- This is likely to be a run-oriented affair between two teams that want to grind out wins
- Montgomery and Mixon both have game scripts that lead to 30 touch games
- The Bengals could choose to attack the Bears weak secondary
- All the key players in this game are affordable and likely to be low owned
How Cincinnati Will Try to Win ::
The Bengals are coming off a dramatic win in which they barely held off a surging Vikings team to escape with a three-point overtime victory. Surprisingly, Joe Burrow attempted only 27 passes, compared to 36 team carries. Part of that was due to game flow, but the game was never out of hand, and this type of approach might just be the way the Bengals want to attack this season.
The relative weakness of the Bears defense is their secondary. They boast a strong front seven, with one of the best pass rushers in the game in Kahlil Mack. Did the Bengals pound the ball against the Vikings to expose the relative weakness of the Vikings run defense? Or did they pound the ball against the Vikings because that’s the way the Bengals want to play this year? Week 2 should give us a lot of insight into this question, but given Joe Burrow’s injury last year, I suspect the Bengals want to ride their ground game until forced to give it up.
Through the air, Burrow will have the best matchup against Chicago’s suspect CBs that Stafford just lit up for 321 yards and three TDs. If the Bengals attack through the air, Burrow is set up for success in a game where the Bears’ secondary will be overmatched against the Bengals’ weapons. The Bears simply don’t have the personnel to cover Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd.
How Chicago Will Try to Win ::
The Bears threw the ball 40 times in Week 1 against 26 team carries. This should be taken with a grain of salt, however, because the game flow forced the Bears to turn much pass heavier than they would ideally like to play. Matt Nagy hasn’t always been the best coach, but he’s not foolish enough to think the way to win games is through Andy Dalton. When will we see Justin Fields? No one really knows, but it could happen any play.
The Bears preferred method of attack is on the ground, where they’ll look to feed David Montgomery for as long as the game is competitive. The Bears are sitting as three-point home favorites, so there is a much better chance this game stays competitive than their Week 1 contest. Montgomery was featured in Week 1 (16 carries), but Damien Williams also received a notable six carries. That split might have been due to game flow, but it’s something to keep an eye on and shows that in negative game scripts, Montgomery might lose work. Expect the Bears to give Montgomery every opportunity to exploit the soft underbelly of the Bengals’ defense.
When the Bears take to the air, they’ll be attacking the relative “strength” of the Bengals’ defense. The Bengals’ secondary is only a “strength” compared to how bad they are against the run. Admittedly, the Bengals’ run defense surprised in Week 1, holding Dalvin Cook to a meager 3.1 YPC. Maybe the Bengals’ front seven will be better than expected. A one-game sample is too small to change their season outlook, so as of now, continue to consider them a weak unit. None of the Bears pass catchers have a difficult matchup. The biggest obstacle to their success is the Bears preferred method of attack and volume concerns for everyone other than Allen Robinson.
Most Likely Game Flow ::
This game has one of the lower totals on the slate at only 45 points. However, it’s expected to be a competitive contest with the Bears as three-point home favorites. The most likely game flow is a grind-it-out affair, with both teams preferring to lean on their running games for as long as possible. There is very little chance the Bears stray from a run-oriented, hide Andy Dalton approach. If this game stays close, the Bears will keep trying to run their way to a victory.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Alex88 >>
- As Offensive Coordinator of the 2015 Miami Dolphins, or 2 full seasons as the Bengals Head Coach, Zac Taylor’s offense has never finished a season ranked higher than 27th in points scored or 26th in yardage.
- Including Week 1, Taylor’s HC record is 7-25-1
- As Offensive Coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs (under Andy Reid’s tutelage), Matt Nagy’s offense ranked sixth in points and fifth in yardage. As Head Coach for the Chicago Bears, Nagy’s offense finished ninth in points his first season, and then no higher than 22nd & never once cracked the Top 20 in yardage
- Including Week 1, Nagy’s HC record is 28-21
- After Week 1, the Bears defense is ranked 32nd by PFF
- The Bears just allowed Matthew Stafford to set the all time record for QB Rating in a debut performance
- In Joe Burrow’s starts last season, the Bengals were the NFL’s worst first down passing offense, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt and a 48% success rate
- In Week 1 against Minnesota, they were first in success rate at 89%, averaging 15.6 yards per attempt
- Week 1’s Matchups showed that the Bengals last season used 11 personnel on 79% of Burrow’s first down plays but achieved better metrics out of 12 personnel. Their Week 1 opponent, the Vikings, faced 12 personnel on only 15.6% of snaps, but allowed a high success rate last year
- In Week 1 against Minnesota, Cincinnati used 12 personnel at a 41% rate on first down
- Burrow’s stat line for Week 1: 20/27-261-2, good for 18.6 DK points
- Burrow’s DK points in games with less than 48 points scored: 17.3 // 23.4 // 6.3 // 12.5 // 12.3
CIN Pass Catchers
- The Bengals used 3 WRs on 82% of their snaps, second highest in the league last season
- In Week 1, with a healthy Joe Mixon, that dropped to 65%
- The Bengals targeted WRs 69% of the time last year, fifth highest rate in the league
- In Week 1, that rate was at 73.1%, tied for fifth
- In an overtime victory, rookie Ja’Marr Chase paced the team in targets with seven and a team target share of 25.9%
- Ja’Marr caught five receptions for 101 yards and 1 TD, good for 23.9 DK points
- His 16.3 ADoT & 7.4 YAC/rec led the WRs
- Tyler Boyd averaged 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 56.1 yards per game last season
- Boyd ran 84.2% of his routes from the slot
- In Week 1, Boyd caught three passes on four targets for 32 yards. He ran 82.1% of his routes from the slot
- Boyd’s DK totals last year, in games with less than 48 points scored: 7.3 // 25.5 // 8.2 // 10.1 // 17.5 // 4.5 // 14.2 // 9.3 // 2.2
- As a rookie, Tee Higgins averaged 6.75 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 56.8 yards per game in 2020
- In Week 1, Higgins caught four receptions on five targets for 58 yards and a TD
- Higgins DK points in games with less than 48 points: 21 // 10.2 // 26.5 // 5.6 // 15.4 // 10.6 // 9.9 // 6.1 // 21.9
- Bengals were 28th in the NFL in TE targets last season
- In Week 1, CJ Uzomah had 2 targets. He caught both for 35 total yards
- Mixon missed the last 10 games of the 2020 season due to a foot injury, but prior to that he led the NFL in most touches for RBs, and was second in touches per game at 23.2
- In Week 1, he led the NFL in touches at the position with 33
- That led to 29 rushing attempts for 127 yards and 1 TD & four receptions on four targets for 23 yards, for a total of 28
- His DK point totals in road losses under the current coaching regime, with at least 50% snaps: 17.4 // 10.3 // 17.7 // 17.3 // 30.6 // 12.6 // 8.5 (tie) // 15.4 // 14.9
- Taylor’s Bengals have zero road wins in which Mixon played over 50% of the snaps
- The Bears received a 57.2 run defense grade from PFF for Week 1
CHI Passing Attack
- The Bears let rookie first round draft pick, Justin Fields, on the field for 5 total snaps
- He went 2 for 2 in passing for 10 yards & rushed in a score, good for 6.7 DK points
- His passer rating was 87.5, time to throw just 1.75 seconds
- Andy Dalton played on 64 snaps
- He had 27 completions on 38 attempts for 206 yards and an INT & two rushes for 13 yards, totaling 7.5 DK points
- In Week 1, Kirk Cousins produced 25 DK points in an overtime loss against the Bengals
- He had Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, & Adam Thielen as primary weapons
- Dalton/Fields have David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, & Darnell Mooney
- Robinson led Chicago in targets in Week 1, with 10
- He caught six balls for 35 yards, only 9.5 points
- Justin Jefferson managed 12.5 points as a road favorite
- Darnell Mooney had five receptions on 7 targets for 26 yards, just 7.6 DK points
- Mooney played on 100% of offensive snaps
- Marquise Goodwin led the team in yards per target in Week 1. He finished with four catches on four targets for 45 yards, and lost yardage on a run to end with 8.3 DK points
- Damiere Byrd had the lowest ADoT among WRs/TEs with 3.67. He finished with three catches on three targets for 19 yards, 4.9 points
- Cole Kmet was the only TE to play on 25%+ of snaps. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 42 yards, 9.2 points
- David Montgomery played on 59.4% of snaps, which led to 17 touches
- His 16 attempts went for 108 yards and a score, plus he caught his lone target for 10 yards
- Montgomery’s 21.8 DK points finished 8th among the position
- In this same matchup, Dalvin Cook scored 22.4 points in an overtime, road loss
- Newcomer Damien Williams played on 43.5% of snaps, totaling 10 touches
- He had 6 attempts for only 12 yards but added 4 receptions on 5 targets for 28 yards
- Damien finished with 8 DK points
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.