Game Overview ::
- New England will feel a lot of pressure to win this game
- The Jets looked lost on offense in Week 1
- Damien Harris offers cheap touches if he isn’t in the doghouse
- The best play from this game is likely a defense
How New England Will Try to Win ::
The Patriots are coming off a tough one-point loss against an opponent they’ve consistently beaten for the better part of the past two decades (Tom Brady is 23-12 against Miami in his career). Does it feel to anyone else like the Patriots have the most pressure of any team entering Week 2? After a lackluster rebuilding year, followed by a frantic offseason of spending, the Patriots faithful fully expect a 2021 return to glory. An 0-2 start would not only put the Patriots up against stiff odds historically to make the playoffs, but it would also ignite a narrative that the “Patriot way” was really just the “Brady way.”
Fortunately for the Pats, they draw a lackluster Jets team starting a rookie QB in his second career game. The Pats gave us a glimpse of how they want to attack in Week 1: Slam Damien Harris into the opposing front seven and let their elite offensive line control the game. This style makes sense, given that the Pats are starting a rookie QB. Damien Harris got 23 carries in Week 1, and they continued to ride him until a costly fumble lost them the game late in the fourth quarter. We can only assume that Bill Belichick will curse Harris’ family line for generations over such an offense. Still, given the other options in the backfield, Bill is likely to keep featuring Harris.
The passing game is the path of least resistance against a Jets secondary leaving a lot to be desired. However, the Pats are also starting a rookie QB in his second game, and if they can control the game on defense, they are likely to opt for a ground and pound approach. When they do take to the air, the receiving work is spread out, with eight different players catching a pass in Week 1 and no one earning double-digit targets. Jakobi Meyers was the most involved with nine looks but only turned them into six receptions for 44 yards. Behind Meyers, Nelson Agholor and James White saw seven targets each. The Pats new TEs (Jonnu Smith/Hunter Henry) saw five and three targets, respectively, effectively splitting the TE production. The Pats should be content to limit their risk in the passing game while exploiting the Jets weak secondary on crucial third downs.
How New York Will Try to Win ::
“You’ll still never run 60 plays!” shouts Adams Gase as he curses the Jets on his way out the door. Do the Jets deserve a Week 1 mulligan? Are we playing breakfast balls? Things were supposed to be different under new OC Mike LaFleur, and in fairness, at least LaFleur tried. The Jets ran a sad 54 plays, but most of them were aggressive, attempting 37 passes.
Zach Wilson looked like a frightened child in his debut. He consistently failed to deliver the ball on time, and the game appeared to be moving too fast for him. Wilson did not pass the eye test in Week 1 and in comes a Patriots team with a coach that is known to confuse rookie QBs. This matchup looks scary for Wilson. The Jets should stay aggressive and “try to win” with their new coaching regime, but they lack the roster to be effective.
On the ground, the Jets split work between Tevin Coleman (nine carries), Ty Johnson (four carries), and Michael Carter (four carries). When you slice up a small pie three different ways, no one gets much pie. Expect the Jets to try and be more balanced for as long as this game remains competitive.
When the Jets took to the air in Week 1, they operated a spread-out attack with nine different players seeing targets and no one seeing more than seven. Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios led the way with seven looks each. Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft split the TE work almost evenly, capping both players’ potential to make an impact. Minimum-priced Week 1 darling Elijah Moore massively disappointed, registering only four targets and managing to “gain” negative three yards. The Jets will try and protect Wilson before eventually letting him do his best to win the game.
Most Likely Game Flow ::
This game checks in with a lowly 42.5 total, by far the lowest on the slate. We should expect the Pats to be content to win this game on defense and with a power running game. They have no reason to expose Mac Jones to a mistake-prone game and should be able to let him do just enough to get his first NFL win. The Jets will “try to win,” unlike the Adam Gase years, but simply don’t have the talent on their roster to keep up. Expect an ineffective running game to eventually lead to an ineffective passing game as the Jets enter catch-up mode.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Dwprix >>
- Matchup has the lowest total on the 13 game slate (42)
- NE is tied for the 4th highest implied team total
- Robert Salah’s SF D faced Josh McDaniel’s NE O last season
- Salah’s D only allowed two FGs & SF won 33-6
- NE has won ten straight over NYG
- In five of the games, NYJ failed to score a TD
- NYJ has avg just 11.4 pts/game across the last ten vs NE
- Finished 8th overall in QBR, highest among all rookie QBs
- Mac Jones was pressured on 52.5% of his dropbacks Wk1
- MIA blitzed Jones on 47.5% of his dropbacks last week
- He completed 80% of his throws under pressure, 6th best
- Damien Harris carried 23 times (100 yds), only Mark Ingram & Joe Mixon saw more last wk
- James White: 4 carries Brandon Bolden: 1
- Harris fumbled at the 9 yd line with 3:18 left to go w/ NE down 17-16
- White saw 7 tgs, only Jakobi Myers saw more NE tgs (9)
- Only 4 WRs saw the field for NE
- Snap %: Jakobi Myers-99% // Nelson Agholor-85% // Kendrick Bourne-44% // Gunner Olszewski-15%
- Meyers tgs last four: 9 // 7 // 6 // 10
- Meyers had 3 games last season seeing 10+ tgs but 0 TDs
- Jonnu Smith played 55 snaps // Hunter Henry 54
- Tgs: Smith-5 // Henry-3
- NE lined up in 12 personnel (2 TEs) 49%, 2nd most of any team wk 1
- NYJ threw on 72% of their offensive plays (5th most)
- Wilson finished Wk 1 24th in QBR
- He lost 51 yds from sacks (2nd most)
- And took 6 sacks which tied for the most (Tannehill)
- Wilson had pressure on 51.2% of his dropbacks, 3rd most
- When under pressure, Wilson completed 31.3% of his passes, 5th lowest in Wk 1
- NE generated pressure on 13/29 Tua Tagovailoa’s dropbacks last week
- Rookie QBs vs Pats since 2010: 14 TDs:21 INTs
- Wilson’s T2T (2.84) was 8th longest of all QBs last week
- He was 2:6:62:1 TD on throws 20+ yds
- Wk 1 Snap %: Corey Davis-92% // Eijah Moore-88% // Braxton Berrios-57% // Jeff Smith-11%
- No NYJ receiver had more than seven tgs (Davis, Berrios)
- There were eight NYJ receivers who caught a pass.
- Davis turned 5 rec into 97 yds (19.4 avg) and 2 TDs
- NYJ snap %: Ty Johnson-51% // Tevin Coleman-26% // Michael Carter-25%
- WK 1: NE allowed 23:74 rush yds // NYJ rushed for 17:45
- No NYJ RB had 10+ carries & they only had 5 total RB tgs
- Tyler Kroft: 66% snaps, 5 tgs, 3:26
- Ryan Griffin: 49% snaps, 6 tgs, 3:22