Kickoff Sunday, Sep 26th 4:05pm Eastern

Jets (
15.75) at

Broncos (
25.75)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
17th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
19th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
23rd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
14th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
20th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
21st DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOhnson86 >>
  • These two teams have had completely different starts to their seasons through two weeks
  • Denver has an incredible record at home in September historically
  • Difficult to see a game flow situation where the pace increases dramatically for either side
  • Both teams are in very similar situations this week as they were in for Week 2

How New York Will Try To Win ::

New York had a ton of momentum and positive energy entering this season with a new staff and some shiny new toys on offense headlined by #2 pick Zach Wilson. It took two weeks for the honeymoon to end, with home fans booing Wilson off the field in a Week 2 drubbing at the hands of the Patriots. The Jets have already lost their best offensive lineman in Mekhi Becton and now face a terrorizing Broncos pass rush. The Broncos gave Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars all sorts of fits last week, holding their offense scoreless after an opening drive touchdown. Jacksonville was at home while the Jets are on the road this week and are arguably worse at every position offensively than the Jaguars, so they are in for a long day. The Broncos also have a historically terrific record at home in the month of September as teams struggle with the high altitude and difficult environment. 

This section is supposed to be about “how New York will try to win,” but it would probably be more aptly titled “how New York will try to survive” based on everything just discussed. The Jets will try to use their running scheme and short passes early in the game to protect Zach Wilson. Head Coach Robert Saleh spoke after Week 2 about the need for Zach Wilson to learn that “boring plays are OK,” a reference to Wilson’s aggressive tendencies that led to four Patriots interceptions. That tells me that the staff is likely to rein him in through their play calling and kind of force the issue with Wilson by not giving him as many opportunities to rip it downfield. This is unlikely to be effective in this matchup, but slowing it down and not turning it over is the only chance the Jets have to shorten this game and hope for some fluky bounces to give them a chance.

How Denver Will Try To Win ::

Teddy Bridgewater has looked terrific through two weeks, completing 77.1% of his passes (second best mark in the NFL), while posting a passer rating of 120.7 — good for sixth best in the NFL (behind some guys named Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray…and the great Tyrod Taylor) — with four touchdowns and no picks. Furthermore, Teddy ranks fifth in the NFL in average intended air yards — shedding his short-area reputation to lean on the stable of weapons he has that can attack at all levels of the field. In Week 2 against Jacksonville, the Broncos were able to attack in pretty much any manner they chose to, and the same should be the case against this Jets defense that has started the season ranked 13th in DVOA against the pass (a number that is certain to get worse) and 26th in DVOA against the run. In that Week 2 game, the Broncos were relatively balanced, calling on Teddy to throw 34 times while Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams each took 13 carries. So far, the Broncos have faced the middling Giants defense and the very bad, no good Jaguars, so there is certainly still time for Teddy to turn into a pumpkin. But this is not the spot where we should expect it to happen, as the Broncos should again be able to successfully attack in whatever way they want.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The most likely way this game plays out is with the Broncos taking control of this game early. Crazy things happen in the NFL, and you could come up with some scenarios in which the Jets grab a lead (a strong first drive, or a Denver turnover, etc.), but even in that situation, it’s hard to see the Jets taking a big enough lead for the Broncos to be jolted out of the approach we’ve seen from them over the last couple weeks. Assuming a standard number of plays from this team (the Broncos rank 30th in pace of play on the young season, so we certainly shouldn’t be expecting them to try to speed things up here), we should again see Bridgewater tossing around 35 pass attempts and the running backs divvying up the workload in the backfield as the Broncos eventually seal away this game.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Per Warren Sharp, the Jets leading scorer last year was their kicker. He played in just nine games
  • Their third leading scorer was the backup kicker. He played in only six games
  • The backup kicker almost doubled the points scored by the fourth leading scorer
  • On Wednesday evening, this game has the lowest Vegas total on the slate with 41

Zach Wilson

  • Wilson completed 73.5% of his passes for 11 ypa in his final year at BYu
  • Through two games, he has completed 55.7% for 6.7
  • Jets QBs were pressured on 43.6% of dropbacks last year
  • Wilson has faced the most pressure through two games
  • 24.4% of those pressures have led to sacks
  • Wilson’s 10 sacks lead the league
  • His 5 INTs are tied for the league lead with fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence
  • Denver has allowed an average of 14.1 DK points to the QB position in 2021

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Denver has allowed 37.9 DK ppg to the WR position in 2021
  • Corey Davis finished fifth in yards per route run last season
  • He’s at 45th through two games
  • Davis has played on 80.4% of team snaps with a 17.1% target share
  • Davis scored 26.7 points against Carolina
  • He managed just 2.8 versus New England
  • Davis has caught the only two TDs among the WRs
  • Elijah Moore leads the team in snap share with 81.9%
  • His target share is identical to Davis
  • Moore has scored 0.7 & 8.7 points
  • Slot WR Braxton Berrios has played on just 58% of snaps but leads the team in target share with 25.7%
  • Tight ends Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin have combined for 14 targets. They’ve caught nine of them for 66 yards

NYJ RBs

  • Ty Johnson’s snap share: 49.3%
  • Michael Carter’s snap share: 35.5%
  • Tevin Coleman’s snap share: 17.4%
  • Touch count order is Carter (18), Ty (17), Tevin (14)
  • Total DK points scored: Ty – 8.6, Carter – 13.8, Tevin – 4.8
  • Denver allows the second fewest DK ppg so far, with 8.8 to the RB position

Teddy Bridgewater

  • Teddy supported strong fantasy campaigns for Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel last season
  • He’s sixth in ADoT, second in completion %, and sixth in passer rating through two games
  • The Jets have allowed 13.8 ppg, fifth lowest, to the QB position
  • Last year, they finished averaging 24.1, third most
  • Teddy’s DK log last year: 19.4 // 14.68 // 14.6 // 27.24 // 23.82 // 11.44 // 19.16 // 13.04 // 31.3 // 20.04 // 14.88 // 20.42 // 17.92 // 10.58 // 5.74
  • This year: 20.46 // 24.22

DEN Passing Attack

  • DEN’s snap share order among pass catchers: Courtland Sutton (78.5%), Noah Fant (77%). Tim Patrick (71.9%), Albert Okwuegbunam (54.8%), KJ Hamler (54.1%)
  • Target share: Courtland Sutton (21.4%), Noah Fant (20%), Tim Patrick (11.4%), Albert (10%), Hamler (10%)
  • NYJ allowed 39.6 ppg to the WR position last season (20th)
  • So far, they’ve allowed 25.6 (third)
  • Sutton has averaged 10.41 ppg at home. Sutton’s notable DK totals at home: 24.2 // 14.7 // 17.3 // 23.4
  • Fant is fourth in target share among all TEs
  • Fant averages 8.86 ppg at home. Notable scores: 11.1 // 23.5 // 19.1 // 11.7 // 20.8
  • Patrick’s notable DK scores in 33 games: 16.6 // 14.3 // 26.3 (@ NYJ) // 17.1 // 19.9 // 20.4
  • KJ Hamler’s notable DK scores in 14 games: 15 // 22.6

DEN RBs

  • NYJ has allowed 31.1 ppg to RBs in 2021, 28th in the NFL
  • In 2020, they allowed 24.7, 20th in the NFL
  • Melvin Gordon leads rookie Javonte Williams in snap share, 54.8% to 45.2%
  • They are tied for 29 touches
  • Gordon has scored the only touchdown among RBs on DEN
  • Gordon’s DK log as a favorite with a 5 point spread or greater: 14 // 15.3 // 21.8 // 18.4 // 30.6 // 33.9 // 22 // 21.6 // 9.6 // 7.8 // 22.7 // 8.9 (Week 1 @ JAC)
  • Gordon has scored 23.8 and 8.9 DK points
  • Javonte has scored 5.1 and 8.4 DK points