Dolphins (

20.75) at
Raiders (

24.25)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Likely to see a pass-heavy approach from both teams here, with two of the bottom run-blocking offensive lines in the league pitted against each other
• Look for Miami to work primarily short-intermediate over the middle of the field through the air, while Las Vegas holds the personnel to stretch Miami vertically
• Expect a lot of offensive plays to be run from scrimmage here, with questionable drive success rate from each team
• Likely to be an ugly game with the possibility for one or two usable pieces from volume alone

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami has played at the league’s 25^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and 26^th overall, with the ninth highest situation-neutral pass rate and 28^th-ranked adjusted line yards value. It’s likely not a case of them not wanting to run the football (when considering their above average defense), it’s simply that they can’t. They built this team all offseason around Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game, and now Tua is out with fractured ribs. Jacoby Brissett will now be charged with managing a game plan put together over the course of a week against an aggressive opponent that can put up points against the best of them.

Running back Myles Gaskin has maintained his lead back role over the first two weeks, garnering 54% and 61% snap rates and seeing running back opportunity totals of 14 and 10, respectively. Behind Gaskin, expect Salvon Ahmed (six and nine opportunities) and Malcolm Brown (five and five opportunities, all rushes) to mix in with low upside roles. The matchup yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of 3.375 and the Raiders have overperformed in that area to start the year. There’s not much to love here outside of the fact that Gaskin has seen five targets in each game thus far and now has a quarterback with the shallowest air yards per attempt value in the league (small sample).

The Dolphins are expecting wide receiver Will Fuller to make his season (and team) debut in Week 3. Fuller is of great significance to the overall function of this offense as his elite speed opposite DeVante Parker should serve to open up the underneath areas of the field for tight end Mike Gesicki and rookie slot man Jaylen Waddle. Fuller’s individual fantasy prospectus takes a large hit with Brissett at quarterback. Jaylen Waddle’s 5.6 aDOT highlights the short-area nature of his routes thus far, which lines up well with Brissett’s skillset (more of a timing quarterback as opposed to a slinger). DeVante Parker (11.9 aDOT), Will Fuller, and Mike Gesicki (11.1 aDOT with a ridiculously low 2.0 YAC) are unlikely to mesh well with what Brissett can provide.

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

John Gruden’s west coast, spread offense would like to incorporate heavy rush rates early in the game in an attempt to wear down and open up the opposing defense. Unfortunately, running back Josh Jacobs appears set to miss his second game in a row with an ankle injury. With Jacobs likely out, expect heavy pass rates as evidenced by Las Vegas’ Week 2 game against the Steelers, where they held a hefty 68% situation-neutral pass rate. Derek Carr has thrown the ball a whopping 93 times over the first two games and we should expect more of the same here. The emergence of second year wide receivers Henry Ruggs III (15.8 aDOT) and Bryan Edwards (14.9 aDOT) has allowed Gruden and Carr to attack all areas of the field, opening up much needed operating room for tight end Darren Waller underneath (9.9 aDOT).

Running back Kenyan Drake saw a solid 71% snap rate in Week 2 with Jacobs out, handling 13 running back opportunities in the process. Fullback Alec Ingold was next up as far as snap rate goes at 26%, followed by straight ahead runner Peyton Barber (13 rush attempts and no targets) at 29%. I’d expect those snap rates to largely remain consistent heading into Week 3, with the possibility of additional rush attempts as a team against an opponent that runs a prevent-zone defense best attacked on the ground. The matchup yields a net-adjusted line yards metric of a paltry 3.31 yards primarily due to the Raiders’ poor run-blocking offensive line (dead last in the NFL in adjusted line yards metric).

Regardless of what is the best way to attack Miami’s defense, it is highly likely we see this offense adopt a pass-heavy approach in the absence of Josh Jacobs. Miami has allowed a below average 63.89% completion rate thus far, with a below average 9.5 yards allowed per completion. This defense is built to keep the game in front of them and tackle well after the catch. This sets up best for Darren Waller underneath (the cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones form one of the best corner duos in the league). 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likely this game plays rather ugly throughout as each team struggles to move the football. The team likeliest to break through first is the Raiders, and the best chance for them to do so is through Darren Waller against linebacker and Nik Needham’s coverage, all of whom are ill equipped to handle the athletic tight end. This should ensure continued aerial aggression from Miami and lead to additional offensive plays run from scrimmage for both teams, which leaves some level of intrigue from each side.

DFS+ Interpretation ::