Game Overview ::
By MJOhnson86 >>
- Seattle is a completely different team without Russell Wilson.
- Jacksonville is coming off their first win of the season, which came on a last-second field goal in London against the Dolphins.
- This is a unique situation with one team (Jacksonville) coming off their bye and the other (Seattle) playing on a short week after losing to the Saints on Monday Night Football.
- This game likely has a narrow range of outcomes from a scoring standpoint, as both defenses are poor enough that each team should score some points but neither offense is explosive enough to have much expectation for either team to score 30+ points.
How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville has changed routes over the course of the season, as injuries have condensed the workloads of their skill players and they have become much more balanced on offense while handing James Robinson the clear feature back role he enjoyed last season. The Jaguars have the 2nd ranked DVOA rushing offense (shocking for a 1-5 team) and will look to pound the rock in this spot. Seattle’s defense has played well since losing Russell Wilson and has given them chances at the end of games. We should expect that the Jaguars will lean on their running game here and they will likely try to “keep it close” and not make mistakes until late in the game if a change in approach is needed.
The Jaguars passing game has become more efficient as they have established their strong running game over the past several weeks. While I don’t necessarily expect them to be overly aggressive in this spot, Trevor Lawrence was one of the highest touted QB prospects we have ever seen coming out and is coming off his first win. Rookie QBs often take some time to settle into the NFL and we could see him start to become the QB we expected as he comes out of the bye week. It would not be shocking to see Lawrence and the passing game have success moving the ball this week. Jacksonville should have moderate success moving the ball and sustaining drives, while it may be tough for them to punch those drives in for TDs against a feisty Seahawks defense.
How Seattle Will Try To Win ::
Seattle has turned into a shell of themselves since Russel Wilson’s injury, scoring only 47 total points in the last three games. Prior to that, the Seahawks were averaging a robust 26.75 points per game despite facing a solid schedule. With their Week 7 game against the Saints being played in significant rain, they only threw the ball 22 times, and, outside of a bomb to DK Metcalf in the first quarter, only had 83 passing yards the rest of the game.
We should expect slightly more passing from the Seahawks this week as they face the Jaguars dead last pass defense (32nd in DVOA). That being said, Geno Smith has not impressed over the last three weeks and it is unlikely that the highly competitive Pete Carroll truly puts the game in Geno’s hands here as the Seahawks season is hanging on by a thread as they sit at 2-5 through seven weeks. The Seahawks have a bye in Week 9 and Russell Wilson is eligible to return from IR against the Packers in Week 10, so a win here would be critical for their chances of staying alive and regrouping for the stretch run. The “big picture” is critical here as the Seahawks truly have to approach this with a “One Week Season” mentality and will be taking this game much more seriously than they likely expected to need to when they first saw the schedule. Seattle will try to “establish the run” here, with their low volume passing focused on their primary pass-catchers as well as some short-area work for their ancillary pieces. Without Russell Wilson to make elite throws and create offense when things break down, Seattle will need to rely on their scheme to open things up for Geno Smith.
Likeliest Game flow ::
This sets up as a slow-paced game as the Jags and Seahawks rank 22nd and 25th, respectively, in situation-neutral pass rate over the last three weeks. The Jaguars were playing at a relatively fast pace the first three weeks and also throwing at a high rate, but have pumped the brakes significantly over the last few weeks. Both offenses are likely to move the ball with decent success this week. However, there is a very real chance that this turns into a field goal contest as the Seahawks have been solid at “bend but don’t break” defense and without a strong running game or a high degree of trust in Geno Smith, the Seahawks may also struggle in the red zone. Lack of red zone success and play calling that keeps the clock running on both sides of the ball is not a recipe for a very exciting game flow, although we have seen crazier things.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- SEA game totals with Russ: 44 // 63 // 47 // 49 // 43
- SEA game totals with Geno: 43 // 23
- JAC game totals: 58 // 36 // 50 // 45 // 56 // 43
- Geno’s three non-Jets starts: 2017 (212:1:0, 3:13) // 2021 (209:1), (167:1, 3:12)
- QB yds:TDs vs JAC: 291:2 // 328:2 // 316:0:1 // 348:2 // 197:1 // 329:2:1
- JAC ranks 32nd in def pass DVOA and has given up the 2nd highest yds/att
- Geno has thrown 32 & 22 times in his two SEA starts
- Targets with Geno: Lockett (14) // Metcalf (15) // Swain (10)
- Metcalf yds: 60:1 // 53 // 107:1 // 65:1 // 98:2 // 58 // 96:1
- Metcalf had 60+ yds in 11/17 games last season
- WRs over 60 yds vs JAC: Cooks (132) // Sutton (159) // Green (112), Kirk (104) // Boyd (118), Chase (77) // Waddle (70:2), Hollins (61)
- JAC has allowed the 2nd highest success rate & yds/att to WRs
- Lockett has just 4:47 in the two Geno starts
- Lockett’s high is just 57 yds since his explosion in W1 & W2
- Last three aforementioned Geno Smith starts::
- Engram (7:99:1, 8tg) // Shepard (3:56, 6tg) // King (4:23, 9tg)
- Metcalf (6:58) // Everett (2:40) // Lockett (2:35) // Dissly (2:8:1)
- Metcalf (2:96:1) // Swain (4:39) // Lockett (2:12) // Everett (3:11)
- Top SEA RB rush att in 2021: Carson (16, 13, 12, 13) // Collins (15, 20, 16)
- Top SEA RB total yds in 2021: Carson (117, 31, 82) // Collins (78, 72, 98, 44)
- RBs with 10+ rush att vs JAC: Ingram (85:1) // Williams (64), Gordon (31) // Conner (43:2), Conner (26) // Mixon (67:1) // Henry (130:3)
- JAC ranks 20th in def rush DVOA
- QB pass yds vs SEA: 251 // 347 // 323 // 322 // 365 // 229 // 222
- SEA has allowed 11 pass TDs to 2 INT
- Lawrence has 7 pass TDs to 8 INT (+2 rush TDs)
- Lawrence has just 1 INT in the last three games, as well as both his rush TDs
- SEA has allowed the 6th most WR rec yds, with four 100-yd WRs (+ AK’s 128 rec yds)
- Notable WRs vs SEA: Pascal (4:43:2) // Julio (6:128) // Jefferson (9:118:1), Thielen (6:50:1) // Deebo (8:156:2) // Woods (12:150), Kupp (7:92) // Diontae (9:71)
- SEA has allowed the 4th most completed air yds
- Targets: MJJ (9, 11, 8, 3, 6, 10) // Viska (9, 7, 4, 7, 3, 10)
- Production w/o Chark: MJJ (3:24 // 1:25 // 7:100:1) // Viska (6:99 // 1:58 // 6:54)
- TEs vs SEA: Doyle (3:21) // Pruitt (3:43) // Conklin (7:70:1) // Kittle (4:40, Dwelley TD) // Freiermuth (7:58) // Trautman (3:36)
- Arnold with JAC: 2:29 // 6:64 // 2:27
- Robinson total touches: 11 // 14 // 21 // 20 // 19 // 21
- RBs vs SEA in 2021 (total yds): Taylor (116), Hines (82) // Henry (237) // Mattison (171) // Sermon (89) // Henderson (99) // Najee (127) // AK (179)
- Robinson total yds: 54 // 64 // 134 // 76 // 147 // 101
- SEA has allowed 7 RB TDs
- Robinson has scored 5 TDs
- SEA has allowed the highest success rate & yds/att on RB tg in 2021
- 474 road dog RBs since 2014 averaging 15+ rush att have scored 0.66 pts above salary-based expectation (15.35 pts/g on avg) with 46% consistency and an average of 8.6% ownership in large tournaments
- When the spread is within 5 pts, the sample is cut to 236 RBs, but the pts above salary-based expectation jumps to 1.55 (16.76 pts/g on avg), consistency jumps to 50.8%, and ownership rises to 9.6% on avg