Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
22.25) at
Bears (
17.75)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is the worst game environment on the slate for DFS
  • Justin Fields doesn’t look ready for the NFL
  • Eli Mitchell is a TD/Yardage back that is priced below his chance at 100 yards and a TD
  • Herbert was a bell cow last week and is mispriced for his role

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers come into this game a disappointing 2-4, off the back of four straight losses to the Packers/Seahawks/Cardinals/Colts. While none of those opponents are pushovers, a team that is going to contend can’t go 0-4 in those games. Kyle Shanahan runs “his offense” more than he adapts to relentlessly attack an opponent’s weakness. That is because Shanny’s teams have always run “his offense” well, and a well-run Shanahan offense is hard to stop. This year’s edition of the Shanahan offense has left a lot to be desired. The 49ers want to run the ball, and their opponent sets up well to be run against. The Bears have been solid against the pass (7th in DVOA) but more susceptible on the ground (17th in DVOA), creating a mini run funnel. That setup is music to Shanahan’s ears as he will gladly keep his QB under 30 attempts if game flow allows. Expect the 49ers to come out at their usual slow pace (23rd situational natural) and try to grind the Bears down on the ground, while mixing in play-action to keep them off balance.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Bears playoff hopes are starting to fade as they are coming off two straight losses, including a 38-3 pasting at the hands of the loaded Bucs. Matt Nagy did his best to let Justin Fields attack the relative weakness of the Bucs defense and was rewarded with 184 yards and three picks. Fields doesn’t look ready for the NFL and it’s going to be difficult for this coaching staff to compete unless their QB makes large improvements. The Bears eventually “gave up” and preferred to say balanced, despite the vast gap on the scoreboard.

The Bears have played slow (26th in Situational neutral pace) to hide their deficiencies at QB. Matt Nagy is in a tough spot. He must know that Fields can’t run his offense, but he doesn’t seem capable of adjusting his offense to work for Fields. The 49ers defense is ranked about the same against the run (10th in DVOA) as they are against the pass (13th in DVOA) so the matchup shouldn’t tilt the Bears away from trying to hide Fields. Expect another game in which Nagy hopes to win by running the ball and playing defense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny 39.5 total, the lowest on the main slate. This is expected to be a battle between two slow-placed, running teams, that are going up against above-average defenses. Neither team is expected to push the pace, or force aggression from the other. The expected result is likely a slow grind-it-out affair in which it is very possible neither QB attempts more than 30 passes. There aren’t many paths that lead to this game opening up since Chicago desperately wants to hide their QB, and SF will be happy to win on defense, and on the ground.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • SF is favored by 3.5 with a total of 39.5 (opened 41.0)
  • Last three matchups between these two have been low scoring: 2018-CHI:14 SF:9 // 2017-SF:15 CHI:14 // 2016-SF:6 CHI:26
  • CHI is third to last in pts/g (14.4)
  • They’ve yet to break 24 pts in a game: TB-3 // GB-14 // DET-24 // CLE-6 // CIN-20 // LAR-14 
  • Their season high of 24 came against DET who gives up the 8th most pts/g
  • SF ranks 19th in pts/g (22.5)
  • They’ve failed to break 20 pts in three of six games: 18 // 10 // 21 // 28 // 17 // 41
  • CHI opponent pts: TB-38 // GB-24 // LV-9 // DET 14 // CLE-26 // CIN-17 // LAR-34
  • SF D has been up and down in terms of pts/g allowed: IND-30 // @ ARZ-10 // vs SEA-28 // vs GB-30 // @ PHI-11 // @ DET-33

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • In four full games, Garoppolo has yet to break 20 DK pts or throw three TDs
  • He has only one, two TD game (Week 3 vs GB, 16.7 DK pts) and no three TD games
  • It’s been eight games since Jimmy scored 20+ DK pts & 16 since a 30+ game
  • Garopollo’s price ($5.6k) has stayed in the $5.4k-$5.7k range all season
  • CHI D gives up the 12th least DK pts to QBs (19.1) 

RBs:

  • Jamycal Hasty returned from IR last week seeing six tgts but just three carries
  • Elijah Mitchell rush atts: 19 // 17 // 9 // 18
  • Mitchell has a 53% rush share in four games played
  • Removing the game Trey Lance took 16 carries, the rush share jumps to 60%
  • No other RB has more than five carries in a game when Mitchell is active
  • His price only jumped $300 this week to $5.4k despite two 100 yd+ games out of four games played
  • Other RBs in this range: Myles Gaskin-$5.6k // Khalil Herbert-$5.4k // D’Ernest Johnson-$5.4k // Damien Williams-$5.3k // Alex Collins-$5.3k
  • Trey Sermon in two starts: 29:120:1TD // 3 tgts
  • In four non-starts: 2:15
  • Sermon didn’t play a snap last week with both Hasty and MItchell active
  • RB snaps last week (of 56): Mitchell-37 // Hasty 19
  • SF is 12th in rush yds/g (120.2)
  • CHI allows the 10th most yds/g (122.1) but the 11th least DK pts to RBs (22.2)

SF WRs:

  • Deebo Samuel NFL Ranks: Second in yds/g (108.0) // Second in yac/g (53.1) // Third in WR DK pts/g (23.7)
  • Deebo SF Shares: Target-34% // Rec yds-44%
  • Deebo came into last week with just four RZ tgts but saw three & now leads the team w/ seven
  • No other WR saw a RZ tgt last week
  • Other WR RZ tgts: Mohamed Sanu-5 // Brandon Aiyuk-4
  • Deebo has ceiling games in two of five (35.9 & 38.7 DK pts) & scored 25.0 last week 
  • Deebo tgts w/ Garoppolo: 11 // 13 // 10 // 8 // 12
  • Aiyuk routes run Weeks 1-3: DNP // 40% // 59%
  • Since: 71% // 90% // 68% // 76% 
  • Tgts: Deebo-63 // Sanu-17 // Aiyuk-16 // Sherfield-10
  • Aiyuk averaged 8.0 tgts/g last season but only 3.2 this season & has yet to see over six tgts in any game so far
  • CHI allows the 6th most DK pts to WRs (42.4)

49ers TEs:

  • Week 5 & 6 routes run (of 70) w/ Kittle still on IR: Ross Dwelley-56 // Charlie Woerner-19
  • Tgts: Dwelley-4 // Woerner-3

Justin Fields:

  • CHI throws for the least pass yds/g in the league (124.4)
  • SF allows the fifth least pass yds/g (205.0)
  • Fields’ highest attempts came last week with only 22 against TB who allows 40.4/g (2nd most)
  • He’s only thrown for 200+ yds once which came against DET who allows the 22nd most (263 yds/g)
  • SF allows the fifth least pass yds/g (205.0)
  • Fields hasn’t been rushing much either averaging just 4.6 atts in five games as a starter
  • TD:INT ratio: 2:6
  • SF allows the tenth most DK pts to QBs (21.9/g)
  • Fields is $5k (3.5x=17.5 DK pts)
  • In five starts, Fields has yet to top 14.3 DK pts

CHI RBs:

  • David Montgomery could be activated from IR this week but it hasn’t happened yet and will likely be out 1-2 more weeks
  • Snap share w/o Montgomery: Khalil Herbert-73% // Damien Williams-22%
  • Herbert w/o Montgomery: 18:100, 5:33:5 tgts // 19:97:1 TD, 2:15:3 tgts // 18:75, 0 tgts
  • DK pts: 21.3 // 19.2 // 7.5
  • Price: $5.2k // $4.6k // $4.0k // This week: $5.4k
  • CHI has the third highest rush play % at 49.63 (only NO & CLE are higher)
  • SF D allows 119 rush yds/g (13th most), 27.7 atts/g (also13th most), & 4.3 yds/att (14th most)

CHI WRs:

  • With how run heavy CHI is, no WR has over an eight tgt game since Robinson’s Week 1 11 tgt game
  • SF D allows the sixth least pass atts/g (32.3) & fifth least rec yds (205.0)
  • Mooney has the only 100+ yd game
  • Mooney’s price started at $4.0k but has since risen steadily to this week’s season high of $4.8k
  • His ceiling game of 21.5 pts came at his cheapest price of $3.9k vs DET
  • To pay off 3.5x: 5 rec:60 yds: 1 TD
  • Mooney tgts: 5 // 8 // 5 // 7 // 4 // 8 // 7
  • Robinson’s tgts: 4 // 7 // 5 // 3 // 6 // 4 // 11
  • Robinson has just one game above 10 DK pts & that was only 10.4 pts
  • In his Week 1 11 tgt game, had just 35 yds on 6 rec
  • His season high rec yards is just 63 & he only has one TD on the season
  • SF D allows a middle of the pack, 37.3 DK pts/g to WRs

CHI TEs: 

  • Cole Kmet is third on the team in tgts with 30
  • Tgts by game: 6 // 5 // 4 // 3 // 4 // 1 // 7
  • He has zero TDs resulting in zero games above 10 DK pts
  • He started the season at $3.8k and has fell all the way to $2.7k four weeks ago
  • This week he’s $3.1k facing SF who allows the seventh least DK pts to TEs ($8.7k)