Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- The Rams continue an extremely soft stretch in their schedule as they visit a Texans team that has lost three of its last four games by 26 or more points.
- The Rams should be able to move the ball in any manner they choose against a Texans defense that is bottom of the league against both the run and pass.
- The Texans will have significant struggles moving the ball against a talented and aggressive Rams defense.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams snuck out a close victory against the winless Lions in Week 7, as the Lions were deep in Rams territory with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter before a Jared Goff interception and ensuing Rams drive put them away. The Lions pulled out all the stops in that game with a big play by emerging star D’Andre Swift early, a surprise onside kick, and multiple successful fake punts — it still wasn’t enough. This game sets up similarly on paper, as both the Lions and Texans are very poor statistically, which may lead some to believe the Rams are in for a similar type of “grind it out win.” These situations are very different, however. The Lions have been playing extremely hard for Head Coach Dan Campbell and getting the most out of what little talent they have. They also had the added motivation of playing their former QB, Matthew Stafford, and supporting their new QB, Jared Goff, against his former team. Meanwhile, the Texans have been getting throttled recently (which has to hurt morale) and appear to have disrupted the locker room with the trade of Mark Ingram, given the reactions to the move by some veterans still with the team. The Deshaun Watson trade rumors (and everything encompassing that situation) are growing louder every week as the trade deadline approaches. Suffice it to say; the Texans are a bit of a mess.
The Texans rank bottom four in the NFL on offense AND defense in both run and pass DVOA. Los Angeles is 6-1 and absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball right now — they should be able to move the ball in whatever manner they prefer. Their run/pass ratio is right around the league average (58% pass), and this matchup doesn’t provide anything that should skew them away from that. Matthew Stafford is having a career year with the best supporting cast and scheme he has ever had and is answering every question critics have thrown his way over the years. Stafford is a legitimate MVP candidate, and the Rams could certainly come out very aggressive and let him rack up more stats and build on their momentum here. The Rams’ run game struggled against the Lions last week, so it would also make sense for them to try to get that back on track here against a Texans run defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in DVOA and yards per carry allowed. The Bills are the closest comparable to the Rams in terms of opponents the Texans have faced (both teams are top-5 in defensive DVOA, top-10 in offensive DVOA, top-3 in situation-neutral pace, and have similar run/pass ratios). The Bills absolutely teed off on the Texans in Week 4, to the tune of a 40-0 victory. After a sluggish effort last week against the Lions, we should fully expect the Rams to come out swinging and try to dominate this game from the start. The Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air in this matchup and should have a great deal of success doing both.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
While all signs point to a Rams smash, we still need to attempt to make a case for the Texans to keep this game competitive. The first thing we can look at is their Home/Road splits. Houston is 1-2 at home and 0-4 on the road, with their two home losses coming by an average of nine points and their four road losses being by an average of 26 points. In theory, it makes sense that a poor team like the Texans would do much better at home than on the road. Another glimmer of hope lies in the possibility that Tyrod Taylor will return at quarterback. Taylor led the Texans to their lone victory in Week 1 and had them tied with a very good Browns team at halftime of their Week 2 game prior to exiting with his hamstring injury. Taylor provides a dual-threat presence to the Texans offense that helps them sustain drives and keep their poor defense off the field longer while also taking much better care of the ball than rookie QB Davis Mills.
Houston operates at a very slow pace (25th in situation-neutral pace of play) and runs the ball at a slightly above-average rate. The trade of Mark Ingram this week should not do anything drastic to alter those splits as the Texans have several other veteran running backs who should be able to step in and mirror Ingram’s replacement level efficiency. However, the Rams defense poses an extremely difficult challenge in all areas for the Texans. The Rams have the #2 graded run defense by PFF while also ranking 4th in pass defense DVOA. While neither option is great, I do expect the Texans to lean a little more run-heavy than usual in an attempt to slow the game and limit turnovers. When the Texans do throw the ball, we should expect a lot of short-area passing in the middle of the field and screen passes. Davis Mills ranks 32nd out of 35 qualifying QBs in PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards, while the Rams defense has an extremely talented secondary and #7 graded pass rush by PFF. It is very unlikely the Texans can or will be able to attack downfield in this spot.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
The Rams are likely to take control of this game very early and lead throughout. The Texans lack explosive offensive pieces that could let them take control of the game early and control the tempo of the game, as the Lions were able to do last week. Houston will try to slow things down early, although they will probably not have much success in doing so. This game actually sets up very similarly to the Rams’ game in New York against the Giants from two weeks ago as the Rams should be able to move the ball at will, and the Texans simply do not have the pieces to keep up. The indoor environment also reduces the chances of fluke plays caused by weather or messing up the anticipated game script. Of the 12 games on this slate, this game is probably the most predictable in terms of game flow and outcome. The Rams are aggressive by nature and will likely stay that way into the 4th quarter, regardless of the scoreboard, with the Texans having to become more aggressive than they would like fairly early, although their “aggressive” will likely come in the form of relatively conservative passing accompanied by an elevated pace rather than a downfield attacking mindset. It is important to note that if Tyrod Taylor is able to play, that would significantly help the chances the Texans can keep this game competitive into the second half.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Overview:
- Stafford’s Rams have scored: 34 // 27 // 34 // 20 // 26 // 38 // 28
- Davis Mills’ Texans have scored: 9 // 0 // 22 // 3 // 3 // 5
Matthew Stafford:
- Stafford is averaging 310.3 yds, 2.7 TD, 0.6 INT in his first seven games with McVay
- Only DET has faced fewer pass att/g than HOU
- Pass att vs HOU: 51 // 24 // 34 // 30 // 30 // 20 // 28
- Stafford’s pass att (win margin): 26 (+20) // 30 (+3) // 38 (+10) // 41 (-17) // 37 (+9) // 28 (+27) // 41 (+9)
- Stafford has thrown 26 & 28 passes in the Rams two 20+ pt wins
- The Rams are favored by 14.5 pts on the road vs HOU
- HOU’s margin of victory: +16 // -10 // -15 // -40 // -3 // -28 // -26
- Stafford’s only games as 10+ pt favorite since 2014: 27.2 // 7.9 // 22.7 // 30.2 DK pts
- 18 of 64 QBs since 2014 on teams implied for 31+ pts have scored 30+ DK pts
- 13 of 56 QBs since 2014 on teams favored by 14+ pts have scored 25+ DK pts (5 of 30+ DK pts)
- Two of the five 30+ DK pt scores were Mahomes & Lamar vs the Gase-Jets in 2020 that ranked 8th in def rush DVOA but 28th in def pass DVOA
- HOU ranks 12th in def pass DVOA and 30th in def rush DVOA
LAR WRs:
- Kupp has finished with 90+ yds in 6/7 games: 108 // 163 // 96 // 64 // 92 // 130 // 156
- Kupp has between 10-13 tg in every game
- Since 2014, 7 WRs averaging 10+ tg have been 14+ pt favorites (DK pts): D Thomas (22.5) // Edelman (16.5) // A Brown (43.9) // Juju (14.7) // M Thomas (9.1) // Diggs (21.4) // Kupp (40.6)
- Kupp in the two 20+ pt LAR Ws: 7:108:1 (10tg) // 9:130:2 (12tg)
- Tg, TD inside the 10: Kupp (9, 6) // Higbee (5, 1) // Woods (3, 1) // Van (1, 0)
- Woods only has two games of more than 6 targets
- Woods has 15 DK pts or fewer in 6 of 7 games, with the one outlier being a 30 pt score in the only game he’s out-produced Kupp this season
- HOU has allowed the 5th highest success rate & 3rd highest yds/att to WRs
- WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80)
- HOU has allowed the 7th highest rate of explosive passes to WRs
- HOU has allowed 18 deep completions on 29 deep WR targets
- Deep rec/tg: Kupp (13/24) // Woods (4/11) // Van (4/11) // DJax (3/9) // Higbee (1/2)
Tyler Higbee:
- TEs with 40+ yds vs HOU: O’Shag (48) // Bryant (49), Hooper (40) // Henry (75:1) // Ertz (66:1)
- HOU has allowed six TE TDs
- Higbee is playing 91% of snaps and running routes on 75% of Rams passes
- Higbee has five games of 5+ tg: 6 // 1 // 5 // 6 // 2 // 5 // 8
Darrell Henderson:
- HOU has allowed 7 RB rush TDs, & 4 more QB rush TDs
- LAR rush att inside-20: Henderson (16) // Michel (9)
- LAR rush att inside-10: Henderson (9) // Michel (2)
- LAR rush att inside-5: Henderson (5) // Michel (1)
- Backfields vs HOU are averaging 153.1 total yds; HOU allowed a league-high 190.9 yds/g in 2020 so that’s still a positive increase for the Texans
- Twelve RBs in seven games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
- Henderson’s rush att in the 4 Rams Wins he’s played in full: 16 // 17 // 21 // 15
- RBs with 14+ rush att vs HOU: Singletary (14:79), Moss (14:61:1) // Harris (14:58:1) // Edmonds (15:81)
- Henderson rush yds: 70:1 // 53:1 // 89 // 82:1 // 78:1 // 45
- Henderson rec yds: 17 // 29 // 27 // 17 // 29:1 // 19
- 6 of 32 RBs since 2014 averaging 14+ rush att as 14+ pt favorites have scored 25+ DK pts; average of 14.3% ownership across large tournaments
Davis Mills:
- Rams have forced the 6th most TOs (12)
- Mills has 8 TOs in 5.5 games
- Mills has scored over 11 DK pts just once
- Goff already has three games under 10 DK pts
- 35 QBs vs LAR since Ramsey arrived are averaging just 15.8 DK pts, with the only QBs over just 20 DK pts being Dalton, Lamar, Kyler (x2), Allen, Jimmy, Rodgers, Brady
- 8/35 QBs vs Ramsey’s Rams have topped 20 DK pts, and only 4/35 over just 24 DK pts (36.3, 36.2, 25.5, 31.7), while 21/35 have finished below 15 DK pts
Brandin Cooks:
- Elite perimeter WRs vs LAR in 2020: Cooper (10:81) // Diggs (4:49:1) // McLaurin (3:26) // ARob (4:70) // Metcalf (2:28; 6:59; 5:96:2) // Evans (5:49:1) // Hop (8:52:1; 4:35)
- Team’s top WRs vs LAR in 2021: ARob (6:35) // Pittman (8:123) // Evans (8:106) // Hopkins (4:67) // Metcalf (5:98:2) // Shepard (10:76) // Raymond (6:115)
- In the 25 games since 2020, LAR have allowed 42 WRs to surpass 40 rec yds, but just 21 above 60 yds
- However, 8 of the 21 over 60 yds have come in the last five games (Evans, Godwin, Johnson, Hopkins, Green, Metcalf, Shepard, Raymond)
- Cooks in 4.5 games with Mills: 4:28:1 // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21
- Only WRs over just 15 DK pts vs LAR since 2020: Deebo (27.3) // Metcalf (26.8, 26.6) // Pittman (23.3) // Adams (21.6) // Evans (21.6) // Raymond (20.6) // Lazard (19.6) // Godwin (19.6) // Hopkins (19.2) // Beasley (19) // Cooper (18.1) // Deebo (18) // Green (17.7) // Shepard (17.6)
- That’s just three scores over 25 DK pts (none over 30): two were 2-TD Metcalf games, and in the other Deebo had just 2 of his 11 rec come 5+ yds past the LOS
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