Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
27.25) at

Jets (
15.75)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
13th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
13th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
24th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
26th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
26th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
20th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
31st DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
15th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Jets projected QB is a 5th round rookie who has barely stuck in the NFL
  • Michael Carter is underpriced for his role
  • The biggest obstacle to the Bengals success is game flow
  • Joe Mixon has been in a timeshare the past two weeks

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The 5-2 Bengals are riding high, coming off a 41-17 thrashing of division rival Baltimore. It’s been a long time since the Bengals were atop the AFC North, but atop is currently where this better-than-expected Bengals squad sits. The Bengals appear legitimately good, having won confidently against the Steelers/Ravens/Lions, and having gone 2-2 in close games against the Vikings/Bears/Jags/Packers. It feels as amazing to write this as it probably does to read, but the Bengals are just two three-point losses away from being undefeated. 

Zac Taylor deserves a lot of credit for his approach on offense. The Bengals play consistently slow (32nd in situational neutral pace/31st in pace when trailing/25th in pace when winning) but are running a lot of efficient plays. Joe Burrow was limited to 30/18/32/32 pass attempts through the first four weeks before seeing 38/29/38 attempts the past three games, with the 29 attempts coming against the Lions in a game the Bengals controlled throughout. It looks like the Bengals coaching staff is gaining trust in Burrow as he gains confidence coming back from a significant injury. The Jets are attackable on the ground (27th in DVOA) and through the air (28th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance against a defense that is nothing but least resistance, expect the Bengals to play similarly to how they did against the Lions in Week 6. In that game, the Bengals allowed Burrow to throw enough to build an early lead, before coasting to an easy victory up 20-0 to start the fourth quarter. The real surprise of this Bengals team has been the defense, and this profiles as a game where they can let their defense control the game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets franchise QB Zach Wilson is expected to miss a few weeks with a sprained PCL, and that is very good news for the Jets chances to win games. Zach “frightened child” Wilson looks like he can’t hack it at the NFL level. You hate to say that about a top pick after only seven games, but those seven games have revealed a lot about where Wilson is in terms of developing as a professional QB. When rookie QBs are going to be good, it’s common to see them make mistakes alongside big plays during their first year as they adjust to the speed of the NFL game. Peyton Manning’s 26 TD, 28 INT, 56.7% completion percentage rookie campaign is an excellent example. 28 INTS would be the most Manning ever thew, and 56.7% would be the lowest completion percentage of his career. While it took Manning a year to fully adjust to the NFL, it was clear in his rookie year that big plays were going to happen with him under center. When a rookie QB isn’t going to be good, he looks like Zach Wilson.

The Jets recently traded for Joe Flacco, but it’s hard to think the Jets will start a QB they traded for mid-week. Flacco does have a familiarity with this offense already from last year, and it shouldn’t take much time getting caught up for him to be ready. Since Flacco was just added, it makes sense to approach this game as if Mike White will be calling the signals for New York, but it wouldn’t but totally shocking for news to break later in the week that Flacco is going to start. The Jets draw an upstart Bengals defense that is stuffing the run (5th in DVOA) and limiting passing (8th in DOVA). The Jets are likely to struggle to move the ball. The Jets play slow (25th in situational neutral place) unless they are ahead (2nd in pace when leading), but there is no reason to think the Jets will be winning. With no clear path of least resistance, and White currently projected under center, expect the Jets to try and remain balanced, hoping something breaks their way early to keep them in the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bengals will be a popular eliminator league selection this week, having been installed as large 10-point road favorites. While 10 points is nothing to sneeze at in an NFL game, it still feels low. The Jets just lost their “franchise QB” and are going to be starting a guy most people will have to Google. Mike White was a 2018 fifth-round pick that was cut by the Cowboys and spent most of 2019/2020 bouncing around the Jets practice squad . . . says Google. The most likely game flow feels highly likely in what is expected to be a lopsided affair. The Bengals should take an early lead in whichever manner they see fit, before pumping the breaks and coasting to an easy victory in the fourth quarter. 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Cincy leads the AFC North after a 41-17 dismantling of Baltimore
  • CIN’s team totals: 27 // 17 // 24 // 24 // 22 // 34 // 41
  • NYJ’s lone win came in an overtime game against the Titans in Week 4
  • Outside of that 27 point outing, here are the team totals for NYJ: 14 // 6 // 0 // 20 // 13
  • The 43 Vegas total, as of Tuesday evening, is tied for third lowest
  • The spread opened at CIN -8.5 and has since moved two full points to -10.5

Joe Burrow

  • Burrow ranks eighth in PFF passing grade
  • The Bengals rank 10th in adjusted pass rate, per numberFire
  • DK log: 18.64 // 13.28 // 18.58 // 25.32 // 20.34 // 23.84 // 30.64
  • NYJ ranks eighth against QBs (18.5)

CIN Passing Attack

  • CIN uses 11 personnel at a 69% rate and 12 personnel at 20%
  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 85.6% // CJ Uzomah 76.6% // Tyler Boyd 73.5% // Tee Higgins 53.6%
  • Target share: Chase 23.9% // Boyd 21.1% // Higgins 20.2% // Uzomah 8.9%
  • Chase’s 754 receiving yards are first all time among rookie WRs through seven games
  • He ranks second in rec yards, eighth in air yards, 14th in target share, third in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • His 22.2 DK ppg rank fifth
  • Chase’s DK log: 23.9 // 13.4 // 22.5 // 13.7 // 30.9 // 13.7 // 37.1
  • His salary cost started the year at $4,800 and has now risen to $7,500
  • Boyd’s salary reached a high of $5,400 in Week 6 but has now dropped to $4,800
  • His 6.1 ADoT ranks seventh lowest among qualifying WRs
  • His DK log: 6.2 // 14.3 // 13.6 // 23.8 // 6.4 // 1.7 // 7.9
  • Higgins ranks 12th in target share and 17th in WOPR
  • His 9.9 ADoT is tied for 35th lowest
  • DK log: 15.8 // 17 // 10.2 // 7.4 // 13.2
  • NYJ ranks second against WRs in DK ppg allowed (29.6)
  • Uzomah’s DK log: 5.5 // 2.4 // 26.5 // 3.6 // 10.5 // 24.1
  • NYJ ranks 25th against TEs (17.1)

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon leads the team with a 63.3% snap share, 7.5% target share, and 19.4 touches per game
  • Mixon averaged 4.3 targets last season
  • That’s down to 2.3 this year
  • DK log: 28 // 8.1 // 10.4 // 13.7 // 10.5 // 26.3 // 11.9
  • NYJ allows the most DK ppg to the RB position (39.7)

Mike White

  • With Zach Wilson hurt, NYJ brought back Joe Flacco
  • But they’re rolling with Mike White in Week 8, who is evidently an NFL QB
  • White received a 45.3 PFF passing grade in his appearance against New England
  • He has a $5,000 salary in Week 8
  • No NYJ QB has hit 20 DK pts this season
  • They only managed three 20+ performances last season, and none that were 24+
  • CIN ranks 10th against QBs (18.9)

NYJ Passing Attack

  • NYJ uses 11 personnel at 61% and 12 personnel at 27%
  • Snap share: Corey Davis 81.3% // Ryan Griffin 65.5% // Elijah Moore 53.2% // Tyler Kroft 44.7% // Braxton Berrios 38.2% // Keelan Cole 36.4% // Jamison Crowder 33.2%
  • Target share: Davis 19.7% // Moore 12.2% // Berrios 10.8% // Crowder 9.9% // Griffin 8% // Cole 5.2%
  • Davis ranks 15th in air yards and 23rd in air yard market share
  • DK log: 26.7 // 2.8 // 9.1 // 24.1 // 8.5 // 14.7
  • Crowder’s DK log: 19.1 // 8.4 // 7.4
  • No other NYJ WRs have posted a 15+ DK pt score this season
  • CIN ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (38.3)
  • No NYJ TE has scored 6+ pts this season
  • CIN ranks 9th against TEs (9.2)

NYJ RBs

  • Michael Carter has led the RBs in snaps and targets since Week 4
  • His touch count vs. the next highest RB on the team since then: 14-5 // 13-6 // 19-11
  • Carter ranks 19th in RBOPR, per Koalaty Stats
  • DK log: 3 // 10.8 // 4.9 // 10.4 // 14.8 // 17.4
  • CIN ranks 18th against RBs (25.3)