Kickoff Sunday, Sep 26th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
29) at

Lions (
21.5)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
13th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
26th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
15th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
26th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
10th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
25th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
10th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Game stack correlations make sense in this one 
  • The Ravens offense is highly likely to succeed 
  • T.J. Hockenson has a lot of factors in his favor 
  • Game flow will depend on the Lions ability to keep up 

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens are coming off a thrilling primetime win over a Kansas City team that has been their nemesis the past few years. The Ravens staved off an 0-2 start, which is a historically difficult hole to escape on your way to a playoff berth. JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and the third-string popcorn vendor are all players that could succeed in this scheme behind this O-line. The Ravens are showing the world that the RB position doesn’t matter much in today’s NFL. All of Williams, Murray, and even Freeman had success running the ball against the Chiefs. Of course, all the Ravens RBs are RB2s, because the true RB1 is their QB, Lamar Jackson. 

The Jackson-led Ravens have had their way with bad defenses. This is a bad defense. The Ravens have no reason to deviate from their preferred method of attack: pounding a combination of RBs behind Jackson and mixing in shots to Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins. Mark Andrews is yet to see more than five targets in-game, and it remains to be seen if his seemingly reduced role is fluky or if we need to adjust our expectations for the star TE going forward. Since the Ravens should be able to attack in any manner they choose, Week 3 will offer insight into the state of Mark Andrews. 

Expect the Ravens to take an early lead and keep their foot on the gas long enough to put the game away before eventually running out the clock in the 4th quarter if the Lions fail to keep up on the scoreboard. 

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Dan Campbell deserves credit; the Lions are biting knees. It will be hard to win with such a talent-deficient roster, but the Lions aren’t just rolling over and playing dead. They played very hard against San Francisco/Green Bay, two teams that are expected to contend. San Francisco jumped on the Lions, and instead of throwing in the towel they roared back and almost stole the game. Aaron Rodgers was sweating bullets at halftime before eventually pulling away late. If comparing rosters, the Lions had no business being in either game. 

Expect the Lions to come out swinging rather than sitting back and waiting for the Ravens to bring down the hammer. The Lions have thrown 93 passes versus only 43 runs, and while game flow has influenced those numbers, the Lions are also being aggressive. The Lions are a boxer that knows he’s outmatched but would rather get knocked out than lose on the judge’s card. They will try and keep up with the Ravens, eventually falling flat and turning the ball over once forced into desperation mode. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a 50-point total which falls right around the upper middle of the slate. The Ravens are expected to score most of those points with a 29-point implied team total. The most likely game flow is the Ravens jump on the talentless Lions defense and do their typical dismantling of below-average units. This scenario would lead to the Ravens pilling up points early and remaining aggressive if the Lions can keep it close. The Lions are unlikely to lay down and will keep leaving teeth marks on Lamar Jackson’s legs for as long as they can. Expect the Ravens to keep their foot on the gas through three quarters, eventually slowing the game down in the 4th with a multiple score lead. 

Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • This matchup is the 5th highest total & carries a total over 50 (opened @ 49)
  • BAL carries the 4th highest implied team total (28.75) and has the 4th largest spread (-7)  
  • They’ve put up 35 & 27 pts and rank fourth in pts/gm
  • BAL has been in high scoring environments against KC (3rd pts/gm) and LAR (7th in pts/gm)
  • DETs thrown on 75% of their offensive plays
  • They’ve given up the second most pts/game (38) playing GB & SF

Lamar Jackson: 

  • BAL has attempted just 28 passes/game (27th)
  • Jackson hit his ceiling last wk with 37.36 DK pts scoring 2 rush TDs, one pass TD, & hitting the 100+ yd bonus
  • BAL O has scored 201.66 DK pts.  Jackson has 57.26 of them (28%)
  • In 43 career starts, Jackson has 11 with 100+ rush yds
  • Jackson was 9th overall in rush yds last season & is third so far this season

BAL RBs:

  • Snap share: Ty’son Williams-50% // Latavius Murray-33% 
  • Williams has carried for 22:142:1 TDs, 6.5 yds/att
  • Trenton Cannon was released 
  • Devonta Freeman-13% snap share Week 2
  • RBs vs DET:  Aaron Jones: Rush 17:67:1 TD, Rec 6:48:3 TD (41.5 DK pts)  // Elijah Mitchell: 19:104:1 TD (19.4 DK pts) (Goal line TD stolen by Hasty, Hasty’s only rush att of the gm)
  • DET ranked 31st in DK pts allowed to RBs in 2020 (33.1 pts/g)

BAL WRs:

  • 57% of Jackson’s targets have went to Marquis Brown (16 tgs) or Sammy Watkins (15 tgs)
  • Brown has the only rec TDs for BAL
  • Of 6 BAL RZ targets attempted, Brown has three for one TD
  • Brown has eight TDs in the last eight regular season games

Mark Andrews:

  • Andrews has run a route on 67 of 74 Lamar dropbacks
  • Tgts // RZ tgts: 10 // 0
  • He has two TDs in his last eleven games 

Jared Goff:

  • Goff is tied (Derek Carr) for the most passes this season (93) having to play from behind against SF and against GB 
  • 57 pass atts in Week 1 was Goffs second highest of his career
  • Goff ranks 27th in yds/comp (6.3)
  • Goffs passer rating when kept clean: 117.5 // Under pressure: 41.2
  • Martindale blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league

Det RBs:

  • De’Andre Swift is second on the team in tgs.
  • Swift leads the NFL in RB tgs (16)
  • Jamaal Williams has also seen 12 tgs 
  • Swifts DK price is down $1.3k from last week in another game DET will be expected to have to throw
  • Swift & Williams have split carries: Swift-19 // Williams 16

DET WRs:

  • Tyrell Williams is doubtful to play after leaving Wk 1 w/ a concussion
  • WR snap share: Kalif Raymond-70% // Amon Ra St. Brown-62% // Quintez Cephus-51% // Trinity Benson- 49%
  • DET WRs make up 44% of the team target share
  • Cephus leads WRs w/ 12 tgs and has TDs in both games

TJ Hockenson:

  • Leads DET in tgs (20), rec (16), rec yds (163) & has two TDs on the season.  
  • That ranks second among TE tgs and third in TE yds.
  • BAL has faced arguably the two best TEs in the league so far (Kelce, Waller).  
  • They’ve given up the most DK pts/game to TEs this season
  • Over the past three seasons with Don Martindale as DC, BAL has ranked in the second half of the league in DK pts allowed to TE.
  • BAL D under Don Martindale TE DK pts allowed rank: 2020-19th (12.2) // 2019-31st (13.7) // 2018-16th (13.3)