Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Jets projected QB is a 5th round rookie who has barely stuck in the NFL
• Michael Carter is underpriced for his role
• The biggest obstacle to the Bengals success is game flow
• Joe Mixon has been in a timeshare the past two weeks

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The 5-2 Bengals are riding high, coming off a 41-17 thrashing of division rival Baltimore. It’s been a long time since the Bengals were atop the AFC North, but atop is currently where this better-than-expected Bengals squad sits. The Bengals appear legitimately good, having won confidently against the Steelers/Ravens/Lions, and having gone 2-2 in close games against the Vikings/Bears/Jags/Packers. It feels as amazing to write this as it probably does to read, but the Bengals are just two three-point losses away from being undefeated. 

Zac Taylor deserves a lot of credit for his approach on offense. The Bengals play consistently slow (32nd in situational neutral pace/31st in pace when trailing/25th in pace when winning) but are running a lot of efficient plays. Joe Burrow was limited to 30/18/32/32 pass attempts through the first four weeks before seeing 38/29/38 attempts the past three games, with the 29 attempts coming against the Lions in a game the Bengals controlled throughout. It looks like the Bengals coaching staff is gaining trust in Burrow as he gains confidence coming back from a significant injury. The Jets are attackable on the ground (27th in DVOA) and through the air (28th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance against a defense that is nothing but least resistance, expect the Bengals to play similarly to how they did against the Lions in Week 6. In that game, the Bengals allowed Burrow to throw enough to build an early lead, before coasting to an easy victory up 20-0 to start the fourth quarter. The real surprise of this Bengals team has been the defense, and this profiles as a game where they can let their defense control the game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets franchise QB Zach Wilson is expected to miss a few weeks with a sprained PCL, and that is very good news for the Jets chances to win games. Zach “frightened child” Wilson looks like he can’t hack it at the NFL level. You hate to say that about a top pick after only seven games, but those seven games have revealed a lot about where Wilson is in terms of developing as a professional QB. When rookie QBs are going to be good, it’s common to see them make mistakes alongside big plays during their first year as they adjust to the speed of the NFL game. Peyton Manning’s 26 TD, 28 INT, 56.7% completion percentage rookie campaign is an excellent example. 28 INTS would be the most Manning ever thew, and 56.7% would be the lowest completion percentage of his career. While it took Manning a year to fully adjust to the NFL, it was clear in his rookie year that big plays were going to happen with him under center. When a rookie QB isn’t going to be good, he looks like Zach Wilson.

The Jets recently traded for Joe Flacco, but it’s hard to think the Jets will start a QB they traded for mid-week. Flacco does have a familiarity with this offense already from last year, and it shouldn’t take much time getting caught up for him to be ready. Since Flacco was just added, it makes sense to approach this game as if Mike White will be calling the signals for New York, but it wouldn’t but totally shocking for news to break later in the week that Flacco is going to start. The Jets draw an upstart Bengals defense that is stuffing the run (5th in DVOA) and limiting passing (8th in DOVA). The Jets are likely to struggle to move the ball. The Jets play slow (25th in situational neutral place) unless they are ahead (2nd in pace when leading), but there is no reason to think the Jets will be winning. With no clear path of least resistance, and White currently projected under center, expect the Jets to try and remain balanced, hoping something breaks their way early to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bengals will be a popular eliminator league selection this week, having been installed as large 10-point road favorites. While 10 points is nothing to sneeze at in an NFL game, it still feels low. The Jets just lost their “franchise QB” and are going to be starting a guy most people will have to Google. Mike White was a 2018 fifth-round pick that was cut by the Cowboys and spent most of 2019/2020 bouncing around the Jets practice squad . . . says Google. The most likely game flow feels highly likely in what is expected to be a lopsided affair. The Bengals should take an early lead in whichever manner they see fit, before pumping the breaks and coasting to an easy victory in the fourth quarter. 

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Two of the top ten teams in situation-neutral rush rate.
• Indianapolis ranks 31^st in situation-neutral pace of play, while Tennesee ranks 22^nd.
• The Titans rank 18^th in opponent plays per game at 63.3. The Colts rank eighth at 60.6. These two teams combined for only 129 offensive plays run from scrimmage in their last meeting in Week 3. That’s almost ten plays below the league average this season.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans continue to place games on the back (and quads) of running back Derrick Henry. They combine a moderate-to-slow pace of play (22nd in the NFL) with extreme situation-neutral rush rates (48%, fifth highest in the league). The expected offensive snaps run from scrimmage from this team varies wildly depending on how their defense performs, with five games of 68 plays or fewer, a game of 88 plays, and a game of 100 (!!!) plays (against the Jets, which was a loss – lolz). There’s nothing from a macro perspective that I can say in this space that we don’t already know of this Titans team.

From what we have seen of the Titans this season, Henry’s workload is most influenced by the game script instead of matchup, health of the offensive line, or health of other offensive personnel. Why is that important? Well, we can expect a robust workload for King Henry in all but highly negative game scripts. Henry’s snap rates are typically a tick above “lead back 1A” levels and a tick below bellcow levels, but we know when Henry is on the field, there is a good chance he is getting the football one way or the other. Expect Jeremy McNichols to work as the primary change of pace and obvious passing situation back, with Darrynton Evans now healthy and on hand to handle emergency situations. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against the number one rushing defense (by DVOA), yielding a below-average 4.24 net-adjusted line yards metric. The Titans are expecting all-world tackle Taylor Lewan back from a concussion this week, boosting the expected run-blocking effectiveness of the Tennessee offensive line.

The pass-catcher snap rates have been all over the place since Week 4 when the team started dealing with significant injuries. Last week, all of Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds, Marcus Johnson, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played 44% of the offensive snaps, with AJ Brown checking in at 62%. Furthermore, Brown has played a high of 79% of the offensive snaps over the previous three games. Anthony Firkser returned to the lineup in Week 4 and has seen at most 50% of the offensive snaps in any game since then, yielding the majority of the work to blocking tight end Geoff Swaim and typical backup MyCole Pruitt. Bringing us full circle, remember that the Titans have shown a deep propensity to ride Derrick Henry for as long as they feasibly can, making all pass-catchers ceiling-only plays due to the unknowns concerning their individual snap rates.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts should have a similar plan of attack here but are less likely to enjoy the same level of success on the ground when compared to the Titans. Somewhat quietly, this Titans defense has surrendered fewer fantasy points per game to opposing backfields than the Buccaneers (20.6 per game) but has allowed 273.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 24th in the league. Frank Reich has long been hailed as one of the sharper offensive minds in the game, fully capable and willing to adjust his game plan leading up to and during the game. That said, I have felt like something has been missing in that regard when watching this team play this season, as the clearest plan of attack has not lined up with how the Colts have looked to approach games very often this year. This introduces additional variance into Colts games since we can’t accurately project offensive game plans, meaning all players on the Colts should be treated more as wide range of outcome plays every week.

Running back Jonathan Taylor has seen between 16 and 23 running back opportunities in either extremely positive (three times) or highly competitive, back-and-forth (once) games over the previous four weeks. It was only the last matchup with the Titans where he fell below his standard range of opportunities of 16-24, giving us a good idea of what kind of workload to expect in most game scenarios. This also means his ceiling is highly reliant on multiple trips to the end zone, which theoretically could occur here but would require a neutral-to-positive game script to land in his favor. Behind Taylor, Marlon Mack has fallen almost entirely out of favor (it is likely the Colts were showcasing a possible trade pawn during his stretch of increased usage), leaving change of pace and obvious passing work to Nyheim Hines. That role has translated to a high of nine running back opportunities over the previous four weeks, but he would indeed see an increased workload should the Colts fall behind early here. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.375 net-adjusted line yards metric as this Colts offensive line has underperformed in most run-blocking metrics to start the year.

Primarily through injury, Michael Pittman has emerged as the leader of this Colts pass-catching corps, with TY Hilton appearing in only one game so far and Parris Campbell on the IR. Pittman and Zach Pascal are the only pass-catchers to enjoy near every-down usage, but quarterback Carson Wentz has not attempted more than 38 passes on the season, typically landing in the 31-35 pass attempt range (a high of only 35 pass attempts over the previous four weeks). This has left Pittman with a high of only eight targets over that time, Pascal with a high of six targets over that time, Mo Allie-Cox with a high of six targets over that time, Jack Doyle with exactly one target in each of the last four games, Nyheim Hines with a high of three targets over that time, and Jonathan Taylor with a high of four targets over that time. You get the point. This is not a high-volume pass offense. So, while the Titans can be beaten through the air, the likeliest scenario leaves Carson Wentz in the 31-35 pass attempts range to be split amongst the aforementioned pass-catchers (throw in TY Hilton, Ashton Dulin, Mike Strachan, or whatever other wide receiver carries the WR3 designation as well).

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likeliest to see a good old-fashioned divisional slugfest here, with each team likeliest to start with a ground-heavy approach. The pure matchups would tilt the Titans to the air and the Colts to the ground, but we can be fairly certain that Tennessee will continue riding King Henry for as long as the game remains competitive in either direction. Thusly, the opportunity for Tennessee pass-catchers to become true difference-makers on this slate revolves almost entirely around the low probability chance that the Colts jump out to, and maintain deep into the game, a substantial lead. When we then consider the high likelihood of less than league average offensive pays run from scrimmage here, it doesn’t leave a lot of meat on the bones for secondary and ancillary options from either team.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The Rams continue an extremely soft stretch in their schedule as they visit a Texans team that has lost three of its last four games by 26 or more points.

• The Rams should be able to move the ball in any manner they choose against a Texans defense that is bottom of the league against both the run and pass.

• The Texans will have significant struggles moving the ball against a talented and aggressive Rams defense.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams snuck out a close victory against the winless Lions in Week 7, as the Lions were deep in Rams territory with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter before a Jared Goff interception and ensuing Rams drive put them away. The Lions pulled out all the stops in that game with a big play by emerging star D’Andre Swift early, a surprise onside kick, and multiple successful fake punts — it still wasn’t enough. This game sets up similarly on paper, as both the Lions and Texans are very poor statistically, which may lead some to believe the Rams are in for a similar type of “grind it out win.” These situations are very different, however. The Lions have been playing extremely hard for Head Coach Dan Campbell and getting the most out of what little talent they have. They also had the added motivation of playing their former QB, Matthew Stafford, and supporting their new QB, Jared Goff, against his former team. Meanwhile, the Texans have been getting throttled recently (which has to hurt morale) and appear to have disrupted the locker room with the trade of Mark Ingram, given the reactions to the move by some veterans still with the team. The Deshaun Watson trade rumors (and everything encompassing that situation) are growing louder every week as the trade deadline approaches. Suffice it to say; the Texans are a bit of a mess.

The Texans rank bottom four in the NFL on offense AND defense in both run and pass DVOA. Los Angeles is 6-1 and absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball right now — they should be able to move the ball in whatever manner they prefer. Their run/pass ratio is right around the league average (58% pass), and this matchup doesn’t provide anything that should skew them away from that. Matthew Stafford is having a career year with the best supporting cast and scheme he has ever had and is answering every question critics have thrown his way over the years. Stafford is a legitimate MVP candidate, and the Rams could certainly come out very aggressive and let him rack up more stats and build on their momentum here. The Rams’ run game struggled against the Lions last week, so it would also make sense for them to try to get that back on track here against a Texans run defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in DVOA and yards per carry allowed. The Bills are the closest comparable to the Rams in terms of opponents the Texans have faced (both teams are top-5 in defensive DVOA, top-10 in offensive DVOA, top-3 in situation-neutral pace, and have similar run/pass ratios). The Bills absolutely teed off on the Texans in Week 4, to the tune of a 40-0 victory. After a sluggish effort last week against the Lions, we should fully expect the Rams to come out swinging and try to dominate this game from the start. The Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air in this matchup and should have a great deal of success doing both.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

While all signs point to a Rams smash, we still need to attempt to make a case for the Texans to keep this game competitive. The first thing we can look at is their Home/Road splits. Houston is 1-2 at home and 0-4 on the road, with their two home losses coming by an average of nine points and their four road losses being by an average of 26 points. In theory, it makes sense that a poor team like the Texans would do much better at home than on the road. Another glimmer of hope lies in the possibility that Tyrod Taylor will return at quarterback. Taylor led the Texans to their lone victory in Week 1 and had them tied with a very good Browns team at halftime of their Week 2 game prior to exiting with his hamstring injury. Taylor provides a dual-threat presence to the Texans offense that helps them sustain drives and keep their poor defense off the field longer while also taking much better care of the ball than rookie QB Davis Mills.

Houston operates at a very slow pace (25th in situation-neutral pace of play) and runs the ball at a slightly above-average rate. The trade of Mark Ingram this week should not do anything drastic to alter those splits as the Texans have several other veteran running backs who should be able to step in and mirror Ingram’s replacement level efficiency. However, the Rams defense poses an extremely difficult challenge in all areas for the Texans. The Rams have the #2 graded run defense by PFF while also ranking 4th in pass defense DVOA. While neither option is great, I do expect the Texans to lean a little more run-heavy than usual in an attempt to slow the game and limit turnovers. When the Texans do throw the ball, we should expect a lot of short-area passing in the middle of the field and screen passes. Davis Mills ranks 32nd out of 35 qualifying QBs in PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards, while the Rams defense has an extremely talented secondary and #7 graded pass rush by PFF. It is very unlikely the Texans can or will be able to attack downfield in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Rams are likely to take control of this game very early and lead throughout. The Texans lack explosive offensive pieces that could let them take control of the game early and control the tempo of the game, as the Lions were able to do last week. Houston will try to slow things down early, although they will probably not have much success in doing so. This game actually sets up very similarly to the Rams’ game in New York against the Giants from two weeks ago as the Rams should be able to move the ball at will, and the Texans simply do not have the pieces to keep up. The indoor environment also reduces the chances of fluke plays caused by weather or messing up the anticipated game script. Of the 12 games on this slate, this game is probably the most predictable in terms of game flow and outcome. The Rams are aggressive by nature and will likely stay that way into the 4th quarter, regardless of the scoreboard, with the Texans having to become more aggressive than they would like fairly early, although their “aggressive” will likely come in the form of relatively conservative passing accompanied by an elevated pace rather than a downfield attacking mindset. It is important to note that if Tyrod Taylor is able to play, that would significantly help the chances the Texans can keep this game competitive into the second half.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets in every healthy game but one (a two-target game in which the Big Ben attempted only 25 passes, his lowest number of the season).
• We should expect Najee Harris to see a heavy workload, albeit in a difficult matchup on the ground. His pass game usage is likely to spike to offset efficiency concerns on the ground.
• Ridiculously slow expected combined pace of play, particularly in the first half.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers continue their short area, pass-heavy approach this season after making that transition over the previous season with an aging Ben Roethlisberger. They hold the league’s fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate but have scaled back their pace of play all the way down to a 21st-ranked 31.86 situation-neutral pace of play. Furthermore, they rank dead last in the league in first-half pace of play, indicating an emphasis on slowing games down in an attempt to win games in the second half (fifth-ranked pace of play in the second half of games, largely driven by neutral-to-negative game scripts). The big news out of Pittsburgh is the absence of Juju Smith-Schuster for the remainder of the season, which boosted the pass game volume of running back Najee Harris and rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth in their first game with JuJu out of the lineup. The most surprising aspect of JuJu missing time was the emergence of Ray-Ray McCLoud III, who played 69% of the offensive snaps in their Week 6 overtime victory. Thinking it through logically, it makes sense that McCloud stepped into the vacated slot role left behind by Juju as the majority of his snaps have come from the slot this season (119 of 140 snaps from the slot).

The run game is dominated by rookie running back Najee Harris, who has played 80% or more of the offensive snaps in five of the Steelers’ six games thus far. Furthermore, if we take away his massive 19 target game in which the Steelers played from behind and played largely without Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster, Najee has averaged over six targets per game over the last three games played (plus that 19-target explosion four weeks ago). We should expect the likeliest scenario to land Najee in the 25-28 running back opportunity range, with five to seven of those looks being targets. The matchup yields the lowest net-adjusted line yards metric on the week at just 3.62 (Pittsburgh ranks 30th while Cleveland’s defense ranks sixth).

Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets in four of five healthy contests (a two-target outlier game in Week 5 against Denver, where he still went for 72 yards and a score), making his range of outcomes one of the highest on the week at the wide receiver position. Behind Johnson, targets are likeliest to flow through Najee Harris, Chase Claypool (assuming health), Pat Freiermuth, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Eric Ebron, likely in that order. Big Ben has attempted 40 or more pass attempts in four of the previous five games (and four of six total games on the season), with the only games where he failed to reach 40 pass attempts coming in comfortable wins over the Bills in Week 1 and the Broncos in Week 5. The Browns rank fourth in the league in completion rate allowed at just 61.14%, 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt at just 6.6, but 17th in yards allowed per completion at 10.8. This theoretically boosts the raw expectation of wide receiver Chase Claypool, who acts as the primary intermediate to downfield receiver on this offense.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns appear to be getting healthier, as all of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Jr., and Nick Chubb appear likely to play this week. Donovan Peoples-Jones currently appears as the likeliest to miss this week, which should open up additional snaps and usage for Rashard Higgins on the perimeter opposite OBJ. That said, Cleveland utilizes multiple tight ends on the field at the third-highest rate in the league (behind only a massive 55% combined 12- and 13-personnel rate from the Dolphins and the misleading 56% combined 12-, 13-, and 22-personnel rates from the Falcons), so we shouldn’t expect more than 60-65% snap rate he has seen over the previous two weeks. The Browns rank 30th in the NFL in situation-neutral pace of play, 30th in second half pace of play, and 31st in situation-neutral pass rate. One final note with respect to injury news revolves around Baker Mayfield, who remained noncommittal regarding his expected status for Week 8. He returned to practice on Thursday but was seen making only short-area throws in positional drills. I’d tentatively expect him to return to action here with the possibility his injured shoulder prevents him from taking shots downfield.

The ground game is a bit harder to figure out with Nick Chubb returning from a pretty solid absence. It takes a bit of “reading between the lines,” but I wouldn’t expect Chubb to return to more than his usual 50-55% snap rate workload. Instead of working with Kareem Hunt, it’s likely D’Ernest Johnson steps into the complementary role, likely seeing 45-50% of the available snaps. The likeliest outcome puts Chubb’s usage in the 18-22 running back opportunity range, while Johnson is likely to fall in a very Kareem Huntian 15-17 opportunity range. With neither of these two back typically involved much in the passing game, we should theoretically see a small uptick to the expected volume of the primary and secondary pass-catchers on this offense, but trying to figure out who would benefit the most is a fool’s errand. The matchup on the ground yields a “low for the Browns” 4.635 net-adjusted line yards metric. Either way, the focus of this Browns team should remain on the ground game, particularly with Nick Chubb returning and D’Ernest Johnson looking like a capable NFL-level back last week.

If we can confidently project Baker Mayfield to land in the 28-33 pass attempt range, and since we can confidently assume both healthy running backs won’t be utilized heavily in the passing game (two targets for Johnson in his only game as the starter; Chubb has seen two or fewer targets in every game this season), that leaves a small path to an increase in volume for OBJ and Jarvis against an opponent that filters the majority of the pass game work against them to the wide receiver position. These are still low expected volume players (neither has seen double-digit looks this year), but this might be their best shot at cracking the double-digit target mark this season. The reality of the situation for the Browns is we still can’t confidently narrow the expected target share enough for us to feel confident in any one pass-catcher. The Steelers filter the majority of the pass game work against through the wide receiver position (fourth-fewest running back targets allowed and fourth-fewest tight end target rate allowed thus far), and OBJ and Jarvis should be on the field the most, but that’s about where the positives end.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

When we combine the tendencies from each of these teams, we’re left with a scenario where the first half is likely to be played at a snail’s pace. Each team is likely to slow things down and play to win the game in the second half. That dents the overall appeal of most play-makers from each side, with the two exceptions being the expected high usages of Diontae Johnsons and Najee Harris, which we’ll get into further in the coming section. Combined, these two teams run about 128 offensive plays per game this season, with the Browns demonstrating a wide range of outcomes up to this point (71 or more in four of seven weeks and 61 or less in the other three games) and the Steelers checking in with 65 or fewer plays in four of six contests. Since we don’t expect the Browns to break off chunk gains and we don’t expect the Steelers to attack downfield with great frequency, each team should be relegated to having to march the field in order to put up points. The Browns rank 16th in drive success rate allowed while the Steelers rank eighth, giving further credence to the idea that this game will play sloppy in the first half.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>

• Both teams are struggling this season, with the Lions actually appearing to be playing better and having less dysfunction than the Eagles at the moment in spite of their 0-7 record.
• Both teams are throwing at an above-average rate, despite questionable quarterback play.
• Despite their offensive struggles, the Eagles have scored over 20 points in six of seven games this season.
• The Lions have not scored 20+ points since their season opener against the 49ers, a game in which they scored 23 second-half points.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles started out on fire against the Raiders in Week 7 as they marched down the field for a touchdown on an 8 play, 67 yard drive. As explored heading into last week, the Eagles had a need to get their ground game going and were able to do just that with Miles Sanders racking up five carries for 25 yards on that opening drive. Unfortunately, Sanders was injured early on the following drive and missed the rest of the game. From that point forward, the Eagles only ran the ball with their running backs 12 times while Hurts attempted 28 passes. Granted, the Eagles trailed for most of the game but a 70% pass rate is certainly not the recipe for success right now for this team.

Miles Sanders is almost certain to miss this game, leaving the backfield to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. The Eagles had a couple of poor drives after Sanders went out last week and the Raiders scored on both sides of the halftime break — in the blink of an eye, the Eagles were down 24-7 and forced to be very aggressive trying to come back. It will be interesting to see how the Eagles approach this game with a full week to prepare for Sanders’ absence and facing a weak opponent. Both Scott and Gainwell profile more as “scat backs” than they do as between the tackles grinders but should be able to work in tandem to attack Detroit’s bottom-tier run defense behind PFF’s #4 graded run-blocking offensive line. The Eagles will likely take some downfield shots to their speedy wide receivers as well, who have consistently been targeted deep but have not connected recently. A date with Detroit’s 27th DVOA pass defense could be just what the doctor ordered to unlock that downfield explosiveness.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit knows who they are — a talent deficient team that needs many things to break their way to have a chance — and has done a great job keeping games competitive despite their inadequacies. Despite their reputation as a doormat, the Lions have been pesky all season. Only the Bengals and Packers, two teams who lead their divisions, have beaten the Lions by more than 10 points. Their method of “how they try to win” is turning the game into a slugfest and bringing their opponents down to their level. Against the Eagles, Detroit has a strong chance of being able to do just that.

Philadelphia’s run defense is notably poor — ranking 29th in both run defense DVOA and PFF’s run-defense grades. This should allow the Lions to sustain drives and move the ball while putting up some points early, even if they are unable to get in the end zone. The ability of the Lions to put up early points also makes it likely that they will be able to keep their game plan intact deep into the game and make this a 4th quarter game where it will be a game of “chicken” between Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff of which QB makes a big mistake first. The Lions offense flows primarily through D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Jamaal Williams with some calculated short to intermediate passing to their low-talent receiving corps. We should expect a similar approach and distribution of touches here as the Lions will hope to score 2-3 touchdowns and grind out a home win.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game is an interesting matchup of one team which has superior talent but is struggling to find an identity against a team that is lacking in personnel but has been getting the most out of what they have to work with. As noted in the Game Overview section, the Eagles have scored 20+ points in all but one game this year. However, that stat is slightly misleading as they have reached that 20 point threshold with some meaningless late-game TDs on multiple occasions. On the other side, Detroit has only scored 20+ points one time this season and Philadelphia’s defense has been very good against below-average competition this year. 

Both teams are unlikely to have explosive games through the air, as Philadelphia’s passing game has been a complete mess while the Eagles pass defense presents a tough matchup for Detroit. Both teams have a greater chance for success on the ground as the Eagles rank 8th in rushing offense DVOA and 29th in rushing defense DVOA. What this sets up is a game where both teams are unlikely to be efficient if they take a pass-heavy approach while the game clock will move quickly, limit possessions, and slow the game down if these teams take the “path of least resistance” by running at a high rate. In any scenario, the lack of explosiveness on the Lions side and lack of efficiency for the Eagles passing game limits the chances of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is the worst game environment on the slate for DFS
• Justin Fields doesn’t look ready for the NFL
• Eli Mitchell is a TD/Yardage back that is priced below his chance at 100 yards and a TD
• Herbert was a bell cow last week and is mispriced for his role

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers come into this game a disappointing 2-4, off the back of four straight losses to the Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals/Colts. While none of those opponents are pushovers, a team that is going to contend can’t go 0-4 in those games. Kyle Shanahan runs “his offense” more than he adapts to relentlessly attack an opponent’s weakness. That is because Shanny’s teams have always run “his offense” well, and a well-run Shanahan offense is hard to stop. This year’s edition of the Shanahan offense has left a lot to be desired. The 49ers want to run the ball, and their opponent sets up well to be run against. The Bears have been solid against the pass (7th in DVOA) but more susceptible on the ground (17th in DVOA), creating a mini run funnel. That setup is music to Shanahan’s ears as he will gladly keep his QB under 30 attempts if game flow allows. Expect the 49ers to come out at their usual slow pace (23rd situational natural) and try to grind the Bears down on the ground, while mixing in play-action to keep them off balance.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Bears playoff hopes are starting to fade as they are coming off two straight losses, including a 38-3 pasting at the hands of the loaded Bucs. Matt Nagy did his best to let Justin Fields attack the relative weakness of the Bucs defense and was rewarded with 184 yards and three picks. Fields doesn’t look ready for the NFL and it’s going to be difficult for this coaching staff to compete unless their QB makes large improvements. The Bears eventually “gave up” and preferred to say balanced, despite the vast gap on the scoreboard.

The Bears have played slow (26th in Situational neutral pace) to hide their deficiencies at QB. Matt Nagy is in a tough spot. He must know that Fields can’t run his offense, but he doesn’t seem capable of adjusting his offense to work for Fields. The 49ers defense is ranked about the same against the run (10th in DVOA) as they are against the pass (13th in DVOA) so the matchup shouldn’t tilt the Bears away from trying to hide Fields. Expect another game in which Nagy hopes to win by running the ball and playing defense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny 39.5 total, the lowest on the main slate. This is expected to be a battle between two slow-placed, running teams, that are going up against above-average defenses. Neither team is expected to push the pace, or force aggression from the other. The expected result is likely a slow grind-it-out affair in which it is very possible neither QB attempts more than 30 passes. There aren’t many paths that lead to this game opening up since Chicago desperately wants to hide their QB, and SF will be happy to win on defense, and on the ground.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• At what point do we just consider the Panthers a very NFL average team on both sides of the ball? Because I’m just about there
• It appears as if the only player we should regard as having any semblance of weekly floor for Carolina is DJ Moore.
• The field is likely to play this game poorly (we’ll discuss this more below)
• One of DJ Moore or Chuba Hubbard, and one of Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley, or Cordarrelle Patterson are likely to pop for a nice game here. The problem is that it is maddening trying to figure out where it will come from

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

As soon as we think we figure out the Panthers, they show us head-scratching usage, wild play-calling, and inconsistent quarterback play. Here’s what we know: Chuba Hubbard is likely capped at around 65% of the offensive snaps (when we then pair that with the realization that the Panthers defense is more of a middling defense rather than a top-end unit, we’re left with a likeliest range of opportunities of 18-22 weekly); DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are the only near-every-down players on the offense; Robby and Sam Darnold have struggled to hook up all year; Ian Thomas and rookie tight end Tommy Tremble eat into each other’s workload, targets, and snap rates; Brandon Zylstra is on IR; and rookie wide receiver Terrace Marshall, Jr. has yet to practice with his concussion. The Panthers play at a middling pace of play, hold a middling pass rate on the season, and utilize 11-personnel at an above-average rate. With all of that considered, paired with their 22nd ranked 20.9 points scored per game, it leads me to the realization and conclusion that maybe this offense can only support one fantasy relevant asset on a weekly basis. That asset is typically DJ Moore. 

The ground game, the one that used to be almost entirely Christian McCaffrey’s, is now closer to a loose timeshare than it is a workhorse situation. Chuba Hubbard has seen 47%, 65%, 65%, and 53% snap rates in the four games without CMC. Newcomer Royce Freeman has emerged as the de facto change of pace back, typically playing 20 to 35% of the offensive snaps. A standard range of outcomes with respect to expected usage puts Hubbard in the 18 to 22 opportunity range. The matchup this week yields a below-average 4.14 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Atlanta defense allowing 26.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Until we see the snap share increase for Hubbard, we are resigned to viewing him as your run-of-the-mill lead back in today’s changing NFL scene.

As alluded to above, we can really only count on DJ Moore to see both volume and production on a weekly basis in this offense. Even with a standard range of pass attempts of 35-39, quarterback Sam Darnold appears incapable of running a functional offense. He has more interceptions on the season than he does passing scores, has fumbled the football five times (only two were lost), and although he has hit the passing bonus three times, the most passing yards he has on the season is 305. That said, if ever there were a game where he could raise his per game passing average, this would be it. The Falcons allow a lofty 250.6 passing yards per game and over 27 points per game, with the elaborate defensive scheme brought in by Dean Pees yet to translate to the scoreboard. DJ Moore has seen double-digit looks in five of seven games and leads the team in team target market share (29.1%), share of team air yards (38.6%), and average yards after the catch (5.2). Take a minute and go check out Robby Anderson’s RotoWire page. Or, maybe don’t, if you don’t want to be depressed. His 84.4 average air yards per game ranks in the top 10% in the league, but his 36.7% catch rate is the lowest in the league (of qualified wide receivers); his YAC stands at an abysmal 3.4 yards per reception, and his 12.2% drop rate ranks towards the bottom of the league. As the only other near every-down player on the team, the underlying metrics can only be described as depressing. 

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

This Atlanta team is finally figuring out how to best utilize the offensive personnel on hand, as Cordarrelle Patterson out-snapped (and continued to out-produce) backfield-mate Mike Davis in Week 7. Seeing a team place their best play-makers on the field over more established vets, regardless of their reasoning, is a welcomed sight. Rookie phenom Kyle Pitts has been used all over the formation, playing the second-highest rate of snaps lined up in the slot or out wide of any tight end in the league (second to only Mike Gesicki, who is also a “tight end” by label but a wide receiver by trade). With Russel Gage now healthy again, the primary play-makers that the Falcons can field are the top play-makers on the roster. Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Russel Gage all played over 63% of the offensive snaps in Week 7, a situation that should continue moving forward. The driving forces behind the weekly approach from this offense revolve around Matt Ryan’s aging arm and a defense that has allowed the third-most points per game in the league (29.3). With that understanding, we can begin to see why Atlanta has attempted the third-most passes per game (41.2) while putting up only the 10^th most pass yards per game and scoring only 22.5 points per game (19^th in the league). Overall, the Falcons have the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate and play at the league’s 11^th fastest situation-neutral pace of play.

The breakdown in running back usage took a sharp turn in Patterson’s favor over the last two weeks, as he saw 23 and 19 “running back” opportunities to 18 and four for Mike Davis. Head coach Arthur Smith explained the decreasing usage as game flow dependent, but the truth of the matter is the Falcons are unlikely to see many positive game scripts for the rest of the season. Their three wins have come with a combined 10-point victory margin, while their three losses have come with a 53-point combined margin of loss. Davis is unlikely to see only four opportunities again all season, but we have to think the tides are shifting a bit when we consider Patterson has been the more efficient player all year. The matchup on the ground yields a paltry 3.99 net-adjusted line yards metric against the team allowing the fewest fantasy points against per game to the running back position.

Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in snaps played, aDOT, catch rate, and drop rate, while ranking second in team target market share and team air yards share. This kid is for real. He has still yet to out-target Calvin Ridley, but his efficiency leaves Ridley’s in the dust. Speaking of Ridley, who has seen eight or more targets in every game played, double-digit looks in all but one game, and double-digit fantasy points in every game played, we have yet to see the true ceiling this season out of him. Ridley and Pitts should be considered the 1A and 1B, with Patterson the 2 on this offense, who has seen five or more targets in five consecutive games. Behind those three, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst should be considered tertiary options on most weeks, with Gage the likeliest to provide fantasy utility. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game is an interesting study as the Panthers tilt run-funnel on defense and the Falcons clearly tilt pass-heavy on offense, while the Falcons can be beaten any which way on defense but the Panthers are a highly inefficient offense (28^th-ranked drive success rate). This provides a game environment with a wide range of potential outcomes, with either team equally likely to be the driving force behind the game environment as a whole. The two game flows with basically an equally as likely chance of happening are a shootout and a slugfest, with either team dominating this game highly unlikely. That leads to a situation where the most optimal ways of playing the game are to either stack it up or avoid it completely; there really is not much room for the in-between. That said, I can see this game gaining interest as far as one-offs go, giving us a solid leverage opportunity this week. 

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>

• This is the second matchup of the year for these two teams, although Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa left early in the first meeting — a 35-0 drubbing by the Bills.
• Ingredients are here for an uptempo and high-volume affair as Miami throws at the highest rate in the NFL while the Bills play at one of the fastest paces in the league.
• The Dolphins have significantly underperformed expectations this year and could be on the brink of major changes if this game gets out of hand.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Bills defense has been incredible this season. Outside of being unable to find an answer for the alien that is Derrick Henry, they have given up over 20 offensive points in only one game this year and that was in garbage time against Washington in Week 3. The Chiefs and the Titans are the only teams to have over 300 yards of total offense against the Bills this season. For reference, only four NFL teams average under 300 yards of offense per game and the Dolphins are the fifth least productive offense at 307.6 yards per game. To say that this will be tough sledding is an understatement.

Miami continues to throw at the highest situation-neutral rate in the league as they are unable to move the ball on the ground behind a porous offensive line. That line ranks 25th in the NFL in run blocking grade by PFF and dead last in pass blocking. Miami is unlikely to see their line’s play significantly improve against Buffalo’s #1 ranked defense by DVOA. Last week against Atlanta, the Falcons had defenders in the backfield on nearly every play whether it was a run or pass. For comparison’s sake, Atlanta is the 30th ranked DVOA defense. Miami will likely have little choice but to continue throwing the ball at a high rate and will need to get the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly if they want to keep him upright. The Dolphins inability to contain the Bills pass rush in Week 2 is what resulted in his injury that cost him several weeks and the possibility that he takes a similar pounding here is very real. The Dolphins do have some playmakers among their skill players, but this Bills defense was built specifically with the Chiefs in mind and their scheme and personnel are tailored to neuter pass-heavy offenses.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo’s offense is built around their passing game and with the loss of tight end Dawson Knox (who was in the midst of a breakout season), they will likely lean into even more four wide receiver personnel that should keep that pass rate high. The Bills passing game has actually been slightly down by their standards this season, but their best performances have been against bottom-tier pass defenses of the Chiefs, Titans, and Washington. The Dolphins present a similar matchup as they enter this game ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed. 

The Bills start a stretch of games here against incredibly weak opponents with their next three games being against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets — teams with a combined record of 3-16. The Bills will want to make quick work of these opponents and play clean games that allow them to give their stars rest late in blowouts, rest that will be very valuable in a 17 game season. Buffalo will try exploiting matchups all over the field by spreading the Dolphins out and peppering their elite separators at the wide receiver position against Miami’s man-heavy coverage. Miami’s run defense has actually been better than perceived as they have the 9th graded run defense by PFF and the Bills preference is to pass anyways. The loss of Dawson Knox will hurt the Bills running game efficiency while also promoting more spread sets. The Bills are an analytics-based team and have shown the willingness to abandon the run completely early in games if they feel they can throw the ball all over the yard effectively — something they have a good chance of doing here. The Bills have scored 40+ points in both of their home games since Week 1 after being shut down at home by the Steelers.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We should expect an aggressive mindset from the Bills early in this game as they come off their bye following a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Titans in Week 6. The Dolphins played in London in Week 6 and did not have a bye the following week, something that is very rare. While the Dolphins were able to fight to the end at home against a mediocre (at best) Falcons team, a road date with the juggernaut Bills presents a big challenge and potential meltdown as the physical toll of the travel and time change finally catches up to them. 

The likeliest game flow here has the Bills taking it to the Dolphins early through the air and the Dolphins also throwing at a high rate, though they will likely have very limited success. As the game moves on, the Bills are likely to move more toward the run game as their lead grows and they try to “survive and advance” with a comfortable, injury-free win. The matchup on paper of a fast-paced, high powered offense against a pass-happy bottom-feeder sets up for an extremely high play volume game while there is also the risk of this game disappointing if Buffalo is able to pump the brakes early and Miami is unable to sustain any offensive drives — a scenario that we saw play out the first time these teams played in Week 2 in Miami.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Strength on strength matchup for the Chargers offense against the Patriots defense, and borderline weakness against borderline weakness matchup for the Patriots offense against the Chargers defense.
• This leaves this game with one of the wider range of potential outcomes on the slate when it comes to likeliest game flow.
• We should expect the Patriots to bias towards the run for as long as they remain within striking distance; the problem with that is they refuse to give any one running back more than 18-20 opportunities on a standard week.
• Likeliest game scenario keeps the Patriots in the driver seat with respect to game flow and pace, decreasing the likelihood this game pops for volume and offensive production.

How NEw England Will Try To Win ::

For all the concentration by both the media and fantasy industry on the Patriots propensity to run the football, their 13^th-ranked situation neutral pass rate of 61% (the same pass rate as the Eagles) begins to tell a slightly different story. Their 19^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and 18^th-ranked overall pace of play also would surprise most. Josh McDaniels has always been a coordinator adept at tailoring his offense to the strengths of his signal caller, and this year is no different. We’ve seen an offense built heavily around 21- and 12-personnel alignments (17% and 19%, respectively), timing, the power run game, and pre-snap misdirection. Bill Belichick has remained one of the best game managers in the league, routinely keeping his team in a position to win games and doing so with a rookie signal-caller. Three of the Patriots four losses have been by two points or less or come in overtime, which is a rather large testament to what this team has been able to accomplish with their first-year quarterback.

Regardless of the outcomes up to this point, the run game remains a weekly head-scratcher as far as expected usage goes. Rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson has bounced between the active and inactive list, Damien Harris has led the room in the overall snap rate but has seen 19 or more running back opportunities in just two of seven games, Brandon Bolden has been tasked with filling the pass game role vacated by James White, and JJ Taylor has filled the primary change of pace duties behind Harris, but only when Stevenson is inactive. Woof city. Furthermore, the Patriots rank just 24^th in yards per carry behind an offensive line creating only the 22^nd-ranked adjusted line yards at 4.10. The good news here is that their opponent for Week 8 filters opposing teams to the ground through a heavy run-funnel defensive scheme. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.53 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered the best matchup the Patriots have seen on the ground to date.

Quarterback Mac Jones has quietly thrown for the ninth most yards in the league at a non-terrible 7.6 intended air yards per pass attempt clip. That IAY/PA value still ranks in the bottom half of the league, but McDaniels and Jones have shown the combined play calling and arm ability to attack the intermediate areas of the field. Slot-man Jakobi Meyers leads the team in snap rate by a significant margin, but his snaps have trailed off over the previous two games after being a borderline every-down wide receiver to start the year. Nelson Agholor checks in second in snaps and team target market share amongst the wide receivers, but his hefty 15.3 aDOT has come with a low 52.8% catch rate and low 3.4 average YAC. Expect Kendrick Bourne, who actually checks in second amongst pass-catchers in fantasy points scored, and N’Keal Harry to round out the receiving corps, while tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith complete the pass-catching corps. Nothing has changed from our previous exploration of this tight end unit, with Henry doubling the number of routes of Jonnu, but leading him in targets by only one. The big picture with this unit is it is difficult to confidently project weekly volume and the matchup this week tilts extremely run-heavy against a run-funnel opposing defense. 

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

We know the Chargers play with pace (quickest situation-neutral pace of play in the league) and we know they utilize heavy pass rates (fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate in the league) and we know the Chargers are capable of erupting in perceived difficult spots (see their game against the Browns), but this team floats around the middle of the pack in points per game at 24.7 and has seen only moderate success in the red zone (15th-ranked 61.54% red zone touchdown rate). Their fifth-ranked drive success rate includes an eighth-ranked point per drive value (2.55) and they have run 71 or more offensive plays in all but two games. Considering the matchup, the pace-down nature of their opponent (yes, every other team is technically a pace-down matchup), and the extremely run-funnel nature of their own defense, we’re left with a situation where it is likeliest the Chargers fall short of their 11^th-ranked 66.2 plays per game average.

On the ground, Austin Ekeler typically resides in the 60-65% snap rate range and has seen five or more targets in every game since the Week 1 outlier in which he saw zero targets. 13-15 rush attempts and five to seven targets should be considered his standard range of outcomes as far as expected opportunities go, and he carries an inflated weekly ceiling due to his heavy red zone role (seven touchdowns in the team’s first six games). Behind Ekeler, expect Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson to fill modest change of pace roles. The matchup on the ground yields a modest 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combine for a 47.5% team target market share, while Austin Ekeler adds 12.9% as well (Mike Williams got in a limited practice Wednesday following a bye week after he was injured in Week 6). Jaylen Guyton typically resides in the 55-60% snap rate range and is utilized in a deep role, while rookie Joshua Palmer plays only a modest role on this offense. Tight ends Jared Cook and Donald Parham split snaps at a near-even rate. Cook has run more than double the routes as Parham (183 to 71), but each is involved enough to limit the upside of their position-mate. The Patriots cut down on the league average in completion rate allowed but allow below average yards per pass attempt and yards allowed per completion.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We’re likeliest to see the Patriots begin the game looking to control the pace, tempo, and flow via an above-average defense (14th in DVOA against both the pass and the run), a moderate pace of play, and inflated rush rates. We know McDaniels will both tailor his base offense to the personnel available to him and take the opponent into account when game planning for each game. The clearest way to squeeze out a victory here is for the Patriots to bias ground-heavy against a run-funnel defensive unit and keep the ball away from the high-octane offense of the Chargers. This would lower the total number of offensive plays from both sides here (the Chargers rank 11^th in plays per game at 66.2 while the Patriots rank 19^th at 62.3). The moderate expected total plays and “prevent” defenses from each team provide a game environment likely to bias all players towards efficiency and touchdowns for their fantasy utility, making most players high-variance plays this week.

The Chargers should be considered the team likeliest to alter that expected likeliest game flow, but the chances of them going up by multiple scores early are fairly low. The Patriots maintain their defensive philosophy from years prior, where they are fine allowing production between the twenties (eighth-most plays allowed per drive) but crack down in the red zone (seventh-fewest points allowed per drive and ninth-best red zone touchdown rate allowed). This has a high percentage chance of keeping the Patriots within striking distance for the duration of the game, likely leading to a situation where the Patriots can continue to try and slow the game down against the team leading the league in situation-neutral pace of play.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>

• Seattle is a completely different team without Russell Wilson.
• Jacksonville is coming off their first win of the season, which came on a last-second field goal in London against the Dolphins.
• This is a unique situation with one team (Jacksonville) coming off their bye and the other (Seattle) playing on a short week after losing to the Saints on Monday Night Football.
• This game likely has a narrow range of outcomes from a scoring standpoint, as both defenses are poor enough that each team should score some points but neither offense is explosive enough to have much expectation for either team to score 30+ points.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville has changed routes over the course of the season, as injuries have condensed the workloads of their skill players and they have become much more balanced on offense while handing James Robinson the clear feature back role he enjoyed last season. The Jaguars have the 2nd ranked DVOA rushing offense (shocking for a 1-5 team) and will look to pound the rock in this spot. Seattle’s defense has played well since losing Russell Wilson and has given them chances at the end of games. We should expect that the Jaguars will lean on their running game here and they will likely try to “keep it close” and not make mistakes until late in the game if a change in approach is needed. 

The Jaguars passing game has become more efficient as they have established their strong running game over the past several weeks. While I don’t necessarily expect them to be overly aggressive in this spot, Trevor Lawrence was one of the highest touted QB prospects we have ever seen coming out and is coming off his first win. Rookie QBs often take some time to settle into the NFL and we could see him start to become the QB we expected as he comes out of the bye week. It would not be shocking to see Lawrence and the passing game have success moving the ball this week. Jacksonville should have moderate success moving the ball and sustaining drives, while it may be tough for them to punch those drives in for TDs against a feisty Seahawks defense.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Seattle has turned into a shell of themselves since Russel Wilson’s injury, scoring only 47 total points in the last three games. Prior to that, the Seahawks were averaging a robust 26.75 points per game despite facing a solid schedule. With their Week 7 game against the Saints being played in significant rain, they only threw the ball 22 times, and, outside of a bomb to DK Metcalf in the first quarter, only had 83 passing yards the rest of the game.

We should expect slightly more passing from the Seahawks this week as they face the Jaguars dead last pass defense (32nd in DVOA). That being said, Geno Smith has not impressed over the last three weeks and it is unlikely that the highly competitive Pete Carroll truly puts the game in Geno’s hands here as the Seahawks season is hanging on by a thread as they sit at 2-5 through seven weeks. The Seahawks have a bye in Week 9 and Russell Wilson is eligible to return from IR against the Packers in Week 10, so a win here would be critical for their chances of staying alive and regrouping for the stretch run. The “big picture” is critical here as the Seahawks truly have to approach this with a “One Week Season” mentality and will be taking this game much more seriously than they likely expected to need to when they first saw the schedule. Seattle will try to “establish the run” here, with their low volume passing focused on their primary pass-catchers as well as some short-area work for their ancillary pieces. Without Russell Wilson to make elite throws and create offense when things break down, Seattle will need to rely on their scheme to open things up for Geno Smith.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This sets up as a slow-paced game as the Jags and Seahawks rank 22nd and 25th, respectively, in situation-neutral pass rate over the last three weeks. The Jaguars were playing at a relatively fast pace the first three weeks and also throwing at a high rate, but have pumped the brakes significantly over the last few weeks. Both offenses are likely to move the ball with decent success this week. However, there is a very real chance that this turns into a field goal contest as the Seahawks have been solid at “bend but don’t break” defense and without a strong running game or a high degree of trust in Geno Smith, the Seahawks may also struggle in the red zone. Lack of red zone success and play calling that keeps the clock running on both sides of the ball is not a recipe for a very exciting game flow, although we have seen crazier things.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game could produce more points than the total is predicting
• The game flow will be dictated by how aggressive the Broncos want to play
• Both backfields are timeshares
• Teddy Bridgewater offers plenty of “cheap QB” appeal

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The 2-5 Football Team is coming into Week 8 with quickly fading hopes for their season. Ron Rivera is one of the more aggressive head coaches in the league but it’s hard to win games in the NFL with a replacement-level QB. The WFT is fresh off losses to the Packers/Chiefs/Saints, none of which were competitive contests. Regardless of their roster’s shortcomings, this coaching staff will “try to win” and has thrown the ball nearly 40 times a game during those three losses. The Football Team pushes the pace (6th situational neutral), and throw a lot doing so, but they just don’t have the talent to be an above-average team.

This week they draw a disappointing Broncos defense that has been attackable on the ground (26th in DVOA) and through the air (24th in DOVA). With no clear path of least resistance to tilt the game plan heavily away from their usual strategy, expect the Football Team to come out playing fast and aggressively, with the hopes that something will click. Rivera knows that his defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone and that his offense will need to score points if his team is going to be in games. 

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Broncos come into this game riding a four-game losing streak against the Ravens/Steelers/Raiders/Browns. In a division that includes the Chiefs and Chargers, this Broncos team already has to be in must-win mode. The Broncos prefer to play slow (29th in situational neutral pace) which teams typically do when they want to “hide their QB” and allow their defenses to win games. This Broncos team profiled that way to begin the year, but their defense has been disappointing, and Teddy Bridgewater has been what he’s always been, good enough. The Broncos would be wise to give Bridgewater a little more leeway to run a quicker, more aggressive offense, designed to score the points that it requires to win with a vulnerable defense. There is no indication that the Broncos plan to change their game plan, which means we can expect a slow-paced, balanced offense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 43-point total, mostly because of the way the Broncos play. The Football Team is a team that is likely to produce shootouts (or at least good DFS scores). That’s because they have a defense that can’t stop anyone through the air (29th in DVOA) while being strong against the run (8th in DVOA), creating one of the clearest pass funnels in the league. The Washington Football Team is also a fast-paced, aggressive offense, that will keep trying to fight back. When the WFT faces a team with an offense that we can project to throw successfully against them, it’s easy to target players in that game. Unfortunately, the Broncos are not a team we (or Vegas) can expect to do anything other than suck the life out of this game. The most likely game flow is both teams struggle to move the ball, creating a close, low-scoring contest. 

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Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Bucs rank first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and third in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt; Saints rank first in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt and third in the league in rushing yards per game.
• Bucs rank second in situation-neutral pass rate on the season at 66% but “just” 13th in the league over the previous four weeks (a 59% rate over games against the Patriots for Tom’s return to Foxboro, a Dolphins team they beat by 28 points, the run-funnel Eagles, and the run-funnel Bears).
• We should see each team tilt pass-heavy here, with clear paths for the expected pass volume to flow.
• Although we have a wide range of potential outcomes regarding the Saints, the two most likely game flows place high emphasis on Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski (if he returns).

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Tom Brady led Buccaneers rank second in the league in situation-neutral pass rate over the full season and 13^th in the same metric over the previous four weeks. The opponents and respective game environments can largely explain the drop in pass rates over that time, with Brady’s emotional return to Foxboro, a game against the Dolphins in which they beat them by 28 points, a game against the run-funnel Eagles, and a game against the run-funnel Bears making up their last four contests. That said, Brady has a season-low in pass attempts of 36 (last week in a blowout win and Week 2 against Atlanta in a blowout win) with all other games checking in with a minimum of 41 pass attempts. The two neutral to negative game script games were in the Week 1 narrow victory over the Cowboys and their only loss of the season versus the Rams; these games led to 50 and 55 pass attempts. It is clear the Buccaneers will remain aggressive for as long as it is deemed necessary by both Brady and head coach Bruce Arians. Their matchup with the Saints this week hints at a return to a more pass-heavy game plan against a defense stout against the run (second in DVOA against the run and third in rushing yards allowed per game), with the ceiling in pass attempts dictated by game flow and how many offensive plays the Bucs can run from scrimmage and score on the scoreboard.

Week 7 marked the triumphant return of Ke’Shawn Vaughn to Tampa Bay’s rushing matrix (I kid) in a game the Buccaneers had in hand at the half. On a standard week, we should expect Leonard Fournette to reside in the 60 to 65% snap rate range, which has ballooned his running back opportunity levels over the previous four weeks to 25, 17, 28, and 19. We already covered why we think the Bucs have shown a lower propensity to pass over the previous four weeks, which is less likely to be the case against the Saints. Boosting Fournette’s weekly floor and ceiling is a strong pass game involvement (four to seven targets in six of seven games, with the “outlier” game checking in at three targets), keeping him in the weekly “tier below bell cow status” range of running backs. His four touchdowns on the season have all come in the team’s last three games, which stands as the biggest detriment to his expected range of outcomes. Expect Ronald Jones to continue to operate as the primary change of pace back, with Giovanni Bernard forcing his way onto the field in obvious passing situations and the two-minute offense. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.11 net-adjusted line yards metric against the top-rated run defense in the league from an adjusted line yards perspective.

It appears likely the Buccaneers will remain without Antonio Brown for Week 8, who continues to deal with a “tricky ankle sprain located near the heel.” The good news for the team is the likely return to action of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has missed the previous four games with fractured ribs and a pierced lung. What took him so long to make his way back onto the field? I mean, he did finish the game in which he broke the ribs. All kidding aside, the addition of Gronkowski could not come at a better time, as Saints standout corner Marshon Lattimore has completely owned Mike Evans over the years. Lattimore has typically been held to shadow matchups on wide receivers that profile as Evans does (think your prototypical, big-bodied “X” receiver). The presence of Chris Godwin has kept Gronk in-line for the majority of his snaps this year (128 of 151 offensive snaps in-line, or 84.8%), and Tampa Bay’s heavy 11-personnel (70%) and 12-personnel (19%) rates paint a clear picture of how the pass offense likes to operate. Gronk played 88% and 81% of the offensive snaps in his two fully healthy games prior to missing a few series in Week 3, but it remains to be seen how often he would see the field in his first game back. Considering the relative lack of production seen from the tight end position in the absence of Gronk, I’d expect him to play as many snaps as his health will allow should he return this week. OJ Howard played over 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the last four games but saw more than three targets only once, while Cameron Brate saw 55% or more of the offensive snaps in three of the last four games but caught only six of the 15 targets over that span. For comparison, Gronk caught 12 of his 13 targets over the first two games of the season and scored four touchdowns. Tyler Johnson delivered on my expectation for him to almost directly step into Antonio Brown’s vacated role, which could see a level of uncertainty introduced this week with the potential return of Scottie Miller.  

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Note: Mark Ingram has been traded to the Saints but this doesn’t change much with regard to Kamara’s expected usage.

The Saints represent one of the most interesting studies when trying to analyze how they will try to win this game. We’ve seen both “good Jameis” and “bad Jameis” this season. We’ve seen the Saints open up the offense a bit over the previous two weeks against opponents best attacked through the air, and we know head coach Sean Payton is one of the better game planners and game managers in the league. This creates a wide range of potential outcomes for the Saints, considering the Bucs are so very clearly best attacked through the air (fewest opponent rush attempts per game, first in yards allowed per carry to opposing running backs, 18^th in DVOA against the pass). We could see Payton come out firing, with a game plan designed to take the game to the Bucs. We could see Payton rely on Kamara heavily, as he’s done over the previous four weeks – both on the ground and through the air. And we could see the game plan rendered useless with “bad Jameis.” Although a seemingly small transition, the Saints hold a situation-neutral pass rate increase of 9% over their previous two games when compared to their seasonal average. That’s a pretty drastic increase, and it directly correlates to competitive games against teams best attacked through the air. I don’t think it’s farfetched to project Jameis for his highest pass attempts of the season here, which should land in the 36-38 pass attempt range.

The ground game has run almost entirely through Alvin Kamara, but the matchup yields a startling 4.02 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent that leads the league in opponent rushing allowed. The interesting part comes in the form of Kamara’s pass game usage over the previous two games, games where it made sense that he saw increased usage. This week presents another matchup that would make sense for him to see increased pass game usage (19 targets over the previous two contests). In total, we should expect between 25 and 30 running back opportunities for Kamara against an opponent filtering the third-most targets to opposing backfields. 

Through the air, the primary answer is once again Alvin Kamara, who leads the team in targets as well. The matchup very clearly tilts the expectation towards a pass-heavy attack for the Saints here, but the extent of that increase remains up to Sean Payton’s game plan, the effectiveness of Jameis, and the game flow. The Bucs are reeling on the back end with injuries and ineffective play, presenting an opportunity for one of the ancillary pass-catchers (yes, everyone not named Kamara is an ancillary pass-catcher in this offense) to assert themselves here. Marquez Callaway and Adam Trautman see the field the most, but Trautman has run a staggeringly low 62 routes this season and Callaway holds a disgusting 57.1% catch rate on the season. Each can hit in an aggressive game plan, but the respective floors are low here. Behind those two, the return of Tre’Quan Smith led to a near-even split in snaps with Kenny Stills, each of whom remained largely ineffective.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Based on the analytics and tendencies shown by each team up to this point, we’re likely to see both tilt more pass-heavy here. That could spell trouble for the Saints considering the borderline bipolar stat lines exhibited by quarterback Jameis Winston this season: two games of 70% completion rate or better, two games that he combined for nine touchdowns, but three of six games with a 55% completion rate or worse, three of six games with one touchdown pass or fewer, and only two of six games with more than 23 pass attempts. The wide range of outcomes associated with the quarterback of the Saints leaves us with a game environment that has the greatest chance of being driven by the Tom Brady-led Bucs, who are likeliest to return to a pass-heavy approach against a defense that is nails against the run. This would, in turn, force increased pass attempts from Winston and the Saints, leading to more opportunities for both splash plays and mistakes.

At the same time, I wouldn’t completely rule out Sean Payton and the Saints coming out firing against what should be their stiffest test of the season. The term “measuring stick” is a bit misleading and overused, but this game carries a fairly direct correlation for how we can assume the Saints are viewing their Week 8 opponent. If that ends up being the case, and the Saints come out firing aggressively through the air, this game would have all the makings of a true shootout-style matchup.

Finally, when two of the top defenses in the league meet, there is always the possibility we see a slugfest, but I would consider that the lowest probability chance of happening here. The two highest likelihood game flows involve the Saints coming out firing through the air and finding success, or the Bucs taking an early lead and forcing the Saints into increased aerial aggression as the game progresses.

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