Falcons (

19.5) at
Bucs (

32.5)

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY Hilow >>

• A glaring example of a game that has a wide range of real-world outcomes
• With a setup like this, it is highest EV to either attack the game fully or fade it fully, with the additional knowledge that the field will not be entering many game stacks into play
• One of the rare cases where naked Brady is interesting as a leverage piece

HOW Atlanta WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Matt Ryan’s line in Week 1: 164 yards and no touchdowns. Calvin Ridley: 5/51/0 on eight targets. Kyle Pitts: 4/31/0 on eight targets. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I do this not to influence our own process, but rather to highlight how the field is likely reacting (or overreacting) to Week 1. We were drafting this offense as an uptempo, concentrated, and capable offense all offseason in Best Ball. Are we really about to allow one week to change our entire offseason process? I sure as hell am not. Okay, with that out of the way, let’s dig in! We saw my personnel usage call from this preseason ring true out of Atlanta in Week 1, although, as predicted, their personnel usage rates only tell half the story as rookie tight end Kyle Pitts was used all over the field. On paper, it says Atlanta ran 51% 12-personnel when in reality it was more akin to a spread 11-personnel alignment. Kyle Pitts saw a 61% snap rate in Week 1, with Hayden Hurst at 60%, Russell Gage at 68%, Calvin Ridley at 85%, and tertiary options all sitting around 7-29%. Look for this Arthur Smith-led offense to come out firing after a week filled with self-reflection.

The backfield was dominated by Mike Davis, who played a massive 75% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and saw a solid 21 running back opportunities in one of the worst game scripts he will see all season. That level of usage is one tier below elite, but we might have to wait until Week 5 against the Jets to truly capitalize on it, with matchups against the Buccaneers, Giants, and Football Team on tap over the next three weeks. Behind Davis, converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson saw a 35% snap rate and nine running back (?) opportunities, and Keith Smith mopped up some meaningless end of game snaps for five running back opportunities. The matchup is no beuno this week against a defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfield in 2020. Atlanta’s offensive line actually performed quite well in Week 1, inflating the net-adjusted line yards metric to a value of 4.37 yards. I won’t be going here, but nobody else will either.

Calvin Ridley saw a ridiculous 50.3% of the team’s available air yards with an average depth of target of 12.0 in Week 1. Yeah, the dude will be fine. Not the greatest matchup on paper on tap, but this is a guy that can beat any matchup as evidenced by his seventh-ranked average cushion in Week 1 of 6.86. If this offense puts up points against the Bucs, he will likely be a large reason why. Rookie “tight end” Kyle Pitts saw a 31.4% air yards share in Week 1 which ranked third amongst all tight ends. His average cushion created was 4.73, second in the league. He saw snaps inline (11), in the slot (20), and split wide (12). The largest problem for the Falcons in Week 1 was an offensive line that ranked above average in run-blocking metrics but allowed an unsightly 41% pressure rate, which was a problem for quarterback Matt Ryan all afternoon. With another high expected pressure rate on top for Week 2, look for Arthur Smith to adjust and get the ball out of Ryan’s hands quicker. The weakness of this Bucs defense over the last 20+ games has been over the middle of the field toward slot coverage Sean Murphy-Bunting, who landed on IR following the season opener. Ross Cockrell should step into the slot coverage after playing 86% of his snaps from the slot in Week 1. He is a 6’0” defensive back with 4.56 speed, 36^th percentile speed scores, 51^st percentile burst scores, and 11^th percentile agility scores. Russell Gage played 59% of his snaps from the slot in 2020 and started the year at a 51% slot snap rate and is an interesting option against the weakest part of the Buccaneers defense.

HOW Tampa Bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::

This is Brady’s world, we’re all just living in it. The Bucs showed us an ungodly 78% situation-neutral pass rate in Week 1, likely inflated due to the specific opponent’s propensity to put up points. Said another way, Arians likely kept his foot on the gas knowing full well the Cowboys could come back at any time. Although this is still a pass-heavy team, we’re likely to see a steady trickle-regression towards their 2020 rate of 62% as the season progresses. There’s not much else to say regarding how Tampa Bay will attempt to win games as literally nothing has changed for this team in almost a full calendar year.

Bruce Arians’ most recent quote surrounding this backfield was that any one of his three running backs could be “named” the starter, so take the vote of confidence he gave Ronald Jones this week by naming him the starter with a grain of salt. The truth is that all of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Giovani Bernard are going to be involved on a weekly basis, with the always present threat of the coaching staff riding the hot hand. The 4.45 net-adjusted line yards metric falls right in the middle of Week 2’s range, but the bigger hurdle to fantasy utility is the unknown weekly nature of the division of usage between these three backs.

As we saw in Week 1, any one (or two or three) of the pass-catchers from this offense can pop in any given game. All of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and the reincarnation of Rob Gronkowski offer sky-high ceilings each and every week. As we also saw in Week 1, Tom Brady is completely fine taking what an opposing defense gives him, evidenced by the sparse involvement of Mike Evans, who drew shadow coverage from Dallas’ only above average defender. I can’t imagine defensive coordinator Dean Pees blitzes Brady heavily in this spot (which would open up the middle of the field and the sidelines), which should mean a lot of zone coverages. Any one of the aforementioned four superstars can beat zone regularly, so consider this a high ceiling spot across the board, but one that comes with lower-than-perceived floor.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

The likeliest game flow will be completely driven by the Falcons’ ability to put points on the board. What I mean by that is this: regardless of the score on the scoreboard, we can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attack this game largely the same, but the Falcons will need to keep pressure on for their above average pass rate and pace of play to tickle the ungodly realm. The Falcons have the pieces to put points up in this setup, and I can all but guarantee the field will be light on game stacks from this game, so keep that in mind when building this week. If the Falcons flounder once more, the entire fantasy utility from this game fades as it likely limits the Buccaneers’ aerial aggression and instead filters additional work through a three-headed backfield

DFS+ Interpretation ::