Kickoff Sunday, Sep 19th 4:25pm Eastern

Titans (
24) at

Hawks (
30)

Over/Under 54.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
24th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
3rd DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
20th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
19th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
20th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
23rd DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Seattle boasts a mismatch in the trenches and is expected to utilize Chris Carson as a true workhorse
  • The Seattle passing game is likely to go over-owned, relative to the likeliest scenario generated volume
  • Although unlikely, a tributary game flow would involve the Titans jumping out to a large lead early, in which case nobody will be on a Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett/Derrick Henry game stack
  • Not much to like from the Titans in the likeliest scenario outcome

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans ended Week 1’s contest with 36 pass attempts to just 22 rush attempts, but the underlying metrics paint a different picture. In that game, they held a situation-neutral pass rate of only 40%. The problem was the situation was not neutral for very long as the team was down 24-6 at half. In other words: how Tennessee will try to win games has not changed with the addition of Julio Jones. No, they are not likely to “let Tannehill cook” (okay, that’s not a thing). No, they are not going to force feed the ball to their two star wide receivers. We didn’t see play action from the Titans in Week 1 because, well, they couldn’t establish a baseline to run play action (play action at the lowest rate in the league in Week 1). What I saw out of their performance last week was poor situational play calling and poor execution on both sides of the ball. I saw unblocked edge rushers with a direct path to Tannehill off a bootleg. I saw heavy rush rates on early downs in the first half. I saw predictability and lack of execution on offense, along with miscommunications and poor positionings on defense. That is to be expected early in the year with a new coordinator on each side. But are those areas of the game plan likely to be corrected in the span of one week? Maybe. Unlikely, but maybe.

Tennesee left Week 1 with a lowly 3.40 adjusted line yards metric, but a lot of that feels misleading in the sense that they were never able to keep the Cardinals off balance (their bread and butter). Seattle ranked middle of the pack as far as adjusted line yards goes on defense in Week 1, ceding a value of 3.97 to the borderline elite Colts. Expect Seattle to again focus on doing what they can to eliminate the run after allowing a lowly 3.9 average yards per rush attempt in 2020, due in large part to the growth of nose tackle Poona Ford, whom the team recently signed to a lucrative extension. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle here as far as matchup is concerned, with Tennessee almost assuredly set to improve after their Week 1 fiasco, and Seattle well equipped to handle it. That said, Seattle allowed the sixth lowest second level yards to opposing running backs in 2020 at 1.06 per touch, meaning prototypical long Derrick Henry runs are that much more unlikely here.

We saw how much this Titans pass game efficiency revolves around play action in Week 1, with the team all but falling flat on their face in all aspects of their game plan. In another matchup that provides questions with respect to their ability to generate the rhythm on offense required for play action to be successful, it is hard to get overly excited about the pass game as a whole. That said, we know the kind of small sample efficiency both AJ Brown and Julio Jones possess. The chances of this game turning into a back-and-forth shootout are fairly low, meaning each (plus Ryan Tannehill) should only be utilized in game stacks that tell the story of Seattle jumping out to a large lead early.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Seattle showed us in Week 1 that they intend to snap back to a more balanced offense in 2021. Their 49% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 1 was sixth lowest, down from 60% in 2020. Their new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, came over from the Rams pass game coordinator position, where the team ranked 26th in the NFL in 2020 in situation-neutral pass rate at 56%. The addition of tight end Gerald Everett also predictably showed up in their personnel usage rates, with the team running 12-personnel 38% of the time, the third highest rate in the league behind Atlanta (not really 12-personnel) and New England (obvious via their offseason personnel moves). Their 57% 11-personnel rate was down slightly from their season long average of 66% in 2020, even with the addition of rookie wide receiver Dee Eskridge. So what does all this data tell us? It tells us we should expect a run-balanced offense moving forward.

One of the most surprising statistics (to me, at least) that I came across when researching games this week was the absolute domination of this Seahawks offensive line against a team that allowed only 3.76 running back yards per carry in 2020. Seattle generated the second highest adjusted line yards in Week 1 at 5.37, second only to the top run-blocking offensive line in 2020, the Browns. The 19 rushes by their running backs averaged 5.47 yards per carry, again, against the defense that finished fourth in the league in yards allowed per carry to opposing backfields in 2020! That is impressive stuff. Running back Chris Carson saw 19 of the 23 available running back opportunities for the Seahawks in Week 1 and backup running back Rashaad Penny is expected to miss Week 2. Tennessee, on the other hand, finished Week 1 with the 24th ranked adjusted line yards metric on defense at 4.67, leading to a net-adjusted line yards metric of 5.02. For comparison sake, an over 5.0 net-adjusted line yards metric happened about once every week on average in 2020 across the entire NFL (it just happens to be the second-ranked net-adjusted line yards metric for Week 2 behind the otherworldly Browns). The Seahawks left Week 1 with two red zone rush attempts and two red zone pass attempts, something that could be a telling statistic after the Rams attempted a whopping 81 running back rush attempts in the red zone last season. For comparison, Josh Jacobs led the league in red zone rush attempts in 2020 at 64. Those same Rams running backs combined for 54 total green zone rushing attempts in 2020, with Josh Jacobs again leading the way from an individual player at 35. Will this be a trend or statistical noise moving forward for Seattle? No idea, but I sure as hell am going to be early on it if it turns out to be the new norm.

Not much has changed with respect to Seattle’s pass game other than a potential dip to weekly expected pass attempts (in neutral to positive game scripts). This is still an offense expected to be highly efficient through the air with the trio of Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf and Lockett both played on over 85% of their team’s Week 1 snaps, with both Gerald Everett and Will Dissly trailing them slightly at 72% and 70%, respectively. The matchup is a good one against a team playing with five new starters on the defensive side of the ball, with a new defensive coordinator at the helm. We also know that Seattle will continue attacking the intermediate to deep areas of the field when they do throw, areas the Titans expectedly struggled with in Week 1. Consider all pass-catchers “bet on efficiency” plays that are likely to garner increased ownership this week.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likeliest game flow involves the Seahawks winning early on both sides of the ball and controlling the pace and tempo of the game. Chris Carson has room for 20-24 running back opportunities in this case and is highly appealing from a leverage and Game Theoretic standpoint with the main ownership from the Seahawks expected to come from the pass game. It is likely the Titans focus their time and efforts this week on cleaning up the execution errors and lack of dynamic play-calling, which should keep this game closer for longer than what we saw out of this team in Week 1. In all, the field is likely to understate the significance of this game’s lofty game total, and more specifically, Seattle’s lofty team total. Although unlikely (which means it doesn’t warrant a full tributaries write up), if the Titans somehow jump out to a multi-score lead early, this game could turn into one of the week’s “had to have it” games, and nobody will be on a tributary game stack.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • DAL is the only underdog with a higher implied team total than TEN in W2 (main slate)
  • Only TB & CLE have higher implied team totals than SEA in W2
  • SEA gained more yds than IND despite running 18 fewer plays
  • SEA & TEN faced the highest amount of passes in 2020, allowing the 2nd & 4th most pass yds; TEN allowed 13 more pass TDs

Russell Wilson:

  • TEN allowed the 5th most QB DK pts in 2020, and allowed the biggest QB score of W1 to Kyler Murray
  • Wilson threw for 254 yds, 4 TDs in his first game with new OC Shane Waldron
  • Wilson’s 23 pass att in W1 were 4 att lower than any game in 2020 (lowest since 20 att in Week 8 of 2019)
  • Since 2019, SEA has been implied for 28+ pts in 11 games; Wilson had a hot stretch in 2020 in which he was allowed to “cook” for 5 games of 25+ DK pts, but in the other 6 (including the last four), Wilson has scored 15.7 // 11.0 // 20.1 // 14.4 // 17.0 // 23.1
  • 28, 31, 43, 27, 31, 20 // 30
  • Wilson averaged 39.4 pass att in the stretch of big scores, but just 30 pass att in the others (just 1 of 6 higher than 31 att)

SEA WRs:

  • Top DK score between Lockett/Metcalf in the aforementioned 11 games with 28+ team totals: 19 // 2.2 // 40 // 17.6 // 27.3 // 56 // 26.8 // 21.7 // 30.7 // 13 // 18.1
  • Times leading: Lockett (5) // Metcalf (6)
  • Lockett & Metcalf finished with 132 & 129 targets in 2020; each saw 5 in W1
  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020, and only TB allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in W1
  • TEN allowed ARI WRs to score 26.3 (Hop) // 24 (Kirk) // 10.8 (Moore)

Chris Carson:

  • TEN allowed the 7th most RB DK pts in 2020
  • Edmonds & Conner rushed for 116 yds on 28 att vs TEN in W1
  • Carson received 19 of SEA’s 22 RB touches in W1
  • Carson rushed for 91 yds on 16 att vs tough IND run defense in W1
  • Carson didn’t top 17 rush att in 2020 after 8 games of 20+ att in 2019
  • In 14 games as a Home Favorite since 2019, Carson has topped 20 DK pts just four times, with a high score of just 25

Ryan Tannehill:

  • During new OC Todd Downing’s only time as an OC (2017 OAK), his offense utilized play action at the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL that year (14%)
  • Ryan Tannehill’s YPA with & without play action in 2020: 9.7 vs 7.0
  • Tannehill’s play action rate dropped from 36.4% in 2020 to 11.6% in W1 (though it should be noted they were trailing big for large portion of the game)
  • SEA allowed the 6th most QB DK pts in 2020; Wentz finished with 251:2 in W1
  • SEA sacked Wentz three times; Tanny was sacked six times vs ARI
  • 2020: The game scores of his 7 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24
  • Tanny as Road Dog with TEN (DK pts): 28 // 7 // 18.8 // 17.5 // 22.9 // 19.1 // 18.3

TEN WRs:

  • 2020: SEA allowed the most WR rec, 2nd most WR rec yds, 4th most WR DK pts
  • W1: SEA played decently vs IND WRs, allowing 122 yds, 2 TD on 14 targets
  • Even in a game TEN got blown out and ran over 60 plays, Brown & Julio only received 8 & 6 targets in W1
  • TEN had a 100+ yd WR in 10/16 games last year
  • In 12 games as an Underdog with Tanny, Brown has produced just 3 games of 20+ DK pts, with a high of 25.8
  • SEA faced the 3rd highest pass rate in 2020 (16th in W1)
  • In Julio’s two games vs SEA since 2019, he has 150+ rec yds in both (on 24 targets from Matt Ryan)

Derrick Henry:

  • SEA ranked 7th best in defensive rush DVOA in 2020
  • Taylor & Hines combined for 90 yds on 26 att in W1 (3.5 yds/att)
  • In 16 games in SEA since 2019, the only opposing RBs to score 20+ DK pts are Kamara (37.1; 9:92:1 through the air) // Drake (36.4) // Akers (28.6)
  • Total touches for those RBs: AK (26) // Drake (28) // Akers (30)
  • Henry as a Road Underdog with Tanny: 24.9 // 30.4 // 29.3 // 14.1 // 23.2 // 41.5 // 9.8
  • The scores of 20+ DK pts all came in Wins except for the first one listed, in which Henry caught one of only 3 rec TDs in his career

TEN Trends:

  • Tanny & Henry’s DK pts in Tanny’s 6 big scores: 37 (RT), 28.2 (DH) // 33.6, 43.4 // 31.6, 6.9 // 30, 19.3 // 28.4, 39 // 26.8, 8.4
  • Those are combined scores of 65.2 // 77 // 38.5 // 49.3 // 67.4 // 35.2
  • At least one TEN player scored 20+ DK pts in 14/16 games in 2020
  • 20+ DK pts tally: Henry (8) // Brown (7) // Davis (4) // Jonnu (2) // Firkser (1)
  • At least one TEN player scored 25+ DK pts in 9/16 games in 2020
  • 25+ DK pts tally: Henry (6) // Brown (3) // Davis (2) // Firkser (1)