Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Steelers RB Jaylen Warren was reportedly pulled from the team’s Week 3 game against the Chargers by head coach Mike Tomlin “because of an ongoing injury issue.”
- Justin Fields has gone from project, to clear backup, to starting quarterback for one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the league. He drew the start in Week 3 while Russell Wilson served as the emergency quarterback. Mike Tomlin has already announced that Fields will start in Week 4 against the Colts.
- Both teams are in the bottom six in pass rate over expectation (PROE) which tells the story of how this game is likeliest to play out. To me, the largest influence on the game environment will be how Gus Bradley deploys his linebackers after he widened their base in Week 3. More on this below.
How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
Through all the offseason talks about who was going to start under center for the Steelers, the identity of this team remains its defense. This coaching staff is also good at game planning for specific opponents, something the general public seems to have forgotten about offensive coordinator Arthur Smith after his tenure in Atlanta. Smith and Tomlin are generally slower to adjust during a game in what I dubbed the “adjustment phase” and “oh, shit phase,” but their collective game planning is one of their strengths. And with the defense they have, they are typically allowed to remain in their “game planning phase” deeper than the average team, aiming to shorten games, wear down their opponents, and win in the fourth quarter. One of the aspects of this matchup with the Colts that is likely to go largely overlooked is that the Colts are one of the easier teams in the league to game plan against, particularly their defense. Gus Bradley’s antiquated Cover-3-heavy defense remains fairly static, making it easier for their opponents to game plan in the week leading up to the game. That benefits the Steelers more so than a lot of the teams in the league. Expect a ground-heavy attack predicated on staying ahead of the sticks to string together long, sustained drives in this one.
While the matchup on the ground for the Steelers running backs is one of the better matchups on paper, Najee Harris has run almost exclusively behind zone blocking concepts through three weeks (46 zone to nine man/gap). That’s not necessarily an issue for the Steelers as he should be able to grind out four yards on early downs against the Colts, but we shouldn’t expect the same explosive runs we’ve seen from teams that utilize heavier rates of man/gap blocking concepts against the Colts during the first three weeks of the season. The reason has to do with linebacker responsibilities, which are more clearly defined against zone runs than they are against man/gap concepts. That assertion is backed up by a middling 4.4 yards allowed per carry, even while allowing 4.7 yards per carry to Josh Jacobs in Week 2. As such, Harris is likely to need elite volume to return a GPP-viable score in this spot, something he could see considering the injury to Jaylen Warren, the fact Harris has averaged 21.3 running back opportunities per game through three weeks, and a matchup that should allow the Steelers to remain in “game planning phase” much deeper than is typically the norm. I’m writing this before the first injury report of the week comes out, but I assume Warren is going to be listed as a non-participant on Wednesday and could potentially miss this game. We shouldn’t expect the simple act of Warren’s uncertainty to immediately boost the workload expectations of Harris as Cordarrelle Patterson is on hand to step into the lost work, and he’s familiar with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense from their time together in Atlanta. In all, consider it a good-not-great matchup on the ground for Harris and company. That is unless Gus Bradley continues forward with a widened linebacker unit. In Week 3, he widened the linebacker width, which I believe is a schematical adjustment after getting shredded by man/gap concepts over the first two weeks. That would be the exact opposite adjustment to make against the zone-heavy Steelers run game, introducing some level of uncertainty regarding expected rushing efficiency from Pittsburgh here.
George Pickens ranks top-24 in both team target market share (25.4%, 19th) and targets per route run (26.8%, 24th), but he has target counts of seven, four, and seven through three games in a run oriented offense. He is averaging a touch over 20 routes run per game, which is borderline ridiculous. Regular WR2 Van Jefferson was poked in the eye in Week 3 and missed a solid chunk of the game, eventually returning in the fourth quarter. In his absence, slot man Calvin Austin and backup perimeter wide receiver Scotty Miller handled secondary receiver duties alongside Pickens. The bigger story is that no pass-catcher on this offense outside of Pickens has seen more than a measly five targets in a game this season, which occurred against the Chargers when quarterback Justin Fields attempted 32 passes (he averaged 21.5 the first two weeks of the season). Tight end Pat Freiermuth has a putrid 4.3 aDOT and just 13 total targets through three games. There just isn’t enough volume to support anyone behind Pickens, and even then, Pickens has not exactly put up GPP-viable scores. Finally, Fields has fed running backs 19 targets on 75 total pass attempts so far, good for a 25.33% positional target rate.
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