seahawks. They hold the tie-breaker over Seattle due to head-to-head record and play them in Week 18, but they likely need to continue stringing together wins to find their way into the postseason. Winners of four of their last five games, the blueprint for success have remained fairly consistent throughout the season. They want to start in a run-balance offensive approach before making in-game adjustments, with head coach Sean McVay one of the best in-game managers in the league. That has led to modest pass volume in four of their last five games, with quarterback Matthew Stafford attempting 30 passes or less in all four wins.
Kyren Williams continues to operate as a true workhorse back, seeing a 79% snap rate or higher in all but one game this season (a Week 13 win over the Saints where he was benched to start following a two-fumble game against the Eagles). But the last two games have seen him reclaim a workhorse role, having been fed 29 carries and two targets in each game. Williams has just four games with more than three targets all season, largely keeping him in the yardage-and-touchdown discussion despite the massive workload. It then makes sense how he has not been as fantasy friendly this season considering he has yet to go over 100 yards and score multiple touchdowns, with his only game all year hitting a 4x multiplier his Week 16 salary coming all the way back in Week 3 against the 49ers when he scored three times (twice on the ground and once through the air). Blake Corum is on hand to soak up any change of pace opportunities required. The Jets have performed extremely well against the run this season, holding opponents to 1.48 yards before contact per attempt (third), 4.1 yards per carry (sixth), and 18.5 fantasy points per game (11th).
Puka Nacua has developed into the true alpha through the air for this offense, scoring 17.3 DK points or more in every game this season in which he has seen 35% or more of the team’s offensive snaps. He has seen eight targets or more in all of those games, with 13 or more in three of seven games in which he played more than 35% of the offensive snaps. Touchdowns have been harder to come by considering Stafford has thrown just 19 scores this season, and the presence of elite red zone threat Cooper Kupp has left Puka with only four scores. Kupp has also seen double-digit targets in three of seven games since Week 8 while scoring five times in that span, also famously seeing 21 targets in Week 1 following the departure of Nacua. Kupp saw his salary drop massively following a zero-catch game against the 49ers in Week 15 and is now at his cheapest price tag of the season at just $6,500. Demarcus Robinson continues to fill the primary WR3 role but has not seen more than five targets since Week 9. We’ll have to wait and see how Tyler Higbee is listed on the team’s Friday injury report after he was activated from injured reserve Tuesday but missed Thursday with an illness. The Jets have largely been solid against the pass this season but have slipped in recent weeks, allowing 263.7 pass yards per game over their last three. For comparison, the Jaguars rank dead last in pass yards per game allowed at 264.3. Only the Bengals, Bills, and Broncos have allowed more pass yards per game over their last three games.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 1:00pm Eastern
Eagles ( 25.5) at
WFT ( 21.5)
Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- The most notable injury for the Commanders is TE Zach Ertz who is recovering from a concussion and missed practice on Wednesday.
- The most notable injury for the Eagles is OG Landon Dickerson who was off to the side on Wednesday, but it’s unclear if it was rest or injury related.
- The Eagles are dead last in pass rate over expectation (PROE). Jalen Hurts contributes heavily with his legs but the lack of passing volume has limited his ceiling.
- The Eagles tried to keep A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith happy last week but are likely to return to their run heavy ways against the Commanders.
- Saquon Barkley doesn’t get much passing game work and never scores short yardage touchdowns. Those factors make him more boom or bust than most players in his price range, but when he booms, he explodes.
- Jayden Daniels has been the primary reason for the Commanders turnaround, but he tends to beat up on bad defenses and struggle against good ones, and the Eagles defense is good one.
- Terry McLaurin is having a career year after finally getting competent QB play, but he hasn’t shown a 30 DK point ceiling and scored 2 DK points against the Eagles in their last matchup.
- Brian Robinson was used as a workhorse without Austin Ekeler (73% of the snaps) but he didn’t do much with them against the Saints weak run defense.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The 12-2 Eagles come into Week 16 riding high after a win over the Steelers that was never in doubt. The Eagles have the second-best record in the NFL and are tied for the best record in the NFC after the Lions lost a 90-point barnburner against the Bills. If the season were to end today, the Eagles would get the number two seed on tiebreakers, but they have a decidedly easier schedule in their last three games than either Detroit or Minnesota, who still have another game against each other on the horizon. The Eagles will clinch the division with a win this week, and only must face the lackluster Cowboys/Giants to finish the season, meaning they are probably the favorite for the top seed in the NFC if they can get past the Commanders. The Eagles have a lot riding on this game, but so do the Commanders who are trying to hold onto the final wild card spot. This is a division game, on the road, and even though on paper the Eagles are the superior team, this will be anything but an easy win.
The Commanders defense has been hurt on the ground (26th in DVOA) and they are not much better against the pass (24th in DVOA). The Commanders have been generally bad on defense (25th in overall DVOA) and are winning games on offense (7th in total points scored). The Eagles have been extremely run heavy (32nd in PROE) and play at a below average pace (21st in seconds per play). The Eagles did throw 32 times last week, which is a lot for them in a game they controlled, but don’t let that fool you into thinking their philosophy has changed. A.J. Brown complained that they weren’t throwing enough, and in Nick Sirianni’s locker room speech after the win he essentially said in more colorful language, “We can throw the ball too.” Last week was to make Brown happy, and it shouldn’t be an indicator that the Eagles are going to change anything about what got them to 12-2. It makes sense to be extremely run heavy when you have the best O-line (ranked number 1 by PFF) and two dynamic runners in Saquon Barkley/Jalen Hurts. LG Landon Dickerson suffered a knee injury last week, and his status is currently unclear, but even if he were to miss time, the Eagles O-line is still one of the premier units in the league. They’ll need to be against a strong Commanders pass rush (6th in sack percentage). Expect the Eagles to use their typical run-oriented game plan, but with the caveat that they might throw a little more to keep the WRs happy if they think running or passing will lead them to a win.
How washington Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 4:05pm Eastern
Vikings ( 22.75) at
Hawks ( 20.25)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Minnesota is tied for the lead in the NFC along with the Lions and Eagles at a 12-2 record.
- The Vikings finish the season with three consecutive games (starting this week) against teams with records over .500 (Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit).
- Seattle QB Geno Smith had an injury scare to his right knee in last Sunday night’s loss to the Packers, but practiced fully on Wednesday and should be good to go.
- Minnesota is one of the top three defenses in the league against both the run and the pass.
- The Seahawks are 1-5 in their last six home games.
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
Minnesota’s win on Monday night over the Bears put them in a tie with the Lions at the top of the NFC North, and while they currently lose the tiebreaker, a Week 18 showdown in Minnesota with the Lions will likely be what ultimately decides the division, and potentially the NFC’s top seed. Minnesota’s defense has been among the best in the league this season as defensive coordinator Brian Flores consistently brings pressure and confuses opponents. Meanwhile, the passing game has been efficient and explosive when necessary. Minnesota’s final three games are against teams with a combined 30-12 record so the work is far from finished.
The Vikings rank 3rd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have actually increased that rate in recent weeks, throwing the ball 3.3% over expected for the season but 6.4% over expected during the last four weeks. The Vikings backfield is led by Aaron Jones and he is backed up by Cam Akers. Both have been solid in their opportunities this season, especially in stronger matchups. The Seahawks run defense is a neutral to slightly negative matchup for opposing running games so we can expect Minnesota to need success through the air to continue their recent string of strong offensive output (they have averaged over 31 points per game over the last four weeks). Seattle’s defense plays a mix of man and zone coverages, with their stronger performance coming in man coverage this season. The problem with that is all pro-WR Justin Jefferson has absolutely obliterated man coverage this year and throughout his career, averaging an astounding 0.74 fantasy points per route run against man coverage in 2024. This means that Seattle will have to decide if they want to rely on the zone coverage that they have had less success with this season or take their chances with Jefferson manned up. The return of tight end TJ Hockenson and the emergence of second year WR Jordan Addison, who is averaging 103 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks and has four touchdowns during that span, makes it much more difficult for opponents to key in on Jefferson. The Vikings trust their defense, but are likely to have enough respect for the Seahawks to stay aggressive deep into this game.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 4:25pm Eastern
Patriots ( 17) at
Bills ( 31)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- New England’s defense is in the bottom three in the league, while Buffalo’s offense is a top-three unit.
- Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has at least 18 fantasy points in six of his nine starts.
- Bills QB Josh Allen is averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks…..as a rusher, not counting his passing stats.
- The lone bright spot of the Patriots defense has been lock-down cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
- The Bills defense is allowing only 17 points per game at home, while the Patriots offense has not scored 20 points in a road game yet this season.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
Does it matter? Sorry if that is too direct, but honestly it may not really matter how the Patriots try to win this game. Their offensive line is bottom-5 in the league, struggling to consistently protect the QB and ranking 24th in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. Early in the season, head coach Jerod Mayo talked about how this team’s priority was going to be to run the ball and stop the run. The problem is they aren’t able to do either. This week’s matchup against the Bills is not going to be one where they are likely to get things going, either. Buffalo has given up a couple of big games to power running teams with strong offensive lines, but the Patriots don’t qualify under that criteria. New England is ranked 32nd out of 32 teams in rushing offense DVOA and is unlikely to move the ball on the ground against a very good defense on the road.
If they can’t run it, can they throw it? Well, not really. The Patriots lack players who can separate and create easy throws while also lacking great “run after catch” or contested catch personnel. Really not a good mix for a team that, as previously discussed, can’t really run the ball. Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt spoke this week about how the Patriots have designed run plays that could utilize rookie QB Drake Maye’s legs, but they are choosing not to use them this year in a season that is already lost as they don’t want to put him in position to take any more hits than necessary. It makes sense but certainly isn’t fun to watch the team’s futile attempts to move the ball. Buffalo has the second lowest blitz rate in the league and does not create a high amount of pressure, but the Patriots offensive line tends to make opponents look better than they are. Buffalo also plays a high rate of zone coverages and does a great job of blanketing the perimeter and deep areas of the field. This should, as usual, lead the Patriots passing game to target their RBs, TEs, and slot maven Demario Douglas on the majority of their passes.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 4:25pm Eastern
Jaguars ( 19.5) at
Raiders ( 22)
GAME Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Jacksonville passing game flowed primarily through the Jaguars’ youth in Week 15, with WR Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Brenton Strange dominating the targets.
- Las Vegas will likely get QB Aidan O’Connell back from his injured knee that kept him out of last week’s loss to the Falcons.
- Raiders rookie TE Brock Bowers needs 15 receptions over his last three games to tie Puka Nacua for the most catches ever for a rookie.
- This is a matchup between two of the seven NFL teams who have won three or fewer games this season.
- Las Vegas has scored over 20 points in a game only once since September.
HOW JACKSONVILLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Jaguars are basically playing out the string at this point, sitting with a 3-11 record and with many of their key players out for the season. Jacksonville has stayed relatively competitive recently despite its record, however, winning only one of the last seven games but with five of those losses in that span coming by a combined 23 points. They did have a wild 52-6 loss to the Lions mixed in there, but Detroit has been one of the top teams in the NFL and that outcome has been an outlier. As a matter of fact, an astounding eight of the Jaguars’ 11 losses have been one-score games. The three blowouts were against the Lions and Bills (two of the top teams in the league) as well as the Bears in an awkward game in London. The grander point here is that Jacksonville’s games have been much closer than one would expect just from looking at the Jaguars’ record.
The Jaguars have a matchup this week against a team that is right near them in the standings, and they should therefore enter the game feeling good about their chances. The Jaguars’ pass rate relative to expectation has dipped over the last four weeks without franchise QB Trevor Lawrence, as the team tries to protect and hide Mac Jones a bit. Due to all of the injuries they have sustained, the main pass catchers have been rookie sensation Thomas and Strange, their second-year tight end. Thomas is one of the more exciting young receivers in the league, while Strange is a physically gifted young tight end who is now in an every-down role and who Jones clearly trusts. The two of them combined for a whopping 26 targets last week on 46 Mac Jones pass attempts, for a massive 57% combined target share. Some other guys are mixing in, but clearly the trust of Jones and the coaching staff is primarily with those two players at this point. The Raiders have PFF’s 32nd-graded coverage unit, and both players, along with secondary receiver Parker Washington, should have plenty of opportunities this week. The Raiders also lost star edge rusher Maxx Crosby for the season, which should mean plenty of time in the pocket for Jones to wait for one of them to get open.
As noted earlier, Jacksonville is running it a bit more when it can right now. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are splitting the running back work fairly evenly, with Etienne getting more of the passing game snaps and production. Las Vegas is the 25th-ranked DVOA run defense, so there is no reason why the Jaguars would enter this game concerned about being able to get some production from their running game. Over the last two weeks, Bigsby has 32 opportunities while Etienne has 27. Things fluctuate based on game script and the “hot hand” so it is hard to trust either, but the matchup this week seems to indicate at least one of them is likely to have a serviceable game.
How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 4:25pm Eastern
49ers ( 23) at
Dolphins ( 21)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is a former 49ers assistant coach, which should make for an interesting matchup between two teams that are familiar with each other’s tendencies and thought processes.
- Miami is 1-4 when playing without QB Tua Tagovailoa and 5-4 when they are playing with him.
- San Francisco’s once-potent offense has scored 10 points or less in three of their last four games.
- Miami WR Jaylen Waddle suffered a knee injury in Week 15 and his status for this game is now in question.
- The Dolphins have a slim chance to make the playoffs if they win their three remaining games and get some help from elsewhere.
How san Francisco Will Try To Win ::
The 49ers have had quite a ride in 2024 and not in a good way. The injuries continue to pile up and they seemingly can’t get out of their own way in many instances. Technically the 49ers are still alive for a playoff berth despite their 6-8 record. However, they lost both matchups against the Rams and are only 1-4 within the division. Basically, they would need to win their last three games and hit a 12-team parlay in some other games just to have a chance. Four of their eight losses were decided in the last two minutes and even winning one or two of those games would have them squarely in the race for the division. Clearly, the main story of the 2024 49ers season is the injuries, but a close second would be the missed opportunities.
The 49ers tend to run a methodical and run-based offense that focuses heavily on the running game. They have unfortunately been playing without star tackle Trent Williams, who is battling an ankle injury and a horrible off-the-field personal situation. That has hurt their rushing efficiency, but they’ve also been losing RBs at a record rate this year. Their top 4 RBs from the summer: Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, and Isaac Guerendo are all out at this point. The first three are done for the season, while Guerendo is likely to miss this week with a hamstring injury after looking great in two games as a starter. Patrick Taylor Jr. is the next man up at this point, while practice squad call-ups Israel Abanikanda and Ke’Shawn Vaughn may mix in a bit. When you get this deep in the depth chart, is there a huge difference from one player to the next? Hard to say. All of this is to say that San Francisco is less likely to be able to lean heavily on their running game and efficiency this week than they are used to.
The matchup this week is against a defense that is also hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. Miami’s defense has underwhelmed this season but has had some bright moments as well. Over the past three weeks, they have allowed over 25 points per game and if the 49ers offense actually shows up this week they could be able to find some success. With the running game likely left as average at best, the offense will rely heavily on QB Brock Purdy to carry them. His target tree should be relatively condensed with TE George Kittle and WRs Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel also highly involved. Kittle has been one of the best tight ends in the league and Jennings has been arguably the biggest bright spot on the roster, but Deebo’s 2024 season has been wildly disappointing. None of the RBs on the roster at this point are especially strong in the passing game and San Francisco has not targeted rookie WR Ricky Pearsall at a high rate (only three targets per game despite playing a high snap rate). The 49ers are going to show up to play in this game and their means of moving the ball will be relatively concentrated. While they won’t simply ignore the running game, we can feel confident that they will have to throw the ball more than they would in most weeks.
How Miami Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 22nd 8:20pm Eastern
Bucs ( 25.5) at
Cowboys ( 21.5)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Bucs visiting the Cowboys for a game with a healthy 48.5 total and Tampa favored by 4. I will note that the Cowboys, who were somewhat left for dead after the Dak Prescott injury, have now scored 20, 27, 30, and 34 points in the last four weeks under backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Rush himself was not really responsible for much of this (he’s thrown for just over 200 yards a game), but he’s been at least capable and hasn’t made many mistakes, while the run game has been strong and the defense has actually been…well, not good, but less atrocious. They have 18 sacks and 10 turnovers in those four games even though they’ve given up a lot of points. Let’s dig in.
DALLAS
For the home team, Rico Dowdle is coming off of his 4th straight game of 20+ running back opportunities. Dowdle is running for an excellent 5 yards per carry on the season and has really taken the reins of this backfield, but despite all of the Cowboys scoring he’s only had 1 touchdown in those four games. Feels like bad luck more than anything else. The workload is great and Tampa’s run D isn’t what we’ve gotten used to seeing from them as they’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs, just 22nd in the league. They’re above average in overall run defense metrics because they aren’t allowing a ton of rushing volume as their offense has been so good that they have been playing from ahead a lot. Teams can run on them, but they’re game scripting opposing backs out, basically. Dowdle is in that boat as a guy who can catch passes but that isn’t really the big part of his game. He does face some game script risk if Dallas falls behind significantly. In builds predicated on the Cowboys winning or at least keeping the game close, he looks like an excellent play, but in builds based around the Bucs winning handily, I wouldn’t use him. Ezekiel Elliott is somehow hanging onto the RB2 job despite gaining barely over 3 yards per carry (including against the woeful Panthers last week). I don’t get it either. I doubt I’ll play him.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, people forgot last week that CeeDee Lamb is still an elite receiver and he reminded them with a 9/116/1 line on 13 targets. Obviously Cooper Rush is a downgrade but Lamb is still a great pass catcher. The matchup here is great, with Rush being the only thing really holding him back. He’s not my top priority of the high-end spends as that would be Mike Evans (and Dowdle’s close too), but he’s a perfectly viable option, and given that there are only two players priced over $10k on this slate it isn’t particularly hard to fit him in. Brandin Cooks climbed up to 63% of the snaps last week while Jalen Tolbert dipped down to 49%, his lowest snap rate of the season…bad news for Tolbert, who I thought was likely to take Cooks’ job at some point just due to ability. Here’s the problem we face for Cooks, Tolbert, and the rest of the Dallas receiving corps: Rush doesn’t really throw deep and Lamb is a target vacuum, so for everyone else, you’re basically playing guess who gets a touchdown. It’s not impossible, but it’s tough to see who has a reasonable shot at success from just volume. At $6,600, I’d argue Cooks is one of the least likely as while he’s on the field a fair bit, that’s a steep price to beat just on short-yardage volume. Tolbert at $4k feels slightly better though (obviously) still risky and then you get to the rotational guys: Dallas played all of Jalen Brooks, KaVontae Turpin, and Jonathan Mingo last week. So, yes, six wide receivers saw meaningful snaps. Yikes. Books is out this week and I expect Dallas will come down to five instead of adding yet another wide receiver to the merry-go-round, which I think primarily benefits Tolbert. Of the rotational guys, Turpin’s my favorite because he at least has great per-touch upside as he’s used heavily around the red zone. So, overall, I’d rank the Dallas wideouts as Lamb, Tolbert, Cooks, Turpin, and Mingo.
At tight end, the Cowboys are running three guys: Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker, and Brevyn Spann-Ford. Spann-Ford is not an active member of the passing game with Ferguson back healthy but can be used as a punt as he’s still on the field some. Schoonmaker is similar, and while he filled in admirably for Ferguson, in the 10 games they’ve been on the field together, Schoonmaker only has a total of 7 targets. Ferguson, though, is the same play he was last time I wrote up a Cowboys showdown – he’s likely to be 2nd on the team in targets behind Lamb (he’ll compete for that role with Cooks, and while Cooks may come out ahead, it’s going to be close). So he’s basically Brandin Cooks…except younger, better, and $1,700 cheaper. I’m sold. He’s 2nd behind Lamb of the Dallas pass catchers for me.
TAMPA BAY
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Kickoff Monday, Dec 23rd 8:15pm Eastern
Saints ( 14.75) at
Packers ( 28.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 16 concludes with the Saints visiting the Packers for a 42 point game with Green Bay favored by 14 (lol). Yep, that’s right, the Saints implied team total is just 14 points. The Saints are absolutely wrecked here. Chris Olave was designated to return from injured reserve but won’t make it back for this game just yet, Alvin Kamara is now out, and even Marquez Valdes-Scantling may miss this game. Yeesh.
GREEN BAY
MONDAY UPDATE: Luke Musgrave has been activated from injured reserve and is expected to play tonight. I was not expecting this as we’ve had very little news on him since he had ankle surgery in October. They activated his return window on December 11th but I thought it would stretch out longer. He’s expected to play a modest role, so it doesn’t make Tucker Kraft unplayable, but he’s obviously the guy most impacted by Musgrave’s return. Musgrave himself is playable at his price as a punt play but with a wide range of outcomes.
On the Packers side, this sets up perfectly for a huge Josh Jacobs game. Jacobs has 18+ carries in five straight games, and he’s averaging 18.9 carries on the season as well as just shy of 3 targets. The Saints are allowing a whopping 4.9 yards per carry, 2nd worst in the NFL. The Packers are massive 14 point home favorites. Everything lines up for Jacobs. About the only thing you can say against him being a smash play is, “well, football is weird sometimes.” It certainly is but there are no other reasonable arguments against Jacobs. The only thing other than injury or variance that can derail him is the game getting out of hand quickly and the Packers deciding to take it easy on him with the end of the season approaching, which IS a viable outcome here, in which case we’d look to Chris Brooks (most likely) or Emanuel Wilson (less likely) to pick up the slack. Given the spread and the matchup, either RB2 is a perfectly viable play who has a good chance of seeing meaningful carries in this game. I’d be fine playing them alongside Jacobs in a story of, “Jacobs smashes early, RB2 puts the game away late.” Based on who’s been playing more lately I’d guess Brooks is the more likely one to gobble up any extra garbage time work, and I would not pair them together.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, I feel like I just wrote this up…the Packers will roll out Jaylen Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson as their primary options with Dontayvion Wicks as the primary backup and then Bo Melton and/or Malik Heath taking a small handful of extra snaps as needed. The latter two are just thin punt options. The big 3 guys are all priced very close together, just $1k apart. Reed has the highest ceiling, while Doubs has the highest floor, and Watson is somewhat in between. The matchup here is excellent and you just have to decide how much exposure to the passing game you want when the Packers already spread the ball around a lot and may not end up passing much deep into the game. That leads me more to Reed and Watson, who have elite per-target upside. They’re the ones who are more capable of putting up smash scores on limited targets. Doubs is fine as well, but I have to have some kind of preference here (or at least I do if I want this to be useful to you guys!). Wicks all the way down at $4k is kind of interesting…his target floor is low, but the same can be said of all the Packers WRs, really. He probably tops out at maybe 5 targets in a normal game script, but it’s possible he plays a bit later into the game if the Packers pull other starters, and given the normal volume distribution on this team if he gets to 5, he could be right up there with the team leaders. It only takes a little bit of volume variance for Wicks to match the volume of any other Packers pass catcher at half the price, so I think he makes for a really solid value option.
At tight end, Tucker Kraft has a very similar volume projection to the wide receivers (again, this team spreads the ball out a lot). He has less yardage upside but more touchdown equity, so at $5,800 he looks like a strong option. Finally, Ben Sims and John FitzPatrick can be used as MME punts. The Packers passing game stuff is tricky overall because there’s no real alpha and it’s hard to project Jordan Love for a ton of pass attempts, so we’re really relying on efficiency: big plays and/or touchdowns. We also have to consider the pricing dynamic of this slate – the main Packers are all very expensive, but the Saints…well….suck. That leads me to be very interested in the Packers value options: the RB2 spot, Wicks, and Kraft. I want to play more of the team that has ~2x the Vegas team total, and the way to do so is by investing heavily in the cheaper guys.
NEW ORLEANS
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