GAME Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith has $6 million in incentives he is chasing in this game.
- Seattle RB Kenneth Walker III is done for the season, leaving Zach Charbonnet in a lead role with Kenny McIntosh picking up some work as well.
- The Rams have clinched the NFC West and intend to rest many key players, including QB Matthew Stafford. This will leave Jimmy Garropolo as the starting quarterback.
- Kyren Williams may also be held out of this game, which could give talented rookie RB Blake Corum his first big workload of his NFL career.
HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Seahawks had an up-and-down season but ended up on the outside looking in for a top-heavy NFC, which has a whopping five teams with 11+ victories through Week 17, keeping the nine-win Seahawks from potentially getting a Wild Card spot. The Rams won the first head-to-head matchup between these teams and owns the other tiebreakers, which is why Seattle is unable to win the division even if they win this week to tie the Rams with a 10-7 record. This is the first season for head coach Mike Macdonald, however, and he would undoubtedly love to start his head coaching career with a season of double-digit victories and tying for first place in the division. Expect a strong effort from Seattle this week.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith has a lot on the line this week, with three different $2 million incentives attached to his contract. First, he will hit one incentive if Seattle wins. Second, he needs 185 passing yards to hit another incentive. And finally, Smith has an incentive in his contract for having a completion percentage over 69.755% (he is currently at 70.2%), which means that he needs to complete roughly 62% of his passes this week to stay above that mark. Sometimes those incentives are overblown as we evaluate these spots, but $6 million is a lot of money and Macdonald has openly said this week that he wants to get guys to their numbers if they can do so without compromising the game plan. Summarizing Smith’s situation, obviously Seattle is going to try to win this game and the Rams likely resting some key starters is helpful. For the final two, Seattle is fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and we will likely see a high-volume, low-aDOT approach this week.
RB Kenneth Walker is out, leaving Zach Charbonnet as the feature back and Kenny McIntosh as a change-of-pace and breather back. Smith is likely to target Charbonnet and breakout second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at a high rate this week, as well as his tight ends a week after Trey McBride diced up this Rams defensive scheme. One other angle to consider is the importance of DK Metcalf to this organization and the fact that Seattle could use him more aggressively than it has during the second half of the year as a show of respect for what he provides the team. Metcalf suffered a knee injury in Week 7 against Atlanta and missed the next two games. Since then, he has not gone over 70 receiving yards and has scored only one touchdown. There aren’t any “metrics” pointing to a strong Metcalf game, but this is a spot where the nature of Week 18 makes me think he could be in store for a more prominent role.
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