Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 4:25pm Eastern

WFT (
20) at

Broncos (
24)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
31st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
17th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
20th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
9th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
8th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
27th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
14th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game could produce more points than the total is predicting
  • The game flow will be dictated by how aggressive the Broncos want to play
  • Both backfields are timeshares
  • Teddy Bridgewater offers plenty of “cheap QB” appeal

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The 2-5 Football Team is coming into Week 8 with quickly fading hopes for their season. Ron Rivera is one of the more aggressive head coaches in the league but it’s hard to win games in the NFL with a replacement-level QB. The WFT is fresh off losses to the Packers/Chiefs/Saints, none of which were competitive contests. Regardless of their roster’s shortcomings, this coaching staff will “try to win” and has thrown the ball nearly 40 times a game during those three losses. The Football Team pushes the pace (6th situational neutral), and throw a lot doing so, but they just don’t have the talent to be an above-average team.

This week they draw a disappointing Broncos defense that has been attackable on the ground (26th in DVOA) and through the air (24th in DOVA). With no clear path of least resistance to tilt the game plan heavily away from their usual strategy, expect the Football Team to come out playing fast and aggressively, with the hopes that something will click. Rivera knows that his defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone and that his offense will need to score points if his team is going to be in games. 

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 3-4 Broncos come into this game riding a four-game losing streak against the Ravens/Steelers/Raiders/Browns. In a division that includes the Chiefs and Chargers, this Broncos team already has to be in must-win mode. The Broncos prefer to play slow (29th in situational neutral pace) which teams typically do when they want to “hide their QB” and allow their defenses to win games. This Broncos team profiled that way to begin the year, but their defense has been disappointing, and Teddy Bridgewater has been what he’s always been, good enough. The Broncos would be wise to give Bridgewater a little more leeway to run a quicker, more aggressive offense, designed to score the points that it requires to win with a vulnerable defense. There is no indication that the Broncos plan to change their game plan, which means we can expect a slow-paced, balanced offense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 43-point total, mostly because of the way the Broncos play. The Football Team is a team that is likely to produce shootouts (or at least good DFS scores). That’s because they have a defense that can’t stop anyone through the air (29th in DVOA) while being strong against the run (8th in DVOA), creating one of the clearest pass funnels in the league. The Washington Football Team is also a fast-paced, aggressive offense, that will keep trying to fight back. When the WFT faces a team with an offense that we can project to throw successfully against them, it’s easy to target players in that game. Unfortunately, the Broncos are not a team we (or Vegas) can expect to do anything other than suck the life out of this game. The most likely game flow is both teams struggle to move the ball, creating a close, low-scoring contest. 


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Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • 8th highest total (44) w/ DEN favored by 3
  • WAS D allows the most pts/g in the league (30.0)
  • They’ve allowed 20+ in every game: GB-24 // KC-31 // NO-33 // ATL-30 // BUF-43 // NYG-29 // LAC-20
  • DEN D allows the 4th least ptg/g (18.1) despite losing four straight: CLE-17 // LV-34 // PT-27 // BAL-23 // NYJ-0 // JAC-13 // NYG-13
  • Points/g: WAS-20.9 (22nd) // DEN-20.0 (24th)

Tyler Heinicke:

  • Heinicke has shown he can pay off his salary w/ four of six full games above 20 DK pts: GB-22.22 (4.27x) // ATL-27.90 (4.72x) // BUF-23.38 (4.18x) // NYG-24.04 (4.29x)
  • His salary is down to $5.3k from a season high of $5.9k
  • Pass attempts: 37 // 39 // 41 // 33 // 24 // 46 // 15
  • DEN allows the 7th least pass attempts/g (32.4) & allow just 16.1 DK pts/g to QBs (3rd lowest) but rank 24th in DVOA against the pass
  • They also allow the lowest completion % in the league (57.71%)

WAS RBs:

  • WAS ranks 13th in rush yds/g
  • DEN allows the eighth least rush yds/g (99.3)
  • Antonio Gibson has yet to crack 100 rush yds
  • His price is down to $5.7k from a season high of $6.5k from two weeks ago
  • Gibson atts: 14 // 10 // 20 // 14 // 12 // 13 // 20
  • He hasn’t see over 3 tgts since week one in which he saw five
  • JD McKissic rush atts: 4 // 8 // 2 // 7 // 3 //4 // 1
  • McKissic tgts: 6 // 10 // 4 // 5 // 2 // 6 // 1 
  • He ranks second on the team in tgts (14% share)
  • His price matches his season high ($5.2k)
  • DEN allows the ninth least DK pts to RBs (21.3)

Terry McLaurin:

  • McLaurin is priced as the 4th highest WR this week ($7.6k)
  • This is his highest price of the season 
  • He has three games above 100 rec yds & four double digit tgt games
  • Tgts: 12 // 8 // 11 // 13 // 7 // 14 // 4
  • This is a 28.6% tgt share, sixth highest in the league
  • He ranks 3rd in the NFL in ADOT (12.9 yds) only trailing Courtland Sutton (16.34) & Marquise Brown (15.93)
  • DEN allows the ninth least DK pts to WRs (35.3)

Ricky Seals-Jones:

  • RSJ has played all but six snaps since Logan Thomas got injured
  • Tgts last three: 6 // 4 // 5 
  • His price three weeks ago was bare min ($2.5k)
  • He’s now up to a season high of $3.8k
  • DEN allows the third least DK pts to TEs (8.2)
  • They held Darren Waller to 5:59:0 TDs & Mark Andrews to 5:67:0 TDs

Teddy Bridgewater:

  • Bridgewater’s price is down to $5.4k from a season high of $5.8k
  • In three of seven games, he’s cracked 20 DK pts: 14.8 // 25.3 // 19.6 // 6.8 // 11.8 // 24.2 // 20.5
  • Pass Atts: 33 // 49 // 38 // 16 // 25 // 34 // 36
  • Bridgewater ranks 7th in air yds & eighth in aDOT (8.92)
  • WAS allows the most pass yds/g (300.6), the 7th highest yds/comp (7.6), and allows the most DK pts to QBs (28.8)

DEN RBs:

  • WAS allows a middling 23.3 DK pts/g to RBs
  • DEN rush atts: Melvin Gordon-8, 10, 9, 9, 18, 13, 11 // Javonte Williams-4 // 11 // 8 // 7 // 12 // 13 // 14
  • Tgts: Gordon-3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 2, 3 // Williams-7, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 1
  • Williams has at least 3 rec in the last 5 games
  • Both these RBs have stayed in the $5k range all season
  • Williams is now at a season high $5.3k but has yet to break 20 DK pts
  • Gordon hasn’t broke 20 DK pts since Week 1 @ NYG (23.8)

DEN WRs:

  • Jerry Jeudy is expected to return this week after getting injured Week 1
  • Jeudy saw 7 tgts Week 1 going 6:72 yds (Fant-8 tgts // Hamler (IR)-4 // Patrick-4 // Sutton-3)
  • Jeudy had a Week 1 price of $4.8k & is just $4.9k this week
  • Courtland Sutton leads the league in Air Yards (948) & sixth aDot (16.34) (min 15 tgts)
  • Sutton’s price has risen from a Week 1 price of $5.2k to $6.4k (season high) this week (he was also $6.4k last Week)
  • He has three games of 10+ tgts: 5 // 14 // 11 // 8 // 5 // 12 // 3
  • WAS allows the second most DK pts to WR (46.7), 24th highest yds/comp (11.4), & third most comp/g (26.4)

Noah Fant:

  • Tgts: 7 // 11 // 4 // 10 // 3 // 6 // 8
  • WAS allows 14.8 DK pts to TEs (14th most)
  • Fant has yet to break 100 rec yds but does have games of 97 & 62 w/ three TDs
  • DK pts: 8.9 // 24.7 // 5.0 // 16.6 // 3.5 // 13.3 // 12.2
  • His salary has been in the $4.8-$5.0k range the last three weeks ($4.9k this week)
  • This makes him the fourth most expensive TE on the slate (Pitts, Hockenson, Gesicki are higher)