Kickoff Sunday, Sep 26th 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
19.25) at
Bills (
26.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY MJohnson86 >>
  • Due to matchup and then game environment, Buffalo has not been the dynamic, pass-happy team we expected to see this season through two weeks
  • Washington is coming off a big divisional win and ten days of rest
  • Game environment here will likely depend on the play calling and efficiency of the Buffalo offense
  • Washington has several dynamic playmakers but will face a tough test against a Buffalo defense that is playing at a very high level

HOW Washington WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Taylor Heinicke has looked very good, especially relative to expectations, since taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1. Heinicke also had a stretch at the end of the 2020 season where he was the Washington starter and fared admirably against very good competition, so it is likely that the competence he has shown this year is real and not just a small sample size mirage. Washington won a wild Thursday night game in Week 2 against a mediocre Giants team in a game that went back and forth at the end with both teams trying to find a way to lose and Washington coming out with the victory. This matchup on the road will present by far their toughest test of the year.

Washington is likely to try to control the game and feed Antonio Gibson the ball at a high rate while also getting the ball out of Heinicke’s hands quickly. Buffalo is a very difficult place to play and their defense has been great this season, surrendering only 16 offensive points combined in their first two games of the season. Washington has a much better offensive line and running game than either of the Bills first two opponents so it will be interesting to see if they can impose their will here and pound the ball to give Heinicke easier situations to throw from. Buffalo has a shutdown corner in Tre’Davious White along with great scheme and personnel in their secondary and pass rush. Washington will need to get creative with their primary pass-catcher Terry McLaurin to create opportunities for him to make plays. The Bills also have very athletic linebackers who cover ground well sideline to sideline and should be able to make plays on short passes to prevent short gains from turning into long ones. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott is one of the brighter defensive minds in the game and should have some creative looks to throw at Heinicke as the Bills usually play zone but can also mix it up depending on their opponent. I expect Washington to use their backs heavily early in this game and also to dial up some looks for tight end Logan Thomas.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Buffalo has not looked like the offensive team we saw tear through the AFC last year behind a high volume and high-efficiency passing attack. The Bills threw often but had little success in Week 1 as the Steelers had a great game plan and held the Bills to 16 points. In Week 2, the Dolphins laid a complete egg and lost their starting QB early in the game which led to the Bills taking their foot off the gas and never needing to throw with their usual volume. 

This week will be an interesting test as Washington presents Buffalo with the easiest matchup in the secondary they have seen all year, although it wouldn’t be fair to call them an easy opponent. I expect Buffalo to get back to the team we saw in 2020 this week. Washington has a very good defensive line but gave up a good game to Daniel Jones in Week 2 and allowed Justin Herbert to throw for 337 yards in Week 1. Washington’s defense is very good against the run and the matchup dictates more success through the air, so a spread attack with pass heavy tendencies is likely in the cards for Buffalo here. Buffalo has shown the awareness in the past to abandon the run, almost completely, in matchups like this where there is a clear “path of least resistance”. After laying an egg at home in Week 1, it is safe to expect Buffalo to be very aggressive from the outset in this return home to the #BillsMafia.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW :: 

Buffalo will be aggressive from the outset on both sides of the ball. As outlined earlier, they will find more success through the air and surely want to get their high octane offense looking like itself again. On the other side of the ball, Washington will attempt to slow things down but the Bills will likely give extra attention up front and bring pressure on Heinicke to shrink the field and force him to beat them downfield. The likeliest game flow is that the Bills take control early and it is a matter of whether they get field goals or touchdowns in the first half that will decide if this game can flip the switch. If the Bills are unable to convert drives into touchdowns, we are likely in store for a similar game to what each of these teams saw in Week 1 — a 23-16 loss to the Steelers for Buffalo and a 20-16 loss to the Chargers for Washington.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Washington’s offensive line features three out of five starters with a PFF grade rank in the top 20 at their position. Their lowest ranking is 36th
  • Washington’s defensive front seven features three starters in the top 16 at their position
  • Buffalo’s best offensive lineman ranks 24th at their position
  • Three out of five offensive line starters for Buffalo rank 62nd or worse at their position
  • The Bills had a 57.9% pressure rate in Week 2
  • Bills are second in combined plays per game so far
  • Washington is seventh
  • Bills are fourth in no-huddle rate, Washington is sixth

WAS Passing Attack

  • Taylor Heinicke’s PFF grades in his three starts: 46.5 // 92.0 (losing to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round last season) // 73.4
  • In Week 2, Heinicke completed 34/46 passes for 336 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, good for 24 DK points
  • Buffalo is allowing 9.6 DK points per game to the QB position in 2021
  • Terry McLaurin has a 79.7 PFF grade, 12th out of 107 WRs
  • McLaurin’s DK totals in games that close with a Vegas total line of at least 45 points: 10.2 // 13.5 // 16.2 // 13.4 // 18.2 // 5.6 // 24.8 // 12.6 // 28.5 // 17.2
  • Since entering the league in 2019, McLaurin has cracked 20 DK points on seven occasions
  • Out of 107 WRs graded by PFF, Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown rank 92nd & 98th, respectively
  • Humphries notable DK scores since 2015: 18.4 // 15.8 // 15.3 // 17.9 // 19.1 // 17.4 // 28.9 // 20.2 // 15.9 // 19.4 // 15.6 // 22
  • Dyami Brown has a team snap % of 89.7 and 10 total targets
  • He’s scored 7.2 total DK points in both weeks combined
  • WR groups against Buffalo have averaged 31.5 DK points per game in 2021
  • Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee are the only TEs to play on 100% of team snaps through two weeks
  • Logan has just 10 total targets
  • Last season, Buffalo ranked 29th in points allowed to the position with 15.2 per game
  • Two games in, they are 10th with eight DK points per game
  • Logan’s notable DK scores under Ron Rivera: 12 // 12.4 // 13.3 // 26.1 // 13.42 // 16 // 13.2 // 13.7

WAS RBs

  • Antonio Gibson has 79 snaps in two games
  • That’s a 62.7% team snap share
  • JD McKissic has 51, for a 40.5% share
  • In Week 1, Gibson had 5 targets to McKissic’s 1
  • In Week 2, McKissic had 6 targets to Gibson’s 2
  • Gibson’s career DK totals: 9.3 // 12.8 // 5.5 // 9.9 // 39.6 // 17.4 // 22.5 // 13.5 // 21.8 // 9.5 // 10.1 // 22.8 // 14 // 12.2 // 6.4
  • McKissic’s notable DK totals since 2016: 20.3 // 23.2 // 25.7 // 10.6 // 17.9 // 17.2 // 14.4 // 10.9 // 10.6 // 11.5 // 16.2 // 10.3
  • Buffalo’s DK points per game rank under Sean McDermott, from 2017-2020: 32nd // 25th // 12th // 18th
  • Through two games in 2021, the Bills ranked third, with only 9.2 DK points per game to the RB position

Josh Allen

  • Last season’s QB 1 in overall DK points scored, and third in points per game with 27.3, Josh Allen is currently QB 20 in overall points (just ahead of Taylor Heinicke) and points per game (17.9)
  • Allen began the 2020 season against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets
  • In the final, pre-2020 defensive rankings, PFF ranked those two teams at 20th and 22nd
  • The 2021 campaign began against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins
  • Through two weeks, in defensive grades, they rank third and ninth
  • The Washington Football Team ranks 22nd
  • In their 2019 meeting, Allen scored 17.6 DK points
  • Both teams have changed tremendously since then
  • Through two weeks, WFT ranks 21st in DK points allowed to QBs with an average of 23.9
  • Last Thursday, WFT allowed Daniel Jones to complete 22 of 32 passes for 249 yards and 1 TD, plus nine rushing attempts for 95 yards and 1 TD. His 29.5 DK points were good for fourth in Week 2
  • Current Vegas total as of Wednesday afternoon is 45
  • Allen’s DK totals in games with 50% snaps that finish with 50 or fewer points scored (starting with his 2018 rookie year): 5.6 // 27.7 // 4.9 // 10.2 // 5.4 // 26.3 // 33.7 // 24.3 // 19.8 // 13.7 // 20 // 22.2 // 19.3 // 11.7 // 18.5 // 18.3 // 17.6 // 25.4 // 20 // 23.5 // 11.7 // 17.4 // 20.6 // 33.2 // 16.1 // 20.4 // 13.5 // 17.5 // 19.3 // 35.3 // 18.2 // 17.7

BUF Passing Attack

  • The Washington starting CBs hold current rankings of 60th and 95th out of 102 per PFF
  • Top ranked secondary member, safety Kamren Curl, is currently 11th out of 79 safeties. Fellow safety, Landon Collins, ranks 70th
  • WR rooms have averaged 48.5 DK points against WFT so far in 2021, 26th most in the league
  • In 2020, those figures were 32.3 and third
  • Last season, the Bills WR room led the league with 57.1 ppg
  • Second place scored 48.9
  • Stefon Diggs averaged 10.4 targets during the 2020 regular season, third most
  • He had 13 in Week 1 and eight in Week 2, an average of 11
  • Diggs DK totals for Buffalo in games with 75% snaps that ended with 50 or fewer points: 16.6 // 16.6 // 10.8 // 15.2 // 10.9 // 32.1 // 44.5 // 15.9 // 16
  • Emmanuel Sanders has played just one less snap than Diggs through two weeks
  • He’s only scored 9.2 & 6.8 DK points
  • Sanders has run 30% of his routes out of the slot, 70% out wide
  • Cole Beasley has played on 77.3% of team snaps
  • Cole’s DK totals have been 14 and 7.6
  • Cole’s DK points in Buffalo in games that finished with 50 or fewer points: 9 // 12.3 // 14.8 // 14.5 // 5.1 // 13.1 // 9.3 // 11.4 // 19.6 // 26 // 14.9 // 1.6 // 20.8 // 9.8 // 14.5 // 25.2 // 4.4 // 9.3 // 9.1 // 4.7 // 14 // 7.6
  • Gabriel Davis received zero targets in last week’s shutout victory over the Dolphins
  • He received an injury in Week 1
  • Last season, Davis played on 73.12% of team snaps
  • Gabriel’s DK totals in games with 50 or fewer points in 2020: 3.6 // 1.7 // 2.1 // 16.9 // 10.9 // 6.3
  • Dawson Knox played on 44.68% of snaps in 2020
  • He’s played on 68% through two weeks in 2021
  • Knox has just an 8.3% target share
  • DK totals for Knox in 2021: 8.1 // 9.7

BUF RBs

  • Devin Singletary has played on 71.3% of snaps in 2021
  • Last season, that number was 60%
  • Singletary has had seven total targets in the first two weeks of 2021
  • He had 47 in 16 games last season
  • Singletary’s DK totals in games with 50 or fewer points: 14.8 // 11.7 // 14.9 // 23 // 8 // 15.4 // 19.1 // 17.8 // 9.9 // 5.8 // 10.3 // 5.5 // 6.7 // 10.2 // 12.2 // 4.4 // 7.2
  • Zack Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 1
  • In the Week 2 victory, he played on 18 total offensive snaps
  • Moss ran eight times for 26 yards and two scores, plus two receptions on two targets for eight yards
  • That was good for 16.4 DK pts
  • Moss has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary ($4,500) once