Kickoff Sunday, Sep 19th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
25.75) at

Dolphins (
22.25)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
7th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
18th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
22nd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
8th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
7th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
28th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY MJohnson86 >>
  • Buffalo is coming off of a disappointing home loss and flat offensive showing to start their season.
  • Miami is coming off of a big road win to start their season.
  • Both teams are better positioned this week for offensive success than they were in their season opener.
  • Josh Allen should have a clean pocket most of the day
  • Sneaky potential for an uptempo game

HOW BUffalo WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Steelers showed a blueprint of how to slow down the Bills attack in Week 1, holding them far below their expectations by sitting back in coverage and not blitzing very often. This made it difficult for the Bills to move the ball or find openings in coverage to keep drives alive. Buffalo will likely need to increase their run rate against better defenses going forward to keep teams honest. Miami, however, doesn’t have anything close to the same pass rush and defensive line that the Steelers have, which makes sitting back in coverage a much more difficult proposition for them. On top of that, the Dolphins played man coverage at the highest rate in the league and it would be a huge change from their philosophies to switch things up and sit in zones. I would expect the Dolphins to stick with who they are and bring pressure and play man for this first matchup of the year with a divisional opponent. If it doesn’t work this time, they will likely make the adjustment for the second matchup, but the strength of their defense is in their premier CBs, so from a coaching perspective it would send a bad message to your team if you make a big change like that so early in the season — essentially telling your best defensive players you don’t think they can handle the matchup.

The Bills are going to start out with more runs than they used in Week 1, but the allure of man coverage will be too tempting to not attack with their elite receiving corps that is shifty and great at creating separation. On a similar mindset that we talked about for the Dolphins, Week 2 is too early for the Bills to make large-scale changes in how they play based on one down week — especially coming off of a season where they made the conference championship. Allen should once again throw the ball 40+ times and will likely use his legs more on scrambles against a blitzing defense that will turn its back to him while chasing WRs in man coverage.

HOW Miami WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Miami came out of Week 1 with a road victory at New England. While it wasn’t necessarily pretty on either side of the ball, they got the job done in a place that is never easy to play against a team that is always extremely well prepared in those games with extra preparation time. This week they are back home for another key divisional matchup, but their opponent could not be more different in terms of personnel and approach. While the Patriots want to pound the ball and play a ton of 12 personnel (two tight ends), the Bills throw at the highest rate in the league and play three or four wide receivers on the overwhelming majority of their offensive plays.

Miami has a smart coaching staff who understands the game and what it takes to win. While they have a good defense, their staff should understand that the Bills are going to score points and they need to score points early and often to have a chance rather than hoping to keep it close and then scrambling for points from behind. With Will Fuller back in the lineup, the Dolphins have playmakers and speed all over the field. The Bills bottled up Najee Harris in Week 1 and will likely not provide much room for the Dolphins’ run game either. With so many field stretchers and some players who are great with the ball in their hands, the Dolphins will likely be pass heavy while still being conscious of protecting QB Tua Tagovailoa and getting the ball out of his hands in a timely manner — as their offensive line has a lot of issues to overcome. When they do throw downfield, it will almost certainly be away from the Bills’ star CB Tre’Davious White — although he is unlikely to have a “shadow” matchup, so that really doesn’t tell us anything specific about a player likely to benefit. It is also noteworthy that Tua was moving very well in Week 1, now almost two years removed from the hip injury that hobbled him last season, and the Dolphins will likely get him out of the pocket on some designed plays to stretch the Bills defense.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

Both teams played at a high pace and with a decent amount of no-huddle in Week 1. I would expect the same here as that is at the core of who the Bills are and the Dolphins are smart enough to know they need to be aggressive and score early to have a chance to win. The Dolphins two most successful drives in Week 1 were their drives where they used more no-huddle and played at an uptempo pace, which should not be lost on the coaching staff and, with Fuller back in the lineup, they have every reason to press their foot on the gas. In a divisional matchup where both teams know each other so well, there is a good chance this game starts somewhat slowly, but it has a high likelihood to pick up pace and scoring as the game wears on. The biggest threat to this game taking off would be the lack of a running game for both teams, which could cause some issues with red zone efficiency and keep the scoring in check even if volume and pace are up, as expected. However, both teams have deep threats and playmakers who can score from anywhere and QBs who are capable with their legs so that concern should not be a reason to completely stay away.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERALL

  • After one week, the Miami Dolphins stand atop the AFC East following a 17-16 road victory in New England
  • The Buffalo Bills fell at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, 23-16
  • With Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the Bills beat the Dolphins in Miami 31-28 in Week 2 last season

Josh Allen

  • In 2019, the Bills were the worst passing offense when not using play-action (6.2 yards per attempt, 42% success, -0.12 expected points added per attempt)
  • They were one of three offenses to be below average passing without play-action, and above average passing with play action
  • In 2020, the Bills used play-action on 34% of their passes, second highest rate in the league. With play-action in 2020, they averaged 8.4 YPA, 56% success, and 0.22 EPA/att
  • In Week 1 against the Steelers, the Bills called play-action on only 19.6% of Allen’s dropbacks
  • Allen was under pressure on 41.1% of dropbacks, despite not being blitzed on 87.5% of dropbacks
  • He managed a 78.6 passer rating when under pressure, and 85.5 when not blitzed
  • On the 12.5% of dropbacks on which he was blitzed by Pittsburgh, Allen produced a 42.4 passer rating
  • Miami had New England’s Mac Jones under pressure on 35% of his dropbacks, with 47.5% of non-blitzed dropbacks and 52.5% with blitz
  • Last regular season, he averaged 35.8 passing attempts, 284 passing yards, 2.3 passing TDs, 6.4 rushing attempts, 26.3 rushing yards, and 0.5 rushing TDs per game
  • Allen was the league’s eighth best QB under pressure last year
  • In PFF grades, he was eighth in Week 1
  • In Week 1, Allen had a designed rush rate of 30%. For comparison, Kyler Murray & Jaylen Hurts were in the teens
  • Allen’s career DK point log versus Miami: 33.7 // 41.5 // 21.3 (first game against Brian Flores as HC) // 33.8 // 37.5 // 20.3 (30 point blowout, Allen played on only 54.7% of offensive snaps)
  • DK points in all games with 48+ point totals in 2020: 37.5 // 36.2 // 25.4 // 18.3 // 39 // 29.4 // 34.1 // 40.7 // 20.3

BUF WRs

  • In 2020, Buffalo ran 4 WR sets second most often in the league, 186 plays. They ran 4 WR set plays in 2019 a total of four times
  • In Week 1, Buffalo ran 3 WR sets 52%, 4 WR 32%, and 5 WR 13%
  • That rate of 4 WR sets was tops in Week 1, and nearly twice as often as the second most (Arizona with 18%)
  • Three out of the top 4 receivers in pass snaps in Week 1 came from Buffalo
  • Last year, Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535)
  • Diggs averaged 10.4 targets, 7.9 receptions, 95.9 yards in 16 games last season
  • Diggs only managed 8 TDs in 2020
  • Diggs DK points in 48+ point total games: 32.3 // 14.9 // 20.5 // 23.6 // 23.8 // 25.3 // 19.2 // 28.7 // 14.6
  • In Week 1, Diggs had a 28.6% team target share on 14 targets, good for ninth among all players in the league
  • Diggs DK totals against Miami last season: 32.3 // 14.6 (only 48.4% of snaps played)
  • Cole Beasley led the NFL in receiving yards from the slot (948) last season
  • Cole averaged 7.1 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 64.5 yards in 15 games last year
  • Cole’s DK points in 48+ point total games: 12 // 19 // 12.2 // 11.3 // 6.9 // 30.9 // 31 // 22.2
  • In Week 1, Cole spent 98.4% of his snaps in the slot, second most in the league among players with more than one target
  • Cole received 12 targets for 8 receptions and 60 yards, and earned a 55.1 PFF grade
  • In Week 1, New England’s Jakobi Meyers ran the most routes in the slot against Miami. On 9 targets, Meyers produced 6 catches and 44 yards against the Dolphins secondary
  • Emmanuel Sanders played on 58 pass snaps in Week 1
  • Sanders lined up out wide on 2/3rds of his snaps, and in the slot on the other third
  • He turned 7 targets into 4 receptions and 52 yards, with an ADoT of 20.9
  • Gabriel Davis DK points in 48+ point total games in 2020: 7.6 // 12.1 // 9.6 // 10.8 // 17 // 0 // 15.8 // 3.8 // 21.7
  • In Week 1, Davis played on only 38 pass snaps, 20 less than Sanders
  • That still ranked 36th in the league
  • Davis had 2 receptions on 5 targets for 40 yards, but did score a TD
  • Dawson Knox was on the field for only 28 pass snaps, but he did catch all 4 of his targets for 41 yards
  • The two star TEs for New England, Hunter Henry & Jonnu Smith, combined to catch 8 of 8 targets, for 73 yards versus Miami last week

BUF RBs

  • Bills RBs combined for 21.5 touches per game last year (30th), for 106.7 yards from scrimmage (28th)
  • Bills RBs combined for an average 5.0 yards per touch (12th)
  • In 13 games as a rookie, Zack Moss had 126 touches (9.7 per game), 576 yards (44.3), and 5 TDs
  • Devin Singletary out-touched Moss 142-126 in their games played together, but Moss eight opportunities inside of the five yard line, to Singletary’s three
  • Moss DK points in 48+ point total games: 3.7 // 12.8 // 2.7 // 2.4 // 8.1 // 3.1
  • Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 1
  • Singletary’s DK points in 48+ point total games: 9.6 // 16.1 // 18.7 // 4.3 // 6.4 // 2 // 11.3 // 17.4 // 2.3
  • Singletary was the only RB to touch the ball in Week 1
  • On 16 snaps, he had 11 attempts for 72 yards but fumbled twice for a PFF grade of 49

 Tua Tagovailoa

  • Tua ranked 30th in yards per attempt
  • He ranked 27th in expected points added per dropback
  • In 11 personnel: -0.17 EPA/att, 49% success, 6.3 YPA
  • In 12 personnel: 0.25 EPA/att, 62% success, 7.9 YPA
  • The Dolphins passed in 11 personnel on 65% of their plays last season
  • They used 12 personnel 24% of the time
  • The Dolphins have new Co-Offensive Coordinators in 2021
  • In Week 1, they ran 11 personnel 48% of snaps and 12 personnel 37%
  • Tua’s rating when pressured ranked 35th in the NFL
  • Tua’s DK points in his rookie year, with 40+ snaps: 6.7 // 21.4 // 14.7 // 7.3 // 16.1 // 28 // 19.7 // 8.9 // 21.2 (in a must win Week 17 road game @ BUF, which MIA lost by 30 points)
  • Tua’s statline on the road in New England Week 1: 16/27 – 202 – 1 – 1 passing & 4 – 1 – 1 rushing for 17.2 DK points

MIA Passing Attack

  • Parker averaged 7.4 targets in 14 games last season (11 starts)
  • Gesicki averaged 5.7 targets in 15 games last year
  • Week 1, without Will Fuller, Miami WRs & TEs combined for just 9 receptions on 19 targets, totaling 151 yards and 1 TD (Waddle)
  • DeVante Parker ran routes lined up wide at an 85.7% rate. With an ADoT of 13.6 and 20.3 yards per catch, he scored 12.1 DK points
  • Jaylen Waddle ran routes lined up in the slot at a 75% rate. WIth an ADoT of 10.2 and 15.3 YPC, he scored 16.1 DK points
  • No other Dolphins WR scored fantasy points
  • Mike Gesicki was targeted 3 times but produced nothing to show for it & fellow TE Durham Smythe caught 1 ball on 2 targets for 9 yards
  • In their Week 1 road win at Buffalo, Pittsburgh attacked the Bills with 11 personnel on 78% of plays, fourth most frequent in the league
  • PFF grades for the Bills CBs after Week 1: 50.3 & 49
  • Grades for Dolphins WRs: 72.7 (Waddle) & 82.9 (Parker)
  • Fuller’s grade last year: 86.2
  • Fuller’s DK totals in outdoor games last season: 22.2 // 0 // 15.4 // 27.3 // 24 // 8.8

MIA RBs

  • In Week 1, Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed combined for seven receptions on eight targets, netting 51 yards
  • Gaskin’s rushing line: 9 – 49, with the receiving production he scored 12.6 DK points
  • Ahmed’s rushing line: 3 – 4, scoring 4.8 DK points
  • Malcolm Brown chipped in 5 attempts for 16 yards
  • In Week 1, the Bills defense held Najee Harris to just 5.9 DK points despite playing 100% of the offensive snaps
  • Gaskin’s DK point totals last year: 10.6 // 14.2 (vs. BUF) // 14.5 // 9.2 // 20.1 // 16.6 // 14.3 // 15.1 // 33.9 // 17.7 (@ BUF)
  • Ahmed’s DK point totals last season, in games with at least 25% of snaps: 3.8 // 16 // 12.4 // 24.7 // 13.8 (@ BUF)