Kickoff Sunday, Jan 19th 3:00pm Eastern

Rams (
18.75) at

Eagles (
24.75)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • This is a great showdown between two of the hottest teams in the NFL.
  • The Rams’ defense has been playing at an elite level after a slow, injury-riddled start to the season, while the Eagles are the top-ranked defense in the league.
  • Current forecasts call for temperatures around freezing and a strong chance of snow.
  • Rams WR Cooper Kupp has inexplicably disappeared over the last month of the season and has failed to reach 30 receiving yards in any of his last four games.
  • Saquon Barkley had his best game of his historic season when these teams met in Week 12, a 37-20 Eagles victory.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Rams’ season started slow, but they have been close to as hot as anyone since their Week 6 bye. After their bye, the Rams went 9-2 in their next 11 games prior to resting players in Week 18 with the division clinched. Their nine wins during that stretch included victories over the Bills and Vikings (teams who had 13 and 14 wins this season), and they dominated the Vikings on Monday night, leading 24-3 at halftime before coasting to a victory in the second half. The Rams’ offense gets most of the attention due to household names and head coach Sean McVay’s strong offensive reputation, but their defense has been the key lately. They have held four straight opponents to single-digit points (not counting Week 18 when they rested many key players), which has allowed them to win games with ball control.

As discussed, the defense has been terrific lately. The Rams are playing outstanding complementary football as a team, with only one turnover in their last six games (excluding Week 18). That is an incredible stat, and the Rams will be tested by an Eagles defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA while averaging 1.7 takeaways per game. Additionally, the forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30’s and a strong chance of snow during the game on Sunday. Only one of the Rams’ last eight games has been outdoors and outside of California, while QB Matthew Stafford has historically had poor splits in cold weather. Per Tucker Bagley on Twitter/X, “Matthew Stafford outdoors in the rain/snow: 1-8 record, 54.6% completion percentage, 14 TDs, 11 INTs, 76.0 passer rating.” When we compare those numbers to his career 63.4% completion percentage, roughly 2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, and 91.2 passer rating, we can see that he has struggled in these conditions. This is relatively normal for most QBs – obviously, worse conditions are likely to lead to worse statistics – and the sample size is relatively small, but it is noteworthy nonetheless. When considering the Rams’ recent success has largely depended on controlling the ball and limiting turnovers, this could pose a problem.

The Rams rank 21st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and will lean on their running game and short-area passing when they are able to. They did come out throwing at a high rate last week against a Vikings defense that has been great against the run and brings a lot of pressure. The Rams have not been an overly explosive offense recently, especially in the regular-season games after their shootout with the Bills, but they did have a great first half against the blitz-happy Vikings last week. Matthew Stafford completed passes of 20+ yards to four different receivers in the victory. Kyren Williams is the bell-cow running back and will play nearly every snap with Blake Corum’s season finished due to injury, Williams had 95% of the RB work last week prior to the team running out the clock late. Puka Nacua is the focal point of the offense and sees a target share north of 30% nearly every game, while Kupp has disappeared over the last month and has now gone four straight games with three or fewer targets and fewer than 30 receiving yards while not scoring any touchdowns during that stretch. It is hard not to think he is battling some kind of injury at this point, especially after playing a season-low 55% of the snaps last week. Tight end Tyler Higbee returned late in the season and has emerged recently, averaging six receptions for 52 yards over the last two games and scoring a touchdown. He was targeted five times against the Vikings despite playing only 12 snaps due to a chest injury that has led to limited showings in the first two practices of the week. Higbee, if available, and the Rams’ other WRs may get some extra work again this week if Kupp continues to struggle and the Eagles’ elite secondary is able to limit Puka.

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

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