Kickoff Sunday, Sep 26th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
21.25) at

Titans (
25.75)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
2nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
10th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
30th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
26th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
27th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
16th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
25th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
22nd DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOHNSON86 >>
  • Tennessee has played from behind for all of regulation in both games so far this season.
  • Weakness vs weakness: Colts offense vs Titans defense
  • Indianapolis played much better in Week 2 than they did in Week 1, but relied on some fluky plays to keep it close later in the game.
  • Both teams are likely to have similar approaches to this game, with one of them much more likely to be successful

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Carson Wentz sprained both of his ankles late in the game against the Rams. He was unable to play the last drive and Jacob Eason finished it out with an interception. Wentz is highly questionable for this week, and even if cleared, it is hard to see him being very effective with limited mobility in both legs. If Wentz is unable to play, Eason is not a high level talent and is a non-factor with his legs which will further limit the ability of the Indianapolis offense to create dynamic chunk plays.

The Colts are going to have a very straightforward game plan with a heavy dose of the running game behind their traditionally strong offensive line, though their line has struggled mightily through their first two games. Look for the Colts to also get creative in their use of screens, short-area passing, formations, and personnel, as they will need to find ways to sustain drives. The Titans defense was very successful bottling up the running game of the Seahawks last week after giving up a lot of rushing yards to the Cardinals. The Seahawks are likely a more fair comparison for the Colts, as the Colts don’t have Kyler Murray back there to hold linebackers and safeties from filling gaps. And while the Seahawks were limited on the ground, they did exploit the Titans porous secondary with multiple explosive downfield plays. Unfortunately for the Colts, they also do not have the talent at QB or in their receiving corps to attack the back end consistently.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee trailed from start to finish in Week 1, then trailed by multiple scores for the last two and a half quarters against Seattle before tying the game with under a minute left and winning in overtime. Those game scripts are entirely opposite of how Head Coach Mike Vrabel wants this team to play and how they are traditionally built. This week sets up differently and the Titans will look to impose their will and get back to their identity after being lucky to escape the first two weeks at 1-1.

Realistically speaking, the Jaguars and Texans are close to expansion level teams. While the Colts are 0-2, they have the coaching, culture, and enough talent on the roster to provide the only realistic threat to the Titans for the division. The Titans are likely well aware of that and understand the opportunity they have here to deliver a big blow to their only “competition.” I would expect the Titans to come out energized and take it to the Colts early on both sides of the ball. While they will give a heavy load to Derrick Henry, Vrabel also has an aggressive nature to him and will likely take some shots downfield early against a Colts secondary that has shown vulnerabilities through two weeks. The Colts usually prefer to play zone coverage and are not prone to blitz, instead using their front four to get home. The Titans are facing some injuries to their offensive line, so they may have some issues creating holes to get Derrick Henry to the second level and will likely need to use a running back or tight end to help protect Ryan Tannehill on passing plays. If the line is able to give Tannehill time, he may be able to highlight his high profile wide receivers who are as physically imposing as any WR duo you will find in the league.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Colts are unlikely to “control” the tempo of this game as they simply lack the talent on offense to do so. They will simply be “holding on for dear life,” hoping variance and some lucky bounces give them a shot late in the game. The Colts do have a very good front seven and run defense that has stood up well to start the year, so despite the intent of the Titans to impose their will on the ground, it will likely not be that simple. I would expect a slow paced game early on with some Colts punts and long Titans drives. The Colts may be able to get an early score on scripted plays and do some creative things to take the Titans off guard, but they are unlikely to sustain consistent drives with limitations from their QB position. This game will likely have a slow tempo to it, with the Titans gradually pulling away and becoming more aggressive if it stays close into the second half.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • Carson Wentz is questionable with ankle sprains to both ankles, and his backup Jacob Eason has only taken NFL snaps in the 2021 preseason
  • TEN has already allowed 38 & 30 points to ARI & SEA
  • This matchup has gone back and forth with Reich & Vrabel, with both teams going 2-0 on the road

IND QBs:

  • TEN faced the 2nd highest amount of passes in 2020, allowing the 4th most pass yds & 2nd most pass TDs
  • TEN has allowed the 6th most pass yds & 3rd most pass TDs through two weeks
  • Rivers averaged 301.5 yds, 1.5 TDs in this matchup a year ago, with Brisset also running in 3 short TDs
  • Eason came in and almost immediately threw an INT vs LAR in W2
  • TEN intercepted the 10th most passes in 2020; has just 1 on Kyler through two weeks

IND Pass Catchers:

  • IND targets in 2021: Pittman (4, 12) // Pascal (5, 6) // Campbell (3, -) // Doyle (4, 8)
  • Pascal lead with 3 TDs, but Pittman leads with 152 rec yds
  • Eason targets: Pascal (2) // Pittman (2) // Doyle (1)
  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • WRs vs TEN in 2021: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24), Moore (10.8) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21), Metcalf (11.3)
  • IND WRs vs TEN in 2020: Hilton (4:40; 4:81:1) // Pittman (7:101; 2:28) // Pascal (4:33; 1:23)
  • Doyle’s 12 targets trail only Pittman; two RZ targets
  • TEs Maxx Williams, Gerald Everett, & Will Dissly have been quiet vs TEN thus far
  • Only seven teams faced fewer TE targets in 2020, but 18 teams allowed fewer TE yds

IND RBs:

  • TEN allowed the 7th most RB DK pts in 2020
  • RB rushing vs TEN in 2021: Edmonds (12:63), Conner (16:53) // Carson (13:31:2), Collins (1:25)
  • Taylor rushing in 2021: 17:56 vs SEA // 15:51 vs LAR
  • Edmonds also added 43 rec yds vs TEN
  • Nyheim Hines dominated this matchup through the air in 2020, going 5:45:1 and 8:66 on 16 targets
  • Hines scored 28.5 & 17.5 DK pts in the two games
  • Hines has 8 & 2 targets so far, running routes on 22/44 & 19/44 dropbacks
  • Taylor has 7 & 1 targets so far, running routes on 18/44 & 15/44 dropbacks
  • Taylor’s DK scores as an Underdog: 15.4 // 10.4 // 16.4 // 17.6 // 6.3

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Wilson & Stafford have averaged 266 yds, 3 TD through two games vs IND in 2021
  • Tanny bounced back from poor W1 for 347 pass yds vs SEA in W2 (plus a questionable reversed TD to Julio)
  • Tanny threw for just 147 & 221 yds in this matchup last year, as Darius Leonard being out opened the door for big Henry games (just 27 & 22 pass att for Tanny)
  • 2020: The game scores of his 7 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24

TEN WRs:

  • After four low scores as a Home Favorite early in his rookie year (including two with Mariota), Brown as a Home Favorite since has scored: 26.5 // 28.4 // 22.8 // 30.3 // 23.1 // 11.7 // 15.4 DK pts
  • Brown went 1:21 & 4:98:1 vs IND in 2020, but also dropped a sure 70-yd TD
  • IND held Metcalf & Woods to about 60 rec yds each, but Lockett & Kupp have combined for 263 yds, 4 TDs vs IND in the first two weeks
  • Targets so far: Brown (8, 9) // Julio (6, 8) // Rogers (6, 5)
  • TEN had a 100+ yd WR in 10/16 games last year, and now 1/2 so far in 2021
  • Julio went for 8:128:1 in 2019 vs Eberflus’s IND defense

Derrick Henry:

  • RBs vs IND in 2021: Carson (16:91) // Henderson (13:53:1), Michel (10:46)
  • Henry vs IND with Tanny: 26:149:1 // 19:103 // 27:178:3
  • Henry’s touches in 2021: (17 att, 4 tg) // (35 att, 6 tg)
  • Henry has scored 26+ DK pts in 9/19 of his games with Tannehill as a Favorite: 32.5 // 27.6 // 26.9 // 42.1 // 30 // 43.4 // 39.2 // 28.2 // 39
  • He has also scored under 10 DK pts in 5 of the other 10 games