Kickoff Saturday, Jan 4th 4:30pm Eastern

Browns (
12.25) at

Ravens (
29.75)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The first Showdown of our final regular season slate brings us what looks like a wholly unexciting game as the Browns travel to the Ravens. This game has a 41-point total with Baltimore favored by…wait for it…20. Yes, you read that right, the Browns are implied to score just 10.5 points while the Ravens are implied for 30.5. I’m not sure I can remember the last time I’ve seen a spread this large. Given that it’s Week 18 you might think that Baltimore has little motivation here, but they need either to win this game or have the Steelers lose against the Bengals later on Saturday to win the AFC North. If neither of those things happens, they could drop all the down to the 5th or 6th seed. So, they’ll be motivated…but I’m not sure for how long they’ll be motivated if this game gets out of hand quickly. I’m going to write this from the perspective of the Ravens playing a completely normal game and then will touch on how we can consider alternate scenarios at the end. 

BALTIMORE

We’ll start with the Ravens and their backfield. Derrick Henry has been an absolute monster for them all season – he’s averaged over 100 rushing yards per game (just over 110, to be more specific) and he’s averaged a touchdown per game. Turns out that when you put one of the best running backs in the league on one of the best offenses in the league and also paired with a rushing quarterback, good things happen (hi over there to you too, Saquon Barkley). Henry’s the best skill position play in this game hands down (there are only two players averaging over 15 DK points per game in this Showdown – Lamar Jackson and Henry). The only question is about building a strong lineup around him given that he’s $11.8k (and Lamar is $12k). With Justice Hill out, Keaton Mitchell saw his biggest snap count of the season with 27% of the snaps last week (considering he’d only played 4 snaps total on the year that isn’t really saying much, but hey). When we saw Mitchell last year he was incredibly explosive. Last week he took 11 carries for 20 yards. He did have a nice 28 yard reception and let’s keep in mind those were his first touches in roughly a full year, so we can cut him some slack. As a massive home favorite, we have to expect a likelihood of garbage time in this one, and Mitchell’s 12 touches last week in Baltimore’s 31-2 thrashing of the Texans should give us confidence there’s some workload waiting for him. At $2,400, he looks like a really solid value option. Rasheen Ali only had 1 touch and can comfortably be left alone except in the deepest of MME builds. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, we know the deal: the Ravens will run out Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman at wide receiver, with a lot of 12 personnel sets involving Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Flowers has the strongest role here with a 27% target share and 31% share of the air yards. It’s a real WR1 role, the problem is the Ravens just don’t throw all that much unless they have to (witness Lamar’s 15 pass attempts last week, though 5 went to Flowers). It’s a tough spot to evaluate when he’s priced all the way at $9,600…he’s being priced like a WR1, and he is one in more competitive games, but in what projects to be a very low-volume game for Baltimore he’s going to need a touchdown or some really big plays in order to hit on modest volume. Obviously, he fits well in builds predicated on Cleveland keeping the game competitive for a while. Rashod Bateman has had a real breakout season but his volume is even shakier, averaging just 4 targets per game – he almost certainly needs to bring down a deep one to be relevant. Fortunately, Cleveland’s biggest defensive weakness is against deep passing, giving up a glimmer of hope.

Of the two tight ends, Andrews has been by far the more consistent option. After his slow start to the season, Andrews has reached double-digit DK points in his last five games and 9 of his last 11, largely on the strength of 10 receiving touchdowns in that span. Likely, on the other hand, has largely disappeared after his ridiculous Week 1 explosion, only reaching 10 or more DK points four times. Likely is still a viable play, of course, and as he’s priced below the kickers, he’s in the “if he gets a touchdown he has a good chance of being optimal” zone, but I have a significant lean toward Andrews. Nelson Agholor will make his return from a 2-game absence and play some WR3 snaps alongside Tylan Wallace and perhaps Devontez Walker (though Walker likely plays mainly in blowouts). They’re all thin plays with target projections of something like 0-2 but can be used in MME. 

CLEVELAND

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Kickoff Saturday, Jan 4th 8:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
25) at

Steelers (
23.5)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The more exciting Saturday game has the Bengals visiting the Steelers for a 48 point total matchup with Cincinnati favored by 2. The Bengals are coming in hot, having won four straight and trying desperately to keep their slim playoff hopes alive (NFL.com currently gives them 10% odds to make the playoffs if they win). The Steelers have dropped three in a row, and while they’re a lock for the playoffs, their seeding position is still up for grabs. The problem is their position depends on the Ravens. If Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh no longer has a shot at winning the division and getting the 3 seed, so it’s possible we could see them take things easy on guys if the Ravens take care of business (which they are highly, highly likely to do). There are still seeding implications to this game for Pittsburgh so I can’t imagine we see some kind of mass rest situation, but there’s at least a possibility they go a bit easier on really critical players (think Pickens, who is only recently back from injury, and maybe a running back at most). When these teams met in Week 13 we saw a 44-38 Pittsburgh win – could we see another shootout in their second matchup?

PITTSBURGH

On the Steelers side, Najee Harris has actually had a pretty decent season, having passed the 1,000 rushing yard mark. His game logs look ugly lately but he’s had a combination of tough matchups and negative game scripts. It’s worth noting the last time these teams played in Week 13, Najee had 24.9 DK points, his best performance of the season. With how well Jaylen Warren has been playing Najee is likely to go a little overlooked in this game, but at $7,800 and in a much better matchup, if the game stays competitive throughout, Najee could pile up enough touches to matter. Warren has outsnapped Najee in four games straight and has outproduced him in the last three but it’s unclear to me if this really represents a changing of the guard or just something the Steelers were doing based on matchup, game situation, or both. Warren’s role includes more passing game work but the real consideration is if he’s likely to get 10+ carries, as he has the last couple of games, or if he dips back down into the 4-6 range as we’ve seen for most of the season. I can’t answer that, obviously, but I think given that Warren’s price has passed Najee’s and that game log watchers will be firing up Warren, there’s value in considering that the demise of Najee’s role might be premature. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Steelers are George Pickens and then everyone else. Pickens has a very strong 26.9% target share and an absolute elite 42.6% air yards share. He gets the ball and he gets it deep (and keep in mind that includes earlier games with Justin Fields at quarterback). This is a modest passing volume offense, but Pickens gets enough of a share of it to be considered a premium play. In a positive matchup against a pretty awful Bengals defense, he’s underpriced for his ceiling at $9,200, though just keep in mind that he’s still on the Steelers, which makes his floor shaky. After Pickens, the Steelers will run out Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson, and Scotty Miller at wide receiver. Miller is a pure punt option who doesn’t play much, Austin plays a good bit and gets targets, Jefferson plays a good bit but doesn’t get targets, and Williams is confusing as hell.

We’ll start here with Austin, who has carved out a real role for himself with 4-5 targets in the last four weeks. He’s been pretty inconsistent for most of the season but has come into some floor recently with double-digit DK points in three of his last five. He relies on deep balls to find a ceiling, but fortunately, Russ can throw them and the Bengals can’t defend them. At $6,200, he’s a pretty reasonable mid-tier play of the type that often gets lost ownership-wise as most people try to build stars and scrubs rosters. Jefferson is generally on the field a lot but has only seen more than 3 targets once this season, leaving him in very thin value territory. Williams is the weird one to me, as the Steelers traded for him…only to not ever really use him. His snaps haven’t increased like I thought they would, though he did play a season-high 41% last week, and he isn’t getting many targets with a per-game high of 4 since joining Pittsburgh. I thought the ceiling would be higher for Williams, but it just hasn’t shown up. I’d prefer him to Jefferson but realistically, as much as I like him as a player, he’s pretty thin.

At tight end, after disappointing for much of the season, Pat Freiermuth is on a bit of a tear with 11+ DK points in four of his last five games, 6+ targets in three of those games, and a touchdown in three of those games. At $4,800, he’s priced under the kickers and I like his odds of beating them while going up against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last in production allowed to opposing tight ends. TE2 Darnell Washington was more involved in the offense earlier in the season but has just 3 targets in the last five weeks – he, MyCole Pruitt, and Connor Heyward are all thin MME punts. My final note on the Pittsburgh passing game is that Russell Wilson at just $9k is awfully cheap for a quality quarterback. 

CINCINNATI

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
19.5) at

Falcons (
28.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • The Panthers have a slew of key defensive injuries this week but appear mostly at full strength on offense.
  • Only CB Kevin King (concussion) did not practice for the Falcons on Wednesday.
  • The Falcons need a win against the Panthers and a Buccaneers loss to the Saints to reach the postseason. They should be fully motivated and approach this one with a ‘business as usual’ mindset.
  • The Panthers have long been eliminated from postseason contention but continued to play both well and hard down the stretch as they continue to evolve into the team they had envisioned when they signed first-time head coach Dave Canales this offseason. Expect that to continue into Week 18.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

As we spoke to last week, the primary shift in this offense that has led to increased efficiency of late is a more balanced offense that is able to build its pass game behind an effective run game. We saw what the absence of Chuba Hubbard did to the overall efficiency of the offense in a blowout loss to the Buccaneers a week ago, something that could come into play again this week after Hubbard was placed on season-ending injured reserve. Like the Buccaneers, the Falcons present a pass-funnel matchup away from their top corner in A.J. Terrell, meaning we’re likeliest to see a balanced offense with aerial production to the players that avoid Terrell. Quarterback Bryce Young has not attempted more than 38 passes in the previous three games, with this team instead more comfortable approaching games with a run-balanced approach. But the ‘effort level’ and ‘give an eff level’ should be there for this team in Week 18 as they continue their journey under a new coaching regime.

It was Raheem Blackshear that saw the bulk of the opportunity out of the backfield in Week 17, who played on 77% of the team’s offensive snaps (saw only eight opportunities due to the extremely negative game environment). Mike Boone saw 23% of the team’s offensive snaps and handled two carries and saw two targets. Expect Blackshear to again operate as the primary back, with volume ultimately at the mercy of the game environment in which he finds himself in. The Falcons have allowed 1.90 yards before contact per attempt (13th), 4.4 yards per carry (17th), and 17.8 fantasy points per game (10th) to opposing backfields in 2024, so this is not an ideal matchup on the ground, but it is slightly better than the one this team found themselves in a week ago against the Buccaneers, potentially leading to a slightly more efficient offense.

Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker continue to operate as the team’s primary wide receivers, with Xavier Legette and David Moore confined more to package work. Even so, immense pass volume is not this team’s going-in game plan, and, as we saw last week, it is more difficult for anyone to return a GPP-viable score with modest volume. Thielen managed to hit the 100-yard bonus and score twice a week ago, but he did so on just six targets. It remains Thielen that is the likelist player to return production on a weekly basis, and he should avoid Terrell for the duration of the game, but he saw an almost 10% salary hike following his monster game from a week ago and is now priced around wide receivers with better cost-considered ranges of outcomes. The tight end stable continues to be primarily a two-person split between rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble. Neither has seen more than a modest three targets in a month.

How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
24.5) at

Cowboys (
19.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Cowboys mutually parted ways with Ezekiel Elliott this week, likely paving the way for Deuce Vaughn to be active on Sunday for the first time since Week 11.
  • Six Dallas wide receivers saw meaningful snaps in Week 17, in addition to three tight ends.
  • Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has said the team will approach this game with the full intent of clinching the No. 6 seed out of the NFC. But beyond the surface of that statement lies heaps of uncertainty and variance. The truth of the matter is we just don’t know how he will manage his personnel on game day.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has said the team will approach this game with the full intent of clinching the No. 6 seed out of the NFC, which would seem to indicate the starters will play a normal allotment of snaps. The issue with taking that at face value is that there is still a wide range of outcomes within that quote. The Commanders are attempting to hold off the Packers, who play at the same time. They are also playing a Cowboys team that is reportedly going to play Trey Lance at some frequency. We have no clue how the team will handle their starters if they are up 21-0 after the first quarter, up three scores at half, or up multiple scores after their first possession of the second half. The point here is that we really have no idea how these teams are going to handle their personnel in most cases this week, all we can do is place ourselves in the best position to make the most money when we’re right. I saved that discussion for this game because I think this team has a much wider range of outcomes as far as personnel usage goes than the public is likely to assume given they are “playing for something” in Week 18.

I would expect Brian Robinson to start in a lead back role, but this man has been banged up a good bit this season and has played over a modest 54% snap rate only twice in his previous nine appearances. It is reasonable to expect Robinson to be handled with more care than some of the other starters here. I think it’s likely we see both Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols worked in during the first half, with the potential that those two are sharing the load after the break. Austin Ekeler returned to practice this week in a full capacity and appears ready to return from injured reserve due to a concussion, but I don’t think the team wants him on the field more than he needs to be after missing so much time. The matchup looks enticing on paper against a Cowboys defense allowing 2.39 yards before contact per attempt (fourth most), 4.8 yards per carry (fourth most), and 22.1 fantasy points per game (ninth most) to opposing backfields this season, but I question any one of these three back’s paths to meaningful volume here.

A similar discussion can be had with Jayden Daniels. This man has been on an absolute tear of late, scoring 28.64 DK points or more in four of his previous five games, but I don’t know how willing the team is going to be to continue exposing him to the beatings that can come to a mobile quarterback if the game is in hand. Furthermore, a game against the Eagles in the Wild Card round with Daniels is much better than a game against the Rams without Daniels. I also don’t see the need to chase Olamide Zaccheaus’ recent stretch as both of his high-target games recently came with their opponents pushing them, leaving it much more likely his volume slides back into suboptimal territory. The same can be said of Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. I just don’t have the same level of enthusiasm about this spot, given what we know and the wide range of potential outcomes here, as a lot of the industry currently sees to have. I think it’s likely we see Marcus Mariota at some point, and I think it’s likely Luke McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder, Brycen Tremayne, and K.J. Osborn are more involved than most people assume.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
15.5) at

Packers (
25)

Over/Under 40.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Packers WR Christian Watson is listed as questionable for Week 18 after managing just one limited session this week with his knee injury. Even if he suits up, I don’t expect him to play a ton of snaps here.
  • The Packers present one of the most interesting case studies for how a team handles a late-season game before the playoffs. More on this in their portion of the game write-up below.
  • The Bears are an absolute disaster. Yea, that’s the note.

HOW CHICAGO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Bears have lost 10 games in a row, fired their offensive coordinator, fired their head coach, promoted a coach to two different interim positions, and still only have the ninth overall pick in the coming draft. Talk about an utter disaster of a season in Chicago. During that 10-game losing streak, they have scored more than 20 points just once and more than 15 points just four times. Interim head coach Thomas Brown indicated earlier this week that all healthy starters would play this week, which makes sense considering he is auditioning for an interview, but it doesn’t necessarily mean this team carries any significant upside given the current state of their franchise.

D’Andre Swift has operated as a borderline workhorse back for the previous five weeks, but the return of short-yardage and change-of-pace back Roschon Johnson has taken away premium touches the previous two games. The Packers are a much different defense than the one we attacked relentlessly on the ground in recent history, now allowing just 1.73 yards before contact per attempt (eighth fewest), 4.0 yards per carry (fifth), and 20.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Swift has seen 20 opportunities or more just twice during this 10-game losing streak, something that is unlikely to change in Week 18.

Keenan Allen has four games of 20 DK points or more during the 10-game losing streak, DJ Moore has two such games, and Rome Odunze has one such game. Tight end Cole Kmet has seen more than four targets just once in the past 10 games. This is not an offense we typically target on a standard week, and this is not an offense I’ll be looking to target in Week 18.

How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
20.25) at

Colts (
25.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Jaguars are relatively healthy heading into their final game of a lost season, obviously outside of the season-ending injuries to quarterback Trevor Lawrence, wide receivers Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, and tight end Evan Engram.
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson still has not practiced, as of Thursday, likely indicating an uphill battle for him to start in Week 18. That would seem to indicate the likelihood we see veteran Joe Flacco under center again.
  • Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs were both full participants in each session so far this week.
  • I don’t know if this game environment will be overly sneaky, but it does present one of the better opportunities for offensive production to accumulate.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Mac Jones has now started six games for the Jaguars this season. In those games, the team ranks 18th in pass rate over expectation, which is right in line with where they were with Trevor Lawrence this season. The biggest issue for the Jaguars has been an inability to consistently run the football, which has forced their hand into more pass volume than they would otherwise like. Adding to those issues is a defense that has been one of the more up-and-down units in the league this season, with both their overall performances and coverage and alignment tendencies blowing like a leaf in the wind. Jones has still yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game this season, but this is by far his easiest matchup of the season.

I don’t think anyone in the fantasy space foresaw the drastic fall off in production and weekly opportunities for Travis Etienne this season, but he has been vastly outperformed by former bust Tank Bigsby all year. Etienne has seen more than 53% of the team’s offensive snaps in only one of his previous four games, leaving both backs with a likeliest range of outcomes of 12-16 opportunities each. The Colts have largely been victimized by volume against and missed tackles on the ground, putting up a solid 1.77 yards allowed before contact per attempt and 4.3 yards per carry but struggling to 21.6 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields.

Brian Thomas Jr. has 508 receiving yards in the six games started by Mac Jones this season. The next closest player, Parker Washington, has just 164 yards in those six games. Thomas Jr. has accounted for an elite 30.2% target share, 40.2% air yards share, 0.30 targets per route run, 2.63 yards per route run, and a gaudy 39.8% first-read target rate with Jones under center this season, clearly presenting a locked-in target for Jones. The Jags have not seen much Cover-3 with Jones under center, but Thomas Jr. leads the team in all receiving metrics in that split as well. This is very much a “Brian Thomas Jr. and everyone else” expectation for the Jaguars given their current makeup, but he is in a great spot this week.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
20.25) at

Patriots (
17.75)

Over/Under 38.0

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez continues to miss practice with a concussion and appears unlikely to play in Week 18.
  • Patriots QB Drake Maye (right hand) was added to the injury report Thursday.
  • Expect Josh Allen to start for the Bills as he extends his consecutive games started streak to 115, but I wouldn’t expect him to play more than a series or two considering the Bills have nothing to play for in Week 18 already locked into the No. 2 seed out of the AFC.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

MVP favorite Allen has a streak of 114 consecutive starts, and current reports out of Buffalo are that the team will allow him to keep that streak intact in Week 18. That said, it is highly likely that he plays only a series or two as the Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC and have nothing to play for. I would also expect most of the starters that are full participants in practice this week to start alongside Allen, likely leaving the game when he does. That is likely to pave the way for Mitchell Trubisky to play most of the game under center for the Bills, likely also joined by a slew of backup primary skill-position players. Considering the matchup, the state of this team in Week 18, and their likely goals from this game, I expect a run-focused attack spearheaded by Ray Davis, with Ty Johnson likely serving as the clear passing-down and change-of-pace option, unless the team elevates a running back from the practice squad.

Davis should serve as the lead rusher in a game the Bills should make every effort to control on the ground, with Johnson mixing in as he normally does. The reasoning is simple: this team, and every team, for that matter, can only have so many inactives on game day. But we’re also likely to see at least two of the starting offensive linemen leave the game with Allen, meaning this isn’t automatically some smash spot on the ground. The Patriots have allowed 2.01 yards before contact per attempt (16th), 4.4 yards per carry (19th), and 22.6 fantasy points per game (eighth most) to opposing backfields this season.

I would expect both Jalen Virgil and Tyrell Shavers to get the call from the practice squad after Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Kincaid missed so much time this season, with the two likely to eventually serve as the top wide receivers after Allen departs. Mack Hollins, Khalil Shakir, Coleman, Cooper, Dawson Knox, and Kincaid are all likely to suit up, if I had to guess, but they are equally as unlikely to see a large share of the offensive snaps as the team prepares for its Super Bowl run. That leaves this pass offense as a “your guess is as good as mine” proposition, with no clear indications who of these players will be on the field the most come Sunday, or for how long.

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
17.75) at

Eagles (
20.75)

Over/Under 38.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Giants C John Michael Schmitz (ankle) and RT Evan Neal (rib/hip) did not practice Wednesday.
  • Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (concussion/finger) did not practice Wednesday, although it is all but certain the primary skill-position players in Philadelphia do not suit up as the Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
  • Although Saquon Barkley is chasing history and needs just 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, Eagles HC Nick Sirianni said, “We’re gonna rest some guys. There are gonna be some guys in a reserve role.” On Barkley, Sirianni said, “He’ll probably be someone that rests.”
  • Watching the tape from the Giants last week, I was absolutely blown away at the runout this team had to destroy the most important DFS slate of the year. Their offense is poorly structured, vanilla, and mundane, they just got extremely lucky that the Colts are so inept.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Before last week’s offensive eruption against the Colts, the Giants had thrown for two touchdowns since the release of Daniel Jones. – one by Tim Boyle in the second half of the team’s Week 15 loss to the Ravens and one by Drew Lock in the team’s Week 16 loss to the Falcons. Lock’s first touchdown of the game against the Colts came on a screen pass to Malik Nabers on third-and-14, which he housed from 31 yards out. His second touchdown came on a screen pass to Darius Slayton on third-and-8, which he housed from 32 yards out. His third touchdown came from five yards out on a scramble drill to Wan’Dale Robinson following a ridiculous long catch from Malik Nabers to get them into the red zone, which was on a severely underthrown ball by Lock. The Giants would then return the second-half kickoff for a touchdown. His fourth touchdown came on a quick out to Nabers in double coverage, who broke multiple tackles and scored from 59 yards out. He then tacked on the late rushing score from five yards out. 

All of that to say, this team’s performance in Week 17 was more a nod to the ineptitudes of the Indianapolis defense than it was some sweeping changes made to the structure of the New York offense, an offense that continued to appear vanilla and face-up on tape. The offense was rooted in short-area passing through slants, outs, and seam work, with nobody on the team outside of Nabers capable of making any meaningful plays. That spells trouble against a good Eagles defense, regardless of how many starters are rested this week.

The most recent three-game stretch has seen Devin Singletary more involved than he had been in Week 13 and Week 14, something that has confined lead back Tyrone Tracy’s snap rate to between 63% and 68% in each game. It was also Singletary that scored the backfield’s lone rushing score, now making it eight straight contests in which Tracy has failed to hit 20 DK points. The Eagles rank fourth in yards allowed before contact per attempt while the Giants have blocked to the 11th-fewest yards before contact per attempt, making this a matchup to largely stay away from.

Nabers broke the slate in Week 17, returning the most DK points of any player on the slate. As was covered above, one of his touchdowns came on a screen and the other on an out in double coverage, while his only catch that traveled more than 15 air yards downfield was badly underthrown by Lock. Nabers made an adjustment on the football while the corner in coverage never turned around to find the football. Just absolutely insane runout to ruin the slate last week, but that also highlights how poorly structured this offense is. Said another way, it is highly unlikely that Nabers sniffs anything close to the fantasy production he put up last week against an extremely well-coached team in the Eagles. Darius Slayton and tight end Daniel Bellinger continue to be the only other two pass catchers to play near every-down roles for the Giants in most weeks, with Robinson’s slot role dependent on personnel groupings. 

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
15.25) at

Bucs (
28.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The most notable injuries for the Bucs are RB Bucky Irving LP with a shoulder, TE Cade Otton DNP with a knee, and TE Payne Durham DNP with a quad.
  • The most notable injuries for the Saints are QB Derek Carr DNP with a hand, RB Alvin Kamara DNP with a groin, RB Kendre Miller DNP with a concussion, TE Juwan Johnson LP with a knee, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling LP with a chest, and WR Chris Olave FP with a head.
  • The Bucs will treat this like a playoff game and the Saints would rather not have to play this game.
  • The Saints have been respectable against the pass and terrible against the run but it makes sense for Tampa to take it as easy on Bucky Irving.
  • The Bucs primary offensive pieces all saw price increases and might have trouble reaching their ceiling in a blowout.
  • The Saints are helmed by Spencer Rattler and haven’t been able to go anywhere on offense.
  • Jamaal Williams is likely to get the start at RB for the Saints and he has a brutal matchup against a strong Bucs run defense.
  • Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau are both cheap and have been the only way Rattler has found any success over the past two weeks.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The 9-7 Bucs come into Week 18 with one of the simplest playoff scenarios in the league. Win and they take the division, lose and they’re vulnerable to the Falcons equaling their record and advancing on a head-to-head tiebreaker. With all three of the wild cards in the NFC already accounted for and the Falcons being big (-8) home favorites against the Panthers, this game is really the first week of the playoffs for the Bucs. A play-in game in Week 18 must be an exciting outcome for a team that was generally expected to finish third in the division early in the season. Baker Mayfield deserves a lot of the credit as he has the Bucs offense humming (7th in Passing DVOA). It’s scary to think how good this offense might have been if everyone had stayed healthy as Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and Jalen McMillan missed significant time this year. The Bucs offense line has also been excellent (4th ranked by PFF), having held their position in the top five of the rankings for most of the season. Tristan Wirfs continues to be one of the best LT tackles in football and the improvement of second year guard Cody Mauch has elevated the unit to elite pass blocking status. Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen has also looked good, after spending most of the past five years between the Rams and Kentucky. The Bucs have reason to believe the future is bright. 

The Saints have been respectable against the pass (14th in DVOA) and smashed on the ground (31st in DVOA). “The Saints can’t tackle!” is something that frequently rings down my hallways on Sunday afternoons and anyone who has watched the Saints this year can tell you what a difficult time they’ve had getting running backs on the ground. The Bucs offense has been pass leaning (9th in PROE), but their PROE value is interestingly exactly 0%. That means the Bucs play calling is in line with their situation, which speaks to the intelligent approach of Coen. This matchup favors the run and with the Saints offense not expected to pose much of a threat, it would make sense to try and win on the ground, before taking a lot of risks through the air. Coen has shown that he is willing to attack in whatever manner it takes to win, so should the Saints somehow end up with a lead, he won’t hesitate to throw, but the Bucs game plan, in general, is likely to start on the ground. Expect a typical balanced Bucs attack, with them likely to run more than usual because of the matchup and game script.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

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Texans (
19.25) at

Titans (
19.25)

Over/Under 38.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed out of the AFC and have nothing to play for in Week 18.
  • Texans HC DeMeco Ryans told reporters, “everybody has to be ready, we’ll see how the game goes,” in response to questions surrounding whether the starters will play.
  • Texans DE Denico Autry, DT Folorunso Fatukasi, OG Shaq Mason, and CB Jeff Okudah did not practice Thursday with various injuries.
  • Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot), RB Tyjae Spears (concussion), S Amani Hooker (shoulder), LB Arden Key (hand), and LB Otis Reese (ankle) did not practice Wednesday.
  • Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) returned to a limited session Thursday after missing the team’s Week 17 loss.

How Houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed out of the AFC and will likely be hosting the Steelers or Chargers in the wild card round in a week’s time. This would seem the perfect time to get healthy as the postseason looms, except the Texans have had two rather pitiful performances in a row in losses to the Chiefs and Ravens and reportedly have a “sour taste in their mouth.” When asked how he would manage starters playing in Week 18, head coach DeMeco Ryans told reporters, “everybody has to be to go, we’ll see how the game goes.” While that likely means that some starters will be tasked with playing, I still would think it is highly unlikely we see them play deep into the game. I don’t buy this “wash the taste out of our mouth” hullabaloo, nor do I buy playing starters in a meaningless game at the end of a 17-game regular season before the playoffs as “the right move because they had a late bye week.” It’s simply utter nonsense and a risk that is not worth taking. I expect the primary starters to get pulled, in short order, particularly considering the sheer number of injuries this team has battled through this year.

Again, a lot of this is speculation and conjecture, but I would expect this to largely be a Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce game for the Texans, and I would also expect multiple veteran offensive linemen to sit for most, if not all, of the game. And while the Titans are a middling matchup on the ground, we shouldn’t expect immense volume or efficiency from either of these two backs. The Titans have allowed 2.00 yards before contact per attempt (18th), 4.4 yards per carry (13th), and 22.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (10th most).

I wouldn’t expect Nico Collins to play much, if at all, considering the injuries sustained by this team to their wide receiver corps, but we should see Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie, and Jared Wayne forced to play the bulk of the game. Reason would lead us to believe Robert Woods is likely to see his involvement nerfed considering his veteran status, but that is pure speculation. I would also expect to see Dalton Schultz on the sidelines for most of the game, which is likely to leave Cade Stover and Irv Smith to handle the tight end duties for the Texans. There’s nothing here that points to any of these guys being worthy of fantasy consideration with Davis Mills likely under center for most of the game.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
19.5) at

Cards (
23.5)

Over/Under 43.0

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Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The 49ers will be without QB Brock Purdy and will instead turn to dual-threat QB Joshua Dobbs in their season finale.
  • These teams met earlier this season with Arizona pulling out a 23-22 victory in San Francisco.
  • Cardinals tight end Trey McBride finally had his first receiving touchdown last week and has at least nine receptions in five of his last nine games, with 104 on the season.
  • 49ers rookie WR Ricky Pearsall had a breakout game against the Lions last week with 8 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown.

How san Francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers were knocked out of the playoffs a couple of weeks ago, but continue to compete and are coming off a strong showing against the Lions on Monday Night Football. San Francisco showed that, at heart, they are still one of the stronger organizations in football and can compete with anyone. Unfortunately, they came up short and their efforts don’t change the fact that their season has been a disappointment from the four NFC Championship games they’ve been in over the past five seasons.

San Francisco QB Brock Purdy suffered an arm injury on Monday night and has been ruled out, leaving veteran journeyman Joshua Dobbs as their starter. Dobbs is a fun player for fantasy purposes and has dual-threat rushing ability. His mobility is something that Kyle Shanahan should be able to find creative ways to use as he should be able to get him out of the pocket to make throws and/or find one or two read passing options to attack the Cardinals. As we have discussed regularly throughout the season, Arizona’s defense is a zone-heavy coverage unit that often uses two-high safety looks and blitzes at a low rate. In theory, this should limit the big runs Dobbs can break off, but should allow him time to throw and let him extend plays without a lot of defenders rushing. This is a homecoming of sorts for Dobbs, who started in Arizona during the first half of 2023 while Kyler Murray recovered from his knee injury.

For the rest of the 49ers, exciting rookie RB Isaac Guerendo dominated the backfield work in Week 17 with all 13 of the RB opportunities, which he turned into 99 total yards, and should be given the full treatment once again. In 2023, Dobbs targeted the tight end position at an EXTREMELY high rate and all pro TE George Kittle should be busy this week as the low blitz rate of the Cardinals should keep him from needing to chip before going out on routes, the Arizona 2-high zone coverage should give him openings in the short to intermediate areas to get open for Dobbs, and Dobbs will be looking for him early and often. As for the receivers, veteran Deebo Samuel Sr. is reportedly likely on his way out of town and may have played his last snap for the team as he has not been practicing this week. Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall had a breakout performance in Week 17 and the team appears to wisely be featuring their first round rookie to end the season. We can’t forget about veteran WR Jauan Jennings, either, as he has had a breakout season and runs a high percentage of routes from the slot and has a big body similar to a tight end, potentially making him an appealing target for Dobbs. It is notable that when Dobbs entered the game on the last drive on Monday night he attempted four passes and three of them targeted Jennings. Expect a more run-heavy game plan for the 49ers that leverages the threats of both Guerendo and Dobbs, with Kittle and Jennings the focal points of the passing game.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

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Chiefs (
14.25) at

Broncos (
25.25)

Over/Under 39.5

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GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • The Chiefs have locked up the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
  • If Denver wins this game, they clinch the No. 7 seed in the AFC while a loss would allow the Dolphins or Bengals to pass them.
  • Kansas City has next week off due to the bye week and hasn’t played since Christmas Day, so the Chiefs may play this like a preseason game and give some key players a quarter or two to stay sharp before pulling them.
  • Broncos QB Bo Nix has had his biggest games against weaker defenses and could be in a sneaky good spot against a Chiefs team with a lot of backups on the field.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Chiefs have had a charmed season with several games coming down to the wire and one or two plays going their way as they have locked up the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage, along with a first-round bye. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions have nothing to prove and have done it all before, so they are going to use this week for the extra rest that they have earned. The Chiefs have also achieved their current record while not scoring 30 points in a single game at all this season. While some will point to those stats as indicators that the Chiefs have been “lucky”, the reality is that winning is a skill and the Chiefs execute at a high level, are extremely well-coached, and have a great culture of competitiveness that should be consistent throughout the roster – something that is relevant in a week where a lot of backups will be on the field.

Veteran QB Carson Wentz will start this game and it’s unclear who his top weapons will be. It would make sense if Travis Kelce sits this one out. Meanwhile, RB Isiah Pacheco has battled injuries all year, so giving him the extra rest would make sense. That would also apply to veteran RB Kareem Hunt, who has had a big role most of the season. The rest of the receiving corps is harder to decipher. Wide receiver Hollywood Brown has been back for two games now and looked good while playing a sizable role. He hasn’t played much, so reps would make sense, but he’s been fragile throughout his career so rest would also seem wise. Veteran DeAndre Hopkins would seemingly be a perfect rest candidate, but he can hit a $250K contract incentive with a touchdown reception in this game. Perhaps he is active but plays sparingly and specifically in the red zone? Rookie WR Xavier Worthy is finally finding his groove and playing very well. His speed is critical to this offense at this point, and it seems unlikely that he would play. Tight end Noah Gray has played 59% of the offense’s snaps this season and is an integral part of the team, but there are only so many spots on a roster and only so many people can rest. He seems like another one who may be active but play limited snaps/situations.

Expect Andy Reid to have a good game plan built around the strengths of Wentz, whose rushing ability was on display last year in Week 18 for the Rams. Rookie running back Carson Steele seems like the obvious choice for lead-back duties, while Justin Watson and a wide cast of backup WRs are candidates for bigger roles in the passing game. The matchup with the Broncos’ defense is a tough one and Denver has a playoff berth on the line, so offensive production may be tough to come by in this one. Expect a conservative approach for the Chiefs as they try to make this another moderate-scoring game and win by letting the pressure on their opponent force them into mistakes.

How DENVER Will Try To Win ::

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Hawks (
22.5) at

Rams (
17)

Over/Under 39.5

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GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • Seahawks QB Geno Smith has $6 million in incentives he is chasing in this game.
  • Seattle RB Kenneth Walker III is done for the season, leaving Zach Charbonnet in a lead role with Kenny McIntosh picking up some work as well.
  • The Rams have clinched the NFC West and intend to rest many key players, including QB Matthew Stafford. This will leave Jimmy Garropolo as the starting quarterback.
  • Kyren Williams may also be held out of this game, which could give talented rookie RB Blake Corum his first big workload of his NFL career.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Seahawks had an up-and-down season but ended up on the outside looking in for a top-heavy NFC, which has a whopping five teams with 11+ victories through Week 17, keeping the nine-win Seahawks from potentially getting a Wild Card spot. The Rams won the first head-to-head matchup between these teams and owns the other tiebreakers, which is why Seattle is unable to win the division even if they win this week to tie the Rams with a 10-7 record. This is the first season for head coach Mike Macdonald, however, and he would undoubtedly love to start his head coaching career with a season of double-digit victories and tying for first place in the division. Expect a strong effort from Seattle this week.

Seahawks QB Geno Smith has a lot on the line this week, with three different $2 million incentives attached to his contract. First, he will hit one incentive if Seattle wins. Second, he needs 185 passing yards to hit another incentive. And finally, Smith has an incentive in his contract for having a completion percentage over 69.755% (he is currently at 70.2%), which means that he needs to complete roughly 62% of his passes this week to stay above that mark. Sometimes those incentives are overblown as we evaluate these spots, but $6 million is a lot of money and Macdonald has openly said this week that he wants to get guys to their numbers if they can do so without compromising the game plan. Summarizing Smith’s situation, obviously Seattle is going to try to win this game and the Rams likely resting some key starters is helpful. For the final two, Seattle is fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and we will likely see a high-volume, low-aDOT approach this week.

RB Kenneth Walker is out, leaving Zach Charbonnet as the feature back and Kenny McIntosh as a change-of-pace and breather back. Smith is likely to target Charbonnet and breakout second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at a high rate this week, as well as his tight ends a week after Trey McBride diced up this Rams defensive scheme. One other angle to consider is the importance of DK Metcalf to this organization and the fact that Seattle could use him more aggressively than it has during the second half of the year as a show of respect for what he provides the team. Metcalf suffered a knee injury in Week 7 against Atlanta and missed the next two games. Since then, he has not gone over 70 receiving yards and has scored only one touchdown. There aren’t any “metrics” pointing to a strong Metcalf game, but this is a spot where the nature of Week 18 makes me think he could be in store for a more prominent role.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 4:25pm Eastern

Chargers (
23.25) at

Raiders (
17.75)

Over/Under 41.0

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Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The Chargers will know 24 hours in advance whether or not this game will have any impact on their playoff seeding.
  • Raiders TE Brock Bowers has set several receiving records already and will look to build on those in this matchup.
  • The Raiders will be competing under head coach Antonio Pierce as he looks to end his first full season on a positive note.
  • Los Angeles had a three-man backfield headed by J.K. Dobbins in his first game back from Injured Reserve.
  • Ameer Abdullah took the lead in the Raiders backfield last week and was very successful, but is now listed as doubtful for this game.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers have locked up a playoff berth and will know what they are playing for (if anything) before this game kicks off. They can’t fall any lower than the No. 6 seed. If Pittsburgh loses on Saturday, the Chargers will be the No. 5 seed and face the Texans with a win. If Pittsburgh wins, then the Chargers are locked into the No. 6 seed and will face the Ravens in the wild card round which could lead to them resting players. Coach Jim Harbaugh is currently talking about this game as if they will need to win it, but that tune could change depending on the outcome in Pittsburgh on Saturday night.

The Chargers offense was humming last Saturday in New England, dropping 40 points for the first time this season. As a matter of fact, the Chargers scored over 30 points in each of the last two weeks after doing so only once in their first 14 games. A date with a struggling Raiders defense would likely set them up for another strong offensive output. Rookie WR Ladd McConkey is the clear focal point of the passing game with receivers Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Derius Davis all playing various roles. Davis has burst on the scene the last couple of weeks and QB Justin Herbert has spoken about a need to get him more involved. Davis delivered last week with a first quarter touchdown. McConkey will be peppered with targets and moved all over the field. If the Steelers win on Saturday, expect McConkey to be very busy Sunday.

As for the backfield, J.K. Dobbins returned from injured reserve and was the primary runner for the Chargers in New England, but Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins were still involved enough to matter. Given the injury history of Dobbins and his status as their lead back it would make sense for the three-headed backfield to continue this week in a solid matchup with the Raiders run defense. Dobbins would be at the top of the list of candidates to sit this one out if Pittsburgh wins on Saturday, so we’ll want to keep an eye on that.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

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Dolphins (
20.25) at

Jets (
19.25)

Over/Under 39.5

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GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • Miami needs to win this game and hope for a Denver loss in order to make the playoffs.
  • The Dolphins are preparing as though QB Tua Tagovailoa will miss his second consecutive game, leaving Tyler Huntley under center.
  • Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle has had limited practices this week after missing the last two games with a knee injury.
  • This is almost certainly the last game in New York for QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Dolphins are preparing for another game with Tyler Huntley under center, as QB Tua Tagovailoa is expected to miss the second consecutive week with a hip injury. Miami needs a victory along with a Broncos loss against the Chiefs backups in order to make the playoffs, while a win would also secure head coach Mike McDaniel’s third straight winning season. Last week against the Browns in ugly weather, the Dolphins had a conservative and run-heavy game plan that played to Huntley’s strengths and utilized his legs. Miami had 26 pass attempts while running the ball 27 times last week and mixed up its backfield more than in recent weeks, rotating four different players while dynamic RB De’Von Achane played on only 53% of the snaps and had a season-low 12 opportunities. Achane’s skill set is utilized primarily in space and fits Tua’s game perfectly, while last week called for a more traditional “power” running game which, along with the lack of threat from the Browns, left Achane as more of a luxury than a necessity.

This week against the Jets, there is likely to be a bigger offensive threat from the other side, which will force Miami to be a bit more aggressive. The team may also be getting Waddle back, and that would help some with their explosiveness and ability to stretch the field both horizontally and vertically. Huntley’s ability to run the ball and the fact that he does not process or get rid of the ball as quickly as Tua changes things a bit for the passing game. Expect the Dolphins to once again use a run-heavy approach against a Jets defense that has struggled against the run all season and their passing game to be relatively straightforward concepts with a couple of straightforward reads for Huntley and then the option for him to make plays outside of structure. Tyreek Hill had a big game despite the poor game environment last week, with over 100 receiving yards for only the third time this season. Hill benefited from the Dolphins’ approach last week as his first-read target rate was high and the team kept more players in to block against a tough Browns front. If Huntley is under center again and Waddle is unable to return, Hill could have another big day on the horizon as the Jets’ defense is shutting key players down and didn’t show a ton of effort in last week’s loss to the Bills.

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 5th 8:20pm Eastern

Vikings (
26.75) at

Lions (
29.75)

Over/Under 56.5

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

In a display of scheduling mastery, the NFL has the Vikings visiting the Lions as the final game of the regular season. This one’s for all the marbles – the winner wins the NFC North and the number 1 conference seed, so both teams will be going all-out. It has a massive 56 point total (which might be the highest point total of the season!), having been bet up from an opening line of just 47 (who set that one?!). The Lions are 3 point home favorites. Really high total, close spread, and elite offenses…it should be a fun one. 

Side note: for those of you on Fanduel this is on the main slate. It’s going to be extremely highly owned, but to me, it’s the clear best spot on the slate and I’m totally comfortable just playing into it despite the ownership. There are plenty of other ways to be different in Week 18, you don’t have to avoid the best game on the slate. 

DETROIT

The Lions backfield is missing David Montgomery which has put Jahmyr Gibbs into a huge role. Gibbs played 75% of the snaps the week Monty left early, 69% of the snaps the following week (his two highest of the season), then 52% last week in a game that was totally meaningless for Detroit but they still played fairly tough anyway. In those games, he had touch counts of 28 and 22, scored 28.4 and 29.3 DK points, and has yet to finish below RB4 in fantasy in a week Monty has either missed or left early. The role is monstrous. The matchup here is extremely poor as the Vikings are allowing just 3.9 yards per carry and are facing a massive 64.3% opposing passing play rate, the highest in the league – they are the very definition of a pass funnel defense. I’m not that worried about it for Gibbs, though – the Lions offense is so explosive (and Gibbs himself is such an elite runner – the dude is at 5.6 YPC on the season!) that I trust he can find a way to hit in any matchup, and more importantly, he is highly involved in the passing game as well with 16 targets in the three games since Monty was injured. Even if he’s an underdog to reach 100 yards on the ground in this one, his passing game role keeps him strongly in consideration. In Showdown, I might take a slight underweight position – not because I don’t think Gibbs can smash here, but because the matchup is difficult, he’s going to be hugely owned despite it, and there are so many other great plays in this game – but he’s a great play in any spot (and if his projected ownership dips down into the 40% range, I think that’s too low – I’m just guessing he’ll project for over 50%). On the Fanduel main slate, he’s close to a lock button play for me personally. Behind Gibbs is Craig Reynolds, assuming he plays. He apparently got injured in practice this week. If Reynolds plays, he’s in line for a fairly modest role, probably something like he played in Week 16 against Chicago (15% of the snaps and 5 touches). If he misses, Jermar Jefferson likely takes that role and would be more attractive as he would have basically the same role but at $1k cheaper. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game is where things get fun. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are the primary wideouts, and then Kalif Raymond is returning from injury and may take a bit of the WR3 role away from Tim Patrick, though Patrick should be the primary in that role. In every Lions Showdown, I’ve been saying that ASRB generally needs volume to really find a ceiling because catching long bombs isn’t really his game…well guess what, the Vikings face such a high opposing pass rate (which both means more pass attempts going around plus more overall plays due to clock stoppage), that ASRB is likely to get the volume he needs in order to smash. He is a no doubt, hands down elite play. Williams has more of a boom/bust profile and while he’s really broken out this season (~15 DK points per game average, four games of 24+ DK points), he also still has quite a bit of bust (four games of single-digit DK points, including against the Vikings earlier in the year). In a game with a lot of major studs, Jamo is priced at a point that may get a bit lost in the shuffle. His volatility makes me less interested in him at high ownership but I don’t think he’s going to get to high ownership. I think he probably tops out at 30% or so (if that) because of the pricing, which makes him very much in play. Patrick at $3,600 feels like a great value play to me although a very volatile one. Patrick has deep threat in his game, he’s earned trust in the red zone (3 touchdowns in Weeks 14-15), and he’ll have games where he can earn significant volume for his price (15 targets in those two weeks). He also has no floor and Raymond will eat into him a bit…but my hope is just keeps his ownership down. My general ethos is to stay away from volatile plays at high ownership but play into them at low ownership, so for me, Patrick is an ownership play – my dearest hope is that projection sites bump him down aggressively due to Raymond returning and that keeps his ownership modest (anything below 20% is reasonable, below 15% feels like an absolute bargain). Raymond is hard to play in his first game back from IR but does deserve to be in player pools as a punt play, especially if he’s going to resume kick return duties (which I have seen nothing about, but my guess is that he will).

At tight end, Sam LaPorta has six straight games of 90%+ snaps as he’s shaken off his early season slump with five games in a row of 10+ DK points. Four of those games are 14.3 or more DK points, which at his price of $5,800 would give him strong odds of landing in winning lineups. TE2 Brock Wright is mainly a blocker with little passing game involvement and then Shane Zylstra can be included as a (very) thin MME punt play. The Vikings pass defense is slightly above average at 6.5 yards per pass attempt allowed, but they’re facing SO much pass volume that teams are getting there against them anyway – they’re allowing 244 pass yards per game, 5th-most in the league. 

MINNESOTA

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