Kickoff Sunday, Sep 26th 4:05pm Eastern

Dolphins (
20.75) at

Raiders (
24.25)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
19th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
28th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
26th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
10th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
17th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
27th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Likely to see a pass-heavy approach from both teams here, with two of the bottom run-blocking offensive lines in the league pitted against each other
  • Look for Miami to work primarily short-intermediate over the middle of the field through the air, while Las Vegas holds the personnel to stretch Miami vertically
  • Expect a lot of offensive plays to be run from scrimmage here, with questionable drive success rate from each team
  • Likely to be an ugly game with the possibility for one or two usable pieces from volume alone

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami has played at the league’s 25th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and 26th overall, with the ninth highest situation-neutral pass rate and 28th-ranked adjusted line yards value. It’s likely not a case of them not wanting to run the football (when considering their above average defense), it’s simply that they can’t. They built this team all offseason around Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game, and now Tua is out with fractured ribs. Jacoby Brissett will now be charged with managing a game plan put together over the course of a week against an aggressive opponent that can put up points against the best of them.

Running back Myles Gaskin has maintained his lead back role over the first two weeks, garnering 54% and 61% snap rates and seeing running back opportunity totals of 14 and 10, respectively. Behind Gaskin, expect Salvon Ahmed (six and nine opportunities) and Malcolm Brown (five and five opportunities, all rushes) to mix in with low upside roles. The matchup yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of 3.375 and the Raiders have overperformed in that area to start the year. There’s not much to love here outside of the fact that Gaskin has seen five targets in each game thus far and now has a quarterback with the shallowest air yards per attempt value in the league (small sample).

The Dolphins are expecting wide receiver Will Fuller to make his season (and team) debut in Week 3. Fuller is of great significance to the overall function of this offense as his elite speed opposite DeVante Parker should serve to open up the underneath areas of the field for tight end Mike Gesicki and rookie slot man Jaylen Waddle. Fuller’s individual fantasy prospectus takes a large hit with Brissett at quarterback. Jaylen Waddle’s 5.6 aDOT highlights the short-area nature of his routes thus far, which lines up well with Brissett’s skillset (more of a timing quarterback as opposed to a slinger). DeVante Parker (11.9 aDOT), Will Fuller, and Mike Gesicki (11.1 aDOT with a ridiculously low 2.0 YAC) are unlikely to mesh well with what Brissett can provide.

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

John Gruden’s west coast, spread offense would like to incorporate heavy rush rates early in the game in an attempt to wear down and open up the opposing defense. Unfortunately, running back Josh Jacobs appears set to miss his second game in a row with an ankle injury. With Jacobs likely out, expect heavy pass rates as evidenced by Las Vegas’ Week 2 game against the Steelers, where they held a hefty 68% situation-neutral pass rate. Derek Carr has thrown the ball a whopping 93 times over the first two games and we should expect more of the same here. The emergence of second year wide receivers Henry Ruggs III (15.8 aDOT) and Bryan Edwards (14.9 aDOT) has allowed Gruden and Carr to attack all areas of the field, opening up much needed operating room for tight end Darren Waller underneath (9.9 aDOT).

Running back Kenyan Drake saw a solid 71% snap rate in Week 2 with Jacobs out, handling 13 running back opportunities in the process. Fullback Alec Ingold was next up as far as snap rate goes at 26%, followed by straight ahead runner Peyton Barber (13 rush attempts and no targets) at 29%. I’d expect those snap rates to largely remain consistent heading into Week 3, with the possibility of additional rush attempts as a team against an opponent that runs a prevent-zone defense best attacked on the ground. The matchup yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of a paltry 3.31 yards primarily due to the Raiders’ poor run-blocking offensive line (dead last in the NFL in adjusted line yards metric).

Regardless of what is the best way to attack Miami’s defense, it is highly likely we see this offense adopt a pass-heavy approach in the absence of Josh Jacobs. Miami has allowed a below average 63.89% completion rate thus far, with a below average 9.5 yards allowed per completion. This defense is built to keep the game in front of them and tackle well after the catch. This sets up best for Darren Waller underneath (the cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones form one of the best corner duos in the league). 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likely this game plays rather ugly throughout as each team struggles to move the football. The team likeliest to break through first is the Raiders, and the best chance for them to do so is through Darren Waller against linebacker and Nik Needham’s coverage, all of whom are ill equipped to handle the athletic tight end. This should ensure continued aerial aggression from Miami and lead to additional offensive plays run from scrimmage for both teams, which leaves some level of intrigue from each side.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • LV is second in plays per game with 72
  • LV is seventh in points scored, tied for 10th in points allowed
  • MIA ranks fifth fewest in total points per game with 34 (MIA + opponent)
  • MIA is 32nd in points scored, tied for 18th in points allowed
  • PFF grades the LV defense at tied for sixth, the MIA defense at third

MIA Passing Attack

  • Tua Tagovailoa is the 31st ranked QB per PFF grade (55.9) in 2021
  • Tua has already been ruled out
  • Jacoby Brisset received a 72.3 from PFF in relief of Tua last week, good for 17th this season
  • Jacoby’s DK log as a starter for Indy in 2019: 16.5 // 18.3 // 23.8 // 23.5 // 11.9 // 31.6 // 10.5 // 2.8 (only 15 snaps) // 16.1 // 13.2 // 17.7 // 22.6 // 7.3 // 15.7 // 6.2
  • QB’s are averaging 17.4 ppg against LV this year
  • LV is allowing 41.6 ppg to WRs
  • Will Fuller was inactive for personal reasons in Week 2 but is on track to play Week 3
  • Fuller’s PFF grade last year: 86.2
  • Fuller’s DK totals indoors last season (albeit with Deshaun Watson throwing the ball): 25.8 // 15.8 // 12.5 // 14 // 38.1
  • MIA’s snap share order among pass catchers: DeVante Parker (78.1%), Jaylen Waddle (70.3%), Mike Gesicki (53.1%), Albert Wilson (49.2%), Durham Smythe (46.9%)
  • Target share: Parker (22.5%), Waddle (19.7%), Wilson (11.3%), Gesicki (11.3%), Smythe (2.8%)
  • In 84 games, Parker has scored over 20 DK points (less than 4x Week 3 salary) 13 times. All but two instances were below 25 (25.1 & 37.9)
  • Waddle has scored 16.1 & 9.8 points
  • LV has ceded 6.3 ppg to the TE position this season, sixth fewest
  • Gesicki was sixth among TEs in target share last season with 15.2%
  • His share has reduced by 25.7% through two weeks
  • He was scoreless in Week 1, then produced 7.1 DK points in the 35-0 loss to the Bills at home

MIA RBs

  • LV allowed 29.9 ppg to RBs last season, 29th in the league
  • Through two weeks, 25.2 ppg/21st
  • Myles Gaskin’s snap share of 57.8% is less than Kenyan Drake and just above Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb
  • Salvon Ahmed has a 26.6% snap share
  • Gaskin averages 11.5 touches per game, Ahmed 5.5
  • Last year, Gaskin averaged 18.3
  • Gaskin’s notable outputs in 10 games last year: 20.1 // 16.6 // 33.9 // 15.1 // 17.7

Derek Carr

  • Carr is PFF’s 9th ranked QB, with an overall grade of 81
  • He finished last season 9th as well
  • MIA has allowed 17.4 ppg to QBs
  • Last year that was 19.7
  • Carr leads the league in passing yards, his ADoT ranks ninth
  • Carr averages 19.46 ppg at home in September
  • Notable DK totals from that sample: 30.34 // 25 // 21.2 // 36.58 // 22.58 // 28

LV Passing Attack

  • Darren Waller leads the team in snap share with 93.4%
  • Next closest is Bryan Edwards at 69.7%
  • Waller leads in target share with 28%
  • Next closest is Hunter Renfrow at 17.2%
  • Henry Ruggs is third with 12.9%
  • Waller’s 28% target share dominates the TE position (Kelce is second with 22.4%)
  • His 26 targets are six more than second place (Hockenson – 20)
  • Miami has only allowed 11.1 ppg to the position, but they haven’t played a team whose offense operates through TE like the Raiders do
  • At home in September, Waller has scored: 14 // 12.3 // 31.3 // 29.5
  • MIA allows 39.8 ppg to WRs, 22nd in the league
  • Bryan Edwards has cracked double digit points in just two out of 10 games (12.1 & 13.1)
  • Henry Ruggs has 12 targets in two weeks, and 1 TD
  • Ruggs has produced 3 notable scores in 15 games: 22.8 // 16.4 // 25.5
  • Renfrow’s notable scores (out of 31 games): 18.8 // 17.4 // 26.7 // 25.2 // 20.4 

LV RBs

  • Josh Jacobs has been a home favorite five times
  • His DK log: 27 // 17.4 // 12.9 // 32.6 // 20.4
  • MIA has allowed 29.9 ppg to the RB position in 2021, 27th in the NFL
  • Gruden has called Jacobs “very questionable” for Week 3
  • In Week 2 without Jacobs, Kenyan Drake saw 71% of the snaps while Peyton Barber handled 29%
  • The touches were even with 13 to Barber and 12 to Drake
  • Drake’s DK log as a home favorite last year: 11.5 // 8.9 // 13.9 // 6 // 13
  • Barber has scored 4x his Week 3 salary ($4,300) three times out of 58 career games
  • Barber has yet to see a target for LV; Drake has averaged 5.5 per game