SLATE Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Texans WR John Metchie (shoulder) and TE Cade Stover (illness) have yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), making it likely we see more of TE Irv Smith and WRs Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson against the Chiefs.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has practiced in full in each session this week after departing the team’s Week 15 victory over the Browns early.
- WR Hollywood Brown (shoulder) has practiced in full in each session this week and appears set to make his regular-season debut for the Chiefs.
- Steelers WR George Pickens is still not practicing due to his hamstring issue, likely indicating another missed game against the Ravens unless he can get on the practice field Thursday.
- Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) has yet to practice this week and is unlikely to play on a short week. WR Rashod Bateman was added to the injury report Wednesday as a limited participant with a foot injury. RB Justice Hill missed Wednesday’s session for personal reasons.
- This slate is extremely interesting from a theoretical sense. The first game has a narrower range of outcomes but clearer paths to volume while the second game carries an immensely wide range of outcomes but lower certainty regarding where the production is likeliest to flow.
HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Steelers have been a bit unsettled offensively with their top play maker out of action the previous two games. Pickens popped up with the dreaded wide receiver hamstring injury two weeks ago and has yet to practice with the ailment, likely indicating he is trending towards his third consecutive absence against the Ravens. Pittsburgh has held a neutral-to-negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) in all but one game this season (their Week 13 shootout with the Bengals), notably able to grind out an 18-16 victory over these Ravens back in Week 11 on the leg of six Chris Boswell field goals. But their offense has changed gears with Russell Wilson under center, continuing to operate as a run-first unit but layering in much more intermediate-to-deep passing leveraged off the run, something they were unable to fully harness with Justin Fields under center earlier in the season. The problem is those downfield looks have been far less effective and less frequent with Pickens off the field, making the offense more one-dimensional in the process. And since we don’t expect the Steelers to largely alter their game plan coming into Week 16, and since the Ravens continue to operate as a true pass-funnel defense while allowing the fewest rush yards per game, expect the Pittsburgh game plan to revolve around their defense and what they can do to limit the electric Lamar Jackson on the other side.
The blueprint of this backfield has remained consistent throughout the season. Najee Harris is the “starter” and sees a higher snap rate and opportunity share in positive game script while Jaylen Warren is the “change of pace” and clear passing down option and sees a higher snap rate and opportunity share in negative game script. Cordarrelle Patterson has played between 10% and 15% of the offensive snaps in every game since the team’s Week 9 bye. The matchup on the ground is about as bad as it gets against a Baltimore defense holding opposing backfields to the fewest rush yards per game (80.7), the fewest yards per rush attempt (3.5), and just 1.64 yards before contact per attempt (sixth). The team managed just 3.6 yards per carry against the Ravens the last time these two franchises met. Given the state of the pffense with Pickens likely out, I expect the Steelers to start with a run-focused approach, likely maintaining that stance for as long as the game remains close.
The snap rates of the remaining pass catchers with Pickens off the field over the previous two games has been confusing, at best, with Van Jefferson and Pat Freiermuth the only two players to see consistent snaps and route participations in each game. Calvin Austin played on just 35% of the team’s snaps in Week 14 before jumping up to an 81% snap rate in Week 15, with tight ends Darnell Washington, MyCole Pruitt, and even Connor Heyward mixing in on various packages. Wide receivers Scotty Miller, Mike Williams, and Ben Skowronek continue to work in via package roles, with all three typically good for 10-20 offensive snaps on a given week. Considering Freiermuth has not seen more than seven targets in a game this season and has seen four or fewer targets in 10 contests, that effectively leaves only Jefferson and Austin as players with bankable roles, and even then, Austin has not seen more than six targets while Jefferson has not seen more than five targets in a game this year. The matchup through the air is clearly optimal, but there is something to be said for the fact the Steelers are less likely to chuck the football around the yard unless otherwise forced and the likely absence of Pickens removes the only player on the offense that has a proven track record of commanding targets at a meaningful rate.
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