Broncos (

19.5) at
Chargers (

22)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

A busy Week 16 begins with the Broncos visiting the Chargers for a 42 point game with Los Angeles favored by 3 (or 2.5, depending on where you look). Vegas is expecting something low scoring because both of these teams boast solid defenses, but I will just note that the Broncos have scored 29 or more points in four straight games (the Colts helped quite a bit last week), and while the Chargers have struggled offensively of late since J.K. Dobbins was injured, they still have talented pieces on offense. I don’t bet totals but if I did, I’d take the over on this one. 

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side, Gus Edwards played 52% of the snaps the first week after Dobbins was hurt, then 43%, then 27% last week. Now, last week they were blown out by the Bucs so it’s not surprising that Edwards didn’t see much run as a 2-down back with very little pass catching role, but the Chargers were actually leading at halftime and Edwards had 5 carries while Vidal had 2 carries and 3 targets. I could be wrong but I get the feeling that Edwards has very little upside even in ideal game scripts (he also only had 6 and 10 carries against Atlanta in a win and the Chiefs in a close loss in the two prior weeks). He’s a plodder with almost no explosiveness going up against one of the league’s top run defenses (Denver is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per carry) with about the only bright spot that the Broncos may be missing two defensive linemen. I’m not sure that’s enough to make him attractive even at $7k, something like 40 yards and a touchdown may not be enough. I’m a pass, even though I love playing lower-owned “bad” running backs in Showdown, as I just don’t see a path to him getting the kind of volume needed to put up a ceiling game. I think you’d need two touchdowns which just feels super fluky. Straight up I’d prefer Vidal who has seen his snaps go 26% → 53% → 67% since the Dobbins injury and who saw some passing game involvement which is especially playable on DK, but really both are pretty shaky options. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The passing game is where we should expect the Chargers to have more luck. Ladd McConkey has had an outstanding rookie season with 63 receptions for 873 yards and 5 scores, and while Denver’s defense is outstanding overall they struggle against the slot as their nickel corner has given up more yards, receptions, and YAC than any other nickel corner in the NFL. We took an over on Ladd in the props market and are extremely bullish on him in this game. Look, it’s not exactly revolutionary to be high on a team’s best pass catcher, but in this case, the stars are somewhat aligning for the best pass catcher also having the best matchup while everyone else is in much more difficult spots. Speaking of difficult, Quentin Johnston is likely to be running most of his routes against standout cornerback Patrick Surtain. Johnston is also, somewhat puzzlingly, priced up to his highest Showdown salary of the season. He’s shown a ceiling on a couple of occasions so he certainly belongs in player pools, but I much prefer Ladd at not that different of a salary. Easy call. Josh Palmer has had a disappointing season after being drafted as the Chargers WR1 coming into the year but he only has 53 targets in 13 games (yikes). He’s also priced up a bit and it’s difficult to see him finding a ceiling for $6,400. He really only has two games all season that you might be happy with at his salary, and they’re only decent, not great (i.e. he could match his best game of the season and still not be a lock to be in winning tournament lineups). Johnston has at least shown more ceiling, so I prefer him of the pair, but I’m not super excited about either of the LA perimeter wideouts. Behind these guys D.J. Chark, Derius Davis, and (somehow) Laviska Shenault are mixing in for just a few snaps here and there. None of these guys are strong options but Chark has a history as a deep threat while Laviska has always been known as a “dangerous with the ball in his hands” guy, so they can be included in MME pools as longshot dart throws who at least have some semblance of ceiling.

At tight end, Will Dissly is listed as questionable but after being tagged as being “week to week” it’s tough to see him playing on a short turnaround after not having practiced at all since his injury. I’ll assume he’s out, which keeps Stone Smartt in a big role. Smartt played 67% of the snaps last week and caught 5 of 6 targets. He’s a pretty talented pass catching tight end (clearly the best on the roster), and at his below-the-kickers price, he’s my second favorite Chargers pass catcher. Against a Denver defense that is leading the league in sacks per game, there’s a strong chance we see a lot of short passing from the Chargers, which really benefits Ladd and Smartt (and possibly Vidal as well if he can play well in pass protection). Backup TEs Tucker Fisk and Eric Tomlinson can be used in MME lineups as punt options.

(Wednesday morning update): Hayden Hurst practiced in full this week and the Chargers opened his window to return from injured reserve. Hurst was playing meaningful snaps for the first four weeks of the season, then basically vanished. He had some very low snap share games as well as a couple of healthy scratches before being placed on IR. Will Dissly basically iced him before he got injured. If he’s active (which isn’t a guarantee), it’s unclear what kind of role he’ll step into. He may play ahead of Smartt, he may play behind him, or he may barely play at all. My best guess here is the Chargers are not exactly enamored of Hurst given that they benched him earlier in the season, and so I think Smartt probably plays ahead of him, but I could be wrong. I would not play the two of them together on the same roster. 

DENVER