Kickoff Saturday, Jan 4th 8:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
25) at

Steelers (
23.5)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The more exciting Saturday game has the Bengals visiting the Steelers for a 48 point total matchup with Cincinnati favored by 2. The Bengals are coming in hot, having won four straight and trying desperately to keep their slim playoff hopes alive (NFL.com currently gives them 10% odds to make the playoffs if they win). The Steelers have dropped three in a row, and while they’re a lock for the playoffs, their seeding position is still up for grabs. The problem is their position depends on the Ravens. If Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh no longer has a shot at winning the division and getting the 3 seed, so it’s possible we could see them take things easy on guys if the Ravens take care of business (which they are highly, highly likely to do). There are still seeding implications to this game for Pittsburgh so I can’t imagine we see some kind of mass rest situation, but there’s at least a possibility they go a bit easier on really critical players (think Pickens, who is only recently back from injury, and maybe a running back at most). When these teams met in Week 13 we saw a 44-38 Pittsburgh win – could we see another shootout in their second matchup?

PITTSBURGH

On the Steelers side, Najee Harris has actually had a pretty decent season, having passed the 1,000 rushing yard mark. His game logs look ugly lately but he’s had a combination of tough matchups and negative game scripts. It’s worth noting the last time these teams played in Week 13, Najee had 24.9 DK points, his best performance of the season. With how well Jaylen Warren has been playing Najee is likely to go a little overlooked in this game, but at $7,800 and in a much better matchup, if the game stays competitive throughout, Najee could pile up enough touches to matter. Warren has outsnapped Najee in four games straight and has outproduced him in the last three but it’s unclear to me if this really represents a changing of the guard or just something the Steelers were doing based on matchup, game situation, or both. Warren’s role includes more passing game work but the real consideration is if he’s likely to get 10+ carries, as he has the last couple of games, or if he dips back down into the 4-6 range as we’ve seen for most of the season. I can’t answer that, obviously, but I think given that Warren’s price has passed Najee’s and that game log watchers will be firing up Warren, there’s value in considering that the demise of Najee’s role might be premature. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Steelers are George Pickens and then everyone else. Pickens has a very strong 26.9% target share and an absolute elite 42.6% air yards share. He gets the ball and he gets it deep (and keep in mind that includes earlier games with Justin Fields at quarterback). This is a modest passing volume offense, but Pickens gets enough of a share of it to be considered a premium play. In a positive matchup against a pretty awful Bengals defense, he’s underpriced for his ceiling at $9,200, though just keep in mind that he’s still on the Steelers, which makes his floor shaky. After Pickens, the Steelers will run out Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson, and Scotty Miller at wide receiver. Miller is a pure punt option who doesn’t play much, Austin plays a good bit and gets targets, Jefferson plays a good bit but doesn’t get targets, and Williams is confusing as hell.

We’ll start here with Austin, who has carved out a real role for himself with 4-5 targets in the last four weeks. He’s been pretty inconsistent for most of the season but has come into some floor recently with double-digit DK points in three of his last five. He relies on deep balls to find a ceiling, but fortunately, Russ can throw them and the Bengals can’t defend them. At $6,200, he’s a pretty reasonable mid-tier play of the type that often gets lost ownership-wise as most people try to build stars and scrubs rosters. Jefferson is generally on the field a lot but has only seen more than 3 targets once this season, leaving him in very thin value territory. Williams is the weird one to me, as the Steelers traded for him…only to not ever really use him. His snaps haven’t increased like I thought they would, though he did play a season-high 41% last week, and he isn’t getting many targets with a per-game high of 4 since joining Pittsburgh. I thought the ceiling would be higher for Williams, but it just hasn’t shown up. I’d prefer him to Jefferson but realistically, as much as I like him as a player, he’s pretty thin.

At tight end, after disappointing for much of the season, Pat Freiermuth is on a bit of a tear with 11+ DK points in four of his last five games, 6+ targets in three of those games, and a touchdown in three of those games. At $4,800, he’s priced under the kickers and I like his odds of beating them while going up against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last in production allowed to opposing tight ends. TE2 Darnell Washington was more involved in the offense earlier in the season but has just 3 targets in the last five weeks – he, MyCole Pruitt, and Connor Heyward are all thin MME punts. My final note on the Pittsburgh passing game is that Russell Wilson at just $9k is awfully cheap for a quality quarterback. 

CINCINNATI

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