Kickoff Sunday, Oct 31st 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
16.75) at

Bills (
31.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
7th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
32nd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
31st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
4th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
2nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
12th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
4th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>
  • This is the second matchup of the year for these two teams, although Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa left early in the first meeting — a 35-0 drubbing by the Bills.
  • Ingredients are here for an uptempo and high-volume affair as Miami throws at the highest rate in the NFL while the Bills play at one of the fastest paces in the league.
  • The Dolphins have significantly underperformed expectations this year and could be on the brink of major changes if this game gets out of hand.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Bills defense has been incredible this season. Outside of being unable to find an answer for the alien that is Derrick Henry, they have given up over 20 offensive points in only one game this year and that was in garbage time against Washington in Week 3. The Chiefs and the Titans are the only teams to have over 300 yards of total offense against the Bills this season. For reference, only four NFL teams average under 300 yards of offense per game and the Dolphins are the fifth least productive offense at 307.6 yards per game. To say that this will be tough sledding is an understatement.

Miami continues to throw at the highest situation-neutral rate in the league as they are unable to move the ball on the ground behind a porous offensive line. That line ranks 25th in the NFL in run blocking grade by PFF and dead last in pass blocking. Miami is unlikely to see their line’s play significantly improve against Buffalo’s #1 ranked defense by DVOA. Last week against Atlanta, the Falcons had defenders in the backfield on nearly every play whether it was a run or pass. For comparison’s sake, Atlanta is the 30th ranked DVOA defense. Miami will likely have little choice but to continue throwing the ball at a high rate and will need to get the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly if they want to keep him upright. The Dolphins inability to contain the Bills pass rush in Week 2 is what resulted in his injury that cost him several weeks and the possibility that he takes a similar pounding here is very real. The Dolphins do have some playmakers among their skill players, but this Bills defense was built specifically with the Chiefs in mind and their scheme and personnel are tailored to neuter pass-heavy offenses.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo’s offense is built around their passing game and with the loss of tight end Dawson Knox (who was in the midst of a breakout season), they will likely lean into even more four wide receiver personnel that should keep that pass rate high. The Bills passing game has actually been slightly down by their standards this season, but their best performances have been against bottom-tier pass defenses of the Chiefs, Titans, and Washington. The Dolphins present a similar matchup as they enter this game ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed. 

The Bills start a stretch of games here against incredibly weak opponents with their next three games being against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets — teams with a combined record of 3-16. The Bills will want to make quick work of these opponents and play clean games that allow them to give their stars rest late in blowouts, rest that will be very valuable in a 17 game season. Buffalo will try exploiting matchups all over the field by spreading the Dolphins out and peppering their elite separators at the wide receiver position against Miami’s man-heavy coverage. Miami’s run defense has actually been better than perceived as they have the 9th graded run defense by PFF and the Bills preference is to pass anyways. The loss of Dawson Knox will hurt the Bills running game efficiency while also promoting more spread sets. The Bills are an analytics-based team and have shown the willingness to abandon the run completely early in games if they feel they can throw the ball all over the yard effectively — something they have a good chance of doing here. The Bills have scored 40+ points in both of their home games since Week 1 after being shut down at home by the Steelers.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We should expect an aggressive mindset from the Bills early in this game as they come off their bye following a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Titans in Week 6. The Dolphins played in London in Week 6 and did not have a bye the following week, something that is very rare. While the Dolphins were able to fight to the end at home against a mediocre (at best) Falcons team, a road date with the juggernaut Bills presents a big challenge and potential meltdown as the physical toll of the travel and time change finally catches up to them. 

The likeliest game flow here has the Bills taking it to the Dolphins early through the air and the Dolphins also throwing at a high rate, though they will likely have very limited success. As the game moves on, the Bills are likely to move more toward the run game as their lead grows and they try to “survive and advance” with a comfortable, injury-free win. The matchup on paper of a fast-paced, high powered offense against a pass-happy bottom-feeder sets up for an extremely high play volume game while there is also the risk of this game disappointing if Buffalo is able to pump the brakes early and Miami is unable to sustain any offensive drives — a scenario that we saw play out the first time these teams played in Week 2 in Miami.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • MIA is 2-5 ATS
  • BUF is 5-2 ATS
  • BUF has scored 30+ pts for five straight weeks
  • MIA has yet to score 30 pts this season
  • Week 7’s 28 pt performance was the second time MIA scored 25+ on the season (28 pts Week 3 @ LV in an overtime game)
  • BUF’s 31.5 implied team total is highest on the week
  • The -13.5 spread is the second highest

Tua Tagovailoa

  • MIA has the third most passing attempts on the season but they rank 16th in Pass TDs
  • Tua ranks 16th in PFF passing grade
  • Tua’s DK log in three full games: 17.18 // 25.36 // 28.54
  • BUF ranks first in DK ppg allowed to QBs (13)
  • Opposing QBs DK log: Ben Roethlisberger 12.02 // Jacoby Brissett 6.56 // Taylor Heinicke 23.38 // Davis Mills -0.32 // Patrick Mahomes 21.98 // Ryan Tannehill 13.94

MIA Passing Attack

  • MIA leads the league in 12 personnel rate at 51% (league avg. 22%)
  • Fantasy relevant snap shares: Jaylen Waddle 81.1% // Mike Gesicki 67.4% // DeVante Parker 45.9% (absent the last three weeks) // Mack Hollins 37% // Will Fuller 31.1% (absent the last three weeks) // Preston Williams 20%
  • With Williams active in Week 7, the snap count for Hollins nearly halved (from 68 to 39)
  • Target share: Waddle 20.9% // Gesicki 18.1% // Parker 11.6% (healthy target counts of 7-9 in Weeks 1-4) // Preston 4.3% (healthy counts of 3, 5, & 4) // Fuller 2.9% (6 in one healthy game)
  • Waddle’s DK salary did not change from last week ($5,600)
  • Waddle’s DK log with Tua: 16.1 // 29 // 15.3
  • Among WRs with at least 30 targets, Parker ranks 10th in air yard market share & 18th in WOPR
  • Parker’s DK log: 12.1 // 9.2 // 8.2 // 17.7
  • The other MIA WRs have combined for just one double-digit DK output: Mack Hollins 10.1 vs. JAX in London
  • BUF allows the fewest DK ppg to WRs (27.4)
  • Among all TEs, Gesicki ranks fourth in targets, third in receptions, fourth in receiving yards, third in air yards, seventh in target share, third in air yard market share, and seventh in WOPR
  • Among TEs with at least six games played, he ranks seventh in DK ppg
  • Gesicki’s DK log: 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7 // 8.3 // 22.5 // 21.5
  • BUF ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to TEs (9.1)

MIA RBs

  • Malcolm Brown has been placed on IR
  • In Week 7, Myles Gaskin out-snapped Salvon Ahmed, 46 to 22
  • Gaskin had four targets to Ahmed’s two
  • In total touches, Gaskin led 19 to 9
  • Gaskin’s healthy DK log: 12.6 // 8.6 // 10.4 // 31.9 // 3.4 // 17.7
  • In Week 17 @ BUF, Ahmed scored 13.8 and Gaskin scored 17.7 DK pts
  • Otherwise, all of Ahmed’s double-digit scores have come with Gaskin absent or limited
  • BUF ranks second against RBs (17.4)

Josh Allen

  • Josh Allen leads all QBs in DK ppg
  • Allen’s DK log: 18.2 // 17.66 // 40.22 // 21.02 // 39.5 // 32.72
  • In seven career games against MIA, Allen averages 29.39 DK pts
  • Allen is the second most expensive QB at $8,100
  • MIA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (22.9)
  • However, only one QB has scored 26+ against them
  • Tom Brady completed 30/41 passes for 411 yds and 5 TDs on the way to 40.74 pts

BUF Passing Attack

  • BUF utilizes 11 personnel at a 65% rate and 10 personnel, or 4 WRs, at an 11% rate (the second most frequent rate behind Arizona’s ridiculous 25%)
  • Snap share: Emmanuel Sanders 82.5% // Stefon Diggs 79.5% // Dawson Knox 77.7% // Cole Beasley 67.4% // Gabriel Davis 36.3%
  • Target share: Diggs 25.4% // Beasley 18.5% // Sanders 16.8% // Knox 11.6% // Davis 4.3%
  • Diggs ranks ninth in air yards, eighth in target share, and 12th in WOPR
  • His 16.4 DK ppg ranks 20th among WRs
  • Diggs’s DK log: 15.9 // 16 // 12.2 // 21.4 // 8.9 // 23.9
  • Sanders ranks 12th in air yards but averages just 15 DK ppg
  • Sanders’s DK log: 9.2 // 6.8 // 26.4 // 13.1 // 20.4 // 14.1
  • Beasley’s DK log: 14 // 7.6 // 20.8 // 3.6 // 1.5 // 21.8
  • Davis averaged 10.63 DK ppg last year
  • He’s hit double-digits just once this year, 12 vs. PIT
  • MIA ranks 28th against WRs (43.7)
  • Knox is out for at least three weeks
  • Prior to his injury, Knox ranked eighth in receiving yards among TEs
  • MIA ranks 29th against TEs (19)

BUF RBs

  • Zack Moss missed Week 1 and was limited in Week 2
  • Since then, he’s led Devin Singletary in snaps: 44-34 // 40-32 // 42-15 // 42-35
  • Target totals for Moss vs. Singletary in those same weeks: 3-2 // 1-1 // 4-2 // 4-5
  • Touch totals: 16-12 // 14-15 // 14-7 // 10-10
  • Moss leads Singletary in red zone touches 19-11 and in red zone TDs 3-0
  • MIA ranks 27th against RBs (29.5)