Week 8 Matchups

Kickoff Thursday, Oct 28th 8:20pm Eastern

Packers (
22.25) at

Cards (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass


Week 8 is here and so is a new Showdown writeup! Thursday night brings us a game that looked really exciting to start but has turned weird (though still exciting) thanks to two of Green Bay’s top receivers, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, being put on the Covid list. It’s possible Davante could be cleared in time to play (since he’s vaccinated, he needs two negative tests 24 hours apart to be cleared which is unlikely but theoretically possible), while Lazard is unvaccinated and definitely out, as he’s required to be away . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
27.25) at

Jets (

Over/Under 43.0


Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Jets projected QB is a 5th round rookie who has barely stuck in the NFL
  • Michael Carter is underpriced for his role
  • The biggest obstacle to the Bengals success is game flow
  • Joe Mixon has been in a timeshare the past two weeks

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The 5-2 Bengals are riding high, coming off a 41-17 thrashing of division rival Baltimore. It’s been a long time since the Bengals were atop the AFC North, but atop is currently where this better-than-expected Bengals squad sits. The Bengals appear legitimately good, having won confidently against the Steelers/Ravens/Lions, and having gone 2-2 in close games against the Vikings/Bears/Jags/Packers. It feels as amazing to write this as it probably does to read, but the Bengals are just two three-point losses away from being undefeated. 

Zac Taylor deserves a lot of credit for his approach on offense. The Bengals play consistently slow (32nd in situational neutral pace/31st in pace when trailing/25th in pace when winning) but are running a lot of efficient plays. Joe Burrow was limited to 30/18/32/32 pass attempts through the first four weeks before seeing 38/29/38 attempts the past three games, with the 29 attempts coming against the Lions in a game the Bengals controlled throughout. It looks like the Bengals coaching staff is gaining trust in Burrow as he gains confidence coming back from a significant injury. The Jets are attackable on the ground (27th in DVOA) and through the air (28th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance against a defense that is nothing but least resistance, expect the Bengals to play similarly to how they did against the Lions in Week 6. In that game, the Bengals allowed Burrow to throw enough to build an early lead, before coasting to an easy victory up 20-0 to start the fourth quarter. The real surprise of this Bengals team has been the defense, and this profiles as a game where they can let their defense control the game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets franchise QB Zach Wilson is expected to miss a few weeks with a sprained PCL, and that is very good news for the Jets chances to win games. Zach “frightened child” Wilson looks like he can’t hack it at the NFL level. You hate to say that about a top pick after only seven games, but those seven games have revealed a lot about where Wilson is in terms of developing as a professional QB. When rookie QBs are going to be good, it’s common to see them make mistakes alongside big plays during their first year as they adjust to the speed of the NFL game. Peyton Manning’s 26 TD, 28 INT, 56.7% completion percentage rookie campaign is an excellent example. 28 INTS would be the most Manning ever thew, and 56.7% would be the lowest completion percentage of his career. While it took Manning a year to fully adjust to the NFL, it was clear in his rookie year that big plays were going to happen with him under center. When a rookie QB isn’t going to be good, he looks like Zach Wilson.

The Jets recently traded for Joe Flacco, but it’s hard to think the Jets will start a QB they traded for mid-week. Flacco does have a familiarity with this offense already from last year, and it shouldn’t take much time getting caught up for him to be ready. Since Flacco was just added, it makes sense to approach this game as if Mike White will be calling the signals for New York, but it wouldn’t but totally shocking for news to break later in the week that Flacco is going to start. The Jets draw an upstart Bengals defense that is stuffing the run (5th in DVOA) and limiting passing (8th in DOVA). The Jets are likely to struggle to move the ball. The Jets play slow (25th in situational neutral place) unless they are ahead (2nd in pace when leading), but there is no reason to think the Jets will be winning. With no clear path of least resistance, and White currently projected under center, expect the Jets to try and remain balanced, hoping something breaks their way early to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bengals will be a popular eliminator league selection this week, having been installed as large 10-point road favorites. While 10 points is nothing to sneeze at in an NFL game, it still feels low. The Jets just lost their “franchise QB” and are going to be starting a guy most people will have to Google. Mike White was a 2018 fifth-round pick that was cut by the Cowboys and spent most of 2019/2020 bouncing around the Jets practice squad . . . says Google. The most likely game flow feels highly likely in what is expected to be a lopsided affair. The Bengals should take an early lead in whichever manner they see fit, before pumping the breaks and coasting to an easy victory in the fourth quarter. 



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Cincy leads the AFC North after a 41-17 dismantling of Baltimore
  • CIN’s team totals: 27 // 17 // 24 // 24 // 22 // 34 // 41
  • NYJ’s lone win came in an overtime game against the Titans in Week 4
  • Outside of that 27 point outing, here are the team totals for NYJ: 14 // 6 // 0 // 20 // 13
  • The 43 Vegas total, as of Tuesday evening, is tied for third lowest
  • The spread opened at CIN -8.5 and has since moved two full points to -10.5

Joe Burrow

  • Burrow ranks eighth in PFF passing grade
  • The Bengals rank 10th in adjusted pass rate, per numberFire
  • DK log: 18.64 // 13.28 // 18.58 // 25.32 // 20.34 // 23.84 // 30.64
  • NYJ ranks eighth against QBs (18.5)

CIN Passing Attack

  • CIN uses 11 personnel at a 69% rate and 12 personnel at 20%
  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 85.6% // CJ Uzomah 76.6% // Tyler Boyd 73.5% // Tee Higgins 53.6%
  • Target share: Chase 23.9% // Boyd 21.1% // Higgins 20.2% // Uzomah 8.9%
  • Chase’s 754 receiving yards are first all time among rookie WRs through seven games
  • He ranks second in rec yards, eighth in air yards, 14th in target share, third in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • His 22.2 DK ppg rank fifth
  • Chase’s DK log: 23.9 // 13.4 // 22.5 // 13.7 // 30.9 // 13.7 // 37.1
  • His salary cost started the year at $4,800 and has now risen to $7,500
  • Boyd’s salary reached a high of $5,400 in Week 6 but has now dropped to $4,800
  • His 6.1 ADoT ranks seventh lowest among qualifying WRs
  • His DK log: 6.2 // 14.3 // 13.6 // 23.8 // 6.4 // 1.7 // 7.9
  • Higgins ranks 12th in target share and 17th in WOPR
  • His 9.9 ADoT is tied for 35th lowest
  • DK log: 15.8 // 17 // 10.2 // 7.4 // 13.2
  • NYJ ranks second against WRs in DK ppg allowed (29.6)
  • Uzomah’s DK log: 5.5 // 2.4 // 26.5 // 3.6 // 10.5 // 24.1
  • NYJ ranks 25th against TEs (17.1)

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon leads the team with a 63.3% snap share, 7.5% target share, and 19.4 touches per game
  • Mixon averaged 4.3 targets last season
  • That’s down to 2.3 this year
  • DK log: 28 // 8.1 // 10.4 // 13.7 // 10.5 // 26.3 // 11.9
  • NYJ allows the most DK ppg to the RB position (39.7)

Mike White

  • With Zach Wilson hurt, NYJ brought back Joe Flacco
  • But they’re rolling with Mike White in Week 8, who is evidently an NFL QB
  • White received a 45.3 PFF passing grade in his appearance against New England
  • He has a $5,000 salary in Week 8
  • No NYJ QB has hit 20 DK pts this season
  • They only managed three 20+ performances last season, and none that were 24+
  • CIN ranks 10th against QBs (18.9)

NYJ Passing Attack

  • NYJ uses 11 personnel at 61% and 12 personnel at 27%
  • Snap share: Corey Davis 81.3% // Ryan Griffin 65.5% // Elijah Moore 53.2% // Tyler Kroft 44.7% // Braxton Berrios 38.2% // Keelan Cole 36.4% // Jamison Crowder 33.2%
  • Target share: Davis 19.7% // Moore 12.2% // Berrios 10.8% // Crowder 9.9% // Griffin 8% // Cole 5.2%
  • Davis ranks 15th in air yards and 23rd in air yard market share
  • DK log: 26.7 // 2.8 // 9.1 // 24.1 // 8.5 // 14.7
  • Crowder’s DK log: 19.1 // 8.4 // 7.4
  • No other NYJ WRs have posted a 15+ DK pt score this season
  • CIN ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.3)
  • No NYJ TE has scored 6+ pts this season
  • CIN ranks 9th against TEs (9.2)


  • Michael Carter has led the RBs in snaps and targets since Week 4
  • His touch count vs. the next highest RB on the team since then: 14-5 // 13-6 // 19-11
  • Carter ranks 19th in RBOPR, per Koalaty Stats
  • DK log: 3 // 10.8 // 4.9 // 10.4 // 14.8 // 17.4
  • CIN ranks 18th against RBs (25.3)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
24) at

Colts (

Over/Under 51.0


Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two of the top ten teams in situation-neutral rush rate.
  • Indianapolis ranks 31st in situation-neutral pace of play, while Tennesee ranks 22nd.
  • The Titans rank 18th in opponent plays per game at 63.3. The Colts rank eighth at 60.6. These two teams combined for only 129 offensive plays run from scrimmage in their last meeting in Week 3. That’s almost ten plays below the league average this season.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans continue to place games on the back (and quads) of running back Derrick Henry. They combine a moderate-to-slow pace of play (22nd in the NFL) with extreme situation-neutral rush rates (48%, fifth highest in the league). The expected offensive snaps run from scrimmage from this team varies wildly depending on how their defense performs, with five games of 68 plays or fewer, a game of 88 plays, and a game of 100 (!!!) plays (against the Jets, which was a loss – lolz). There’s nothing from a macro perspective that I can say in this space that we don’t already know of this Titans team.

From what we have seen of the Titans this season, Henry’s workload is most influenced by the game script instead of matchup, health of the offensive line, or health of other offensive personnel. Why is that important? Well, we can expect a robust workload for King Henry in all but highly negative game scripts. Henry’s snap rates are typically a tick above “lead back 1A” levels and a tick below bellcow levels, but we know when Henry is on the field, there is a good chance he is getting the football one way or the other. Expect Jeremy McNichols to work as the primary change of pace and obvious passing situation back, with Darrynton Evans now healthy and on hand to handle emergency situations. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against the number one rushing defense (by DVOA), yielding a below-average 4.24 net-adjusted line yards metric. The Titans are expecting all-world tackle Taylor Lewan back from a concussion this week, boosting the expected run-blocking effectiveness of the Tennessee offensive line.

The pass-catcher snap rates have been all over the place since Week 4 when the team started dealing with significant injuries. Last week, all of Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds, Marcus Johnson, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played 44% of the offensive snaps, with AJ Brown checking in at 62%. Furthermore, Brown has played a high of 79% of the offensive snaps over the previous three games. Anthony Firkser returned to the lineup in Week 4 and has seen at most 50% of the offensive snaps in any game since then, yielding the majority of the work to blocking tight end Geoff Swaim and typical backup MyCole Pruitt. Bringing us full circle, remember that the Titans have shown a deep propensity to ride Derrick Henry for as long as they feasibly can, making all pass-catchers ceiling-only plays due to the unknowns concerning their individual snap rates.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts should have a similar plan of attack here but are less likely to enjoy the same level of success on the ground when compared to the Titans. Somewhat quietly, this Titans defense has surrendered fewer fantasy points per game to opposing backfields than the Buccaneers (20.6 per game) but has allowed 273.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 24th in the league. Frank Reich has long been hailed as one of the sharper offensive minds in the game, fully capable and willing to adjust his game plan leading up to and during the game. That said, I have felt like something has been missing in that regard when watching this team play this season, as the clearest plan of attack has not lined up with how the Colts have looked to approach games very often this year. This introduces additional variance into Colts games since we can’t accurately project offensive game plans, meaning all players on the Colts should be treated more as wide range of outcome plays every week.

Running back Jonathan Taylor has seen between 16 and 23 running back opportunities in either extremely positive (three times) or highly competitive, back-and-forth (once) games over the previous four weeks. It was only the last matchup with the Titans where he fell below his standard range of opportunities of 16-24, giving us a good idea of what kind of workload to expect in most game scenarios. This also means his ceiling is highly reliant on multiple trips to the end zone, which theoretically could occur here but would require a neutral-to-positive game script to land in his favor. Behind Taylor, Marlon Mack has fallen almost entirely out of favor (it is likely the Colts were showcasing a possible trade pawn during his stretch of increased usage), leaving change of pace and obvious passing work to Nyheim Hines. That role has translated to a high of nine running back opportunities over the previous four weeks, but he would indeed see an increased workload should the Colts fall behind early here. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.375 net-adjusted line yards metric as this Colts offensive line has underperformed in most run-blocking metrics to start the year.

Primarily through injury, Michael Pittman has emerged as the leader of this Colts pass-catching corps, with TY Hilton appearing in only one game so far and Parris Campbell on the IR. Pittman and Zach Pascal are the only pass-catchers to enjoy near every-down usage, but quarterback Carson Wentz has not attempted more than 38 passes on the season, typically landing in the 31-35 pass attempt range (a high of only 35 pass attempts over the previous four weeks). This has left Pittman with a high of only eight targets over that time, Pascal with a high of six targets over that time, Mo Allie-Cox with a high of six targets over that time, Jack Doyle with exactly one target in each of the last four games, Nyheim Hines with a high of three targets over that time, and Jonathan Taylor with a high of four targets over that time. You get the point. This is not a high-volume pass offense. So, while the Titans can be beaten through the air, the likeliest scenario leaves Carson Wentz in the 31-35 pass attempts range to be split amongst the aforementioned pass-catchers (throw in TY Hilton, Ashton Dulin, Mike Strachan, or whatever other wide receiver carries the WR3 designation as well).

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likeliest to see a good old-fashioned divisional slugfest here, with each team likeliest to start with a ground-heavy approach. The pure matchups would tilt the Titans to the air and the Colts to the ground, but we can be fairly certain that Tennessee will continue riding King Henry for as long as the game remains competitive in either direction. Thusly, the opportunity for Tennessee pass-catchers to become true difference-makers on this slate revolves almost entirely around the low probability chance that the Colts jump out to, and maintain deep into the game, a substantial lead. When we then consider the high likelihood of less than league average offensive pays run from scrimmage here, it doesn’t leave a lot of meat on the bones for secondary and ancillary options from either team.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • 2021 TEN totals: 51 // 63 // 41 // 51 // 56 // 65 // 30
  • 2021 IND totals: 44 // 51 // 41 // 44 // 56 // 34 // 48
  • The 25-16 IND win over TEN in W3 was TEN’s only game below 50 before they shut down KC’s offense last week (3 pts allowed)
  • AJ Brown & Julio Jones both left the game early vs IND due to injury, but both fully returned vs KC in W7
  • TEN led by just one point entering the fourth quarter of that matchup
  • 2020 scores: IND W (34-17) // TEN W (45-26)

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Since TEN’s 13 pt clunker vs ARI in W1, TEN has scored 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 offensive points
  • SEA, LAR, & BAL all scored 27+ pts vs IND
  • Pass yds vs IND: 254 // 278 // 197 // 199 // 442 // 243 // 181
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 4 of his 24 starts since 2020
  • Tannehill went for 197:3:2 & 56 rush yds vs IND in W3
  • Tanny threw for just 147 & 221 yds in this matchup last year, as Darius Leonard being out opened the door for big Henry games (just 27 & 22 pass att for Tanny)
  • Before facing Mills & Jimmy G the last two weeks, IND was allowing the most fantasy pts per pass att, per TJ Hernandez
  • Tannehill’s 23.5 DK pts vs IND are his most this season
  • Tannehill had six games above that in 2020, including four 30 pt scores
  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 9 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3


  • Tgs when both Brown & Julio played full: Brown (8, 9, 9, 9) // Julio (6, 8, 5, 4)
  • Brown since returning: 3:38 // 7:91 // 8:133:1
  • IND has allowed 11 WR TDs in seven games
  • IND has allowed the 6th highest success rate and 7th highest yds/att to WRs
  • Top WR vs IND by week: Lockett (4:100:2) // Kupp (9:163:2) // Westbrook (4:53:1) // Parker (4:77:1) // Hollywood (9:125:2) // Cooks (9:89) // Deebo (7:100:1)
  • Brown went 1:21 & 4:98:1 vs IND in 2020, but also dropped a sure 70-yd TD
  • IND allowed the 15th most WR DK pts in 2020
  • IND is allowing the 9th most WR DK pts in 2021

Derrick Henry:

  • Henry’s touches in 2021: 21 // 41 // 31 // 35 // 29 // 23 // 31
  • Henry’s rush yds: 58 // 182 // 113 // 157 // 130 // 143 // 86
  • Henry had 3+ rec in each of first three weeks, but in the last four has totaled just 6 rec for 49 yds
  • RB rush yds with 10+ rush att vs IND: Carson (91) // Hendy (53:1), Michel (46) // Henry (113) // Ingram (73) // Mitchell (107:1)
  • Henry vs IND with Tanny: 26:149:1 // 19:103 // 27:178:3 // 28:113
  • Henry has scored 26+ DK pts in 11/22 of his games with Tannehill as a Favorite: 32.5 // 27.6 // 26.9 // 42.1 // 30 // 43.4 // 39.2 // 28.2 // 39 // 28.7 // 34
  • He has also scored under 10 DK pts in 5 of the other 11 games
  • Tannehill in those five games: 193:3 // 279:2, rush TD // 239:4 // 158:2 // 389:3
  • The only game of those five in which Tanny didn’t score 3 TDs included a TEN pick-6
  • At least one TEN player scored 20+ DK pts in 14/16 games in 2020
  • At least one TEN player has scored 20+ DK pts in 6/7 games in 2021: Henry (x5), Brown (x1)

Carson Wentz:

  • Wentz has 2 pass TDs in four straight, but just one game over 228 yds (402 vs BAL)
  • 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1) // Lawrence (273:1:1) // Allen (353:3:1) // KC (288:0:1)
  • TEN jumped from 27th to 18th in def pass DVOA after the KC game last week
  • Wentz wasn’t expected to play vs TEN in W3 due to injury, and it was his only game this year without a rush att


  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021
  • Seven WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8)
  • Pittman’s two games without Campbell & Hilton: 8:123 (12tg) // 4:105:1 (4tg)
  • Pittman & Pascal have a wide lead in IND WR targets with 50 & 35
  • Hilton led IND in receiving in his only game (4:80), catching a 52 yd deep ball
  • TEN has allowed the 10th highest rate of explosive passes to WRs

Jonathan Taylor:

  • RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43), Moss (39) // Williams (50)
  • Taylor’s rush att: 17 // 15 // 10 // 16 // 15 // 14 // 18
  • Taylor’s season-low 10 rush att came vs TEN
  • Hines has been used more than Taylor in both games they’ve played together vs TEN: (12:70:1, 5:45:1) vs (7:12, 2:25) // (6:25:1, 5:54) vs (10:64, 1:8)
  • Hines led Taylor in targets 16 to 9 through three games
  • Taylor has led Hines in targets 12 to 8 in the four games since
  • Taylor has topped 50 total yds in every game, and 100+ total yds in five games
  • Taylor has scored 6 TDs in the last four games
  • Taylor as a Home Favorite (yds:TD): 110:1 // 62:1 // 115 // 114 // 95:1 // 254:2 // 158:2
  • Taylor as a Home Dog (yds:TD): 34:1 // 116 // 53
  • IND is currently a 1.5 pt home dog

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
31.75) at

Texans (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • The Rams continue an extremely soft stretch in their schedule as they visit a Texans team that has lost three of its last four games by 26 or more points.
  • The Rams should be able to move the ball in any manner they choose against a Texans defense that is bottom of the league against both the run and pass.
  • The Texans will have significant struggles moving the ball against a talented and aggressive Rams defense.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams snuck out a close victory against the winless Lions in Week 7, as the Lions were deep in Rams territory with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter before a Jared Goff interception and ensuing Rams drive put them away. The Lions pulled out all the stops in that game with a big play by emerging star D’Andre Swift early, a surprise onside kick, and multiple successful fake punts — it still wasn’t enough. This game sets up similarly on paper, as both the Lions and Texans are very poor statistically, which may lead some to believe the Rams are in for a similar type of “grind it out win.” These situations are very different, however. The Lions have been playing extremely hard for Head Coach Dan Campbell and getting the most out of what little talent they have. They also had the added motivation of playing their former QB, Matthew Stafford, and supporting their new QB, Jared Goff, against his former team. Meanwhile, the Texans have been getting throttled recently (which has to hurt morale) and appear to have disrupted the locker room with the trade of Mark Ingram, given the reactions to the move by some veterans still with the team. The Deshaun Watson trade rumors (and everything encompassing that situation) are growing louder every week as the trade deadline approaches. Suffice it to say; the Texans are a bit of a mess.

The Texans rank bottom four in the NFL on offense AND defense in both run and pass DVOA. Los Angeles is 6-1 and absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball right now — they should be able to move the ball in whatever manner they prefer. Their run/pass ratio is right around the league average (58% pass), and this matchup doesn’t provide anything that should skew them away from that. Matthew Stafford is having a career year with the best supporting cast and scheme he has ever had and is answering every question critics have thrown his way over the years. Stafford is a legitimate MVP candidate, and the Rams could certainly come out very aggressive and let him rack up more stats and build on their momentum here. The Rams’ run game struggled against the Lions last week, so it would also make sense for them to try to get that back on track here against a Texans run defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in DVOA and yards per carry allowed. The Bills are the closest comparable to the Rams in terms of opponents the Texans have faced (both teams are top-5 in defensive DVOA, top-10 in offensive DVOA, top-3 in situation-neutral pace, and have similar run/pass ratios). The Bills absolutely teed off on the Texans in Week 4, to the tune of a 40-0 victory. After a sluggish effort last week against the Lions, we should fully expect the Rams to come out swinging and try to dominate this game from the start. The Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air in this matchup and should have a great deal of success doing both.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

While all signs point to a Rams smash, we still need to attempt to make a case for the Texans to keep this game competitive. The first thing we can look at is their Home/Road splits. Houston is 1-2 at home and 0-4 on the road, with their two home losses coming by an average of nine points and their four road losses being by an average of 26 points. In theory, it makes sense that a poor team like the Texans would do much better at home than on the road. Another glimmer of hope lies in the possibility that Tyrod Taylor will return at quarterback. Taylor led the Texans to their lone victory in Week 1 and had them tied with a very good Browns team at halftime of their Week 2 game prior to exiting with his hamstring injury. Taylor provides a dual-threat presence to the Texans offense that helps them sustain drives and keep their poor defense off the field longer while also taking much better care of the ball than rookie QB Davis Mills.

Houston operates at a very slow pace (25th in situation-neutral pace of play) and runs the ball at a slightly above-average rate. The trade of Mark Ingram this week should not do anything drastic to alter those splits as the Texans have several other veteran running backs who should be able to step in and mirror Ingram’s replacement level efficiency. However, the Rams defense poses an extremely difficult challenge in all areas for the Texans. The Rams have the #2 graded run defense by PFF while also ranking 4th in pass defense DVOA. While neither option is great, I do expect the Texans to lean a little more run-heavy than usual in an attempt to slow the game and limit turnovers. When the Texans do throw the ball, we should expect a lot of short-area passing in the middle of the field and screen passes. Davis Mills ranks 32nd out of 35 qualifying QBs in PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards, while the Rams defense has an extremely talented secondary and #7 graded pass rush by PFF. It is very unlikely the Texans can or will be able to attack downfield in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Rams are likely to take control of this game very early and lead throughout. The Texans lack explosive offensive pieces that could let them take control of the game early and control the tempo of the game, as the Lions were able to do last week. Houston will try to slow things down early, although they will probably not have much success in doing so. This game actually sets up very similarly to the Rams’ game in New York against the Giants from two weeks ago as the Rams should be able to move the ball at will, and the Texans simply do not have the pieces to keep up. The indoor environment also reduces the chances of fluke plays caused by weather or messing up the anticipated game script. Of the 12 games on this slate, this game is probably the most predictable in terms of game flow and outcome. The Rams are aggressive by nature and will likely stay that way into the 4th quarter, regardless of the scoreboard, with the Texans having to become more aggressive than they would like fairly early, although their “aggressive” will likely come in the form of relatively conservative passing accompanied by an elevated pace rather than a downfield attacking mindset. It is important to note that if Tyrod Taylor is able to play, that would significantly help the chances the Texans can keep this game competitive into the second half.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Stafford’s Rams have scored: 34 // 27 // 34 // 20 // 26 // 38 // 28
  • Davis Mills’ Texans have scored: 9 // 0 // 22 // 3 // 3 // 5

Matthew Stafford:

  • Stafford is averaging 310.3 yds, 2.7 TD, 0.6 INT in his first seven games with McVay
  • Only DET has faced fewer pass att/g than HOU
  • Pass att vs HOU: 51 // 24 // 34 // 30 // 30 // 20 // 28
  • Stafford’s pass att (win margin): 26 (+20) // 30 (+3) // 38 (+10) // 41 (-17) // 37 (+9) // 28 (+27) // 41 (+9)
  • Stafford has thrown 26 & 28 passes in the Rams two 20+ pt wins
  • The Rams are favored by 14.5 pts on the road vs HOU
  • HOU’s margin of victory: +16 // -10 // -15 // -40 // -3 // -28 // -26
  • Stafford’s only games as 10+ pt favorite since 2014: 27.2 // 7.9 // 22.7 // 30.2 DK pts
  • 18 of 64 QBs since 2014 on teams implied for 31+ pts have scored 30+ DK pts
  • 13 of 56 QBs since 2014 on teams favored by 14+ pts have scored 25+ DK pts (5 of 30+ DK pts)
  • Two of the five 30+ DK pt scores were Mahomes & Lamar vs the Gase-Jets in 2020 that ranked 8th in def rush DVOA but 28th in def pass DVOA
  • HOU ranks 12th in def pass DVOA and 30th in def rush DVOA


  • Kupp has finished with 90+ yds in 6/7 games: 108 // 163 // 96 // 64 // 92 // 130 // 156
  • Kupp has between 10-13 tg in every game
  • Since 2014, 7 WRs averaging 10+ tg have been 14+ pt favorites (DK pts): D Thomas (22.5) // Edelman (16.5) // A Brown (43.9) // Juju (14.7) // M Thomas (9.1) // Diggs (21.4) // Kupp (40.6)
  • Kupp in the two 20+ pt LAR Ws: 7:108:1 (10tg) // 9:130:2 (12tg)
  • Tg, TD inside the 10: Kupp (9, 6) // Higbee (5, 1) // Woods (3, 1) // Van (1, 0)
  • Woods only has two games of more than 6 targets
  • Woods has 15 DK pts or fewer in 6 of 7 games, with the one outlier being a 30 pt score in the only game he’s out-produced Kupp this season
  • HOU has allowed the 5th highest success rate & 3rd highest yds/att to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80) 
  • HOU has allowed the 7th highest rate of explosive passes to WRs
  • HOU has allowed 18 deep completions on 29 deep WR targets
  • Deep rec/tg: Kupp (13/24) // Woods (4/11) // Van (4/11) // DJax (3/9) // Higbee (1/2) 

Tyler Higbee:

  • TEs with 40+ yds vs HOU: O’Shag (48) // Bryant (49), Hooper (40) // Henry (75:1) // Ertz (66:1)
  • HOU has allowed six TE TDs
  • Higbee is playing 91% of snaps and running routes on 75% of Rams passes
  • Higbee has five games of 5+ tg: 6 // 1 // 5 // 6 // 2 // 5 // 8

Darrell Henderson:

  • HOU has allowed 7 RB rush TDs, & 4 more QB rush TDs
  • LAR rush att inside-20: Henderson (16) // Michel (9)
  • LAR rush att inside-10: Henderson (9) // Michel (2)
  • LAR rush att inside-5: Henderson (5) // Michel (1)
  • Backfields vs HOU are averaging 153.1 total yds; HOU allowed a league-high 190.9 yds/g in 2020 so that’s still a positive increase for the Texans
  • Twelve RBs in seven games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • Henderson’s rush att in the 4 Rams Wins he’s played in full: 16 // 17 // 21 // 15
  • RBs with 14+ rush att vs HOU: Singletary (14:79), Moss (14:61:1) // Harris (14:58:1) // Edmonds (15:81)
  • Henderson rush yds: 70:1 // 53:1 // 89 // 82:1 // 78:1 // 45
  • Henderson rec yds: 17 // 29 // 27 // 17 // 29:1 // 19
  • 6 of 32 RBs since 2014 averaging 14+ rush att as 14+ pt favorites have scored 25+ DK pts; average of 14.3% ownership across large tournaments

Davis Mills:

  • Rams have forced the 6th most TOs (12)
  • Mills has 8 TOs in 5.5 games
  • Mills has scored over 11 DK pts just once
  • Goff already has three games under 10 DK pts
  • 35 QBs vs LAR since Ramsey arrived are averaging just 15.8 DK pts, with the only QBs over just 20 DK pts being Dalton, Lamar, Kyler (x2), Allen, Jimmy, Rodgers, Brady
  • 8/35 QBs vs Ramsey’s Rams have topped 20 DK pts, and only 4/35 over just 24 DK pts (36.3, 36.2, 25.5, 31.7), while 21/35 have finished below 15 DK pts

Brandin Cooks:

  • Elite perimeter WRs vs LAR in 2020: Cooper (10:81) // Diggs (4:49:1) // McLaurin (3:26) // ARob (4:70) // Metcalf (2:28; 6:59; 5:96:2) // Evans (5:49:1) // Hop (8:52:1; 4:35)
  • Team’s top WRs vs LAR in 2021: ARob (6:35) // Pittman (8:123) // Evans (8:106) // Hopkins (4:67) // Metcalf (5:98:2) // Shepard (10:76) // Raymond (6:115)
  • In the 25 games since 2020, LAR have allowed 42 WRs to surpass 40 rec yds, but just 21 above 60 yds
  • However, 8 of the 21 over 60 yds have come in the last five games (Evans, Godwin, Johnson, Hopkins, Green, Metcalf, Shepard, Raymond)
  • Cooks in 4.5 games with Mills: 4:28:1 // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21
  • Only WRs over just 15 DK pts vs LAR since 2020: Deebo (27.3) // Metcalf (26.8, 26.6) // Pittman (23.3) // Adams (21.6) // Evans (21.6) // Raymond (20.6) // Lazard (19.6) // Godwin (19.6) // Hopkins (19.2) // Beasley (19) // Cooper (18.1) // Deebo (18) // Green (17.7) // Shepard (17.6)
  • That’s just three scores over 25 DK pts (none over 30): two were 2-TD Metcalf games, and in the other Deebo had just 2 of his 11 rec come 5+ yds past the LOS

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
19) at

Browns (

Over/Under 43.0


Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets in every healthy game but one (a two-target game in which the Big Ben attempted only 25 passes, his lowest number of the season).
  • We should expect Najee Harris to see a heavy workload, albeit in a difficult matchup on the ground. His pass game usage is likely to spike to offset efficiency concerns on the ground.
  • Ridiculously slow expected combined pace of play, particularly in the first half.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers continue their short area, pass-heavy approach this season after making that transition over the previous season with an aging Ben Roethlisberger. They hold the league’s fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate but have scaled back their pace of play all the way down to a 21st-ranked 31.86 situation-neutral pace of play. Furthermore, they rank dead last in the league in first-half pace of play, indicating an emphasis on slowing games down in an attempt to win games in the second half (fifth-ranked pace of play in the second half of games, largely driven by neutral-to-negative game scripts). The big news out of Pittsburgh is the absence of Juju Smith-Schuster for the remainder of the season, which boosted the pass game volume of running back Najee Harris and rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth in their first game with JuJu out of the lineup. The most surprising aspect of JuJu missing time was the emergence of Ray-Ray McCLoud III, who played 69% of the offensive snaps in their Week 6 overtime victory. Thinking it through logically, it makes sense that McCloud stepped into the vacated slot role left behind by Juju as the majority of his snaps have come from the slot this season (119 of 140 snaps from the slot).

The run game is dominated by rookie running back Najee Harris, who has played 80% or more of the offensive snaps in five of the Steelers’ six games thus far. Furthermore, if we take away his massive 19 target game in which the Steelers played from behind and played largely without Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster, Najee has averaged over six targets per game over the last three games played (plus that 19-target explosion four weeks ago). We should expect the likeliest scenario to land Najee in the 25-28 running back opportunity range, with five to seven of those looks being targets. The matchup yields the lowest net-adjusted line yards metric on the week at just 3.62 (Pittsburgh ranks 30th while Cleveland’s defense ranks sixth).

Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets in four of five healthy contests (a two-target outlier game in Week 5 against Denver, where he still went for 72 yards and a score), making his range of outcomes one of the highest on the week at the wide receiver position. Behind Johnson, targets are likeliest to flow through Najee Harris, Chase Claypool (assuming health), Pat Freiermuth, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Eric Ebron, likely in that order. Big Ben has attempted 40 or more pass attempts in four of the previous five games (and four of six total games on the season), with the only games where he failed to reach 40 pass attempts coming in comfortable wins over the Bills in Week 1 and the Broncos in Week 5. The Browns rank fourth in the league in completion rate allowed at just 61.14%, 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt at just 6.6, but 17th in yards allowed per completion at 10.8. This theoretically boosts the raw expectation of wide receiver Chase Claypool, who acts as the primary intermediate to downfield receiver on this offense.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns appear to be getting healthier, as all of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Jr., and Nick Chubb appear likely to play this week. Donovan Peoples-Jones currently appears as the likeliest to miss this week, which should open up additional snaps and usage for Rashard Higgins on the perimeter opposite OBJ. That said, Cleveland utilizes multiple tight ends on the field at the third-highest rate in the league (behind only a massive 55% combined 12- and 13-personnel rate from the Dolphins and the misleading 56% combined 12-, 13-, and 22-personnel rates from the Falcons), so we shouldn’t expect more than 60-65% snap rate he has seen over the previous two weeks. The Browns rank 30th in the NFL in situation-neutral pace of play, 30th in second half pace of play, and 31st in situation-neutral pass rate. One final note with respect to injury news revolves around Baker Mayfield, who remained noncommittal regarding his expected status for Week 8. He returned to practice on Thursday but was seen making only short-area throws in positional drills. I’d tentatively expect him to return to action here with the possibility his injured shoulder prevents him from taking shots downfield.

The ground game is a bit harder to figure out with Nick Chubb returning from a pretty solid absence. It takes a bit of “reading between the lines,” but I wouldn’t expect Chubb to return to more than his usual 50-55% snap rate workload. Instead of working with Kareem Hunt, it’s likely D’Ernest Johnson steps into the complementary role, likely seeing 45-50% of the available snaps. The likeliest outcome puts Chubb’s usage in the 18-22 running back opportunity range, while Johnson is likely to fall in a very Kareem Huntian 15-17 opportunity range. With neither of these two back typically involved much in the passing game, we should theoretically see a small uptick to the expected volume of the primary and secondary pass-catchers on this offense, but trying to figure out who would benefit the most is a fool’s errand. The matchup on the ground yields a “low for the Browns” 4.635 net-adjusted line yards metric. Either way, the focus of this Browns team should remain on the ground game, particularly with Nick Chubb returning and D’Ernest Johnson looking like a capable NFL-level back last week.

If we can confidently project Baker Mayfield to land in the 28-33 pass attempt range, and since we can confidently assume both healthy running backs won’t be utilized heavily in the passing game (two targets for Johnson in his only game as the starter; Chubb has seen two or fewer targets in every game this season), that leaves a small path to an increase in volume for OBJ and Jarvis against an opponent that filters the majority of the pass game work against them to the wide receiver position. These are still low expected volume players (neither has seen double-digit looks this year), but this might be their best shot at cracking the double-digit target mark this season. The reality of the situation for the Browns is we still can’t confidently narrow the expected target share enough for us to feel confident in any one pass-catcher. The Steelers filter the majority of the pass game work against through the wide receiver position (fourth-fewest running back targets allowed and fourth-fewest tight end target rate allowed thus far), and OBJ and Jarvis should be on the field the most, but that’s about where the positives end.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

When we combine the tendencies from each of these teams, we’re left with a scenario where the first half is likely to be played at a snail’s pace. Each team is likely to slow things down and play to win the game in the second half. That dents the overall appeal of most play-makers from each side, with the two exceptions being the expected high usages of Diontae Johnsons and Najee Harris, which we’ll get into further in the coming section. Combined, these two teams run about 128 offensive plays per game this season, with the Browns demonstrating a wide range of outcomes up to this point (71 or more in four of seven weeks and 61 or less in the other three games) and the Steelers checking in with 65 or fewer plays in four of six contests. Since we don’t expect the Browns to break off chunk gains and we don’t expect the Steelers to attack downfield with great frequency, each team should be relegated to having to march the field in order to put up points. The Browns rank 16th in drive success rate allowed while the Steelers rank eighth, giving further credence to the idea that this game will play sloppy in the first half.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • The 42.5 Vegas total (as of Wednesday evening) is the second lowest on the week
  • PIT has yet to score 28+ pts this season
  • The average actual total in PIT games has been 41.5
  • Per numberFire, PIT ranks 29th in adjusted seconds per play (31.4)
  • CLE ranks 28th (31.3)

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Ben ranks 28th in PFF passing grade
  • He ranks 31st in YPA, 30th in ADoT, and 26th in QBR
  • Since Antonio Brown’s departure following the 2018 season, Ben has only faced CLE twice
  • Both times happened last season, once in October and then in the Wild Card Round
  • He scored 10.98 & 37.04 DK pts, respectively
  • DK log this season: 12.02 // 14.8 // 18.22 // 11.28 // 17.02 // 11.86
  • That’s zero games with 19+ DK pts, despite supporting seven 20+ performances from his RBs & WRs
  • CLE ranks 26th against QBs (22.9)

PIT Passing Attack

  • PIT has used 11 personnel at a 76% rate (league average is 59%) and 12 personnel at a 16% rate
  • Snap share: Diontae Johnson 69.8% // JuJu Smith Schuster 68.9% // Chase Claypool 64.7% // Pat Freiermuth 50.6% // Eric Ebron 46.6% // James Washington 37.8% // Ray-Ray McCloud 35.5%
  • Target share: Diontae 21.3% // Claypool 17.9% // JuJu 11.9% // Freiermuth 8.5% // Washington 6% // Ebron 5.5% // McCloud 3.8%
  • With JuJu hurt in Week 5 and lost for the season, notable snap changes: McCloud went from 34 to 52 snaps, Ebron from 25 to 34, Freiermuth from 32 to 45, and Claypool (returning from injury himself) from 36 to 63
  • Only Freiermuth had a notable target change, from 2 to 7
  • Diontae ranks ninth in air yard market share and sixth in WOPR, per Koalaty Stats
  • Diontae’s DK log: 14.6 // 22.5 // 24.2 // 15.2 // 18.6
  • Claypool ranks 13th in air yard market share and 20th in WOPR
  • Claypool’s DK log: 9.2 // 10 // 9.7 // 18.6 // 27 // 3.7
  • Washington’s best DK output came against the Browns in December 2019 (24.1 pts), but in 31 games the past three seasons, he’s averaged just 8.18 DK pts
  • McCloud has never hit double digits
  • In the Wild Card round last season, Ben’s production primarily came through JuJu (37.7 pts), Diontae (25.7), and Claypool (22.9)
  • JuJu dominated the slot usage
  • In Week 6 this year, McCloud saw the most work from the slot (34 snaps to Claypool’s 11)
  • CLE ranks 20th against WRs (40.3)
  • This season, only Freiermuth has cracked double-digit DK pts among the TEs (11.2 vs. CIN and 12.8 vs. SEA)
  • CLE ranks eighth against TEs (9.2)

Najee Harris

  • Najee leads all RBs in the league with an 86.4% snap share
  • He’s second in target share with 19.6% and fifth in touches per game with 22.7
  • Per Koalaty Stats, his goal line share ranks fifth, WOPR ranks second among RBs, and RBOPR ranks first
  • He’s tied for third in DK ppg (21.2) with Alvin Kamara
  • DK log: 5.9 // 19.1 // 31.2 // 21.1 // 25.2 // 24.7
  • CLE ranks fourth against RBs (19.1)
  • The lone notable performance came via Austin Ekeler, who scored 33.9 DK pts with a stat line of 17 attempts for 66 yds and 2 TDs & catching all five targets for 53 yds and 1 TD

Case Keenum

  • In his first start this year, Keenum ranked 20th in PFF passing grade
  • Stat line: 21/33 – 199 – 1
  • In 56 career games, he averages 14.54 DK ppg
  • He’s had only nine games with 20+ DK pts
  • PIT ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.8)

CLE Passing Attack

  • CLE’s personnel usage from Weeks 1-6: 11 personnel 44% // 12 personnel 20% // 21 personnel 11% // 13 personnel 21% (most in the league) // 22 personnel 2%
  • In Week 7 with Keenum under center: 11 personnel 48% // 12 personnel 12% // 21 personnel 6% // 13 personnel 20% // 22 personnel 12%
  • CLE ranks 23rd in numberFire’s adjusted pass rate
  • Notable snap changes from Week 6 to Week 7: David Njoku 26 to 42 & Harrison Bryant 17 to 30
  • Target counts in Week 7: Jarvis Landry 8 // Odell Beckham 6 // Austin Hooper 3 // Anthony Schwartz 3 // David Njoku 2 // Harrison Bryant 2 // Rashard Higgins 2
  • Landry’s DK log against PIT as a Brown: 20.6 // 11.9 // 14.3 // 13.6 // 7 // 16.4 // 20.2
  • OBJ’s DK log this season: 13.7 // 5.1 // 4 // 12.9 // 4.3
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones is the only other WR to put up 12+ DK pts this season, but he hurt his groin in the Week 7 pre-game and hasn’t practiced since
  • PIT ranks 29th against WRs (44.4)
  • Njoku is the only TE to score double-digit DK pts
  • He had 10.6 @ KC and 30.9 @ LAC
  • PIT ranks 11th against TEs (9.8)


  • With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt absent in Week 7, D’Ernest Johnson stepped into the lead role
  • He ran 22 times for 146 yds and 1 TD & caught both of his targets for 22 yds
  • Chubb is expected back in Week 8
  • Chubb’s DK log this season: 23.1 // 16.8 // 8.4 // 14.5 // 27
  • Chubb against PIT in his career: 2.1 // 9.5 // 9.2 // 8.9 // 19.8 // 24.5 (Wild Card last season)
  • His DK salary has fallen $1,000 from a season high of $7,800 in Week 2
  • PIT ranks fifth against RBs in DK ppg allowed to RBs (19.8)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
25.5) at

Lions (

Over/Under 48.0


Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>
  • Both teams are struggling this season, with the Lions actually appearing to be playing better and having less dysfunction than the Eagles at the moment in spite of their 0-7 record.
  • Both teams are throwing at an above-average rate, despite questionable quarterback play.
  • Despite their offensive struggles, the Eagles have scored over 20 points in six of seven games this season.
  • The Lions have not scored 20+ points since their season opener against the 49ers, a game in which they scored 23 second-half points.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles started out on fire against the Raiders in Week 7 as they marched down the field for a touchdown on an 8 play, 67 yard drive. As explored heading into last week, the Eagles had a need to get their ground game going and were able to do just that with Miles Sanders racking up five carries for 25 yards on that opening drive. Unfortunately, Sanders was injured early on the following drive and missed the rest of the game. From that point forward, the Eagles only ran the ball with their running backs 12 times while Hurts attempted 28 passes. Granted, the Eagles trailed for most of the game but a 70% pass rate is certainly not the recipe for success right now for this team.

Miles Sanders is almost certain to miss this game, leaving the backfield to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. The Eagles had a couple of poor drives after Sanders went out last week and the Raiders scored on both sides of the halftime break — in the blink of an eye, the Eagles were down 24-7 and forced to be very aggressive trying to come back. It will be interesting to see how the Eagles approach this game with a full week to prepare for Sanders’ absence and facing a weak opponent. Both Scott and Gainwell profile more as “scat backs” than they do as between the tackles grinders but should be able to work in tandem to attack Detroit’s bottom-tier run defense behind PFF’s #4 graded run-blocking offensive line. The Eagles will likely take some downfield shots to their speedy wide receivers as well, who have consistently been targeted deep but have not connected recently. A date with Detroit’s 27th DVOA pass defense could be just what the doctor ordered to unlock that downfield explosiveness.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit knows who they are — a talent deficient team that needs many things to break their way to have a chance — and has done a great job keeping games competitive despite their inadequacies. Despite their reputation as a doormat, the Lions have been pesky all season. Only the Bengals and Packers, two teams who lead their divisions, have beaten the Lions by more than 10 points. Their method of “how they try to win” is turning the game into a slugfest and bringing their opponents down to their level. Against the Eagles, Detroit has a strong chance of being able to do just that.

Philadelphia’s run defense is notably poor — ranking 29th in both run defense DVOA and PFF’s run-defense grades. This should allow the Lions to sustain drives and move the ball while putting up some points early, even if they are unable to get in the end zone. The ability of the Lions to put up early points also makes it likely that they will be able to keep their game plan intact deep into the game and make this a 4th quarter game where it will be a game of “chicken” between Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff of which QB makes a big mistake first. The Lions offense flows primarily through D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Jamaal Williams with some calculated short to intermediate passing to their low-talent receiving corps. We should expect a similar approach and distribution of touches here as the Lions will hope to score 2-3 touchdowns and grind out a home win.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game is an interesting matchup of one team which has superior talent but is struggling to find an identity against a team that is lacking in personnel but has been getting the most out of what they have to work with. As noted in the Game Overview section, the Eagles have scored 20+ points in all but one game this year. However, that stat is slightly misleading as they have reached that 20 point threshold with some meaningless late-game TDs on multiple occasions. On the other side, Detroit has only scored 20+ points one time this season and Philadelphia’s defense has been very good against below-average competition this year. 

Both teams are unlikely to have explosive games through the air, as Philadelphia’s passing game has been a complete mess while the Eagles pass defense presents a tough matchup for Detroit. Both teams have a greater chance for success on the ground as the Eagles rank 8th in rushing offense DVOA and 29th in rushing defense DVOA. What this sets up is a game where both teams are unlikely to be efficient if they take a pass-heavy approach while the game clock will move quickly, limit possessions, and slow the game down if these teams take the “path of least resistance” by running at a high rate. In any scenario, the lack of explosiveness on the Lions side and lack of efficiency for the Eagles passing game limits the chances of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Philly’s implied total of 25.25 ranks eighth on the main slate
  • Game totals for PHI have finished at 50+ pts in 4 of 7 games
  • PHI ranks second in numberFire’s adjusted pass rate
  • DET ranks 30th in adjusted pass rate
  • DET is the last remaining winless team
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in DET games
  • DET hasn’t scored 20 pts since Week 1

Jalen Hurts

  • Hurts ranks 20th in PFF passing grade
  • He’s 22nd in YPA, 16th in passing yards, and 15th in ADoT
  • His 26 DK ppg rank fourth
  • He’s the only QB to score 20+ pts in each game
  • DK log: 28.76 // 21.8 // 25.54 // 31.18 // 23.92 // 26 // 24.54
  • DET ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs (21.5)

PHI Passing Attack

  • PHI ranks third in 11 personnel usage (71%)
  • Snap share: DeVonta Smith 91.1% // Jalen Reagor 75.7% // Quez Watkins 64.4% // Dallas Goedert 64.1%
  • Target share: DeVonta 21.8% // Reagor 12.3% // Watkins 10.7% // Goedert 9.9%
  • DeVonta ranks 11th in air yards, 24th in air yard market share, and 24th in WOPR
  • DK log: 19.1 // 3.6 // 5.8 // 22.2 // 15.7 // 5.1 // 11.1
  • DeVonta and Watkins both rank in the Top 20 in ADoT
  • DET has allowed the second most 20+ yd passes and 40+ yd passes
  • Reagor has only scored 15+ DK pts once in his career (16.9 @ ATL in Week 1)
  • Watkins has only scored 15+ DK pts once in his career (16.7 vs. SF in Week 2)
  • DET ranks 21st against WRs (40.4)
  • Goedert had his highest snap count after Zach Ertz was traded (64)
  • His targets rose by two, hitting five targets for the third time this season
  • He caught three of five for 70 yds
  • DK log: 14.2 // 4.4 // 8.6 // 16.6 // 4.8 // 12
  • DET ranks 13th against TEs (10.4)


  • With Miles Sanders going down, Kenneth Gainwell led Boston Scott in snaps 35-23, targets 8-7, and touches 9-8
  • Gainwell has 3 TDs on the season to Scott’s 1 (Sanders had 0), and 9 red zone touches to Scott’s 3
  • Gainwell’s DK log: 12.3 // 7.2 // 6.4 // 20.9 // 3.4 // 1.1 // 15.1
  • DET ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (30.5)

Jared Goff

  • Goff ranks 26th in PFF passing grade
  • His 6.5 YPA ranks 29th
  • Goff has the lowest ADoT in the league among qualifying QBs (6.6)
  • DK log: 32.92 // 20.44 // 9.08 // 18.76 // 8.12 // 9.18 // 13.02
  • PHI ranks 11th against QBs (18.9)

DET Passing Attack

  • DET uses 11 personnel at a 69% rate, 12 personnel at 14%, and 21 personnel at 10%
  • Snap share: TJ Hockenson 83.6% // Kalif Raymond 75.2% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 64.2% // Geronimo Allison 34.1%
  • Target share: Hockenson 18.8% // Raymond 14.1% // Amon 12% (0 targets in Week 7)
  • Among currently active WRs, only Raymond has exceeded 15 DK pts this season
  • He’s done it twice, 19.6 @ CHI & 20.6 @ LAR
  • PHI ranks fifth against WRs (32.6)
  • Hockenson ranks sixth in air yards, fifth in target share, sixth in air yard market share, and sixth in WOPR among all TEs
  • His 12.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • DK log: 25.7 // 20.6 // 3 // 8.2 // 4.2 // 15.4 // 10.8
  • PHI ranks 22nd against TEs (16.1)


  • Snap share: D’Andre Swift 69.8% // Jamaal Williams 34.6%
  • Swift’s target counts: 11 // 5 // 7 // 6 // 6 // 7 // 10
  • Jamaal’s target counts: 9 // 3 // 2 // 0 // 2 // 2 // 0
  • Swift’s touch counts: 19 // 12 // 21 // 12 // 17 // 18 // 21
  • Jamaal’s touch counts: 17 // 10 // 14 // 14 // 15 // 5 // 12
  • Swift leads Jamaal 22-15 in red zone touches
  • Jamaal’s DK log: 25 // 6.7 // 14.7 // 6.6 // 8.5 // 1.9 // 5.7
  • Swift ranks first in total targets among RBs with 52
  • Per Koalaty Stats, his RBOPR ranks fourth
  • Swift’s DK log: 24.4 // 11.8 // 23.7 // 8.9 // 22.4 // 17.7 // 28.4
  • PHI ranks 30th against RBs (31.4)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
22.25) at

Bears (

Over/Under 40.0


Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is the worst game environment on the slate for DFS
  • Justin Fields doesn’t look ready for the NFL
  • Eli Mitchell is a TD/Yardage back that is priced below his chance at 100 yards and a TD
  • Herbert was a bell cow last week and is mispriced for his role

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers come into this game a disappointing 2-4, off the back of four straight losses to the Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals/Colts. While none of those opponents are pushovers, a team that is going to contend can’t go 0-4 in those games. Kyle Shanahan runs “his offense” more than he adapts to relentlessly attack an opponent’s weakness. That is because Shanny’s teams have always run “his offense” well, and a well-run Shanahan offense is hard to stop. This year’s edition of the Shanahan offense has left a lot to be desired. The 49ers want to run the ball, and their opponent sets up well to be run against. The Bears have been solid against the pass (7th in DVOA) but more susceptible on the ground (17th in DVOA), creating a mini run funnel. That setup is music to Shanahan’s ears as he will gladly keep his QB under 30 attempts if game flow allows. Expect the 49ers to come out at their usual slow pace (23rd situational natural) and try to grind the Bears down on the ground, while mixing in play-action to keep them off balance.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Bears playoff hopes are starting to fade as they are coming off two straight losses, including a 38-3 pasting at the hands of the loaded Bucs. Matt Nagy did his best to let Justin Fields attack the relative weakness of the Bucs defense and was rewarded with 184 yards and three picks. Fields doesn’t look ready for the NFL and it’s going to be difficult for this coaching staff to compete unless their QB makes large improvements. The Bears eventually “gave up” and preferred to say balanced, despite the vast gap on the scoreboard.

The Bears have played slow (26th in Situational neutral pace) to hide their deficiencies at QB. Matt Nagy is in a tough spot. He must know that Fields can’t run his offense, but he doesn’t seem capable of adjusting his offense to work for Fields. The 49ers defense is ranked about the same against the run (10th in DVOA) as they are against the pass (13th in DVOA) so the matchup shouldn’t tilt the Bears away from trying to hide Fields. Expect another game in which Nagy hopes to win by running the ball and playing defense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny 39.5 total, the lowest on the main slate. This is expected to be a battle between two slow-placed, running teams, that are going up against above-average defenses. Neither team is expected to push the pace, or force aggression from the other. The expected result is likely a slow grind-it-out affair in which it is very possible neither QB attempts more than 30 passes. There aren’t many paths that lead to this game opening up since Chicago desperately wants to hide their QB, and SF will be happy to win on defense, and on the ground.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • SF is favored by 3.5 with a total of 39.5 (opened 41.0)
  • Last three matchups between these two have been low scoring: 2018-CHI:14 SF:9 // 2017-SF:15 CHI:14 // 2016-SF:6 CHI:26
  • CHI is third to last in pts/g (14.4)
  • They’ve yet to break 24 pts in a game: TB-3 // GB-14 // DET-24 // CLE-6 // CIN-20 // LAR-14 
  • Their season high of 24 came against DET who gives up the 8th most pts/g
  • SF ranks 19th in pts/g (22.5)
  • They’ve failed to break 20 pts in three of six games: 18 // 10 // 21 // 28 // 17 // 41
  • CHI opponent pts: TB-38 // GB-24 // LV-9 // DET 14 // CLE-26 // CIN-17 // LAR-34
  • SF D has been up and down in terms of pts/g allowed: IND-30 // @ ARZ-10 // vs SEA-28 // vs GB-30 // @ PHI-11 // @ DET-33

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • In four full games, Garoppolo has yet to break 20 DK pts or throw three TDs
  • He has only one, two TD game (Week 3 vs GB, 16.7 DK pts) and no three TD games
  • It’s been eight games since Jimmy scored 20+ DK pts & 16 since a 30+ game
  • Garopollo’s price ($5.6k) has stayed in the $5.4k-$5.7k range all season
  • CHI D gives up the 12th least DK pts to QBs (19.1) 


  • Jamycal Hasty returned from IR last week seeing six tgts but just three carries
  • Elijah Mitchell rush atts: 19 // 17 // 9 // 18
  • Mitchell has a 53% rush share in four games played
  • Removing the game Trey Lance took 16 carries, the rush share jumps to 60%
  • No other RB has more than five carries in a game when Mitchell is active
  • His price only jumped $300 this week to $5.4k despite two 100 yd+ games out of four games played
  • Other RBs in this range: Myles Gaskin-$5.6k // Khalil Herbert-$5.4k // D’Ernest Johnson-$5.4k // Damien Williams-$5.3k // Alex Collins-$5.3k
  • Trey Sermon in two starts: 29:120:1TD // 3 tgts
  • In four non-starts: 2:15
  • Sermon didn’t play a snap last week with both Hasty and MItchell active
  • RB snaps last week (of 56): Mitchell-37 // Hasty 19
  • SF is 12th in rush yds/g (120.2)
  • CHI allows the 10th most yds/g (122.1) but the 11th least DK pts to RBs (22.2)


  • Deebo Samuel NFL Ranks: Second in yds/g (108.0) // Second in yac/g (53.1) // Third in WR DK pts/g (23.7)
  • Deebo SF Shares: Target-34% // Rec yds-44%
  • Deebo came into last week with just four RZ tgts but saw three & now leads the team w/ seven
  • No other WR saw a RZ tgt last week
  • Other WR RZ tgts: Mohamed Sanu-5 // Brandon Aiyuk-4
  • Deebo has ceiling games in two of five (35.9 & 38.7 DK pts) & scored 25.0 last week 
  • Deebo tgts w/ Garoppolo: 11 // 13 // 10 // 8 // 12
  • Aiyuk routes run Weeks 1-3: DNP // 40% // 59%
  • Since: 71% // 90% // 68% // 76% 
  • Tgts: Deebo-63 // Sanu-17 // Aiyuk-16 // Sherfield-10
  • Aiyuk averaged 8.0 tgts/g last season but only 3.2 this season & has yet to see over six tgts in any game so far
  • CHI allows the 6th most DK pts to WRs (42.4)

49ers TEs:

  • Week 5 & 6 routes run (of 70) w/ Kittle still on IR: Ross Dwelley-56 // Charlie Woerner-19
  • Tgts: Dwelley-4 // Woerner-3

Justin Fields:

  • CHI throws for the least pass yds/g in the league (124.4)
  • SF allows the fifth least pass yds/g (205.0)
  • Fields’ highest attempts came last week with only 22 against TB who allows 40.4/g (2nd most)
  • He’s only thrown for 200+ yds once which came against DET who allows the 22nd most (263 yds/g)
  • SF allows the fifth least pass yds/g (205.0)
  • Fields hasn’t been rushing much either averaging just 4.6 atts in five games as a starter
  • TD:INT ratio: 2:6
  • SF allows the tenth most DK pts to QBs (21.9/g)
  • Fields is $5k (3.5x=17.5 DK pts)
  • In five starts, Fields has yet to top 14.3 DK pts


  • David Montgomery could be activated from IR this week but it hasn’t happened yet and will likely be out 1-2 more weeks
  • Snap share w/o Montgomery: Khalil Herbert-73% // Damien Williams-22%
  • Herbert w/o Montgomery: 18:100, 5:33:5 tgts // 19:97:1 TD, 2:15:3 tgts // 18:75, 0 tgts
  • DK pts: 21.3 // 19.2 // 7.5
  • Price: $5.2k // $4.6k // $4.0k // This week: $5.4k
  • CHI has the third highest rush play % at 49.63 (only NO & CLE are higher)
  • SF D allows 119 rush yds/g (13th most), 27.7 atts/g (also13th most), & 4.3 yds/att (14th most)


  • With how run heavy CHI is, no WR has over an eight tgt game since Robinson’s Week 1 11 tgt game
  • SF D allows the sixth least pass atts/g (32.3) & fifth least rec yds (205.0)
  • Mooney has the only 100+ yd game
  • Mooney’s price started at $4.0k but has since risen steadily to this week’s season high of $4.8k
  • His ceiling game of 21.5 pts came at his cheapest price of $3.9k vs DET
  • To pay off 3.5x: 5 rec:60 yds: 1 TD
  • Mooney tgts: 5 // 8 // 5 // 7 // 4 // 8 // 7
  • Robinson’s tgts: 4 // 7 // 5 // 3 // 6 // 4 // 11
  • Robinson has just one game above 10 DK pts & that was only 10.4 pts
  • In his Week 1 11 tgt game, had just 35 yds on 6 rec
  • His season high rec yards is just 63 & he only has one TD on the season
  • SF D allows a middle of the pack, 37.3 DK pts/g to WRs


  • Cole Kmet is third on the team in tgts with 30
  • Tgts by game: 6 // 5 // 4 // 3 // 4 // 1 // 7
  • He has zero TDs resulting in zero games above 10 DK pts
  • He started the season at $3.8k and has fell all the way to $2.7k four weeks ago
  • This week he’s $3.1k facing SF who allows the seventh least DK pts to TEs ($8.7k)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
22) at

Falcons (

Over/Under 46.5


Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • At what point do we just consider the Panthers a very NFL average team on both sides of the ball? Because I’m just about there
  • It appears as if the only player we should regard as having any semblance of weekly floor for Carolina is DJ Moore.
  • The field is likely to play this game poorly (we’ll discuss this more below)
  • One of DJ Moore or Chuba Hubbard, and one of Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley, or Cordarrelle Patterson are likely to pop for a nice game here. The problem is that it is maddening trying to figure out where it will come from

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

As soon as we think we figure out the Panthers, they show us head-scratching usage, wild play-calling, and inconsistent quarterback play. Here’s what we know: Chuba Hubbard is likely capped at around 65% of the offensive snaps (when we then pair that with the realization that the Panthers defense is more of a middling defense rather than a top-end unit, we’re left with a likeliest range of opportunities of 18-22 weekly); DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are the only near-every-down players on the offense; Robby and Sam Darnold have struggled to hook up all year; Ian Thomas and rookie tight end Tommy Tremble eat into each other’s workload, targets, and snap rates; Brandon Zylstra is on IR; and rookie wide receiver Terrace Marshall, Jr. has yet to practice with his concussion. The Panthers play at a middling pace of play, hold a middling pass rate on the season, and utilize 11-personnel at an above-average rate. With all of that considered, paired with their 22nd ranked 20.9 points scored per game, it leads me to the realization and conclusion that maybe this offense can only support one fantasy relevant asset on a weekly basis. That asset is typically DJ Moore. 

The ground game, the one that used to be almost entirely Christian McCaffrey’s, is now closer to a loose timeshare than it is a workhorse situation. Chuba Hubbard has seen 47%, 65%, 65%, and 53% snap rates in the four games without CMC. Newcomer Royce Freeman has emerged as the de facto change of pace back, typically playing 20 to 35% of the offensive snaps. A standard range of outcomes with respect to expected usage puts Hubbard in the 18 to 22 opportunity range. The matchup this week yields a below-average 4.14 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Atlanta defense allowing 26.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Until we see the snap share increase for Hubbard, we are resigned to viewing him as your run-of-the-mill lead back in today’s changing NFL scene.

As alluded to above, we can really only count on DJ Moore to see both volume and production on a weekly basis in this offense. Even with a standard range of pass attempts of 35-39, quarterback Sam Darnold appears incapable of running a functional offense. He has more interceptions on the season than he does passing scores, has fumbled the football five times (only two were lost), and although he has hit the passing bonus three times, the most passing yards he has on the season is 305. That said, if ever there were a game where he could raise his per game passing average, this would be it. The Falcons allow a lofty 250.6 passing yards per game and over 27 points per game, with the elaborate defensive scheme brought in by Dean Pees yet to translate to the scoreboard. DJ Moore has seen double-digit looks in five of seven games and leads the team in team target market share (29.1%), share of team air yards (38.6%), and average yards after the catch (5.2). Take a minute and go check out Robby Anderson’s RotoWire page. Or, maybe don’t, if you don’t want to be depressed. His 84.4 average air yards per game ranks in the top 10% in the league, but his 36.7% catch rate is the lowest in the league (of qualified wide receivers); his YAC stands at an abysmal 3.4 yards per reception, and his 12.2% drop rate ranks towards the bottom of the league. As the only other near every-down player on the team, the underlying metrics can only be described as depressing. 

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

This Atlanta team is finally figuring out how to best utilize the offensive personnel on hand, as Cordarrelle Patterson out-snapped (and continued to out-produce) backfield-mate Mike Davis in Week 7. Seeing a team place their best play-makers on the field over more established vets, regardless of their reasoning, is a welcomed sight. Rookie phenom Kyle Pitts has been used all over the formation, playing the second-highest rate of snaps lined up in the slot or out wide of any tight end in the league (second to only Mike Gesicki, who is also a “tight end” by label but a wide receiver by trade). With Russel Gage now healthy again, the primary play-makers that the Falcons can field are the top play-makers on the roster. Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Russel Gage all played over 63% of the offensive snaps in Week 7, a situation that should continue moving forward. The driving forces behind the weekly approach from this offense revolve around Matt Ryan’s aging arm and a defense that has allowed the third-most points per game in the league (29.3). With that understanding, we can begin to see why Atlanta has attempted the third-most passes per game (41.2) while putting up only the 10th most pass yards per game and scoring only 22.5 points per game (19th in the league). Overall, the Falcons have the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate and play at the league’s 11th fastest situation-neutral pace of play.

The breakdown in running back usage took a sharp turn in Patterson’s favor over the last two weeks, as he saw 23 and 19 “running back” opportunities to 18 and four for Mike Davis. Head coach Arthur Smith explained the decreasing usage as game flow dependent, but the truth of the matter is the Falcons are unlikely to see many positive game scripts for the rest of the season. Their three wins have come with a combined 10-point victory margin, while their three losses have come with a 53-point combined margin of loss. Davis is unlikely to see only four opportunities again all season, but we have to think the tides are shifting a bit when we consider Patterson has been the more efficient player all year. The matchup on the ground yields a paltry 3.99 net-adjusted line yards metric against the team allowing the fewest fantasy points against per game to the running back position.

Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in snaps played, aDOT, catch rate, and drop rate, while ranking second in team target market share and team air yards share. This kid is for real. He has still yet to out-target Calvin Ridley, but his efficiency leaves Ridley’s in the dust. Speaking of Ridley, who has seen eight or more targets in every game played, double-digit looks in all but one game, and double-digit fantasy points in every game played, we have yet to see the true ceiling this season out of him. Ridley and Pitts should be considered the 1A and 1B, with Patterson the 2 on this offense, who has seen five or more targets in five consecutive games. Behind those three, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst should be considered tertiary options on most weeks, with Gage the likeliest to provide fantasy utility. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game is an interesting study as the Panthers tilt run-funnel on defense and the Falcons clearly tilt pass-heavy on offense, while the Falcons can be beaten any which way on defense but the Panthers are a highly inefficient offense (28th-ranked drive success rate). This provides a game environment with a wide range of potential outcomes, with either team equally likely to be the driving force behind the game environment as a whole. The two game flows with basically an equally as likely chance of happening are a shootout and a slugfest, with either team dominating this game highly unlikely. That leads to a situation where the most optimal ways of playing the game are to either stack it up or avoid it completely; there really is not much room for the in-between. That said, I can see this game gaining interest as far as one-offs go, giving us a solid leverage opportunity this week. 



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • ATL has won 3 of last 4 (and probably should’ve won four straight)
  • CAR has dropped four straight after a 3-0 start
  • ATL has scored 27+ pts in three straight
  • CAR has recently allowed 36, 21, 34, 25 points

Matt Ryan:

  • Since his ugly 164:0 start in W1, Ryan has averaged 300.8 yds, 2.4 TDs, 0.8 INT in the last five games
  • He has thrown at least 2 TDs in all five of those games
  • Only BUF has allowed fewer QB pass yds than CAR, however CAR has allowed 14 QB TDs to 4 INT
  • CAR may add stud CB Stephon Gilmore at some point soon
  • Ryan struggled vs CAR in 2020: 226:0:1 // 281:0:1, rush TD


  • Targets: Ridley (8, 10, 11, 13, –, 10) // Gage (2, 7, –, –, –, 6) // Zach (4, 6, 3, 4, 1)
  • Ridley’s best yardage game this year is just 7 rec for 80 yds vs WAS
  • Every WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR has needed 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen)
  • WRs with 7+ tg vs CAR in 2021: Davis (97:2), Berrios (51) // Cooks (112) // Devonta (77) // Thielen (126:1), Osborn (78:1), Jefferson (80)
  • CAR has allowed the 6th fewest completed air yds
  • Both of Ridley’s TDs have come in the games Gage has played

Kyle Pitts:

  • Kyle Pitts = ATL’s new WR1? → 225 snaps slot/wide vs 84 inline
  • Pitts targets: 8 // 6 // 3 // 9 // 10 // 8
  • Pitts yds: 31 // 73 // 35 // 50 // 119 // 163
  • Notable TEs vs CAR: Schultz (6:58:1) // Goedert (2:28) // Conklin (3:71) // Engram (6:44)


  • Rush att first four games: Davis (15 // 9 // 12 // 13) // CPatt (7 // 7 // 7 // 6)
  • Rush att last two games: Davis (13 // 4) // CPatt (14 // 14)
  • CPatt has 5+ rec in 4/6 games (2 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 7 // 2)
  • His rec yds in the games with 5+ rec: 58:1 // 82 // 82:3 // 60
  • CPatt’s floor since W2 has been 14 DK pts (23.9, 16.2, 34.6, 18.4, 14.1)
  • CAR has allowed the fewest RB rec yds this season (just 86 total)
  • CAR’s last four opp rushing: DAL (30:210:1) // PHI (13:61) // MIN (33:180:1) // NYG (23:75:1)

Sam Darnold:

  • Darnold’s 4.4 yds/att, INT, and 10.7 QBR got him benched in a blowout loss to NYG
  • Darnold’s last three games: 177:1:3 (PHI) // 207:1:1 (MIN) // 111:0:1 (NYG)
  • Opp pass defenses by DVOA: PHI (19th) // MIN (3rd) // NYG (16th)
  • ATL ranks 30th in defensive pass DVOA
  • QB passing vs ATL: 264:3 // 275:5 // 266:0 // 290:3 // 192:0:1 // 291:4:2
  • QB rushing vs ATL: Hurts (7:62) // Jones (8:39) // Heinicke (5:43) // Tua (4:29)
  • Darnold rushing: TD // 11:2 // 35:2 // 10 // 48 // 0


  • Robby somehow only trails Moore in targets 38 to 42 over the last four weeks (9.5 tg/g)
  • Robby Anderson has produced just 13 rec for 101 yds on those 38 tg
  • Robby has the 5th most unrealized air yds in the NFL per PlayerProfiler
  • Robby vs ATL in 2020: 8:112 // 5:48
  • 12.7 is Robby’s season high in DK pts thanks to one 57 yd TD catch in W1
  • ATL has allowed 15 rec on 28 deep targets to WRs, with McLaurin & Evans the only ones with more than 1 rec (4 & 3)
  • DJ Moore has 70+ yds in all but one game: 80 // 79:1 // 126 // 113:2 // 42 // 73 // 73
  • Moore has 10+ tg in all but two games: 8 // 11 // 12 // 12 // 7 // 13 // 10
  • WRs with 8+ tg vs ATL: Smith (6:71:1) // Evans (5:75:2) // McLaurin (6:123:2) // Waddle (7:83)
  • Moore vs ATL in 2020: 4:93:1 // 2:55
  • Moore’s 2021 scores by salary multiplier (using W8 salary): 2.1 // 3 // 3.3 // 4.8 // 1.2 // 1.7 // 1.8
  • His best score there came in a 28-36 shootout loss to DAL
  • Final game totals of ATL games: 38 // 73 // 31 // 64 // 47 // 58
  • ATL vs CAR in 2020 finished with combined totals of just 39 & 42

Chuba Hubbard:

  • Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16 // 12
  • Hubbard’s targets as starter:  2 // 6 // 3 // 5
  • Hubbard had 70+ total yds in the first 2.5 games in relief of CMC : 79 // 71 // 134
  • Hubbard has just 65 & 56 total yds in the last two games
  • RBs with 10+ touches vs ATL: Sanders (113), Gainwell (43:1) // Fournette (76) // Saquon (94:1) // Gibson (75:1), McKissic (59:1) // Carter (58:1) // Gaskin (77:1)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
16.75) at

Bills (

Over/Under 48.5


Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>
  • This is the second matchup of the year for these two teams, although Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa left early in the first meeting — a 35-0 drubbing by the Bills.
  • Ingredients are here for an uptempo and high-volume affair as Miami throws at the highest rate in the NFL while the Bills play at one of the fastest paces in the league.
  • The Dolphins have significantly underperformed expectations this year and could be on the brink of major changes if this game gets out of hand.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Bills defense has been incredible this season. Outside of being unable to find an answer for the alien that is Derrick Henry, they have given up over 20 offensive points in only one game this year and that was in garbage time against Washington in Week 3. The Chiefs and the Titans are the only teams to have over 300 yards of total offense against the Bills this season. For reference, only four NFL teams average under 300 yards of offense per game and the Dolphins are the fifth least productive offense at 307.6 yards per game. To say that this will be tough sledding is an understatement.

Miami continues to throw at the highest situation-neutral rate in the league as they are unable to move the ball on the ground behind a porous offensive line. That line ranks 25th in the NFL in run blocking grade by PFF and dead last in pass blocking. Miami is unlikely to see their line’s play significantly improve against Buffalo’s #1 ranked defense by DVOA. Last week against Atlanta, the Falcons had defenders in the backfield on nearly every play whether it was a run or pass. For comparison’s sake, Atlanta is the 30th ranked DVOA defense. Miami will likely have little choice but to continue throwing the ball at a high rate and will need to get the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly if they want to keep him upright. The Dolphins inability to contain the Bills pass rush in Week 2 is what resulted in his injury that cost him several weeks and the possibility that he takes a similar pounding here is very real. The Dolphins do have some playmakers among their skill players, but this Bills defense was built specifically with the Chiefs in mind and their scheme and personnel are tailored to neuter pass-heavy offenses.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo’s offense is built around their passing game and with the loss of tight end Dawson Knox (who was in the midst of a breakout season), they will likely lean into even more four wide receiver personnel that should keep that pass rate high. The Bills passing game has actually been slightly down by their standards this season, but their best performances have been against bottom-tier pass defenses of the Chiefs, Titans, and Washington. The Dolphins present a similar matchup as they enter this game ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed. 

The Bills start a stretch of games here against incredibly weak opponents with their next three games being against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets — teams with a combined record of 3-16. The Bills will want to make quick work of these opponents and play clean games that allow them to give their stars rest late in blowouts, rest that will be very valuable in a 17 game season. Buffalo will try exploiting matchups all over the field by spreading the Dolphins out and peppering their elite separators at the wide receiver position against Miami’s man-heavy coverage. Miami’s run defense has actually been better than perceived as they have the 9th graded run defense by PFF and the Bills preference is to pass anyways. The loss of Dawson Knox will hurt the Bills running game efficiency while also promoting more spread sets. The Bills are an analytics-based team and have shown the willingness to abandon the run completely early in games if they feel they can throw the ball all over the yard effectively — something they have a good chance of doing here. The Bills have scored 40+ points in both of their home games since Week 1 after being shut down at home by the Steelers.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We should expect an aggressive mindset from the Bills early in this game as they come off their bye following a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Titans in Week 6. The Dolphins played in London in Week 6 and did not have a bye the following week, something that is very rare. While the Dolphins were able to fight to the end at home against a mediocre (at best) Falcons team, a road date with the juggernaut Bills presents a big challenge and potential meltdown as the physical toll of the travel and time change finally catches up to them. 

The likeliest game flow here has the Bills taking it to the Dolphins early through the air and the Dolphins also throwing at a high rate, though they will likely have very limited success. As the game moves on, the Bills are likely to move more toward the run game as their lead grows and they try to “survive and advance” with a comfortable, injury-free win. The matchup on paper of a fast-paced, high powered offense against a pass-happy bottom-feeder sets up for an extremely high play volume game while there is also the risk of this game disappointing if Buffalo is able to pump the brakes early and Miami is unable to sustain any offensive drives — a scenario that we saw play out the first time these teams played in Week 2 in Miami.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • MIA is 2-5 ATS
  • BUF is 5-2 ATS
  • BUF has scored 30+ pts for five straight weeks
  • MIA has yet to score 30 pts this season
  • Week 7’s 28 pt performance was the second time MIA scored 25+ on the season (28 pts Week 3 @ LV in an overtime game)
  • BUF’s 31.5 implied team total is highest on the week
  • The -13.5 spread is the second highest

Tua Tagovailoa

  • MIA has the third most passing attempts on the season but they rank 16th in Pass TDs
  • Tua ranks 16th in PFF passing grade
  • Tua’s DK log in three full games: 17.18 // 25.36 // 28.54
  • BUF ranks first in DK ppg allowed to QBs (13)
  • Opposing QBs DK log: Ben Roethlisberger 12.02 // Jacoby Brissett 6.56 // Taylor Heinicke 23.38 // Davis Mills -0.32 // Patrick Mahomes 21.98 // Ryan Tannehill 13.94

MIA Passing Attack

  • MIA leads the league in 12 personnel rate at 51% (league avg. 22%)
  • Fantasy relevant snap shares: Jaylen Waddle 81.1% // Mike Gesicki 67.4% // DeVante Parker 45.9% (absent the last three weeks) // Mack Hollins 37% // Will Fuller 31.1% (absent the last three weeks) // Preston Williams 20%
  • With Williams active in Week 7, the snap count for Hollins nearly halved (from 68 to 39)
  • Target share: Waddle 20.9% // Gesicki 18.1% // Parker 11.6% (healthy target counts of 7-9 in Weeks 1-4) // Preston 4.3% (healthy counts of 3, 5, & 4) // Fuller 2.9% (6 in one healthy game)
  • Waddle’s DK salary did not change from last week ($5,600)
  • Waddle’s DK log with Tua: 16.1 // 29 // 15.3
  • Among WRs with at least 30 targets, Parker ranks 10th in air yard market share & 18th in WOPR
  • Parker’s DK log: 12.1 // 9.2 // 8.2 // 17.7
  • The other MIA WRs have combined for just one double-digit DK output: Mack Hollins 10.1 vs. JAX in London
  • BUF allows the fewest DK ppg to WRs (27.4)
  • Among all TEs, Gesicki ranks fourth in targets, third in receptions, fourth in receiving yards, third in air yards, seventh in target share, third in air yard market share, and seventh in WOPR
  • Among TEs with at least six games played, he ranks seventh in DK ppg
  • Gesicki’s DK log: 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7 // 8.3 // 22.5 // 21.5
  • BUF ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to TEs (9.1)


  • Malcolm Brown has been placed on IR
  • In Week 7, Myles Gaskin out-snapped Salvon Ahmed, 46 to 22
  • Gaskin had four targets to Ahmed’s two
  • In total touches, Gaskin led 19 to 9
  • Gaskin’s healthy DK log: 12.6 // 8.6 // 10.4 // 31.9 // 3.4 // 17.7
  • In Week 17 @ BUF, Ahmed scored 13.8 and Gaskin scored 17.7 DK pts
  • Otherwise, all of Ahmed’s double-digit scores have come with Gaskin absent or limited
  • BUF ranks second against RBs (17.4)

Josh Allen

  • Josh Allen leads all QBs in DK ppg
  • Allen’s DK log: 18.2 // 17.66 // 40.22 // 21.02 // 39.5 // 32.72
  • In seven career games against MIA, Allen averages 29.39 DK pts
  • Allen is the second most expensive QB at $8,100
  • MIA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (22.9)
  • However, only one QB has scored 26+ against them
  • Tom Brady completed 30/41 passes for 411 yds and 5 TDs on the way to 40.74 pts

BUF Passing Attack

  • BUF utilizes 11 personnel at a 65% rate and 10 personnel, or 4 WRs, at an 11% rate (the second most frequent rate behind Arizona’s ridiculous 25%)
  • Snap share: Emmanuel Sanders 82.5% // Stefon Diggs 79.5% // Dawson Knox 77.7% // Cole Beasley 67.4% // Gabriel Davis 36.3%
  • Target share: Diggs 25.4% // Beasley 18.5% // Sanders 16.8% // Knox 11.6% // Davis 4.3%
  • Diggs ranks ninth in air yards, eighth in target share, and 12th in WOPR
  • His 16.4 DK ppg ranks 20th among WRs
  • Diggs’s DK log: 15.9 // 16 // 12.2 // 21.4 // 8.9 // 23.9
  • Sanders ranks 12th in air yards but averages just 15 DK ppg
  • Sanders’s DK log: 9.2 // 6.8 // 26.4 // 13.1 // 20.4 // 14.1
  • Beasley’s DK log: 14 // 7.6 // 20.8 // 3.6 // 1.5 // 21.8
  • Davis averaged 10.63 DK ppg last year
  • He’s hit double-digits just once this year, 12 vs. PIT
  • MIA ranks 28th against WRs (43.7)
  • Knox is out for at least three weeks
  • Prior to his injury, Knox ranked eighth in receiving yards among TEs
  • MIA ranks 29th against TEs (19)


  • Zack Moss missed Week 1 and was limited in Week 2
  • Since then, he’s led Devin Singletary in snaps: 44-34 // 40-32 // 42-15 // 42-35
  • Target totals for Moss vs. Singletary in those same weeks: 3-2 // 1-1 // 4-2 // 4-5
  • Touch totals: 16-12 // 14-15 // 14-7 // 10-10
  • Moss leads Singletary in red zone touches 19-11 and in red zone TDs 3-0
  • MIA ranks 27th against RBs (29.5)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 4:05pm Eastern

Patriots (
23.5) at

Chargers (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Strength on strength matchup for the Chargers offense against the Patriots defense, and borderline weakness against borderline weakness matchup for the Patriots offense against the Chargers defense.
  • This leaves this game with one of the wider range of potential outcomes on the slate when it comes to likeliest game flow.
  • We should expect the Patriots to bias towards the run for as long as they remain within striking distance; the problem with that is they refuse to give any one running back more than 18-20 opportunities on a standard week.
  • Likeliest game scenario keeps the Patriots in the driver seat with respect to game flow and pace, decreasing the likelihood this game pops for volume and offensive production.

How NEw England Will Try To Win ::

For all the concentration by both the media and fantasy industry on the Patriots propensity to run the football, their 13th-ranked situation neutral pass rate of 61% (the same pass rate as the Eagles) begins to tell a slightly different story. Their 19th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and 18th-ranked overall pace of play also would surprise most. Josh McDaniels has always been a coordinator adept at tailoring his offense to the strengths of his signal caller, and this year is no different. We’ve seen an offense built heavily around 21- and 12-personnel alignments (17% and 19%, respectively), timing, the power run game, and pre-snap misdirection. Bill Belichick has remained one of the best game managers in the league, routinely keeping his team in a position to win games and doing so with a rookie signal-caller. Three of the Patriots four losses have been by two points or less or come in overtime, which is a rather large testament to what this team has been able to accomplish with their first-year quarterback.

Regardless of the outcomes up to this point, the run game remains a weekly head-scratcher as far as expected usage goes. Rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson has bounced between the active and inactive list, Damien Harris has led the room in the overall snap rate but has seen 19 or more running back opportunities in just two of seven games, Brandon Bolden has been tasked with filling the pass game role vacated by James White, and JJ Taylor has filled the primary change of pace duties behind Harris, but only when Stevenson is inactive. Woof city. Furthermore, the Patriots rank just 24th in yards per carry behind an offensive line creating only the 22nd-ranked adjusted line yards at 4.10. The good news here is that their opponent for Week 8 filters opposing teams to the ground through a heavy run-funnel defensive scheme. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.53 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered the best matchup the Patriots have seen on the ground to date.

Quarterback Mac Jones has quietly thrown for the ninth most yards in the league at a non-terrible 7.6 intended air yards per pass attempt clip. That IAY/PA value still ranks in the bottom half of the league, but McDaniels and Jones have shown the combined play calling and arm ability to attack the intermediate areas of the field. Slot-man Jakobi Meyers leads the team in snap rate by a significant margin, but his snaps have trailed off over the previous two games after being a borderline every-down wide receiver to start the year. Nelson Agholor checks in second in snaps and team target market share amongst the wide receivers, but his hefty 15.3 aDOT has come with a low 52.8% catch rate and low 3.4 average YAC. Expect Kendrick Bourne, who actually checks in second amongst pass-catchers in fantasy points scored, and N’Keal Harry to round out the receiving corps, while tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith complete the pass-catching corps. Nothing has changed from our previous exploration of this tight end unit, with Henry doubling the number of routes of Jonnu, but leading him in targets by only one. The big picture with this unit is it is difficult to confidently project weekly volume and the matchup this week tilts extremely run-heavy against a run-funnel opposing defense. 

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

We know the Chargers play with pace (quickest situation-neutral pace of play in the league) and we know they utilize heavy pass rates (fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate in the league) and we know the Chargers are capable of erupting in perceived difficult spots (see their game against the Browns), but this team floats around the middle of the pack in points per game at 24.7 and has seen only moderate success in the red zone (15th-ranked 61.54% red zone touchdown rate). Their fifth-ranked drive success rate includes an eighth-ranked point per drive value (2.55) and they have run 71 or more offensive plays in all but two games. Considering the matchup, the pace-down nature of their opponent (yes, every other team is technically a pace-down matchup), and the extremely run-funnel nature of their own defense, we’re left with a situation where it is likeliest the Chargers fall short of their 11th-ranked 66.2 plays per game average.

On the ground, Austin Ekeler typically resides in the 60-65% snap rate range and has seen five or more targets in every game since the Week 1 outlier in which he saw zero targets. 13-15 rush attempts and five to seven targets should be considered his standard range of outcomes as far as expected opportunities go, and he carries an inflated weekly ceiling due to his heavy red zone role (seven touchdowns in the team’s first six games). Behind Ekeler, expect Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson to fill modest change of pace roles. The matchup on the ground yields a modest 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combine for a 47.5% team target market share, while Austin Ekeler adds 12.9% as well (Mike Williams got in a limited practice Wednesday following a bye week after he was injured in Week 6). Jaylen Guyton typically resides in the 55-60% snap rate range and is utilized in a deep role, while rookie Joshua Palmer plays only a modest role on this offense. Tight ends Jared Cook and Donald Parham split snaps at a near-even rate. Cook has run more than double the routes as Parham (183 to 71), but each is involved enough to limit the upside of their position-mate. The Patriots cut down on the league average in completion rate allowed but allow below average yards per pass attempt and yards allowed per completion.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We’re likeliest to see the Patriots begin the game looking to control the pace, tempo, and flow via an above-average defense (14th in DVOA against both the pass and the run), a moderate pace of play, and inflated rush rates. We know McDaniels will both tailor his base offense to the personnel available to him and take the opponent into account when game planning for each game. The clearest way to squeeze out a victory here is for the Patriots to bias ground-heavy against a run-funnel defensive unit and keep the ball away from the high-octane offense of the Chargers. This would lower the total number of offensive plays from both sides here (the Chargers rank 11th in plays per game at 66.2 while the Patriots rank 19th at 62.3). The moderate expected total plays and “prevent” defenses from each team provide a game environment likely to bias all players towards efficiency and touchdowns for their fantasy utility, making most players high-variance plays this week.

The Chargers should be considered the team likeliest to alter that expected likeliest game flow, but the chances of them going up by multiple scores early are fairly low. The Patriots maintain their defensive philosophy from years prior, where they are fine allowing production between the twenties (eighth-most plays allowed per drive) but crack down in the red zone (seventh-fewest points allowed per drive and ninth-best red zone touchdown rate allowed). This has a high percentage chance of keeping the Patriots within striking distance for the duration of the game, likely leading to a situation where the Patriots can continue to try and slow the game down against the team leading the league in situation-neutral pace of play.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • This has the fourth highest total, moving up one pt to 48.5
  • LAC is favored by -5.5 but the line has moved towards NE a half pt
  • These teams played last year but NE had Cam Newton
  • NE won 45-0, rushing for 165 yds
  • NE is averaging 36 pts over their last three: 54 // 29 // 25
  • LAC allows the 11th most pts/g (25.0)
  • Their offense struggled last week vs BAL scoring just six pts 
  • LAC pts for: 6 // 47 // 28 // 30 // 17 // 20
  • This ranks 13th in pts/g (24.7)
  • NE allows 20 pts/g, sixth best

Mac Jones: 

  • Pass atts: 36 // 21 // 30 // 40 // 51 // 30 // 39
  • His ceiling game (25.2) came last week in a game NE scored 54 pts
  • This was the only game in which he’s topped 20 DK pts & 300 yds passing
  • Price last three weeks: $5.3k // $5.2k // $5.3k
  • It moved down $100 this week
  • LAC allows the fifth least DK pts to WRs (16.8), third least atts (30.8), & the eighth least yds per comp (9.5)

NE RBs: 

  • Damien Harris in last years matchup: 16:80 yds:0 TDs (Cam Newton: 14:48:2 TDs)
  • RB snap share last week: Harris-46% // Brandon Bolden-28% // JJ Taylor-26% // Rhamondre Stevenson-healthy scratch
  • Harris rush attempts: 6 // 4 // 14 // 18 // 14
  • Bolden tgts: 7 // 1 // 4 // 6 // 4 // 0
  • Harris has 100+ yds in back to back games & 4 TDs in his last 3 games
  • His price is a season high $6.1k
  • All three NE RBs scored last week: Harris-2 rush // Stevenson-1 rush // Bolden-1 rec
  • LAC allows 29.8 rush atts/g (5th highest) & 30.3 DK Pts/g to RBs  (4th most)


  • Jakobi Myers leads the team in tgts (59) but has zero TDs this season (& in his career)
  • The next five players in tgts for NE have all scored this season
  • WR tgts: Myers-59 // Agholor-36 // Bourne-28 
  • Myers tgts: 7 // 6 // 5 // 12 // 14 // 6 // 9
  • No NE WR has topped 100 rec yds this season
  • LAC allows the least DK pts/g in the league to WRs (25.6)

Justin Herbert:

  • Herbert in last years matchup: 26:53:209yds:0TDs:2INTs // 3 sacks
  • His price ($7.3k) didn’t move from last week & is still at his season high
  • It started the season at $6.7k
  • DK pts: @ BAL-12.0 // vs CLE-45.8 // vs LV-21.3 // @ KC-30.8 // vs DAL-19.7 // @ WAS-18.4
  • LAC ranks 3rd in pass atts/g (41.2)
  • Herbert has attempted 30+ passes in every game: 39 // 43 // 38 // 38 // 41 // 47
  • NE allows a middling 35.1 pass atts/g (14th), 18.5 DK pts to QBs (9th least), & 245.0 pass yds/g (16th)

Austin Ekeler: 

  • Austin Ekeler last season vs NE: 8:36 yds // 4:32 yds, 9 tgts
  • Ekeler has the 3rd highest salary of RBs this week ($7.9k)
  • DK pts: @ BAL-9.5 // vs CLE-33.9 // vs LV-32.5 // @ KC-22.7 // vs DAL-22.5 // @ WAS-11.7
  • At least five tgts in every game besides the weird Week 1: 7 // 5 // 5 // 6 // 9 // 0
  • NE allows 23.3 DK pts to RBs (14th least)


  • Keenan Allen (11) & Mike Williams (9) combined for 20 tgts last yr vs NE
  • No WR topped 50 yds 
  • Allen: 5:48 yds // Williams 4:43 yds
  • Target Share: Allen-24% // Williams-23% // Jalon Guyton-7.5% (Jared Cook-14%) (Ekeler-13%)
  • Allen tgts: 5 // 9 // 11 // 12 // 8 // 13
  • Williams tgts: 5 // 16 // 4 // 9 // 10 // 12 
  • RZ tgts: Williams-8 // Allen-11 // (Cook-7)
  • Williams has 6 TDs (2 multi TD games) // Keenan has 1 TD 
  • Last season Keenan had 8 TDs, Williams had 5
  • Allen hasn’t topped 20 DK pts since Week 1 NE allows a middling 23.3 DK pts to WRs (14th)

Jared Cook:

  • Third in team tgts (33)
  • Tgts by week: 7 // 3 // 7 // 3 // 5 // 8
  • DK pts: 12.5 // 3.9 // 19.0 // 4.7 // 5.8 // 10.6
  • NE allows the fifth least DK pts to TEs (8.5)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 4:05pm Eastern

Jaguars (
20.25) at

Hawks (

Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>
  • Seattle is a completely different team without Russell Wilson.
  • Jacksonville is coming off their first win of the season, which came on a last-second field goal in London against the Dolphins.
  • This is a unique situation with one team (Jacksonville) coming off their bye and the other (Seattle) playing on a short week after losing to the Saints on Monday Night Football.
  • This game likely has a narrow range of outcomes from a scoring standpoint, as both defenses are poor enough that each team should score some points but neither offense is explosive enough to have much expectation for either team to score 30+ points.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville has changed routes over the course of the season, as injuries have condensed the workloads of their skill players and they have become much more balanced on offense while handing James Robinson the clear feature back role he enjoyed last season. The Jaguars have the 2nd ranked DVOA rushing offense (shocking for a 1-5 team) and will look to pound the rock in this spot. Seattle’s defense has played well since losing Russell Wilson and has given them chances at the end of games. We should expect that the Jaguars will lean on their running game here and they will likely try to “keep it close” and not make mistakes until late in the game if a change in approach is needed. 

The Jaguars passing game has become more efficient as they have established their strong running game over the past several weeks. While I don’t necessarily expect them to be overly aggressive in this spot, Trevor Lawrence was one of the highest touted QB prospects we have ever seen coming out and is coming off his first win. Rookie QBs often take some time to settle into the NFL and we could see him start to become the QB we expected as he comes out of the bye week. It would not be shocking to see Lawrence and the passing game have success moving the ball this week. Jacksonville should have moderate success moving the ball and sustaining drives, while it may be tough for them to punch those drives in for TDs against a feisty Seahawks defense.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Seattle has turned into a shell of themselves since Russel Wilson’s injury, scoring only 47 total points in the last three games. Prior to that, the Seahawks were averaging a robust 26.75 points per game despite facing a solid schedule. With their Week 7 game against the Saints being played in significant rain, they only threw the ball 22 times, and, outside of a bomb to DK Metcalf in the first quarter, only had 83 passing yards the rest of the game.

We should expect slightly more passing from the Seahawks this week as they face the Jaguars dead last pass defense (32nd in DVOA). That being said, Geno Smith has not impressed over the last three weeks and it is unlikely that the highly competitive Pete Carroll truly puts the game in Geno’s hands here as the Seahawks season is hanging on by a thread as they sit at 2-5 through seven weeks. The Seahawks have a bye in Week 9 and Russell Wilson is eligible to return from IR against the Packers in Week 10, so a win here would be critical for their chances of staying alive and regrouping for the stretch run. The “big picture” is critical here as the Seahawks truly have to approach this with a “One Week Season” mentality and will be taking this game much more seriously than they likely expected to need to when they first saw the schedule. Seattle will try to “establish the run” here, with their low volume passing focused on their primary pass-catchers as well as some short-area work for their ancillary pieces. Without Russell Wilson to make elite throws and create offense when things break down, Seattle will need to rely on their scheme to open things up for Geno Smith.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This sets up as a slow-paced game as the Jags and Seahawks rank 22nd and 25th, respectively, in situation-neutral pass rate over the last three weeks. The Jaguars were playing at a relatively fast pace the first three weeks and also throwing at a high rate, but have pumped the brakes significantly over the last few weeks. Both offenses are likely to move the ball with decent success this week. However, there is a very real chance that this turns into a field goal contest as the Seahawks have been solid at “bend but don’t break” defense and without a strong running game or a high degree of trust in Geno Smith, the Seahawks may also struggle in the red zone. Lack of red zone success and play calling that keeps the clock running on both sides of the ball is not a recipe for a very exciting game flow, although we have seen crazier things.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • SEA game totals with Russ: 44 // 63 // 47 // 49 // 43
  • SEA game totals with Geno: 43 // 23
  • JAC game totals: 58 // 36 // 50 // 45 // 56 // 43

Geno Smith:

  • Geno’s three non-Jets starts: 2017 (212:1:0, 3:13) // 2021 (209:1), (167:1, 3:12)
  • QB yds:TDs vs JAC: 291:2 // 328:2 // 316:0:1 // 348:2 // 197:1 // 329:2:1
  • JAC ranks 32nd in def pass DVOA and has given up the 2nd highest yds/att
  • Geno has thrown 32 & 22 times in his two SEA starts


  • Targets with Geno: Lockett (14) // Metcalf (15) // Swain (10)
  • Metcalf yds: 60:1 // 53 // 107:1 // 65:1 // 98:2 // 58 // 96:1
  • Metcalf had 60+ yds in 11/17 games last season
  • WRs over 60 yds vs JAC: Cooks (132) // Sutton (159) // Green (112), Kirk (104) // Boyd (118), Chase (77) // Waddle (70:2), Hollins (61)
  • JAC has allowed the 2nd highest success rate & yds/att to WRs
  • Lockett has just 4:47 in the two Geno starts
  • Lockett’s high is just 57 yds since his explosion in W1 & W2
  • Last three aforementioned Geno Smith starts::
  • Engram (7:99:1, 8tg) // Shepard (3:56, 6tg) // King (4:23, 9tg)
  • Metcalf (6:58) // Everett (2:40) // Lockett (2:35) // Dissly (2:8:1)
  • Metcalf (2:96:1) // Swain (4:39) // Lockett (2:12) // Everett (3:11)


  • Top SEA RB rush att in 2021: Carson (16, 13, 12, 13) // Collins (15, 20, 16)
  • Top SEA RB total yds in 2021: Carson (117, 31, 82) // Collins (78, 72, 98, 44)
  • RBs with 10+ rush att vs JAC: Ingram (85:1) // Williams (64), Gordon (31) // Conner (43:2), Conner (26) // Mixon (67:1) // Henry (130:3)
  • JAC ranks 20th in def rush DVOA

Trevor Lawrence:

  • QB pass yds vs SEA: 251 // 347 // 323 // 322 // 365 // 229 // 222
  • SEA has allowed 11 pass TDs to 2 INT
  • Lawrence has 7 pass TDs to 8 INT (+2 rush TDs)
  • Lawrence has just 1 INT in the last three games, as well as both his rush TDs


  • SEA has allowed the 6th most WR rec yds, with four 100-yd WRs (+ AK’s 128 rec yds)
  • Notable WRs vs SEA: Pascal (4:43:2) // Julio (6:128) // Jefferson (9:118:1), Thielen (6:50:1) // Deebo (8:156:2) // Woods (12:150), Kupp (7:92) // Diontae (9:71)
  • SEA has allowed the 4th most completed air yds
  • Targets: MJJ (9, 11, 8, 3, 6, 10) // Viska (9, 7, 4, 7, 3, 10)
  • Production w/o Chark: MJJ (3:24 // 1:25 // 7:100:1) // Viska (6:99 // 1:58 // 6:54)

Dan Arnold:

  • TEs vs SEA: Doyle (3:21) // Pruitt (3:43) // Conklin (7:70:1) // Kittle (4:40, Dwelley TD) // Freiermuth (7:58) // Trautman (3:36)
  • Arnold with JAC: 2:29 // 6:64 // 2:27

James Robinson:

  • Robinson total touches: 11 // 14 // 21 // 20 // 19 // 21
  • RBs vs SEA in 2021 (total yds): Taylor (116), Hines (82) // Henry (237) // Mattison (171) // Sermon (89) // Henderson (99) // Najee (127) // AK (179)
  • Robinson total yds: 54 // 64 // 134 // 76 // 147 // 101
  • SEA has allowed 7 RB TDs
  • Robinson has scored 5 TDs
  • SEA has allowed the highest success rate & yds/att on RB tg in 2021
  • 474 road dog RBs since 2014 averaging 15+ rush att have scored 0.66 pts above salary-based expectation (15.35 pts/g on avg) with 46% consistency and an average of 8.6% ownership in large tournaments
  • When the spread is within 5 pts, the sample is cut to 236 RBs, but the pts above salary-based expectation jumps to 1.55 (16.76 pts/g on avg), consistency jumps to 50.8%, and ownership rises to 9.6% on avg

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 4:25pm Eastern

20) at

Broncos (

Over/Under 44.0


Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game could produce more points than the total is predicting
  • The game flow will be dictated by how aggressive the Broncos want to play
  • Both backfields are timeshares
  • Teddy Bridgewater offers plenty of “cheap QB” appeal

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The 2-5 Football Team is coming into Week 8 with quickly fading hopes for their season. Ron Rivera is one of the more aggressive head coaches in the league but it’s hard to win games in the NFL with a replacement-level QB. The WFT is fresh off losses to the Packers/Chiefs/Saints, none of which were competitive contests. Regardless of their roster’s shortcomings, this coaching staff will “try to win” and has thrown the ball nearly 40 times a game during those three losses. The Football Team pushes the pace (6th situational neutral), and throw a lot doing so, but they just don’t have the talent to be an above-average team.

This week they draw a disappointing Broncos defense that has been attackable on the ground (26th in DVOA) and through the air (24th in DOVA). With no clear path of least resistance to tilt the game plan heavily away from their usual strategy, expect the Football Team to come out playing fast and aggressively, with the hopes that something will click. Rivera knows that his defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone and that his offense will need to score points if his team is going to be in games. 

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Broncos come into this game riding a four-game losing streak against the Ravens/Steelers/Raiders/Browns. In a division that includes the Chiefs and Chargers, this Broncos team already has to be in must-win mode. The Broncos prefer to play slow (29th in situational neutral pace) which teams typically do when they want to “hide their QB” and allow their defenses to win games. This Broncos team profiled that way to begin the year, but their defense has been disappointing, and Teddy Bridgewater has been what he’s always been, good enough. The Broncos would be wise to give Bridgewater a little more leeway to run a quicker, more aggressive offense, designed to score the points that it requires to win with a vulnerable defense. There is no indication that the Broncos plan to change their game plan, which means we can expect a slow-paced, balanced offense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 43-point total, mostly because of the way the Broncos play. The Football Team is a team that is likely to produce shootouts (or at least good DFS scores). That’s because they have a defense that can’t stop anyone through the air (29th in DVOA) while being strong against the run (8th in DVOA), creating one of the clearest pass funnels in the league. The Washington Football Team is also a fast-paced, aggressive offense, that will keep trying to fight back. When the WFT faces a team with an offense that we can project to throw successfully against them, it’s easy to target players in that game. Unfortunately, the Broncos are not a team we (or Vegas) can expect to do anything other than suck the life out of this game. The most likely game flow is both teams struggle to move the ball, creating a close, low-scoring contest. 



Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • 8th highest total (44) w/ DEN favored by 3
  • WAS D allows the most pts/g in the league (30.0)
  • They’ve allowed 20+ in every game: GB-24 // KC-31 // NO-33 // ATL-30 // BUF-43 // NYG-29 // LAC-20
  • DEN D allows the 4th least ptg/g (18.1) despite losing four straight: CLE-17 // LV-34 // PT-27 // BAL-23 // NYJ-0 // JAC-13 // NYG-13
  • Points/g: WAS-20.9 (22nd) // DEN-20.0 (24th)

Tyler Heinicke:

  • Heinicke has shown he can pay off his salary w/ four of six full games above 20 DK pts: GB-22.22 (4.27x) // ATL-27.90 (4.72x) // BUF-23.38 (4.18x) // NYG-24.04 (4.29x)
  • His salary is down to $5.3k from a season high of $5.9k
  • Pass attempts: 37 // 39 // 41 // 33 // 24 // 46 // 15
  • DEN allows the 7th least pass attempts/g (32.4) & allow just 16.1 DK pts/g to QBs (3rd lowest) but rank 24th in DVOA against the pass
  • They also allow the lowest completion % in the league (57.71%)


  • WAS ranks 13th in rush yds/g
  • DEN allows the eighth least rush yds/g (99.3)
  • Antonio Gibson has yet to crack 100 rush yds
  • His price is down to $5.7k from a season high of $6.5k from two weeks ago
  • Gibson atts: 14 // 10 // 20 // 14 // 12 // 13 // 20
  • He hasn’t see over 3 tgts since week one in which he saw five
  • JD McKissic rush atts: 4 // 8 // 2 // 7 // 3 //4 // 1
  • McKissic tgts: 6 // 10 // 4 // 5 // 2 // 6 // 1 
  • He ranks second on the team in tgts (14% share)
  • His price matches his season high ($5.2k)
  • DEN allows the ninth least DK pts to RBs (21.3)

Terry McLaurin:

  • McLaurin is priced as the 4th highest WR this week ($7.6k)
  • This is his highest price of the season 
  • He has three games above 100 rec yds & four double digit tgt games
  • Tgts: 12 // 8 // 11 // 13 // 7 // 14 // 4
  • This is a 28.6% tgt share, sixth highest in the league
  • He ranks 3rd in the NFL in ADOT (12.9 yds) only trailing Courtland Sutton (16.34) & Marquise Brown (15.93)
  • DEN allows the ninth least DK pts to WRs (35.3)

Ricky Seals-Jones:

  • RSJ has played all but six snaps since Logan Thomas got injured
  • Tgts last three: 6 // 4 // 5 
  • His price three weeks ago was bare min ($2.5k)
  • He’s now up to a season high of $3.8k
  • DEN allows the third least DK pts to TEs (8.2)
  • They held Darren Waller to 5:59:0 TDs & Mark Andrews to 5:67:0 TDs

Teddy Bridgewater:

  • Bridgewater’s price is down to $5.4k from a season high of $5.8k
  • In three of seven games, he’s cracked 20 DK pts: 14.8 // 25.3 // 19.6 // 6.8 // 11.8 // 24.2 // 20.5
  • Pass Atts: 33 // 49 // 38 // 16 // 25 // 34 // 36
  • Bridgewater ranks 7th in air yds & eighth in aDOT (8.92)
  • WAS allows the most pass yds/g (300.6), the 7th highest yds/comp (7.6), and allows the most DK pts to QBs (28.8)


  • WAS allows a middling 23.3 DK pts/g to RBs
  • DEN rush atts: Melvin Gordon-8, 10, 9, 9, 18, 13, 11 // Javonte Williams-4 // 11 // 8 // 7 // 12 // 13 // 14
  • Tgts: Gordon-3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 2, 3 // Williams-7, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 1
  • Williams has at least 3 rec in the last 5 games
  • Both these RBs have stayed in the $5k range all season
  • Williams is now at a season high $5.3k but has yet to break 20 DK pts
  • Gordon hasn’t broke 20 DK pts since Week 1 @ NYG (23.8)


  • Jerry Jeudy is expected to return this week after getting injured Week 1
  • Jeudy saw 7 tgts Week 1 going 6:72 yds (Fant-8 tgts // Hamler (IR)-4 // Patrick-4 // Sutton-3)
  • Jeudy had a Week 1 price of $4.8k & is just $4.9k this week
  • Courtland Sutton leads the league in Air Yards (948) & sixth aDot (16.34) (min 15 tgts)
  • Sutton’s price has risen from a Week 1 price of $5.2k to $6.4k (season high) this week (he was also $6.4k last Week)
  • He has three games of 10+ tgts: 5 // 14 // 11 // 8 // 5 // 12 // 3
  • WAS allows the second most DK pts to WR (46.7), 24th highest yds/comp (11.4), & third most comp/g (26.4)

Noah Fant:

  • Tgts: 7 // 11 // 4 // 10 // 3 // 6 // 8
  • WAS allows 14.8 DK pts to TEs (14th most)
  • Fant has yet to break 100 rec yds but does have games of 97 & 62 w/ three TDs
  • DK pts: 8.9 // 24.7 // 5.0 // 16.6 // 3.5 // 13.3 // 12.2
  • His salary has been in the $4.8-$5.0k range the last three weeks ($4.9k this week)
  • This makes him the fourth most expensive TE on the slate (Pitts, Hockenson, Gesicki are higher)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 4:25pm Eastern

Bucs (
26.25) at

Saints (

Over/Under 48.5


Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Bucs rank first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and third in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt; Saints rank first in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt and third in the league in rushing yards per game.
  • Bucs rank second in situation-neutral pass rate on the season at 66% but “just” 13th in the league over the previous four weeks (a 59% rate over games against the Patriots for Tom’s return to Foxboro, a Dolphins team they beat by 28 points, the run-funnel Eagles, and the run-funnel Bears).
  • We should see each team tilt pass-heavy here, with clear paths for the expected pass volume to flow.
  • Although we have a wide range of potential outcomes regarding the Saints, the two most likely game flows place high emphasis on Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski (if he returns).

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Tom Brady led Buccaneers rank second in the league in situation-neutral pass rate over the full season and 13th in the same metric over the previous four weeks. The opponents and respective game environments can largely explain the drop in pass rates over that time, with Brady’s emotional return to Foxboro, a game against the Dolphins in which they beat them by 28 points, a game against the run-funnel Eagles, and a game against the run-funnel Bears making up their last four contests. That said, Brady has a season-low in pass attempts of 36 (last week in a blowout win and Week 2 against Atlanta in a blowout win) with all other games checking in with a minimum of 41 pass attempts. The two neutral to negative game script games were in the Week 1 narrow victory over the Cowboys and their only loss of the season versus the Rams; these games led to 50 and 55 pass attempts. It is clear the Buccaneers will remain aggressive for as long as it is deemed necessary by both Brady and head coach Bruce Arians. Their matchup with the Saints this week hints at a return to a more pass-heavy game plan against a defense stout against the run (second in DVOA against the run and third in rushing yards allowed per game), with the ceiling in pass attempts dictated by game flow and how many offensive plays the Bucs can run from scrimmage and score on the scoreboard.

Week 7 marked the triumphant return of Ke’Shawn Vaughn to Tampa Bay’s rushing matrix (I kid) in a game the Buccaneers had in hand at the half. On a standard week, we should expect Leonard Fournette to reside in the 60 to 65% snap rate range, which has ballooned his running back opportunity levels over the previous four weeks to 25, 17, 28, and 19. We already covered why we think the Bucs have shown a lower propensity to pass over the previous four weeks, which is less likely to be the case against the Saints. Boosting Fournette’s weekly floor and ceiling is a strong pass game involvement (four to seven targets in six of seven games, with the “outlier” game checking in at three targets), keeping him in the weekly “tier below bell cow status” range of running backs. His four touchdowns on the season have all come in the team’s last three games, which stands as the biggest detriment to his expected range of outcomes. Expect Ronald Jones to continue to operate as the primary change of pace back, with Giovanni Bernard forcing his way onto the field in obvious passing situations and the two-minute offense. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.11 net-adjusted line yards metric against the top-rated run defense in the league from an adjusted line yards perspective.

It appears likely the Buccaneers will remain without Antonio Brown for Week 8, who continues to deal with a “tricky ankle sprain located near the heel.” The good news for the team is the likely return to action of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has missed the previous four games with fractured ribs and a pierced lung. What took him so long to make his way back onto the field? I mean, he did finish the game in which he broke the ribs. All kidding aside, the addition of Gronkowski could not come at a better time, as Saints standout corner Marshon Lattimore has completely owned Mike Evans over the years. Lattimore has typically been held to shadow matchups on wide receivers that profile as Evans does (think your prototypical, big-bodied “X” receiver). The presence of Chris Godwin has kept Gronk in-line for the majority of his snaps this year (128 of 151 offensive snaps in-line, or 84.8%), and Tampa Bay’s heavy 11-personnel (70%) and 12-personnel (19%) rates paint a clear picture of how the pass offense likes to operate. Gronk played 88% and 81% of the offensive snaps in his two fully healthy games prior to missing a few series in Week 3, but it remains to be seen how often he would see the field in his first game back. Considering the relative lack of production seen from the tight end position in the absence of Gronk, I’d expect him to play as many snaps as his health will allow should he return this week. OJ Howard played over 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the last four games but saw more than three targets only once, while Cameron Brate saw 55% or more of the offensive snaps in three of the last four games but caught only six of the 15 targets over that span. For comparison, Gronk caught 12 of his 13 targets over the first two games of the season and scored four touchdowns. Tyler Johnson delivered on my expectation for him to almost directly step into Antonio Brown’s vacated role, which could see a level of uncertainty introduced this week with the potential return of Scottie Miller.  

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Note: Mark Ingram has been traded to the Saints but this doesn’t change much with regard to Kamara’s expected usage.

The Saints represent one of the most interesting studies when trying to analyze how they will try to win this game. We’ve seen both “good Jameis” and “bad Jameis” this season. We’ve seen the Saints open up the offense a bit over the previous two weeks against opponents best attacked through the air, and we know head coach Sean Payton is one of the better game planners and game managers in the league. This creates a wide range of potential outcomes for the Saints, considering the Bucs are so very clearly best attacked through the air (fewest opponent rush attempts per game, first in yards allowed per carry to opposing running backs, 18th in DVOA against the pass). We could see Payton come out firing, with a game plan designed to take the game to the Bucs. We could see Payton rely on Kamara heavily, as he’s done over the previous four weeks – both on the ground and through the air. And we could see the game plan rendered useless with “bad Jameis.” Although a seemingly small transition, the Saints hold a situation-neutral pass rate increase of 9% over their previous two games when compared to their seasonal average. That’s a pretty drastic increase, and it directly correlates to competitive games against teams best attacked through the air. I don’t think it’s farfetched to project Jameis for his highest pass attempts of the season here, which should land in the 36-38 pass attempt range.

The ground game has run almost entirely through Alvin Kamara, but the matchup yields a startling 4.02 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent that leads the league in opponent rushing allowed. The interesting part comes in the form of Kamara’s pass game usage over the previous two games, games where it made sense that he saw increased usage. This week presents another matchup that would make sense for him to see increased pass game usage (19 targets over the previous two contests). In total, we should expect between 25 and 30 running back opportunities for Kamara against an opponent filtering the third-most targets to opposing backfields. 

Through the air, the primary answer is once again Alvin Kamara, who leads the team in targets as well. The matchup very clearly tilts the expectation towards a pass-heavy attack for the Saints here, but the extent of that increase remains up to Sean Payton’s game plan, the effectiveness of Jameis, and the game flow. The Bucs are reeling on the back end with injuries and ineffective play, presenting an opportunity for one of the ancillary pass-catchers (yes, everyone not named Kamara is an ancillary pass-catcher in this offense) to assert themselves here. Marquez Callaway and Adam Trautman see the field the most, but Trautman has run a staggeringly low 62 routes this season and Callaway holds a disgusting 57.1% catch rate on the season. Each can hit in an aggressive game plan, but the respective floors are low here. Behind those two, the return of Tre’Quan Smith led to a near-even split in snaps with Kenny Stills, each of whom remained largely ineffective.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Based on the analytics and tendencies shown by each team up to this point, we’re likely to see both tilt more pass-heavy here. That could spell trouble for the Saints considering the borderline bipolar stat lines exhibited by quarterback Jameis Winston this season: two games of 70% completion rate or better, two games that he combined for nine touchdowns, but three of six games with a 55% completion rate or worse, three of six games with one touchdown pass or fewer, and only two of six games with more than 23 pass attempts. The wide range of outcomes associated with the quarterback of the Saints leaves us with a game environment that has the greatest chance of being driven by the Tom Brady-led Bucs, who are likeliest to return to a pass-heavy approach against a defense that is nails against the run. This would, in turn, force increased pass attempts from Winston and the Saints, leading to more opportunities for both splash plays and mistakes.

At the same time, I wouldn’t completely rule out Sean Payton and the Saints coming out firing against what should be their stiffest test of the season. The term “measuring stick” is a bit misleading and overused, but this game carries a fairly direct correlation for how we can assume the Saints are viewing their Week 8 opponent. If that ends up being the case, and the Saints come out firing aggressively through the air, this game would have all the makings of a true shootout-style matchup.

Finally, when two of the top defenses in the league meet, there is always the possibility we see a slugfest, but I would consider that the lowest probability chance of happening here. The two highest likelihood game flows involve the Saints coming out firing through the air and finding success, or the Bucs taking an early lead and forcing the Saints into increased aerial aggression as the game progresses.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Payton is 6-2 vs Arians: 31-7, 19-31, 48-41, 31-24, 34-17, 34-23, 38-3, 20-30
  • That’s combined totals of: 38 // 50 // 89 // 55 // 51 // 57 // 41 // 50
  • Payton won the only matchup of the 8 without Brees 31-24 behind 4 Teddy TDs
  • Tampa is favored by 5.5 pts in New Orleans
  • NOR has only been home dogs of 4+ pts twice since 2014, losing both to the eventual SB runner-ups (‘15 CAR // ‘17 NE)
  • TB is the defending champ and current SB favorite

Tom Brady:

  • Arians’s (1 OC, 6 HC) offensive point totals vs Allen (DC): 23, 34, 24, 17, 23, 3, 30
  • QB pass yds vs NOR: 201 // 305 // 270 // 402 // 248 // 167
  • Brady’s pass yds: 379 // 276 // 432 // 269 // 411 // 297 // 211
  • NOR has faced the 10th most pass att/g at 37.8 per game
  • Brady’s pass att: 50 // 36 // 55 // 43 // 41 // 42 // 36
  • NOR has allowed 6 QB TDs to 9 INT and ranks 6th in def pass DVOA
  • Brady has 21 TDs to 3 INT


  • Mike Evans career vs Lattimore Saints: 1:13 (6 tg) // 5:55 (13) // 7:147:1 (7) // 4:86 (6) // 0:0 (3) // 1:2:1 (4) // 4:64 (6) // 1:3:1 (3)
  • Godwin vs NOR with Arians: 7:125:2 // 3:47:1 // 6:79 // 4:64 // 4:34
  • #1 WRs vs 2021 NOR: Adams (5:56) // Moore (8:79:1) // Meyers (9:94) // Golladay (6:116) // McLaurin (4:46) // Metcalf (2:96:1)
  • Only BUF has faced a higher WR target rate than NOR
  • NOR has allowed the 8th lowest success rate to WRs
  • Eight WRs have 70+ yds vs NOR this season
  • TB tg 2021: Godwin (58) // Evans (59) // Brown (42)
  • TB tg without AB: Godwin (7, 11) // Evans (10, 10) // Johnson (6, 2) // Brate (5, 4)
  • Rob Gronkowski vs NOR in 2020: 2:11 // 1:2 // 1:14

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette rush att: 9 // 11 // 4 // 20 // 12 // 22 // 15
  • Fournette targets: 7 // 4 // 3 // 5 // 5 // 6 // 4
  • Fournette tot touches: 16 // 15 // 7 // 25 // 17 // 28 // 19
  • Fournette rush yds: 32 // 52 // 8 // 92 // 67 // 81 // 81
  • Fournette rec yds: 27 // 24 // 26 // 47 // 43 // 46 // 9
  • Fournette tot yds: 59 // 76 // 34 // 139 // 110 // 127 // 90
  • NOR ranks 2nd in defensive rush DVOA, but has allowed the 7th highest yds/att to RBs through the air (16th in def success rate)
  • Lead RB rushing vs NOR: Jones (5:9) // CMC (24:72:1) // Harris (6:14) // Saquon (13:52:1) // Gibson (20:60:2) // Collins (16:35)
  • The best RBs vs NOR thus far were CMC, Saquon, Gibson, and they still combined for just 184 yds on 57 att in 13 quarters
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2)
  • That’s 13 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 59 games
  • 13/13 scored a TD /// 6/13 scored 2 TDs /// 9/13 had 5+ rec /// 12/13 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Of the four without 5 rec, one had 82 yd TD, one caught a deep WR pass TD, one had 28 rush att, and all four scored 2 TDs
  • 2021: CMC & Saquon combined for 10 rec, 29.9 DK rec pts vs NOR
  • 2021: CMC, Saquon, & Gibson combined for 5 TDs vs NOR
  • Fournette has 4 TDs in the last three games

Jameis Winston:

  • Jameis Winston has thrown the ball just 20, 22, 21, 23, 30, 35 times
  • He’s been throwing more lately with back to back 30 att games, and now faces a TB def facing the 2nd most pass att/g at 40.6
  • Brees pass att vs Bowles TB def: 35 // 30 // 32 // 34
  • QB pass yds vs TB: 403 // 300 // 343 // 275 // 275 // 115 // 184
  • TB has forced 10 INT in seven games
  • Winston has thrown just 3 INT in six games so far
  • TB blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL
  • Jameis on 42 blitzed dropbacks: 23/38 for 233 yds, 4 TD, INT, 3 sacks
  • Winston’s big-time-throw rate (PFF) drops vs blitz, and his turnover-worthy-play rate (PFF) jumps


  • WRs with 60+ yds vs TB: Cooper (13:139:2), Lamb (7:104:1) // Ridley (7:63:1) // Kupp (9:96:2), Jackson (3:120:1) // Meyers (8:70) // Williams (3:60) 
  • With the Saints low pass volume, the only WRs over 70 yds have been Harris (2:72:1 // 1:72:1) & Callaway (2:74 // 4:85:2)
  • Tre’Quan Smith finished with 1 rec for 11 yds in his first game of the season
  • Smith & Stills both left big plays on the field vs SEA, as NOR has been more frequently dialing up shots downfield than in the most recent Brees years
  • Targets last week with no Deonte & with Smith: Callaway (7) // Smith (3) // Stills (3) // Trautman (3)
  • Callaway has 5+ tg in 3/6 games: 2 // 4 // 5 // 2 // 8 // 7

Adam Trautman:

  • Trautman has 43 & 36 yds in the last two games
  • NOR is expected to trail and be forced to pass more vs TB
  • TEs vs TB: Jarwin/Schultz (9:65) // Pitts (5:73) // Higbee (5:40:1) // Henry (4:32:1), Jonnu (3:14:1) // Gesicki (4:43) // Ertz (4:29:1) // Kmet (5:43)
  • TB allowed 14.2 & 14.0 DK pts/g to TEs in Bowles first two TB seasons
  • TB is allowing 16.2 DK pts to TEs through seven games

Alvin Kamara:

  • Kamara’s rush att: 20, 8, 24, 26, 16, 20
  • Kamara’s targets: 4, 6, 4, 0, 8, 11
  • Kamara’s total touches: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31
  • Kamara’s main backup Tony Jones is on IR
  • No team allowed fewer rush yds than TB in 2020, with the next closest team allowing nearly 200 yds more; 2019 TB allowed the fewest by 100+ yds as well
  • In 20 games, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • Gurley & AK were the only two RBs to break 20 DK pts in 2019 vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • Through seven 2021 games, TB has allowed three 20+ DK pt scores to RBs, with Patterson, Gaskin, & Herbert combining for 20 rec & 4 TDs in those games
  • Patterson (7:11:1, 5:58:1) // Gaskin (5:25, 10:74:2) // Herbert (18:100, 5:33)
  • TB allowed the most RB rec in 2020; 7.4 rec/g allowed so far in 2021
  • Kamara has 15 rec for 179 yds, 2 TD in the last two games
  • Kamara vs this Bowles TB defense::
  • Rushing: 16:62 // 13:75 // 12:16:1 // 9:40:1 // 18:85
  • Receiving: 6:42 // 10:47 // 5:51:1 // 5:9 // 3:20


  • Saints leading DK scorers against Arians/Bowles TB::
  • Thomas (44.2) // AK (16.4) // Cook (14.1) // Ginn (11.6)
  • Thomas (28.4) // AK (22.2) // Cook (11.3) // Ginn (9.4) // D/ST (17)
  • AK (23.7) // Cook (13) // Sanders (10.5) // D/ST (17)
  • AK (15.9) // Sanders (13.8) // Trautman (12.9) // Thomas (10.1) // D/ST (16)
  • Tre’Quan (23.5) // AK (13.5) // Sanders (10.8) // Cook (5.8)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 8:20pm Eastern

Cowboys (
22.25) at

Vikings (

Over/Under 49.0


Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass


Sunday night football is a game that could be really exciting, or it could be a snoozefest, as the Cowboys visit the Vikings. The game currently has a 51.5 point total with the Vikings favored by a field goal, but while Dallas was favored when the line opened, they’ve dropped significantly because Dak Prescott seems likelier than not to miss the game. If Dak plays, we would likely be in for a shootout, while if Dak misses, it’s hard to see how Dallas can find a lot of success here. I’m going . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 1st 8:15pm Eastern

Giants (
21.25) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 53.0


Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass


Week 8 wraps up with the Giants visiting the Chiefs for a 52 total game with Kansas City favored by 10. Given how bad the Chiefs defense has been this season, that’s quite a lot, and this game has some interesting tributaries that we can consider involving more of an actual shootout, or more of a Chiefs curb-stomping. Let’s dig in.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Kansas City

In the run game, Darrel Williams should continue to have lead back duties with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still out. In Week 6, that translated . . .

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