Xandamere’s Showdown Slant

It only took until Week 2 for us to get an absolutely miserable game for an island Showdown. The Giants visit Washington in a game with a 41 total and Washington favored by a field goal. Vegas, obviously, expects this to be a very low-scoring affair (the first one of the island Showdowns so far), which impacts not just individual player selection but also our overall strategy for how to attack the slate, which we’ll dig into here. It’s also worth noting that we don’t have projections up for this game yet, which means I’ll be making some educated guesses on things that projections will address in more detail.

Click For Xandamere’s FanDuel Single-Game Course

A legit *must-read* if your purpose for playing DFS is to make money
Don’t typically play on FanDuel?
Exactly!

WASHINGTON

We’ll start with Washington as they are the more exciting team despite the loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The run game is largely about Antonio Gibson, and I expect he’ll have the highest raw points projection on the slate, above the mediocre quarterbacks. In Week 1, Gibson played 65% of the snaps and saw 20 carries and five targets, with the targets being a mild surprise. There was talk of Washington using Gibson more in a pass game role this year, but until we see it, it’s hard to buy, as we see that kind of talk ALL the time about running backs. As a home favorite with near bell-cow status, Gibson is the strongest overall play on the slate. Backup JD McKissic saw 36% of the snaps but just one carry, and more importantly, just one target. Last season, we saw McKissic dominate the pass game role while Gibson was mostly a 2-down back so this is encouraging usage for Gibson, but it’s also worth noting that Washington only attempted 21 passes in the entire game. McKissic should see more than one target per game going forward, but the trust in Gibson in the passing game is exciting. Third-string back Jaret Patterson saw two carries and one target and is an afterthought except potentially in MME pools, and in that case, you’re betting on either Gibson getting hurt or the game getting completely out of hand (i.e. only use Patterson either without Gibson or in Washington onslaught builds).

In the passing game, Washington had a very narrow usage tree, with Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Logan Thomas playing between 90-100% of the snaps; Adam Humphries in a roughly 60% role as the slot receiver; and then a smattering of minor backup usage. Again, we need to remember that Washington only attempted 21 passes, and this usage might well change if they’re throwing more…but with backup Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, they probably don’t want to be throwing much at all. McLaurin is the premium guy here, obviously. He’s the best receiver play in the game and there isn’t much else to say about him. Logan Thomas is priced up at $7,400, which is pretty pricey for a tight end, but for one playing every offensive snap and going up against a defense that has historically been vulnerable to tight ends, he’s a decent play despite the price tag. The most interesting receiving play on Washington, though, is Brown. The rookie wideout played almost every snap and was second on the team in targets (with a whopping four). He didn’t do much with it, but being able to spend $1,400 for a full-time player on the favored team is just a ridiculous value. Expect him to be extremely popular and thus one of the pivotal decision points on the slate; as in, he’s objectively one of the strongest plays, but everyone else is going to realize this as well. I’m actually quite interested in Humphries, who is in a bit of a dead-zone pricing wise. With the value of Brown, I expect Humphries is going to attract relatively modest ownership, but a possession receiver who can rack up some PPR points is exactly the kind of play who can work out perfectly in a low-scoring game. Your MME punt receivers are Ricky Seals-Jones, Cam Sims, DeAndre Carter, and maybe Dax Milne or John Bates if you want to get really frisky/crazy/dumb (pick your adjective). All of these plays are very thin and I listed them in the order in which I prefer them.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

GIANTS

Showdown Slants are for OWS Week, OWS Annual, and Inner Circle members only

Game Overview ::

By Papy324>>> 

• New England will feel a lot of pressure to win this game
• The Jets looked lost on offense in Week 1
• Damien Harris offers cheap touches if he isn’t in the doghouse
• The best play from this game is likely a defense

How New England Will Try to Win ::

The Patriots are coming off a tough one-point loss against an opponent they’ve consistently beaten for the better part of the past two decades (Tom Brady is 23-12 against Miami in his career). Does it feel to anyone else like the Patriots have the most pressure of any team entering Week 2? After a lackluster rebuilding year, followed by a frantic offseason of spending, the Patriots faithful fully expect a 2021 return to glory. An 0-2 start would not only put the Patriots up against stiff odds historically to make the playoffs, but it would also ignite a narrative that the “Patriot way” was really just the “Brady way.” 

Fortunately for the Pats, they draw a lackluster Jets team starting a rookie QB in his second career game. The Pats gave us a glimpse of how they want to attack in Week 1: Slam Damien Harris into the opposing front seven and let their elite offensive line control the game. This style makes sense, given that the Pats are starting a rookie QB. Damien Harris got 23 carries in Week 1, and they continued to ride him until a costly fumble lost them the game late in the fourth quarter. We can only assume that Bill Belichick will curse Harris’ family line for generations over such an offense. Still, given the other options in the backfield, Bill is likely to keep featuring Harris. 

The passing game is the path of least resistance against a Jets secondary leaving a lot to be desired. However, the Pats are also starting a rookie QB in his second game, and if they can control the game on defense, they are likely to opt for a ground and pound approach. When they do take to the air, the receiving work is spread out, with eight different players catching a pass in Week 1 and no one earning double-digit targets. Jakobi Meyers was the most involved with nine looks but only turned them into six receptions for 44 yards. Behind Meyers, Nelson Agholor and James White saw seven targets each. The Pats new TEs (Jonnu Smith/Hunter Henry) saw five and three targets, respectively, effectively splitting the TE production. The Pats should be content to limit their risk in the passing game while exploiting the Jets weak secondary on crucial third downs.  

How New York Will Try to Win ::

“You’ll still never run 60 plays!” shouts Adams Gase as he curses the Jets on his way out the door. Do the Jets deserve a Week 1 mulligan? Are we playing breakfast balls? Things were supposed to be different under new OC Mike LaFleur, and in fairness, at least LaFleur tried. The Jets ran a sad 54 plays, but most of them were aggressive, attempting 37 passes. 

Zach Wilson looked like a frightened child in his debut. He consistently failed to deliver the ball on time, and the game appeared to be moving too fast for him. Wilson did not pass the eye test in Week 1 and in comes a Patriots team with a coach that is known to confuse rookie QBs. This matchup looks scary for Wilson. The Jets should stay aggressive and “try to win” with their new coaching regime, but they lack the roster to be effective. 

On the ground, the Jets split work between Tevin Coleman (nine carries), Ty Johnson (four carries), and Michael Carter (four carries). When you slice up a small pie three different ways, no one gets much pie. Expect the Jets to try and be more balanced for as long as this game remains competitive. 

When the Jets took to the air in Week 1, they operated a spread-out attack with nine different players seeing targets and no one seeing more than seven. Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios led the way with seven looks each. Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft split the TE work almost evenly, capping both players’ potential to make an impact. Minimum-priced Week 1 darling Elijah Moore massively disappointed, registering only four targets and managing to “gain” negative three yards. The Jets will try and protect Wilson before eventually letting him do his best to win the game. 

Most Likely Game Flow ::

This game checks in with a lowly 42.5 total, by far the lowest on the slate. We should expect the Pats to be content to win this game on defense and with a power running game. They have no reason to expose Mac Jones to a mistake-prone game and should be able to let him do just enough to get his first NFL win. The Jets will “try to win,” unlike the Adam Gase years, but simply don’t have the talent on their roster to keep up. Expect an ineffective running game to eventually lead to an ineffective passing game as the Jets enter catch-up mode.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY MJohnson86 >>

• Both teams will likely have a “spread the wealth” attack
• Denver should have a fairly significant advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball
• One team was hampered by self-inflicted mistakes in Week 1 and the other played a very clean game
• Denver is a conservative, win with defense type of team by nature and Jacksonville is likely to try to slow the game down to stay competitive and protect Trevor Lawrence
• Likeliest game flow is a slow game with a chance of Denver pulling away sooner than expected if Jacksonville makes the same mistakes they did in their season opener

HOW Denver WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Denver should be efficient as they move the ball against the talent-deficient defense of Jacksonville. Teddy Bridgewater is not a high-end QB but what he does extremely well is make good decisions and take care of the ball. Denver has playmakers all over the field — while none of them would qualify as “elite” playmakers, they have two RBs, three WRs, and two TEs who would all qualify as “above average” at their positions. I would expect Denver to use a lot of motion, misdirection, and play action to take advantage of the undisciplined Jaguars defense. Denver has a big advantage on the offensive line and should be able to create big holes for their RBs and provide time when needed for Bridgewater. The passing attack will likely focus on short-area concepts that are high percentage completions and force the Jaguars to “prove it” by making tackles and not having breakdowns, rather than taking a lot of shots downfield and “wasting” downs. 

It is unlikely Denver will feel the need to be overly aggressive early in the game and will focus on moving the ball efficiently and getting points early to put the Jaguars in a hole. That will allow Denver’s defense to pin their ears back and cause chaos for Jacksonville’s offense.

HOW Jacksonville WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Jacksonville’s season opener was difficult to watch. Trevor Lawrence is “as-advertised” and has every tool you would want from a franchise QB — he controls the line of scrimmage and makes audibles as needed, goes through his progressions, has tremendous arm strength and accuracy, keeps his eyes downfield while scrambling, and has the ability to make off-platform throws. Unfortunately, he was put in nearly the most difficult situation you can imagine in his first game as a professional. The disheartening thing about it was this happened against what is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league in the Houston Texans. 

Watching that game, it was appalling how many self-inflicted mistakes (drops, penalties, and missed blocks) the players around Lawrence were making. Repeatedly on first down the Jaguars would commit a penalty, drop an on-target pass, or run for a short gain or loss. The first two possessions for the Jaguars were short-circuited by first down penalties that put them behind the chains and allowed the Texans to bring pressure and put Lawrence’s back against the wall. Their third possession almost had the same thing happen, except after an incompletion on a 3rd and 19 play the Texans committed a Roughing the Passer penalty that kept the drive alive and led to Jacksonville’s only first-half points. Lawrence also had two second quarter interceptions — both of which were ALSO preceded by offensive penalties that put them in long down and distance situations. After falling behind 27-7 at halftime, the Jaguars came out very conservatively to start the second half and had consecutive 3-and-out possessions to fall behind 34-7. The Jaguars did score two more touchdowns — one which was aided by another Roughing the Passer penalty on Houston and the other in garbage time with 0:09 left against Houston’s backups.

I normally wouldn’t go so in-depth about the previous week’s game in this situation, but I’m hoping for your sake you didn’t watch that game and I think that is all important context to consider when thinking about how Jacksonville will approach Week 2. The priority for Jacksonville should be putting Lawrence in better positions and there should be an emphasis on discipline and execution this week in practice. As a former college coach with an inflated ego, by all reports, Meyer has approached this season the same way he did with his college teams so it is somewhat comical to see the results play out in such a disorganized, undisciplined way. (Shocking that Meyer’s dictatorship tactics that he used as a means to get teenagers to fall in line have not worked with paid professionals at the highest level of their craft.)

Warren Sharp has spoken for years about the importance of early-down success as it creates favorable conditions for second and third down plays with shorter distances to gain. Assuming the Jaguars have any sense of themselves, I would expect a heavy dose of runs and short passes to start the game — hoping to sustain drives and get to halftime with the game within one score in either direction. The matchup on the outside is very difficult as Denver has an elite secondary and multiple pass rushers who can create havoc if Lawrence is forced to stand back in the pocket and wait for things to develop.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

Denver should be able to move the ball fairly well in this game. Teddy Bridgewater makes good decisions with the ball and doesn’t lock onto one player — taking whatever the defense gives him as the path of least resistance. They have advantages at the line of scrimmage and there isn’t a spot they will need to avoid. The likeliest game flow is long possessions ending in points for Denver, with Jacksonville taking a conservative approach that will result in short possessions and punts or longer possessions and field goals — which direction that goes for Jacksonville will depend on if their offensive line can improve from their putrid Week 1 performance (which I expect they will).

This game will likely stay reasonably close through halftime, though the Broncos should be able to create some separation in the second half. If the Jaguars make the same sloppy mistakes they made last week, this timeline could get accelerated and speed things up on one side of the ball but the Broncos are unlikely to have a reason to match that speed.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY MJohnson86 >>

• Buffalo is coming off of a disappointing home loss and flat offensive showing to start their season.
• Miami is coming off of a big road win to start their season.
• Both teams are better positioned this week for offensive success than they were in their season opener.
• Josh Allen should have a clean pocket most of the day
• Sneaky potential for an uptempo game

HOW BUffalo WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Steelers showed a blueprint of how to slow down the Bills attack in Week 1, holding them far below their expectations by sitting back in coverage and not blitzing very often. This made it difficult for the Bills to move the ball or find openings in coverage to keep drives alive. Buffalo will likely need to increase their run rate against better defenses going forward to keep teams honest. Miami, however, doesn’t have anything close to the same pass rush and defensive line that the Steelers have, which makes sitting back in coverage a much more difficult proposition for them. On top of that, the Dolphins played man coverage at the highest rate in the league and it would be a huge change from their philosophies to switch things up and sit in zones. I would expect the Dolphins to stick with who they are and bring pressure and play man for this first matchup of the year with a divisional opponent. If it doesn’t work this time, they will likely make the adjustment for the second matchup, but the strength of their defense is in their premier CBs, so from a coaching perspective it would send a bad message to your team if you make a big change like that so early in the season — essentially telling your best defensive players you don’t think they can handle the matchup.

The Bills are going to start out with more runs than they used in Week 1, but the allure of man coverage will be too tempting to not attack with their elite receiving corps that is shifty and great at creating separation. On a similar mindset that we talked about for the Dolphins, Week 2 is too early for the Bills to make large-scale changes in how they play based on one down week — especially coming off of a season where they made the conference championship. Allen should once again throw the ball 40+ times and will likely use his legs more on scrambles against a blitzing defense that will turn its back to him while chasing WRs in man coverage.

HOW Miami WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Miami came out of Week 1 with a road victory at New England. While it wasn’t necessarily pretty on either side of the ball, they got the job done in a place that is never easy to play against a team that is always extremely well prepared in those games with extra preparation time. This week they are back home for another key divisional matchup, but their opponent could not be more different in terms of personnel and approach. While the Patriots want to pound the ball and play a ton of 12 personnel (two tight ends), the Bills throw at the highest rate in the league and play three or four wide receivers on the overwhelming majority of their offensive plays.

Miami has a smart coaching staff who understands the game and what it takes to win. While they have a good defense, their staff should understand that the Bills are going to score points and they need to score points early and often to have a chance rather than hoping to keep it close and then scrambling for points from behind. With Will Fuller back in the lineup, the Dolphins have playmakers and speed all over the field. The Bills bottled up Najee Harris in Week 1 and will likely not provide much room for the Dolphins’ run game either. With so many field stretchers and some players who are great with the ball in their hands, the Dolphins will likely be pass heavy while still being conscious of protecting QB Tua Tagovailoa and getting the ball out of his hands in a timely manner — as their offensive line has a lot of issues to overcome. When they do throw downfield, it will almost certainly be away from the Bills’ star CB Tre’Davious White — although he is unlikely to have a “shadow” matchup, so that really doesn’t tell us anything specific about a player likely to benefit. It is also noteworthy that Tua was moving very well in Week 1, now almost two years removed from the hip injury that hobbled him last season, and the Dolphins will likely get him out of the pocket on some designed plays to stretch the Bills defense.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

Both teams played at a high pace and with a decent amount of no-huddle in Week 1. I would expect the same here as that is at the core of who the Bills are and the Dolphins are smart enough to know they need to be aggressive and score early to have a chance to win. The Dolphins two most successful drives in Week 1 were their drives where they used more no-huddle and played at an uptempo pace, which should not be lost on the coaching staff and, with Fuller back in the lineup, they have every reason to press their foot on the gas. In a divisional matchup where both teams know each other so well, there is a good chance this game starts somewhat slowly, but it has a high likelihood to pick up pace and scoring as the game wears on. The biggest threat to this game taking off would be the lack of a running game for both teams, which could cause some issues with red zone efficiency and keep the scoring in check even if volume and pace are up, as expected. However, both teams have deep threats and playmakers who can score from anywhere and QBs who are capable with their legs so that concern should not be a reason to completely stay away.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• San Francisco had many positives from their season opening win, but also showed some issues that a better opponent may expose
• Both teams will face more resistance at the line of scrimmage than they faced Week 1
• From a “matchup” perspective, both teams had close to as optimal of a situation as they could ask for to start the season
• These teams were predictable, albeit with a spread the wealth approach, when playing while in control of the game; if one team takes a substantial lead here, how they react will be less predictable or certain

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers will attempt to control this game at the line of scrimmage and put Jimmy Garropolo in manageable situations throughout the game. The reduced playing time of Brandon Aiyuk and the season-ending injury of Raheem Mostert significantly alter the makeup of the San Francisco offense from a playmaking standpoint. With Mostert out and rookie Trey Sermon in, it is anyone’s guess how the backfield touches will be deployed. The Eagles are historically above average against TEs and after watching Week 1 will likely be prepared to give extra attention to Deebo Samuel. This has the feeling of a bit of a standoff as the Eagles are unlikely to get torched by any specific SF player but also are unlikely to completely shut down any specific avenue for production.

The 49ers will likely attempt to assert themselves on the ground and use play-action or other means of misdirection to create advantages early against an aggressive Eagles defense. In an ideal world, their defense will contain the Eagles and they will sustain methodical, efficient drives and punctuate them with touchdowns. While this outcome is far from a certainty, the 49ers are well coached and have a veteran heavy roster that could execute at a high level and take control early.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles have what appears to be a franchise cornerstone QB, top 5 offensive line, and speedy playmakers at the skill positions. Jalen Hurts gives them a chance to win any game with his dynamic playmaking ability and what he has shown to be above average decision making. With dynamic playmaker Miles Sanders and explosive rookie Kenny Gainwell in the backfield, the Eagles will stretch opposing defenses horizontally and force them to respect many different run game concepts from the opening kick. The Eagles also have a variety of weapons in the pass game in their dependable and playmaking TEs in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, as well as a trio of playmaking WRs in Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins. I would expect many read-option type of looks early from the Eagles, as well as some play-action or double-move type of shot plays that attempt to exploit an aggressive 49ers defense. The 49ers gave up 33 points to the Lions who were led by Jared Goff in Week 1; while I expect them to perform better in a more competitive game, it is worth noting that they had many flaws against a talent deficient offense and the Eagles are much more likely to exploit any deficiencies from the start.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams are likely to sustain drives but encounter difficulty turning those drives into a large number of points. The likeliest game flow is the Eagles controlling the line of scrimmage on the offensive side and moving the ball consistently (as the Lions were able to do when they provided adequate protection for Goff). The 49ers are likely to turn to their run game and play action as a means to protect Garoppolo in this spot. While Kyle Shanahan has a pissing match with his possible superstar WR, Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers may struggle to move the ball early in the game. The reality is that, as great of an offensive mind as Shanahan is, the 49ers can’t just move one of their best players into a part-time role and expect to move the ball consistently against a respectable defense. In this scenario, the 49ers will likely be spreading their rushes between two or three running backs while trying to get the ball out of Jimmy G’s hands quickly on passing plays to Deebo and George Kittle (or a plethora of other “meh” skill position players). On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are likely to test and stretch the 49ers defense horizontally first with misdirection and read-option concepts and then vertically with shot plays to their elite speed options.

This should be a competitive game throughout. Both teams are well coached and have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to keep the game from getting out of hand either way. Meanwhile, neither team is likely to completely abandon their identity (rushes and short passes followed by YAC) at any point before the 4th quarter unless somehow they are facing an extreme deficit.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW::

By Hilow >>

• Not much to love from this one from a “guaranteed points” perspective – floors are mostly scary low
• Jonathan Taylor gains some appeal for his heavy involvement in the Colts offense, but the matchup is less than ideal
• Rams defense may gain steam as the week progresses, but I don’t like betting on low pressure rate defensive lines against solid offensive lines

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

First of all, this offense is so much more fun to watch with a quarterback capable of attacking all areas of the field. The Rams ran only 52 offensive plays in a Week 1 dismantling of the Bears and held a very modest 54% situation-neutral pass rate. The offensive snap rates played out largely as we thought they would, with tight end Tyler Higbee leading the way with a full 100% snap rate, followed by Cooper Kupp at a  94% snap rate (tied with running back Darrell Henderson, who I expect to see his snaps gradually decrease as Sony Michel learns the offense), Robert Woods at 77%, Van Jefferson at 69%, and offseason addition DeSean Jackson at 27%. 20 of Matthew Stafford’s 26 pass attempts filtered through the three primary pass-catchers (Kupp: 10, Higbee: 6, Woods: 4). Expect the Rams to continue to play with pace in neutral to negative game scripts, allow their top-rated defense to provide good field position and additional possessions, and remain aggressive with the ball as the year goes on.

As previously mentioned, Darrell Henderson played a massive 94% of the offensive snaps run from scrimmage in Week 1 and saw 17 of 18 total running back opportunities. His snap rate and opportunity share was a full 100% until deep into the game when Sony Michel saw his one carry. I expect this to turn into a loose committee once Sony learns a complex offense and run scheme, which could be as soon as this week or could take a few weeks. Henderson saw only one target on 16 routes run, but the Rams largely didn’t need much as they cruised to an easy victory. I expect Henderson to lead the way once again with Sony likely mixing in for 15-20% of the offensive snaps. The matchup is a poor one against a top three run defense from 2020, even after the Colts surrendered 5.37 adjusted line yards in Week 1.

The aerial attack is where the majority of the fantasy value on this team lies. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee are all borderline every-snap players in a high-powered passing offense. The biggest news out of this game as far as injuries go lies with the Colts second level as both All-World linebacker Darius Leonard and lockdown corner Xavier Rhodes have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday). Leonard missing would be a large boost to the Rams offense overall but a massive boost to Tyler Higbee, while Rhodes’ absence would again benefit the entire Rams offense but be a massive boost to both Kupp and Woods. Consider all three high, high ceiling plays here. The Colts continue to struggle with the deep ball, providing further intrigue for the speed of Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Colts landed in the middle of the pack with respect to situation-neutral pass rate in Week 1 at 58%, right in line with their 56% rate from 2020. The limitations placed on the offense through Carson Wentz should not be understated as his 6.6 yards per completion places him in the bottom three in the league. This offense should continue to flow through the running backs, with low upside passing mixed in.

The ground game flows through Jonathan Taylor, who also saw additional pass game usage in Week 1 compared to his previous roles (seven targets). The fantasy prospectus for this Colts run game depends largely on the health of their offensive line as two members of one of last season’s top-rated offensive lines worked their way back from offseason surgeries. The matchup is middling on paper after the Colts struggled to sustain a push up front against the solid run defense of the Seahawks. The matchup yields an average net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.17.

The biggest surprise from Week 1 through the air was the heavy involvement of both running backs in the pass game. Colts running backs accounted for 15 of the 38 total targets, split eight to seven in favor of Taylor over Hines. With TY Hilton still out, expect Michael Pittman, Jr. and Zach Pascal to continue to operate as the starting wide receivers, with both Parris Campbell and rookie Mike Strachan mixing in for three-wide sets. Keep an eye on Strachan, tight end Jack Doyle, and offensive linemen Quenton Nelson’s injury statuses leading up to the game as all three have either yet to practice or have gotten in only one limited practice as of Thursday. As alluded to earlier, the pass game is primarily short and intermediate work and of the low upside variety. 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW::

It is likely up to the Colts to keep pace here the way this game lines up. Expect them to start the game attempting to control the time of possession battle but eventually be forced to move the ball via increased short-area passing and long, sustained drives. This should lead to a scenario where the Rams assert control of the game rather early and can run a conservative offense deeper into the game. With this type of set up, we shouldn’t expect a spike to volume for the primary pass-catchers out of the Rams, and the Colts spread the ball enough (and are low-upside enough) to limit much of the fantasy appeal from the game overall. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Expect volume for Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster over the short areas of the field against a defensive scheme designed to limit yards after the catch
• The snap rates, usage numbers, and opportunity shares for every Raider not named Darren Waller leave secondary Raider options completely off the table in a difficult matchup
• Darren Waller could legitimately lead the league in targets, a highly valuable proposition from a tight end position devoid of bankable production

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

Vegas called 26 pass plays to only 10 rush plays in the first half of their MNF game against the Ravens, ending with 56 pass attempts to just 21 rush attempts. Now, does that indicate a philosophical shift away from the heavy situation-neutral rush rates from 2020 (44%, ninth highest in the league), or might it require a little more nuance? Starting running back Josh Jacobs was noticeably less than 100% after being out or limited for most of the practice week leading up to the game. Furthermore, the duo of Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams form one of the top run-stopping defensive line units in the league. Might this be more a case of specific game planning? In my opinion, it is much more likely to be the latter. On a standard week, we should still expect the Raiders to be a run-balanced team, capable of hitting all three depths of the field through the passing game if required to do so. This game, however, is not expected to be a standard week for them.

The matchup on the ground yields a below average 3.5 net-adjusted line yards metric, and Josh Jacobs is still nursing both foot and toe injuries, having missed practices on Wednesday and Thursday. I would tentatively expect him to play but be rather limited in both snap rate and efficiency. One thing we know from this Raiders offense is their propensity to punch the ball into the end zone on the ground, with Jacobs rushing for two more scores Week 1 on only 10 carries. But poor matchup, poor health, and likely neutral to negative game script have this backfield a complete stay away for me.

Through the air, the offense starts and mostly stops with tight end Darren Waller. We all found out fairly quickly how well relying on previous year’s data can burn you as recently as TJ Hockenson versus the Niners, but this Steelers unit finished 2020 allowing the second fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position, second only to the aforementioned Niners. In their Week 1 stunning overtime win, Darren Waller was the only member of the Raiders (outside of quarterback Derek Carr) to play more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps run from scrimmage. Quite telling, no? Bryan Edwards, Henry Ruggs III, Foster Moreau, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, and Kenyan Drake all played between 66% and 48% of the offensive snaps. I look for that to continue here in what should be considered a difficult matchup from top to bottom.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

A year after finishing second in the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 65%, the Steelers came out and held a rate of 62% in the same metric in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger simply does not have the arm strength he once did, and the struggles of the young offensive line remained, leaving a majority of that passing work to fall in the short to intermediate variety in Week 1. Overall, the identity of this team continues to revolve around a suffocating defense and a short to intermediate passing game. One interesting tidbit: the Steelers failed to blitz even once in Week 1, which was likely more a tribute to the escapability of opposing quarterback Josh Allen than it was a sign of things to come this season. It is possible, maybe even probable, we see the Steelers elect to keep their blitz rates low once again here, but for different reasons. With no blitz, the additional personnel can be dedicated inside to blanket coverage on the Raiders’ primary weapon: Darren Waller. This makes the most sense to me from a likely game planning approach, particularly considering the injuries to Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and the organic pressure rates the Steelers defensive line is able to generate on their own.

In what developed into a true slugfest, the Steelers struggled to get anything going on the ground against the Bills, averaging a disparagingly low 2.8 yards per running back carry. The matchup is perceived to be a good one on the ground this week, but the Raiders just held the top run offense in the game to an obscene 3.56 adjusted line yards metric and Pittsburgh displayed a downright putrid 2.60 adjusted line yards metric in their first game. Together it yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of just 3.08 (small sample size alert, but shocking nonetheless!). Yes, rookie running back Najee Harris played on every single offensive snap for the Steelers in their Week 1 game, but I was left wanting more after he saw only three targets on the day. Furthermore, a massive 56% of Harris’ 45 rush yards came after contact. We saw the jet sweeps, pre-snap motions, and shifts that we alluded to in the preseason primer, which are all designed to be utilized from the pistol formation to open up an opposing defense.

Over 33% of the Steelers’ pass plays in Week 1 came through play-action, a method designed to open up the lanes in the second level. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is clearly trying to do what he can with this offense to manufacture success, but the matchup in Week 1 was a difficult one. Big Ben’s 6.2 average intended air yards were right in line with his value from last year so this offense will continue to rely on yards after the catch and high completion rates for success. Opposing defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s bump and run press Cover-3 defensive scheme is one that limits downfield passing, a logical hire after the team allowed a massive 11.4 yards per completion last season. Bradley’s system blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL during his four years in Los Angeles, so we should expect more of the same here. In all, this defensive scheme should do well in limiting yards after the catch potential but should cede high completion rates over the short and intermediate areas of the field. Expect the Steelers to have to methodically march the field here, using the short passing game as an extension of the run game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The primary game flow from this one will be dictated by the Steelers since they hold the clear edge on both sides of the ball. We are likely to see an increase in the standard number of plays run from scrimmage as the Steelers tilt pass-heavy organically and the Raiders are forced to tilt more pass-heavy as well, considering the injuries at running back, their weak offensive line, and a likely neutral to negative game script. This should serve as a bump to the primary volume pieces from both offenses, primarily Darren Waller, Diontae Johnson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. In a setup like this, we can be fairly certain about the floor from these three.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview 

By Papy324>>>

• This is likely to be a run-oriented affair between two teams that want to grind out wins
• Montgomery and Mixon both have game scripts that lead to 30 touch games 
• The Bengals could choose to attack the Bears weak secondary 
• All the key players in this game are affordable and likely to be low owned 

How Cincinnati Will Try to Win ::

The Bengals are coming off a dramatic win in which they barely held off a surging Vikings team to escape with a three-point overtime victory. Surprisingly, Joe Burrow attempted only 27 passes, compared to 36 team carries. Part of that was due to game flow, but the game was never out of hand, and this type of approach might just be the way the Bengals want to attack this season.  

The relative weakness of the Bears defense is their secondary. They boast a strong front seven, with one of the best pass rushers in the game in Kahlil Mack. Did the Bengals pound the ball against the Vikings to expose the relative weakness of the Vikings run defense? Or did they pound the ball against the Vikings because that’s the way the Bengals want to play this year? Week 2 should give us a lot of insight into this question, but given Joe Burrow’s injury last year, I suspect the Bengals want to ride their ground game until forced to give it up. 

Through the air, Burrow will have the best matchup against Chicago’s suspect CBs that Stafford just lit up for 321 yards and three TDs. If the Bengals attack through the air, Burrow is set up for success in a game where the Bears’ secondary will be overmatched against the Bengals’ weapons. The Bears simply don’t have the personnel to cover Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd. 

How Chicago Will Try to Win :: 

The Bears threw the ball 40 times in Week 1 against 26 team carries. This should be taken with a grain of salt, however, because the game flow forced the Bears to turn much pass heavier than they would ideally like to play. Matt Nagy hasn’t always been the best coach, but he’s not foolish enough to think the way to win games is through Andy Dalton. When will we see Justin Fields? No one really knows, but it could happen any play. 

The Bears preferred method of attack is on the ground, where they’ll look to feed David Montgomery for as long as the game is competitive. The Bears are sitting as three-point home favorites, so there is a much better chance this game stays competitive than their Week 1 contest. Montgomery was featured in Week 1 (16 carries), but Damien Williams also received a notable six carries. That split might have been due to game flow, but it’s something to keep an eye on and shows that in negative game scripts, Montgomery might lose work. Expect the Bears to give Montgomery every opportunity to exploit the soft underbelly of the Bengals’ defense. 

When the Bears take to the air, they’ll be attacking the relative “strength” of the Bengals’ defense. The Bengals’ secondary is only a “strength” compared to how bad they are against the run. Admittedly, the Bengals’ run defense surprised in Week 1, holding Dalvin Cook to a meager 3.1 YPC. Maybe the Bengals’ front seven will be better than expected. A one-game sample is too small to change their season outlook, so as of now, continue to consider them a weak unit. None of the Bears pass catchers have a difficult matchup. The biggest obstacle to their success is the Bears preferred method of attack and volume concerns for everyone other than Allen Robinson. 

Most Likely Game Flow ::

This game has one of the lower totals on the slate at only 45 points. However, it’s expected to be a competitive contest with the Bears as three-point home favorites. The most likely game flow is a grind-it-out affair, with both teams preferring to lean on their running games for as long as possible. There is very little chance the Bears stray from a run-oriented, hide Andy Dalton approach. If this game stays close, the Bears will keep trying to run their way to a victory. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow>>>

• Interesting case where the likeliest scenario leads to a maddening spread of touches for the Browns; we expect the Browns to find success but their spread-it-out offense means the floors of all skill position players are lower than we’d otherwise like here
• The field might be looking to the Texans for cheap upside, but that upside is basically a fallacy
• Interesting tributary scenario, not in the sense that an alternate game flow is likely, but from a sense of how the Browns score

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Texans are fresh off an opening week win over the hapless Jaguars. That game saw the Texans control the tempo throughout, which led to a ridiculously low 45% situation-neutral pass rate. Expect this team to start the game attempting to win in the same fashion but to not enjoy the same level of success in the likeliest scenario. That should lead to a substantial increase to the 33 total pass attempts from a week ago.  

The running back situation for the Texans is about as ridiculous as you would have thought heading into the season. Mark Ingram II paced the team in snap rate in Week 1, parlaying 46% of the offensive plays run from scrimmage into 27 total running back opportunities (26 rush attempts and one target). In a game where we can’t confidently project the Texans to run the football 41 times, expect his likeliest scenario to regress to 12-14 running back opportunities. David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead rounded out this four-headed running back nightmare, playing 28%, 26%, and 13% of the offensive snaps, respectively. Expect David Johnson and Rex Burkhead to be more involved this week as the team likely plays from behind, with the likeliest scenario leading to 8-12 running back opportunities for Johnson and 5-7 for Burkhead in the likeliest scenario. Lindsay should round out this backfield with 5-7 opportunities of his own. Big picture: not a ton to love here in a difficult matchup in the trenches.

Brandin Cooks led the team in snap rate amongst pass-catchers at 78% in Week 1, followed by the primary blocking tight end Pharoah Brown, pass-catching tight end Jordan Akins, rookie slot wide receiver Nico Collins, perimeter wide receiver Chris Conley, blocking tight end Antony Auclair, and Swiss army knife wide receiver Danny Amendola. I’d expect the snap rates for Cooks, Akins, Collins, and Conley to increase this week as the team is likely forced to the air with greater frequency. Expect the likeliest scenario for Tyrod Taylor pass attempts to land in the 35-37 attempt range, with 8-12 targets for Cooks, 5-7 for Akins, Conley, and Collins, and 3-5 for Brown. We saw how communication miscues from a zone-heavy defense are likely to happen early in the season in Week 1 after the Browns struggled to contain the speed of Tyreek Hill and underneath skill of Travis Kelce, but consider the upside capped for all players not named Brandin Cooks.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Cleveland’s likeliest plan of attack for this game should be fairly evident to even the most casual of football observers. The team will be without Odell Beckham, Jr. for the second game in a row, carries the highest net-adjusted line yards mismatch we are likely to see all season (5.52), are playing in a game where they are favored by almost two touchdowns, and carry the second-highest Vegas implied team total on the slate. The problem (or good part, depending on who you ask) is that the Texans simply don’t have the personnel to slow down the Browns’ rushing attack.

The Browns finished Week 1 with a situation-neutral pass rate of just 55% in a game against the top football team in the league, which closely mirrors their 2020 value of 52%. This team likes to run the ball and they do it damn well. Running back Nick Chubb is quite possibly the best pure runner of the football in the league and he runs behind the top offensive line in the league. Change of pace specialist Kareem Hunt is quite possibly the most talented “backup” running back in the league. The Browns ran 59 total offensive plays in Week 1 against the best team in the league (who were much more likely to sustain drives than the Texans here – the Browns finished Week 1 ranked third in the NFL in drive success rate while the Chiefs finished second; the Texans finished 19^th). This means that we’re likely to see a slight uptick in total offensive plays run from scrimmage. The likeliest scenario leads to 27-31 total rushes from the Browns here with upside for more, which should lead to a tight 18-22 running back opportunities for Nick Chubb and 12-16 for Kareem Hunt.

Wide receiver Jarvis Landry predictably ran low upside routes in Week 1, finishing with an average depth of target of just 3.4 yards and an average air yards per route of 0.33. Expect him to once again lead the team in snap rate and route rate, but the upside is capped until he is deployed in a higher upside role. Donovan Peoples-Jones ranked second on the team in snaps and routes run, followed by Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Anthony Schwartz, and Harrison Bryant. Expect the elevated 12-personnel (and even some 13-personnel) rates to continue for as long as Odell Beckham, Jr. remains out after the team ran 11-personnel only 44% of their Week 1 snaps. The matchup is a good one, but we can’t confidently project the Browns to attack heavily through the air in the likeliest scenario here.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

When we consider all the angles (as we should for each and every game on a slate), this game falls towards the bottom of the list when it comes to potential tributary game scenarios. The likeliest game flow is the Browns are able to sustain drives primarily on the ground and grind out an easy win on the backs of their running back duo and offensive line. Along that same line of thinking, the tributary scenario doesn’t necessarily involve the Browns failing as much as it involves them scoring all their touchdowns through the air (see: Week 7 2020, where Baker Mayfield threw only 28 passes but passed for 297 yards and five touchdowns against the Bengals). However unlikely, it is still within the realm of possibility and something to consider for my MME cadre.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY Mjohnson86 >>

• The offensive matchup for both teams will likely be much more difficult in Week 2 than it was in Week 1
• Both QBs had very good openers as the new starter for their respective teams, but coaches will have reason to “hide” them this week as long as it is close
• This game projects for a slower pace with neither team likely to open up a big lead early on

HOW New Orleans WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The game plan for the Saints this year is pretty clearly going to be less aggressive than they have been in past years, at least until Jameis Winston fully gains Sean Payton’s trust. While Winston had a very good Week 1, his fantasy points are misleading as he was averaging under 5 yards per attempt on 19 passes before a 55 yard TD against Packers backups in the 4th quarter. I would expect more of the same approach here with a heavy dose of rushes and short passes for the Saints. Their defense has a significant advantage at the line of scrimmage and the Saints will likely feel no reason to be overly aggressive and let Winston make mistakes early — instead relying on their defense to force mistakes from the Panthers and create short fields for Winston and the offense. The Panthers defense plays a very high rate of Cover-3 defense which limits big plays and forces things underneath. Payton will be aware of that and will likely be hesitant to let Jameis try to push the ball down the field without any big time downfield threats. This plays right into what the Saints would like to do, however, and they should be able to move the ball well — even if it is at a methodical pace.

HOW Carolina WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Carolina faces a big challenge in the Saints’ defensive front and will need to be ready for a big jump in competition after handling the lowly Jets in Week 1. Sam Darnold had a respectable opener, but the name of the game here will be protecting him against a defense that just made the reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers, and last year’s highest scoring offense look horrible. Expect a lot of pressure and exotic blitzes from the Saints as they attempt to make Darnold “see ghosts” as he did in his infamous Monday Night meltdown against the Patriots two years ago. A heavy dose of runs, screens, and short passes will be in order for the Panthers with their primary playmakers being given the ball in space. The Panthers should also look to use some creative concepts and play-action to try to keep the Saints somewhat on their heels and reduce the pressure they can bring. The Panthers will have limited opportunities due to the pace that the game is likely to play out with. If they are unable to run the ball effectively and have short possessions ending in punts early in the game, then they will likely turn more to short passing and try to find isolated matchups where they can move the ball through the air in a quick manner that doesn’t put Darnold under heavy pressure

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

Due to the nature of conservative attacks both teams are likely to employ, the game clock should move right along and limit possessions for both sides — making efficiency in the red zone and the turnover battle paramount in determining if this game is able to exceed expectations. If leaning one way, the Saints are more likely to get a multiple score lead and force the hand of the Panthers than the other way around. This is simply because the Saints have a better, more aggressive defense and also have one of the best offensive lines in football — so they should be able to run the ball more efficiently from the outset and not need to get more aggressive. 

All that being said, this game projects to play with a slower pace but that is a very fragile projection due to the history of mistakes that both QBs have had throughout their careers — which could quickly flip the game on its head — and the playmakers that each side has and the volume of touches those stars should see, giving them more opportunities to turn in a big play that can flip the switch on a game

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Fairly wide range of potential outcomes with respect to game flow here
• This means we need to be extremely careful how we deploy members from this game, ensuring players are entered into rosters with specific game flows in mind
• Xandamere’s “always one Viking” suggestion continues to carry merit in an absurdly concentrated offense
• Keep an eye on Minnesota’s personnel usage rates in this game, as they shifted to much heavier three and four wide receiver sets in Week 1, likely due to the lack of depth at the tight end position

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

We know by now that “how Minnesota will try to win a game,” and “how they might be forced to try and win a game” are very different ideas. The big picture is they are willing to open things up as required, dependent on game flow.

The new Kubiak-esque outside zone run scheme being built in Minnesota this season should enjoy further success as the season moves on. Transitioning an offense from a power-base run game to an outside zone scheme takes time and repetition, evidenced by the lack of success in their Week 1 game against the Bengals, a game in which running back Dalvin Cook averaged a measley 3.1 yards per carry. The weakness of this offensive line is on the inside, so until they are able to master the spread concepts of the outside zone run scheme, we are likely to see them struggle on the ground. Nothing has changed to start the year with respect to Dalvin Cook’s elite usage, who handled 29 of the 36 running back opportunities out of the backfield. The matchup is less than ideal, going against a formidable defensive line and running behind a weak offensive line; this matchup yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of just 3.2.

This game could take on an entirely different form in the case of Minnesota being forced to the air earlier than they would otherwise like. Over the previous three seasons, Kirk Cousins is the number one passer in the NFL against Cover-1 defensive formations, a formation the Cardinals used at the highest rate in the NFL in 2020. The success level through the air, or lack thereof, is likely to come down to protection up front against a strong Cardinals pass rush, but the lack of talent and primary coverage scheme from the Cardinals are liable to lead to explosive plays here. A week after relatively disappointing in the shadows of fellow wide receiver Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson sets up extremely well to take advantage of these defensive shortcomings from the Cardinals. A year after playing with three wide receivers on the field at a 38% clip (11, 20, and 02-personnel), the Vikings came out and ran three wide receiver sets a massive-for-them 66% of the time in Week 1, with a further 12% of snaps played with four wide receivers on the field. This led to KJ Osborn handling an 81% snap rate and nine targets, the same target total as Justin Jefferson. This is most likely a case of injuries and personnel departures of the tight end room, but something to monitor moving forward nonetheless.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals looked basically exactly the same on offense as they did in 2020 but now boast a formidable defensive line with the addition of JJ Watt to a line that already held All-Pro edge rusher Chandler Jones (five sacks in Week 1!!!). The team still holds a top ten run-blocking offensive line but a bottom ten offensive line when it comes to pass protection, which is somewhat mitigated by the rushing prowess of quarterback Kyler Murray. We should expect pace, a horizontally-spread offense, and a handful of downfield strikes per game through Christian Kirk and rookie wide receiver Rondale Moore. We broke down how the team is likely to enjoy improved downfield success rates in the offseason primer, which came to fruition in Week 1.

Week 1 showed us that not a whole lot has changed with respect to the run game for the Cardinals. Chase Edmonds and James Conner combined for 28 rush attempts and four targets with both backs seeing 16 running back opportunities, yet Kyler Murray scored the lone rushing touchdown. After finishing 2020 with a situation-neutral pass rate of 56%, the Cardinals went out and held a situation-neutral pass rate of 52% in their opener. The matchup yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of 4.7, a top five value on the week, but this remains a head-scratching backfield week-to-week. Expect more of the same here with “backup” James Conner charged with a straight-ahead power run role, and “starter” Chase Edmonds owning an outside-in zone read role with sparse pass game usage.

Lead wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins actually saw a slight uptick in average depth of target in Week 1 when compared to last season, ending the week with a value of 10.9 (a full two yards greater than 2020). Newcomer AJ Green took on more of a possession style, finishing with an average depth of target of 9.0. Christian Kirk maintained a downfield role (12.0), and rookie Rondale Moore was deployed to all depths of the field (his 4.4 aDOT doesn’t tell the whole story as far as his usage goes, and he even shook free on a broken play on third down in the second quarter for a long completion). The overall identity of this Cardinals’ pass game remains the same as what we saw last season, with a horizontally spread nature and sporadic downfield attempts. The secondary of the Vikings, with Breshaud Breeland and newcomer Patrick Peterson at corner, and Xavier Woods and Harrison Smith at safety, is well equipped to deal with the possession style of the perimeter receivers in this offense but should struggle to contain any deep passing.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

There’s an interesting dynamic to this game that gives a high level of uncertainty with respect to the likeliest game flow, in that we should expect Mike Zimmer’s defensive philosophy to revolve around stopping the run and forcing teams into longer down and distance to go situations, which is exactly how the Cardinals should be looking to attack here. That said, the largest influence on how this game plays out is likely to be the Cardinals’ level of success in downfield passing, particularly considering the Vikings’ struggles containing that area in their Week 1 matchup with the Bengals.

It is likeliest the Cardinals dictate the pace and tempo here via the aforementioned metrics. Basically, the Vikings would like to rely on their run game to open up the pass but are entirely capable and willing to turn to the air when required. If the Cardinals connect on a couple of downfield strikes, or are able to methodically move the chains to start the game, we could see this game turn into one of the bigger shootouts on the slate. The Vikings should be able to absolutely dismantle the heavy Cover-1 usage of the Cardinals if forced to the air early as Kirk Cousins has averaged a 123.6 passer rating over the previous three seasons against the Cardinals’ primary coverage scheme, which ranked first in the league over that span. Conversely, if the Vikings are able to control the line of scrimmage on either side, this game could disappoint from a box score perspective. The numbers and metrics tell us the former should be the likeliest case, but I want it to be clear that this game comes with a fairly wide range of potential outcomes, so ensure any exposure to this game is built with particular game scripts in mind.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Hilow >>

It is difficult to get overly excited about any single member of the Cardinals outside of Kyler Murray, meaning all of DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, Chase Edmonds, and James Conner carry wide ranges of outcomes due to the low expected concentration of opportunities. Naked Kyler always carries merit, but any pairing is almost akin to throwing darts blindly at a board full of confetti balloons. 

My primary interest comes from the Vikings side, as all of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and KJ Osborn carry some level of appeal, in that order for me. Justin Jefferson has the chance to absolutely feast if, and only if, the Vikings can keep Cousins upright long enough for his routes to develop. Adam Thielen carries the highest floor of non-Dalvin Cook players, while KJ Osborn is an interesting low-cost dart throw if his usage carries over from Week 1. Dalvin is likely to experience efficiency troubles once more, but the close to 30 expected running back opportunities really speaks for itself here.

Finally, the Cardinals defense has the chance to wreak havoc as far as pressure on the quarterback goes, so they are once again an appealing option this week (quick note there: if they are projected to carry substantial ownership, it is an extremely sharp take to look elsewhere and build primary rosters around this game shooting out).

JM >>

The Vikings’ implied team total is under 24, on a week in which 13 teams(!) have an implied total of 25 or higher. Their saving grace in this spot is the game environment, as an implied team total of 23.25 as an underdog tells us a different story than 23.25 as a favorite. The Vikings will likely be forced into an aggressive mindset as this one moves along, and with how concentrated this offense is, there’s upside to hunt for. Arizona’s defense ranked ninth in pass defense DVOA last year and 14th in rush defense (they’re no cupcake), and they play at a faster speed than Kirk Cousins’ arm. But the Vikings do enough things right, and enough should open up throughout this game, for some big plays to develop downfield. Any of the Big 3 on the Vikings could hit, but the highest likelihood of a ceiling game goes Jefferson > Thielen > Dalvin (though while Jefferson has a better shot at a ceiling game, Thielen carries a better chance of avoiding a dud; all of this was written before reading Hilow’s writeup, but basically echoes everything he said). None appear to be must plays, but as is almost always the case with this competent, enormously concentrated offense, there’s no reason to keep these guys away from “tighter player pool” consideration deep into the week.

Arizona, of course, is the team that will need to be responsible for creating the aforementioned game environment — and they should be happy to oblige. There will be some plays in this game where Kyler scrambles around and no one is open, but there’s also a good chance that some big plays develop downfield. Realize: this is the type of game in which a 75+-point final game total doesn’t fall too far outside the range of reasonable outcomes, and all of the Cardinals players are sharply priced on DK for their roughly-median game (that is, a game in which they win something like a 27-21 or 28-24 game, as Vegas is projecting). This means that in order for these players to contribute to a tourney-winning roster, they have to be in a higher-scoring game environment; and with how concentrated the Vikings’ offense is, a game in which Arizona is flying above their implied total is also a game in which one or two Vikings pieces are posting a DFS score in the range of “big” to “huge.” Put it all together, and I really don’t care which Arizona players I play (as noted already, there are no mispricings around the bunch, so understand the floor and ceiling that belongs to each respective price tag, but you could build around any of them that you want), so much as I care that I have a Vikings piece on any roster with an Arizona piece. (Because the Arizona offense is less concentrated, this doesn’t necessarily apply on the other side of the ball. You could conceivably get away with playing a Vikings piece on a roster with no one from Arizona. But even if you’re starting with the Vikings’ side, I’d say that if you’re going to bet on a piece from this game, you might as well maximize that bet in a spot with such obvious shootout upside.)

In summary:

Jefferson > Thielen > Dalvin

Literally any Arizona piece (with Hopkins > Kirk > Rondale > AJG the order in which I rank WR ceiling, and with Edmonds much likelier to hit than Conner), but with a rule of “include one Vikings piece if playing an Arizona piece.” Of course, a Kyler/Vikings-WR pairing tells an obviously-strong story, and will be low-owned enough as a combo that you could eliminate nearly all guesswork and just take this setup — with the value of adding an “ARI WR guess” to this roster increasing as you get into larger tourney fields.

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY Hilow >>

• A glaring example of a game that has a wide range of real-world outcomes
• With a setup like this, it is highest EV to either attack the game fully or fade it fully, with the additional knowledge that the field will not be entering many game stacks into play
• One of the rare cases where naked Brady is interesting as a leverage piece

HOW Atlanta WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Matt Ryan’s line in Week 1: 164 yards and no touchdowns. Calvin Ridley: 5/51/0 on eight targets. Kyle Pitts: 4/31/0 on eight targets. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I do this not to influence our own process, but rather to highlight how the field is likely reacting (or overreacting) to Week 1. We were drafting this offense as an uptempo, concentrated, and capable offense all offseason in Best Ball. Are we really about to allow one week to change our entire offseason process? I sure as hell am not. Okay, with that out of the way, let’s dig in! We saw my personnel usage call from this preseason ring true out of Atlanta in Week 1, although, as predicted, their personnel usage rates only tell half the story as rookie tight end Kyle Pitts was used all over the field. On paper, it says Atlanta ran 51% 12-personnel when in reality it was more akin to a spread 11-personnel alignment. Kyle Pitts saw a 61% snap rate in Week 1, with Hayden Hurst at 60%, Russell Gage at 68%, Calvin Ridley at 85%, and tertiary options all sitting around 7-29%. Look for this Arthur Smith-led offense to come out firing after a week filled with self-reflection.

The backfield was dominated by Mike Davis, who played a massive 75% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and saw a solid 21 running back opportunities in one of the worst game scripts he will see all season. That level of usage is one tier below elite, but we might have to wait until Week 5 against the Jets to truly capitalize on it, with matchups against the Buccaneers, Giants, and Football Team on tap over the next three weeks. Behind Davis, converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson saw a 35% snap rate and nine running back (?) opportunities, and Keith Smith mopped up some meaningless end of game snaps for five running back opportunities. The matchup is no beuno this week against a defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfield in 2020. Atlanta’s offensive line actually performed quite well in Week 1, inflating the net-adjusted line yards metric to a value of 4.37 yards. I won’t be going here, but nobody else will either.

Calvin Ridley saw a ridiculous 50.3% of the team’s available air yards with an average depth of target of 12.0 in Week 1. Yeah, the dude will be fine. Not the greatest matchup on paper on tap, but this is a guy that can beat any matchup as evidenced by his seventh-ranked average cushion in Week 1 of 6.86. If this offense puts up points against the Bucs, he will likely be a large reason why. Rookie “tight end” Kyle Pitts saw a 31.4% air yards share in Week 1 which ranked third amongst all tight ends. His average cushion created was 4.73, second in the league. He saw snaps inline (11), in the slot (20), and split wide (12). The largest problem for the Falcons in Week 1 was an offensive line that ranked above average in run-blocking metrics but allowed an unsightly 41% pressure rate, which was a problem for quarterback Matt Ryan all afternoon. With another high expected pressure rate on top for Week 2, look for Arthur Smith to adjust and get the ball out of Ryan’s hands quicker. The weakness of this Bucs defense over the last 20+ games has been over the middle of the field toward slot coverage Sean Murphy-Bunting, who landed on IR following the season opener. Ross Cockrell should step into the slot coverage after playing 86% of his snaps from the slot in Week 1. He is a 6’0” defensive back with 4.56 speed, 36^th percentile speed scores, 51^st percentile burst scores, and 11^th percentile agility scores. Russell Gage played 59% of his snaps from the slot in 2020 and started the year at a 51% slot snap rate and is an interesting option against the weakest part of the Buccaneers defense.

HOW Tampa Bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::

This is Brady’s world, we’re all just living in it. The Bucs showed us an ungodly 78% situation-neutral pass rate in Week 1, likely inflated due to the specific opponent’s propensity to put up points. Said another way, Arians likely kept his foot on the gas knowing full well the Cowboys could come back at any time. Although this is still a pass-heavy team, we’re likely to see a steady trickle-regression towards their 2020 rate of 62% as the season progresses. There’s not much else to say regarding how Tampa Bay will attempt to win games as literally nothing has changed for this team in almost a full calendar year.

Bruce Arians’ most recent quote surrounding this backfield was that any one of his three running backs could be “named” the starter, so take the vote of confidence he gave Ronald Jones this week by naming him the starter with a grain of salt. The truth is that all of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Giovani Bernard are going to be involved on a weekly basis, with the always present threat of the coaching staff riding the hot hand. The 4.45 net-adjusted line yards metric falls right in the middle of Week 2’s range, but the bigger hurdle to fantasy utility is the unknown weekly nature of the division of usage between these three backs.

As we saw in Week 1, any one (or two or three) of the pass-catchers from this offense can pop in any given game. All of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and the reincarnation of Rob Gronkowski offer sky-high ceilings each and every week. As we also saw in Week 1, Tom Brady is completely fine taking what an opposing defense gives him, evidenced by the sparse involvement of Mike Evans, who drew shadow coverage from Dallas’ only above average defender. I can’t imagine defensive coordinator Dean Pees blitzes Brady heavily in this spot (which would open up the middle of the field and the sidelines), which should mean a lot of zone coverages. Any one of the aforementioned four superstars can beat zone regularly, so consider this a high ceiling spot across the board, but one that comes with lower-than-perceived floor.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

The likeliest game flow will be completely driven by the Falcons’ ability to put points on the board. What I mean by that is this: regardless of the score on the scoreboard, we can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attack this game largely the same, but the Falcons will need to keep pressure on for their above average pass rate and pace of play to tickle the ungodly realm. The Falcons have the pieces to put points up in this setup, and I can all but guarantee the field will be light on game stacks from this game, so keep that in mind when building this week. If the Falcons flounder once more, the entire fantasy utility from this game fades as it likely limits the Buccaneers’ aerial aggression and instead filters additional work through a three-headed backfield

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Seattle boasts a mismatch in the trenches and is expected to utilize Chris Carson as a true workhorse
• The Seattle passing game is likely to go over-owned, relative to the likeliest scenario generated volume
• Although unlikely, a tributary game flow would involve the Titans jumping out to a large lead early, in which case nobody will be on a Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett/Derrick Henry game stack
• Not much to like from the Titans in the likeliest scenario outcome

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans ended Week 1’s contest with 36 pass attempts to just 22 rush attempts, but the underlying metrics paint a different picture. In that game, they held a situation-neutral pass rate of only 40%. The problem was the situation was not neutral for very long as the team was down 24-6 at half. In other words: how Tennessee will try to win games has not changed with the addition of Julio Jones. No, they are not likely to “let Tannehill cook” (okay, that’s not a thing). No, they are not going to force feed the ball to their two star wide receivers. We didn’t see play action from the Titans in Week 1 because, well, they couldn’t establish a baseline to run play action (play action at the lowest rate in the league in Week 1). What I saw out of their performance last week was poor situational play calling and poor execution on both sides of the ball. I saw unblocked edge rushers with a direct path to Tannehill off a bootleg. I saw heavy rush rates on early downs in the first half. I saw predictability and lack of execution on offense, along with miscommunications and poor positionings on defense. That is to be expected early in the year with a new coordinator on each side. But are those areas of the game plan likely to be corrected in the span of one week? Maybe. Unlikely, but maybe.

Tennesee left Week 1 with a lowly 3.40 adjusted line yards metric, but a lot of that feels misleading in the sense that they were never able to keep the Cardinals off balance (their bread and butter). Seattle ranked middle of the pack as far as adjusted line yards goes on defense in Week 1, ceding a value of 3.97 to the borderline elite Colts. Expect Seattle to again focus on doing what they can to eliminate the run after allowing a lowly 3.9 average yards per rush attempt in 2020, due in large part to the growth of nose tackle Poona Ford, whom the team recently signed to a lucrative extension. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle here as far as matchup is concerned, with Tennessee almost assuredly set to improve after their Week 1 fiasco, and Seattle well equipped to handle it. That said, Seattle allowed the sixth lowest second level yards to opposing running backs in 2020 at 1.06 per touch, meaning prototypical long Derrick Henry runs are that much more unlikely here.

We saw how much this Titans pass game efficiency revolves around play action in Week 1, with the team all but falling flat on their face in all aspects of their game plan. In another matchup that provides questions with respect to their ability to generate the rhythm on offense required for play action to be successful, it is hard to get overly excited about the pass game as a whole. That said, we know the kind of small sample efficiency both AJ Brown and Julio Jones possess. The chances of this game turning into a back-and-forth shootout are fairly low, meaning each (plus Ryan Tannehill) should only be utilized in game stacks that tell the story of Seattle jumping out to a large lead early.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Seattle showed us in Week 1 that they intend to snap back to a more balanced offense in 2021. Their 49% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 1 was sixth lowest, down from 60% in 2020. Their new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, came over from the Rams pass game coordinator position, where the team ranked 26^th in the NFL in 2020 in situation-neutral pass rate at 56%. The addition of tight end Gerald Everett also predictably showed up in their personnel usage rates, with the team running 12-personnel 38% of the time, the third highest rate in the league behind Atlanta (not really 12-personnel) and New England (obvious via their offseason personnel moves). Their 57% 11-personnel rate was down slightly from their season long average of 66% in 2020, even with the addition of rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge. So what does all this data tell us? It tells us we should expect a run-balanced offense moving forward.

One of the most surprising statistics (to me, at least) that I came across when researching games this week was the absolute domination of this Seahawks offensive line against a team that allowed only 3.76 running back yards per carry in 2020. Seattle generated the second highest adjusted line yards in Week 1 at 5.37, second only to the top run-blocking offensive line in 2020, the Browns. The 19 rushes by their running backs averaged 5.47 yards per carry, again, against the defense that finished fourth in the league in yards allowed per carry to opposing backfields in 2020! That is impressive stuff. Running back Chris Carson saw 19 of the 23 available running back opportunities for the Seahawks in Week 1 and backup running back Rashaad Penny is expected to miss Week 2. Tennessee, on the other hand, finished Week 1 with the 24^th ranked adjusted line yards metric on defense at 4.67, leading to a net-adjusted line yards metric of 5.02. For comparison sake, an over 5.0 net-adjusted line yards metric happened about once every week on average in 2020 across the entire NFL (it just happens to be the second-ranked net-adjusted line yards metric for Week 2 behind the otherworldly Browns). The Seahawks left Week 1 with two red zone rush attempts and two red zone pass attempts, something that could be a telling statistic after the Rams attempted a whopping 81 running back rush attempts in the red zone last season. For comparison, Josh Jacobs led the league in red zone rush attempts in 2020 at 64. Those same Rams running backs combined for 54 total green zone rushing attempts in 2020, with Josh Jacobs again leading the way from an individual player at 35. Will this be a trend or statistical noise moving forward for Seattle? No idea, but I sure as hell am going to be early on it if it turns out to be the new norm.

Not much has changed with respect to Seattle’s pass game other than a potential dip to weekly expected pass attempts (in neutral to positive game scripts). This is still an offense expected to be highly efficient through the air with the trio of Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf and Lockett both played on over 85% of their team’s Week 1 snaps, with both Gerald Everett and Will Dissly trailing them slightly at 72% and 70%, respectively. The matchup is a good one against a team playing with five new starters on the defensive side of the ball, with a new defensive coordinator at the helm. We also know that Seattle will continue attacking the intermediate to deep areas of the field when they do throw, areas the Titans expectedly struggled with in Week 1. Consider all pass-catchers “bet on efficiency” plays that are likely to garner increased ownership this week.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likeliest game flow involves the Seahawks winning early on both sides of the ball and controlling the pace and tempo of the game. Chris Carson has room for 20-24 running back opportunities in this case and is highly appealing from a leverage and Game Theoretic standpoint with the main ownership from the Seahawks expected to come from the pass game. It is likely the Titans focus their time and efforts this week on cleaning up the execution errors and lack of dynamic play-calling, which should keep this game closer for longer than what we saw out of this team in Week 1. In all, the field is likely to understate the significance of this game’s lofty game total, and more specifically, Seattle’s lofty team total. Although unlikely (which means it doesn’t warrant a full tributaries write up), if the Titans somehow jump out to a multi-score lead early, this game could turn into one of the week’s “had to have it” games, and nobody will be on a tributary game stack.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

BY HILOW >>

• Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Keenan Allen set up well for additional targets
• Many will look to Cedrick Wilson as a possible salary-saver, but I am much more interested in Jaylen Guyton from the other side if searching for blowup potential at a low price and low ownership
• Both primary running backs bring massive question marks (expected usage for Ezekiel Elliott, and seemingly out of nowhere lack of pass game usage for Austin Ekeler)
• Both tight end stables feature split work and non-bankable volume

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Dallas’ overall offensive philosophy remains consistent in 2021 when compared to early 2020, the last time quarterback Dak Prescott was healthy. We should continue to expect an elevated pace of play and elevated pass rates as the norm under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore moving forward. The biggest thing we need to understand about this offense, however, is the fact that Moore is entirely willing and able to turn “elevated pass rates” into “extreme pass rates” in negative game scripts, as evidenced by Week 4 of 2020 and Week 1 of 2021. The overall pass rates for Dallas in the first four games of 2020 were 67.7%, which jumped to 76.62% and 76.32% in Week 1 of 2021 and Week 4 of 2020, respectively – both games that Dallas fell behind early. The Cowboys also increased their 12-personnel rates significantly to start the season, running two tight end sets a massive 35% of the time in Week 1 (in 11-personnel only 49% of the time – likely due to OL/DL mismatch against Tampa Bay, but things don’t get easier this week). When evaluating how the Cowboys are likeliest to try and win here, we must take the multitude of injuries (and suspensions) this team has experienced yet again early in the season. Standout offensive lineman La’el Collins was suspended for six games for failure to appear for a league drug test, wide receiver Michael Gallup was placed on IR after Week 1, defensive end Demarcus Lawrence injured his foot in practice and it is reportedly of the “long-term” variety, and cornerback Kelvin Joseph and defensive tackle Neville Gallimore are both out with long-term injuries.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott is still a top-five running back, at least as far as snap rate and running back opportunity are concerned. We saw him flounder last season after Prescott was lost for the year, while the team also dealt with numerous injuries along the offensive line. This season, La’el Collins will miss the next third of the season and the Cowboys’ defense seemingly got worse, indicating a situation where they should be forced into more aerial aggression over the coming six weeks than they would otherwise like. That said, All-Pro guard Zack Martin returns for Week 2 after missing the season opener on the COVID list. The matchup on the ground for this one is also less than ideal. Opposing defensive tackle Linval Joseph is one of PFF’s top-rated run-stoppers over the previous three seasons and the Chargers are fresh off a stifling performance against fellow borderline-elite-usage running back Antonio Gibson, giving up only 4.17 yards per running back opportunity (23 carries and seven targets). In all, this is definitely not a “get-right” spot for Mr. Elliott.

We should see the inflated 12-personnel rates continue into Week 2 after perimeter wide receiver Michael Gallup suffered a calf injury in Week 1, who was subsequently placed on IR. This should spell additional snaps for Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown, and Simi Fehoko, likely in that order. The overall setup for the Cowboys’ pass game expectation points to primarily short-intermediate routes through Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and the tight ends (Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin) as the Chargers look to allow their vaunted pass rush to create organic pressure without the need for elevated blitz rates, allowing their second level to settle into complex zone assignments. Consider both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb favorites to end the week amongst the top five wide receivers in targets.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi’s offense appeared similar to how it did from his time in New Orleans as the quarterbacks coach, with heavy utilization of the “X” receiver (Mike Williams) and power run scheme, but he carried over the high pace of play from the 2020 Chargers team. The most surprising aspect of the Week 1 usage was the zero targets for running back Austin Ekeler, who is not best utilized as a power back. That usage contradicts Lombardi’s public statements this offseason which indicated his desire to maximize the talent available (which would be getting the ball to Ekeler out of the backfield in space). Finally, a whopping 33 of Herbert’s 47 pass attempts in Week 1 flowed through three primary players: Keenan Allen (13), Mike Williams (12), and Jared Cook (8). If that usage continues, all three should be considered weekly in what would be a highly concentrated passing attack.

The power run game filtered primarily through Austin Ekeler, but he only out-touched backup Larry Rountree III 15 to 8. Furthermore, all Chargers running backs saw a grand total of ONE target in the passing game in Week 1 (which went to third stringer Justin Jackson), which absolutely nobody would have predicted. The matchup is a good one on the ground (contrary to last week against the Football Team), so there is a chance Lombardi dials up more usage for these backs, but a bet on this backfield is exactly that – a bet on usage and scheme changing from Week 1. The running back snap rate for Week 1 broke down to 58% for Ekeler, 27% for Roundtree III, and 14% for Jackson. Without the typical usage through the air for Ekeler, he is relegated to “yardage and touchdown back” status and would require the bonus and multiple trips to the end zone for utility.

Things get interesting when dissecting this passing attack. Both starting defensive ends will be out for Dallas after Demarcus Lawrence suffered a broken foot in Wednesday’s practice. Coupled with a now top of the league pass blocking offensive line for the Chargers, and Herbert should have all the time in the world to pick the secondary apart. It will be interesting to see how Dallas chooses to deploy cornerback Trevon Diggs in coverage, who is really the only member of their secondary considered above average in coverage (and is fresh off a game in which he shut down Mike Evans, primarily due to sticky coverage). Either way, the heavy slot snap rate for Keenan Allen and likely coverage by Anthony Brown when on the perimeter lead to plus matchups. The tight end snap rates played out as predicted leading into the season in Week 1, with aging Jared Cook seeing the field for 58% of the team’s offensive snaps and physical specimen Donald Parham seeing the field for 51% of the team’s offensive snaps. That led to eight targets for Cook and only one for Parham, but the usage is suspect at best. Jaylen Guyton actually ran the third most routes for the Chargers in Week 1 at 35 (only 30 for Jared Cook), who appears entrenched in the WR3 role (rookie Josh Palmer saw only 14 offensive snaps and ran only eight total routes). Finally, if ever there were a matchup for Ekeler’s targets to increase, this would be it. If they fail to bump in this spot, we might have to accept a low pass game role moving forward.

LIKELIST GAME FLOW :: 

We have an interesting case where we’re likely to see the Chargers dictate the actual game flow while the Cowboys dictate the overall pace. What I mean by that is this: Dallas is likeliest to force an uptempo game through elevated pass rates to the short and intermediate areas of the field while Los Angeles is likeliest to force varying game flows based on their success on both sides of the ball to start the game. Either way, the avenues each team is likeliest to attack here remain constant whether the game scripts plays to a slugfest (highly unlikely), a shootout, or the Chargers taking and holding an early lead. The only game flow that alters how each team is likeliest to attack would be one in which the Cowboys jump out to a multi-score lead, which is highly unlikely here. This gives us a high confidence scenario for the top plays from the game.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Xandamere’s Showdown Slant

Week 2 comes to a close as the Lions visit the Packers for a 48.5 total game with Green Bay favored by a whopping 11.5. The Detroit defense is pretty hapless, which we saw play out in week 1 against San Francisco. Their offense at least showed up in Week 1, whereas the Packers just looked completely lifeless on both sides of the ball. It’s just a one-game sample and we can see Vegas isn’t really taking anything away from it with how they’ve laid odds on this game.

Click For Xandamere’s FanDuel Single-Game Course

A legit *must-read* if your purpose for playing DFS is to make money
Don’t typically play on FanDuel?
Exactly!

Green Bay

The first thing to note is our snap counts for the Packers are going to look a little wonky since they pulled their starters in the 4th quarter. Aaron Rodgers only played 74% of the snaps. Aaron Jones played 49%, Davante Adams 70%, Allen Lazard 68%, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 63%, and Robert Tonyan 49%. If you figure none of the starters really played much in the 4th, that tells us that the WR trio of Adams, Lazard, and MVS were basically full-time players while Jones and Tonyan were on pace for something like 65-70% of the snaps.

In the run game, we should expect to see Aaron Jones with the lion’s share of the work (get it? because they’re playing the Lions? ha, ha, ha). This matchup favors Jones and we saw him go absolutely nuclear against Detroit in Week 2 of last year (helped, of course, by Adams getting hurt midway through the game). His workload is not as secure as the very top tier of backs as Green Bay is still going to mix in AJ Dillon. But, as long as the Packers don’t get blown out again, he should have a path to at least 18 running back opportunities, including a solid passing game role, with upside for more. As a massive home favorite in a good rushing matchup with a 3rd down/passing game role, Jones checks almost every box, with the only one missing being “primary goal-line back.” That one we just don’t know at this point in the season (because the Packers haven’t gotten to the goal line). Dillon could be favored there in the classic “bigger back that comes in to vulture the touchdowns” role that has plagued so many top RBs – and DFS players – throughout the years. That’s just a minor note of caution, though, as Jones is a very strong play. Dillon’s a great play at just $3k as well and as massive home favorites I’d be comfortable rolling them out together. Rookie Kylin Hill saw the field in Week 1, but almost certainly only due to the blowout, as he didn’t see his first touch until Rodgers and the rest of the starters were pulled. You can include him as a deep MME punt play.

In the passing game, the most interesting takeaway from Week 1 is that Randall Cobb was not signed to resume his old full time slot receiver role as he played just 26% of the snaps and saw one target. It is possible that this changes (he was signed fairly close to the season, after all), but my guess is that at this point in his career, Green Bay views him as more of a capable veteran backup, though the role could grow if Lazard or MVS struggle. Davante Adams is, of course, the king of this offense. He’s a near-lock for double-digit targets every game and Rodgers looks his way in the red zone. I’d take Rodgers over Adams for floor, but it’s close, and Adams definitely has a higher ceiling. Nothing more to say about one of the best receivers in the NFL. In a dreamy matchup, MVS and Lazard are both also in play. It’s worth noting that MVS saw eight targets in Week 1, though he only caught three of them. They also weren’t pure deep passes, which is the role we mostly saw him in last year. After a hype-filled preseason, MVS is one of my favorite plays in this game for tournaments. We know he can take one to the house from anywhere, and if his route tree is going to be diversified, that just adds some floor to his already strong ceiling. My take here is Adams, MVS, and Lazard are the starters and I would rank their attractiveness in that order, with Cobb as the most involved backup. Amari Rodgers and Malik Taylor saw the field in the Week 1 blowout but are not likely to be very involved in competitive games and belong just as MME dart throws. At tight end, Robert Tonyan was on pace for a close to full-time role, something that largely eluded him in 2020 when he only exceeded 70% of the snaps once. He was on pace for a bit more than his 2020 average, which is a good sign for his fantasy utility. Keep in mind that a tremendous amount of Tonyan’s 2020 value came from A) his absolutely absurd catch rate (52 of 59 targets!) and B) 11 freaking touchdowns (tied for 5th in the league!). He got by on modest volume with absolutely unearthly efficiency, and over the course of the season, I would bet for that to regress if his volume doesn’t increase significantly. In a single-game sample, of course, he’s a pretty decent bet for a touchdown as he seems to sniff the end zone with amazing regularity. Marcedes Lewis is a blocking tight end who can be thrown in as a punt play (he did score three touchdowns last year).

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Detroit

Showdown Slants are for OWS Week, OWS Annual, and Inner Circle members only

On the Detroit side, we have a backfield split in which both running backs absolutely smashed in Week 1, with a whopping 20 passing targets between them (out of 57 dropbacks, thus 35% of Jared Goff’s noodly-armed throws went to his RBs). Volume should be pretty dependable for them in this offense as Goff seems completely incapable of throwing more than 10 yards downfield, which often leaves him looking at his running backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. Despite the nearly even count of running back opportunities with 22 for D’Andre Swift against 18 for Jamaal Williams, Swift played almost twice as many snaps, so Williams’ production could be viewed as something of a mirage. Based on how often he was on the field, Williams is overpriced for his likeliest range of outcomes, though he can still be considered in tournament play. Swift’s receiving role makes him effectively game script immune, and he is my favorite overall Detroit play on the board.

The Lions passing game is in a bit of chaos right now. Expected WR1 Tyrell Williams is out with a concussion. Kalif Raymond led the WR group in snaps in Week 1, but he popped up on the Saturday injury report, which is never a good sign. At the end of the day, I kind of lump all of the Detroit wide receivers together a bit, as these are mostly either kind of no-name guys or young guys who have yet to really make an impression on the league. The starting receiver trio is going to be some combination of Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trinity Benson, Quintez Cephus, and perhaps Khadarel Hodge if Raymond is out. I don’t have a great way to separate them (and would be interested if any industrious reader does!). All of these guys are getting dumped into the player pool, of course, because they’re going to be on the field a lot, but it’s notable that in a Week 1 when Jared Goff attempted 57 passes, the “leading” wide receiver was Quintez Cephus with a line of 3/12/1 on six targets. I would guess that St. Brown is the most talented of the group, but receiver talent only matters so much if your quarterback doesn’t throw to you. They’re all viable in tournaments. I don’t really want to trust any of them in cash games, but if you want to use the Rodgers/Adams/Jones trio, you’re going to need some value. If that’s the route you go in cash I think you can plug in whoever fits and hope for the best. Good luck sorting this mess out. But wait, I’m missing the actual top receiver in the Lions offense, which is tight end T.J. Hockenson. A monster week 1 has led to him being priced where we’re used to only seeing the league’s very top tight ends, but perhaps with Goff targeting him so heavily, this is his year to join those ranks. He certainly looked the part against San Francisco and is a premium play in this one who I actually expect will get somewhat modest ownership, as the field is likely to prioritize the three main Packers. He’s a great play, and you can throw his fellow tight end Darren Fells into your punt player pool as well.

Outlook

The way this game is likely to play out is for the Packers to come out with a vengeance and smash the hapless Lions. Detroit just doesn’t have anything that can stop the Green Bay offense when it’s firing on all cylinders, and Goff can’t keep up in a shootout. Green Bay should be able to attack how they want to in this one, and after an absolutely embarrassing Week 1 defeat, look for them to try and get back on track with a convincing win. Or, at least, that’s how it SHOULD play out, but there are always some other options…

• The most likely tributary is for the Lions to fail to hit their modest team total as a furious Packers team absolutely trounces them. This would, of course, make Green Bay onslaught lineups entirely viable.
• But wait….what if the Packers offense, for whatever reason, just isn’t as good as it was last season? Rodgers is a year older, maybe he’s pissed at the team for the contract/draft situation…who knows. This is awfully unlikely (and don’t tell my boss at my day job I said this, because she’s a HUGE Packers fan), but maybe the Packers fall flat yet again, just as they did in Week 1. I don’t see a complete stomping as a realistic outcome, as the Lions defense is a far cry from the Saints, but what if something is fundamentally broken in the Green Bay offense right now?
• Alternately, what if the Packers offense does just fine, but Goff CAN keep up? After all, the Lions put up 33 against San Francisco last week. He got it done on dinks and dunks, but Goff led them on successful drive after successful drive despite a pick-six. Could we potentially see a shootout here?

Cash Games

I’m still debating my cash game pool. Rodgers is obviously at the top of it, but I have to decide if I want to play both QBs (as I normally try to do) or go heavy on the Green Bay side with Jones and Adams. I’m leaning towards the latter. Also in the pool are Swift, Dillon, Crosby, and then perhaps a cheap Lion receiver – basically whichever fits the build is “fine.”

Tournaments

In tournaments, my favorite captains are, perhaps unsurprisingly, Adams and Jones, with Swift, Hockenson, and MVS also in strong consideration.

Some groups to consider

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
• Pair captain QBs with at least 2 pass catchers
• At most 2 Lions wide receivers (and I wouldn’t really argue if you used at most 1 here, as wide receivers are not the best way to attack the Packers and that isn’t where the talent of the Detroit offense lies)
• At most 2 of MVS, Lazard, and Cobb