Game Overview ::
By MJohnson86 >>
- San Francisco had many positives from their season opening win, but also showed some issues that a better opponent may expose
- Both teams will face more resistance at the line of scrimmage than they faced Week 1
- From a “matchup” perspective, both teams had close to as optimal of a situation as they could ask for to start the season
- These teams were predictable, albeit with a spread the wealth approach, when playing while in control of the game; if one team takes a substantial lead here, how they react will be less predictable or certain
How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::
The 49ers will attempt to control this game at the line of scrimmage and put Jimmy Garropolo in manageable situations throughout the game. The reduced playing time of Brandon Aiyuk and the season-ending injury of Raheem Mostert significantly alter the makeup of the San Francisco offense from a playmaking standpoint. With Mostert out and rookie Trey Sermon in, it is anyone’s guess how the backfield touches will be deployed. The Eagles are historically above average against TEs and after watching Week 1 will likely be prepared to give extra attention to Deebo Samuel. This has the feeling of a bit of a standoff as the Eagles are unlikely to get torched by any specific SF player but also are unlikely to completely shut down any specific avenue for production.
The 49ers will likely attempt to assert themselves on the ground and use play-action or other means of misdirection to create advantages early against an aggressive Eagles defense. In an ideal world, their defense will contain the Eagles and they will sustain methodical, efficient drives and punctuate them with touchdowns. While this outcome is far from a certainty, the 49ers are well coached and have a veteran heavy roster that could execute at a high level and take control early.
How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles have what appears to be a franchise cornerstone QB, top 5 offensive line, and speedy playmakers at the skill positions. Jalen Hurts gives them a chance to win any game with his dynamic playmaking ability and what he has shown to be above average decision making. With dynamic playmaker Miles Sanders and explosive rookie Kenny Gainwell in the backfield, the Eagles will stretch opposing defenses horizontally and force them to respect many different run game concepts from the opening kick. The Eagles also have a variety of weapons in the pass game in their dependable and playmaking TEs in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, as well as a trio of playmaking WRs in Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins. I would expect many read-option type of looks early from the Eagles, as well as some play-action or double-move type of shot plays that attempt to exploit an aggressive 49ers defense. The 49ers gave up 33 points to the Lions who were led by Jared Goff in Week 1; while I expect them to perform better in a more competitive game, it is worth noting that they had many flaws against a talent deficient offense and the Eagles are much more likely to exploit any deficiencies from the start.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Both teams are likely to sustain drives but encounter difficulty turning those drives into a large number of points. The likeliest game flow is the Eagles controlling the line of scrimmage on the offensive side and moving the ball consistently (as the Lions were able to do when they provided adequate protection for Goff). The 49ers are likely to turn to their run game and play action as a means to protect Garoppolo in this spot. While Kyle Shanahan has a pissing match with his possible superstar WR, Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers may struggle to move the ball early in the game. The reality is that, as great of an offensive mind as Shanahan is, the 49ers can’t just move one of their best players into a part-time role and expect to move the ball consistently against a respectable defense. In this scenario, the 49ers will likely be spreading their rushes between two or three running backs while trying to get the ball out of Jimmy G’s hands quickly on passing plays to Deebo and George Kittle (or a plethora of other “meh” skill position players). On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are likely to test and stretch the 49ers defense horizontally first with misdirection and read-option concepts and then vertically with shot plays to their elite speed options.
This should be a competitive game throughout. Both teams are well coached and have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to keep the game from getting out of hand either way. Meanwhile, neither team is likely to completely abandon their identity (rushes and short passes followed by YAC) at any point before the 4th quarter unless somehow they are facing an extreme deficit.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Dwprix >>
- Total as of Tuesday evening is the 5th highest on the slate and has risen 2 pts from 48 to 50
- The line has moved a half pt towards the 49ers (3 to 3.5)
- Wk 1 PHI was a 3.5 pt dog & won by 26.
- Kyle Shanahan and Doug Pederson have faced each other twice as HC, Pederson is 2-0.
- The most recent game between these two was last season, the Eagles winning on the road 25-20
- In 55 offensive snaps last wk (26th), SF scored 34 pts (Def had one TD)
- In 25 first half snaps, SF scored 28 pts.
- PHI ran 67 offensive plays, scoring 32 pts
- Wk 1 Snap %: Garoppolo-93% // Lance-7%
- In 33 career starts, Garoppolo has just 6 300+ yd game, one of which came last week
- Garoppolo is now 23-8 as a starter for SF
- His T2T (2.3 sec) was the 2nd fastest of all QBs Wk1, only Ben Roethlisberger got the ball out quicker
- His yds/pass (12.6) led the league last wk
- Raheem Mostert played four snaps before being injured and is done for the season
- 3rd rd rookie Trey Sermon was announced as a surprise inactive prior to kickoff
- 6th rd rookie Elijah Mitchell was active instead. Shanahan said Sermon was a little ahead of Mitchell coming when camp was finished, partly due to injury.
- Wk 1 Snap %: Mitchell-64% // JaMycal Hasty-29%
- Rush att %: Mitchell-69% (19 carries) // Hasty-4% (1 carry)
- Mitchell: 19:104:1TD
- Wk 1 Snap %: Samuel-84% // Trent Sherfield-49% // Brandon Aiyuk-47% // Mohamed Sanu-36% // Jauan Jennings-11%
Beat writers believe Aiyuk might be in Shanahan’s doghouse
- Deebo Samuel received 53% of the targets (12) Wk 1 going 9:189:1TD
- SF ran 11 personnel (3 WRs) just 36% of the time. Only HOU, ATL, and ARZ were lower
- They ran 21 personnel (2 WRs, 2 RBs) 29% of the time, most in the league
- Kittle went 4:78 on 5 targets in Week 1
- PHI ranked 23rd last season giving up 13.8 DK pts/g
- Wk 1 PHI gave 13.9 DK pts on 12 targets but held Kyle Pitts in check giving up just 4:31 yds
- In five career starts, Hurts has avg 26.94 DK pts/game
- Two of those games have exceeded 300 pass yds
- Hurts DK pts: 28.76 // 23.28 // 40.82 // 24.58 // 17.3
- Rush attempts by game (most recent 1st): 7 // 8 // 9 // 11 // 18
- SF had 31 pressures on 71 pass plays with 3 sacks.
- Hurts had the 6th longest time to throw of all QBs last week.
- Wk 1 Snap %: Miles Sanders-66% // Kenneth Gainwell- 35%
- Sanders and Gainwell were the only RBs to see the field, Boston Scott saw 0 offensive snaps
- Sanders has 14+ digit rush attempts in 6 straight games: 15 // 14 // 15 // 17 // 14
- He’s also been targeted a good amount: 5 // 5 // 6 // 2 // 5
- Gainwell had 3 tgs last week
- In a game in which they were leading the entire time (besides ATL’s 1st drive), PHI still ran 11 personnel (3 WRs) 59% of the time
- Snap %: DeVonta Smith-87% // Jalen Reagor-70% // Quez Watkins-48% // JJ Whiteside-23% // Greg Ward-23%
- SF lost starting corner Jason Verett for the season last week
- Wk 1 Snap %: Dallas Goedert-73% // Zach Ertz-58% // Jack Stoll-17%
- Goedert: 5 tgs // Ertz: 2 tgs