Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
25.5) at

Lions (
22.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
16th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
28th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
29th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
15th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>
  • Both teams are struggling this season, with the Lions actually appearing to be playing better and having less dysfunction than the Eagles at the moment in spite of their 0-7 record.
  • Both teams are throwing at an above-average rate, despite questionable quarterback play.
  • Despite their offensive struggles, the Eagles have scored over 20 points in six of seven games this season.
  • The Lions have not scored 20+ points since their season opener against the 49ers, a game in which they scored 23 second-half points.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles started out on fire against the Raiders in Week 7 as they marched down the field for a touchdown on an 8 play, 67 yard drive. As explored heading into last week, the Eagles had a need to get their ground game going and were able to do just that with Miles Sanders racking up five carries for 25 yards on that opening drive. Unfortunately, Sanders was injured early on the following drive and missed the rest of the game. From that point forward, the Eagles only ran the ball with their running backs 12 times while Hurts attempted 28 passes. Granted, the Eagles trailed for most of the game but a 70% pass rate is certainly not the recipe for success right now for this team.

Miles Sanders is almost certain to miss this game, leaving the backfield to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. The Eagles had a couple of poor drives after Sanders went out last week and the Raiders scored on both sides of the halftime break — in the blink of an eye, the Eagles were down 24-7 and forced to be very aggressive trying to come back. It will be interesting to see how the Eagles approach this game with a full week to prepare for Sanders’ absence and facing a weak opponent. Both Scott and Gainwell profile more as “scat backs” than they do as between the tackles grinders but should be able to work in tandem to attack Detroit’s bottom-tier run defense behind PFF’s #4 graded run-blocking offensive line. The Eagles will likely take some downfield shots to their speedy wide receivers as well, who have consistently been targeted deep but have not connected recently. A date with Detroit’s 27th DVOA pass defense could be just what the doctor ordered to unlock that downfield explosiveness.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit knows who they are — a talent deficient team that needs many things to break their way to have a chance — and has done a great job keeping games competitive despite their inadequacies. Despite their reputation as a doormat, the Lions have been pesky all season. Only the Bengals and Packers, two teams who lead their divisions, have beaten the Lions by more than 10 points. Their method of “how they try to win” is turning the game into a slugfest and bringing their opponents down to their level. Against the Eagles, Detroit has a strong chance of being able to do just that.

Philadelphia’s run defense is notably poor — ranking 29th in both run defense DVOA and PFF’s run-defense grades. This should allow the Lions to sustain drives and move the ball while putting up some points early, even if they are unable to get in the end zone. The ability of the Lions to put up early points also makes it likely that they will be able to keep their game plan intact deep into the game and make this a 4th quarter game where it will be a game of “chicken” between Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff of which QB makes a big mistake first. The Lions offense flows primarily through D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Jamaal Williams with some calculated short to intermediate passing to their low-talent receiving corps. We should expect a similar approach and distribution of touches here as the Lions will hope to score 2-3 touchdowns and grind out a home win.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game is an interesting matchup of one team which has superior talent but is struggling to find an identity against a team that is lacking in personnel but has been getting the most out of what they have to work with. As noted in the Game Overview section, the Eagles have scored 20+ points in all but one game this year. However, that stat is slightly misleading as they have reached that 20 point threshold with some meaningless late-game TDs on multiple occasions. On the other side, Detroit has only scored 20+ points one time this season and Philadelphia’s defense has been very good against below-average competition this year. 

Both teams are unlikely to have explosive games through the air, as Philadelphia’s passing game has been a complete mess while the Eagles pass defense presents a tough matchup for Detroit. Both teams have a greater chance for success on the ground as the Eagles rank 8th in rushing offense DVOA and 29th in rushing defense DVOA. What this sets up is a game where both teams are unlikely to be efficient if they take a pass-heavy approach while the game clock will move quickly, limit possessions, and slow the game down if these teams take the “path of least resistance” by running at a high rate. In any scenario, the lack of explosiveness on the Lions side and lack of efficiency for the Eagles passing game limits the chances of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Philly’s implied total of 25.25 ranks eighth on the main slate
  • Game totals for PHI have finished at 50+ pts in 4 of 7 games
  • PHI ranks second in numberFire’s adjusted pass rate
  • DET ranks 30th in adjusted pass rate
  • DET is the last remaining winless team
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in DET games
  • DET hasn’t scored 20 pts since Week 1

Jalen Hurts

  • Hurts ranks 20th in PFF passing grade
  • He’s 22nd in YPA, 16th in passing yards, and 15th in ADoT
  • His 26 DK ppg rank fourth
  • He’s the only QB to score 20+ pts in each game
  • DK log: 28.76 // 21.8 // 25.54 // 31.18 // 23.92 // 26 // 24.54
  • DET ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs (21.5)

PHI Passing Attack

  • PHI ranks third in 11 personnel usage (71%)
  • Snap share: DeVonta Smith 91.1% // Jalen Reagor 75.7% // Quez Watkins 64.4% // Dallas Goedert 64.1%
  • Target share: DeVonta 21.8% // Reagor 12.3% // Watkins 10.7% // Goedert 9.9%
  • DeVonta ranks 11th in air yards, 24th in air yard market share, and 24th in WOPR
  • DK log: 19.1 // 3.6 // 5.8 // 22.2 // 15.7 // 5.1 // 11.1
  • DeVonta and Watkins both rank in the Top 20 in ADoT
  • DET has allowed the second most 20+ yd passes and 40+ yd passes
  • Reagor has only scored 15+ DK pts once in his career (16.9 @ ATL in Week 1)
  • Watkins has only scored 15+ DK pts once in his career (16.7 vs. SF in Week 2)
  • DET ranks 21st against WRs (40.4)
  • Goedert had his highest snap count after Zach Ertz was traded (64)
  • His targets rose by two, hitting five targets for the third time this season
  • He caught three of five for 70 yds
  • DK log: 14.2 // 4.4 // 8.6 // 16.6 // 4.8 // 12
  • DET ranks 13th against TEs (10.4)

PHI RBs

  • With Miles Sanders going down, Kenneth Gainwell led Boston Scott in snaps 35-23, targets 8-7, and touches 9-8
  • Gainwell has 3 TDs on the season to Scott’s 1 (Sanders had 0), and 9 red zone touches to Scott’s 3
  • Gainwell’s DK log: 12.3 // 7.2 // 6.4 // 20.9 // 3.4 // 1.1 // 15.1
  • DET ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (30.5)

Jared Goff

  • Goff ranks 26th in PFF passing grade
  • His 6.5 YPA ranks 29th
  • Goff has the lowest ADoT in the league among qualifying QBs (6.6)
  • DK log: 32.92 // 20.44 // 9.08 // 18.76 // 8.12 // 9.18 // 13.02
  • PHI ranks 11th against QBs (18.9)

DET Passing Attack

  • DET uses 11 personnel at a 69% rate, 12 personnel at 14%, and 21 personnel at 10%
  • Snap share: TJ Hockenson 83.6% // Kalif Raymond 75.2% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 64.2% // Geronimo Allison 34.1%
  • Target share: Hockenson 18.8% // Raymond 14.1% // Amon 12% (0 targets in Week 7)
  • Among currently active WRs, only Raymond has exceeded 15 DK pts this season
  • He’s done it twice, 19.6 @ CHI & 20.6 @ LAR
  • PHI ranks fifth against WRs (32.6)
  • Hockenson ranks sixth in air yards, fifth in target share, sixth in air yard market share, and sixth in WOPR among all TEs
  • His 12.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • DK log: 25.7 // 20.6 // 3 // 8.2 // 4.2 // 15.4 // 10.8
  • PHI ranks 22nd against TEs (16.1)

DET RBs

  • Snap share: D’Andre Swift 69.8% // Jamaal Williams 34.6%
  • Swift’s target counts: 11 // 5 // 7 // 6 // 6 // 7 // 10
  • Jamaal’s target counts: 9 // 3 // 2 // 0 // 2 // 2 // 0
  • Swift’s touch counts: 19 // 12 // 21 // 12 // 17 // 18 // 21
  • Jamaal’s touch counts: 17 // 10 // 14 // 14 // 15 // 5 // 12
  • Swift leads Jamaal 22-15 in red zone touches
  • Jamaal’s DK log: 25 // 6.7 // 14.7 // 6.6 // 8.5 // 1.9 // 5.7
  • Swift ranks first in total targets among RBs with 52
  • Per Koalaty Stats, his RBOPR ranks fourth
  • Swift’s DK log: 24.4 // 11.8 // 23.7 // 8.9 // 22.4 // 17.7 // 28.4
  • PHI ranks 30th against RBs (31.4)