XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The second Monday night game has the Falcons visiting the Raiders for a 44.5 total game with Atlanta favored by 5.5. The Raiders have looked hopelessly inept on offense lately, failing to reach even 20 points since Week 9, while the Falcons have been struggling as well on offense with Kirk Cousins having an almost unbelievable 0:8 TD:INT ratio in his last four games (while going 0-4 and scoring a grand total of 57 points, or 14.25 points per game). Yikes. This one could be ugly.
LAS VEGAS
On the Raiders side, Alexander Mattison is expected to return from injury though word is he will be a backup going forward, which would seem to imply that Las Vegas will be turning over the primary RB role to Sincere McCormick. McCormick is an undrafted free agent but he has been fantastic, running for 5.5 yards per carry in his opportunities (which includes going against the Broncos and Chiefs) while catching 4 of 5 targets. It’s scary to invest in Raiders running backs, but at $7,600 he isn’t priced for a lead back role. If he ends up getting 15+ carries and a couple of targets, he’s underpriced for his role and looks like a reasonable play. To be clear: he’s not a lock play to me, but whereas I generally don’t play Raiders running backs at all, I will play McCormick. Ameer Abdullah predictably struggled on the ground when given a shot at the lead back role and has reverted to a 3rd down back, a role he may even split with Mattison (who has been a capable receiver in his career). It’s not clear to me which of these guys will have that role, and so unless we get some clarity from beat reporters prior to the game, it’s probably just a stay away situation for me outside of small MME sprinkles as Raiders RBs just haven’t been very good at generating meaningful scores this season. If we get news it’s Mattison, he’s overpriced for an RB2 role, but Abdullah would be in play if we have clarity on his role and at least worth a little bit of exposure.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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The Raiders quarterback situation is unclear with Aidan O’Connell questionable and Desmond Ridder as his backup. My general take here is both of these guys suck and I don’t think it makes a material difference who starts in terms of the pass catchers/game outcomes, but it makes a BIG difference on Fanduel where O’Connell is bafflingly set to the bare minimum salary of $5,000. He’ll be massively chalky, but it’s awfully tough to avoid a minimum-salary quarterback with how they accumulate points, and if he plays, I’m fine just locking him on FD. At wide receiver, the Raiders are running out Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, and lately, that’s basically been it as they’ve shifted to running 12 personnel at one of the highest rates in the league (last week Terrace Marshall was the only other WR to see snaps and he saw just 22%). It’s possible Marshall’s role grows a smidge this week as he’s now had longer to adjust to playing more with DJ Turner on injured reserve, but I’d be shocked if he went past 50% of the snaps, especially with how well the two tight ends have been playing. Meyers is a volume hog and has quietly been a pretty good receiver for the past couple of years (getting double-digit targets in four of the past five weeks will do that for you). While his per-catch upside isn’t enormous, he’s relatively cheap for his target share and a solid option (I view him as being very similar to Drake London on a weaker team but at $1k less salary). Tucker is much more volatile – he’s generally been viewed as more of a deep threat, but the Raiders inability to find a quarterback who can throw deep has limited him to just 11.4 yards per catch on the season. He is very, very fast and so always a threat to break one when he gets the ball, and he’s cheap, but his floor is extremely low. Consider him a high-variance play whose ceiling is higher than the kickers he’s priced under, but his floor is lower as well.
At tight end, Brock Bowers is setting records and very much making me regret my best ball tight end strategy. He’s seeing massive target volume (9 targets/game with several games in the teens), he has 933 receiving yards on the season (5th in the NFL!), with the only thing holding him back being his atrocious offense. He’s an awesome play and I want a lot of him. He’s the second best skill position play in the game (even when price is considered) behind only Bijan Robinson. Finally, let’s look at Michael Mayer. Mayer has only been active for 7 games but he’s played a minimum of 44% of the snaps in those games, and then he played 63% two weeks ago and 81% last week as Turner being out led the Raiders to play more 2-TE sets. It’s not a guarantee that continues but if it does, he’s underpriced at $3k. He hasn’t exactly been a volume hog, generally being around 3 targets per game, but if we bump his snaps up from his season averages to the 80% range we can project him for more like 5-6 and at $3k that will play. If you think Bowers and Meyers hog most of the receiving work (which they should), that leaves Tucker and Mayer competing for the rest, and so I’d be cautious playing them together (though I wouldn’t outright block it with a rule), but both are viable and cheap.
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