Patriots (

24.5) at
Jets (

18.5)

Game Overview ::

By Papy324>>> 

• New England will feel a lot of pressure to win this game
• The Jets looked lost on offense in Week 1
• Damien Harris offers cheap touches if he isn’t in the doghouse
• The best play from this game is likely a defense

How New England Will Try to Win ::

The Patriots are coming off a tough one-point loss against an opponent they’ve consistently beaten for the better part of the past two decades (Tom Brady is 23-12 against Miami in his career). Does it feel to anyone else like the Patriots have the most pressure of any team entering Week 2? After a lackluster rebuilding year, followed by a frantic offseason of spending, the Patriots faithful fully expect a 2021 return to glory. An 0-2 start would not only put the Patriots up against stiff odds historically to make the playoffs, but it would also ignite a narrative that the “Patriot way” was really just the “Brady way.” 

Fortunately for the Pats, they draw a lackluster Jets team starting a rookie QB in his second career game. The Pats gave us a glimpse of how they want to attack in Week 1: Slam Damien Harris into the opposing front seven and let their elite offensive line control the game. This style makes sense, given that the Pats are starting a rookie QB. Damien Harris got 23 carries in Week 1, and they continued to ride him until a costly fumble lost them the game late in the fourth quarter. We can only assume that Bill Belichick will curse Harris’ family line for generations over such an offense. Still, given the other options in the backfield, Bill is likely to keep featuring Harris. 

The passing game is the path of least resistance against a Jets secondary leaving a lot to be desired. However, the Pats are also starting a rookie QB in his second game, and if they can control the game on defense, they are likely to opt for a ground and pound approach. When they do take to the air, the receiving work is spread out, with eight different players catching a pass in Week 1 and no one earning double-digit targets. Jakobi Meyers was the most involved with nine looks but only turned them into six receptions for 44 yards. Behind Meyers, Nelson Agholor and James White saw seven targets each. The Pats new TEs (Jonnu Smith/Hunter Henry) saw five and three targets, respectively, effectively splitting the TE production. The Pats should be content to limit their risk in the passing game while exploiting the Jets weak secondary on crucial third downs.  

How New York Will Try to Win ::

“You’ll still never run 60 plays!” shouts Adams Gase as he curses the Jets on his way out the door. Do the Jets deserve a Week 1 mulligan? Are we playing breakfast balls? Things were supposed to be different under new OC Mike LaFleur, and in fairness, at least LaFleur tried. The Jets ran a sad 54 plays, but most of them were aggressive, attempting 37 passes. 

Zach Wilson looked like a frightened child in his debut. He consistently failed to deliver the ball on time, and the game appeared to be moving too fast for him. Wilson did not pass the eye test in Week 1 and in comes a Patriots team with a coach that is known to confuse rookie QBs. This matchup looks scary for Wilson. The Jets should stay aggressive and “try to win” with their new coaching regime, but they lack the roster to be effective. 

On the ground, the Jets split work between Tevin Coleman (nine carries), Ty Johnson (four carries), and Michael Carter (four carries). When you slice up a small pie three different ways, no one gets much pie. Expect the Jets to try and be more balanced for as long as this game remains competitive. 

When the Jets took to the air in Week 1, they operated a spread-out attack with nine different players seeing targets and no one seeing more than seven. Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios led the way with seven looks each. Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft split the TE work almost evenly, capping both players’ potential to make an impact. Minimum-priced Week 1 darling Elijah Moore massively disappointed, registering only four targets and managing to “gain” negative three yards. The Jets will try and protect Wilson before eventually letting him do his best to win the game. 

Most Likely Game Flow ::

This game checks in with a lowly 42.5 total, by far the lowest on the slate. We should expect the Pats to be content to win this game on defense and with a power running game. They have no reason to expose Mac Jones to a mistake-prone game and should be able to let him do just enough to get his first NFL win. The Jets will “try to win,” unlike the Adam Gase years, but simply don’t have the talent on their roster to keep up. Expect an ineffective running game to eventually lead to an ineffective passing game as the Jets enter catch-up mode.

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::