Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Texans OG Shaq Mason upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday, marking his first practice in three weeks since sustaining an MCL injury in the team’s Week 16 loss to these same Chiefs. KPRC Houston’s Aaron Wilson reports he is likely to miss the team’s Divisional Round contest.
- Texans WR Robert Woods has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday) with a hip injury. UPDATE: Woods failed to practice on Thursday and drew a questionable designation.
- The Chiefs emerge from their playoff bye healthy, and could potentially get WR/KR Mecole Hardman back from injured reserve after he logged consecutive limited sessions to start the week.
- This game probably has the fewest paths to elite fantasy production of the four Divisional Round games this weekend.
- UPDATE: Texans RB Joe Mixon is listed as questionable after a limited session Wednesday and a ‘DNP’ Thursday with an ankle injury.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
The Texans have been an utter disaster since Week 7, there’s really no way to sugarcoat it. They’ve dealt with numerous key injuries, losing Nico Collins for five games in Week 5, losing Stefon Diggs for the season in Week 8, and losing Tank Dell for the season in Week 16, but this team has not had the same magic they did in C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik continues to place the team in long down-and-distance situations due to poor early-down tendencies, something Stroud has had to contend with for the entirety of his two-year NFL career. He blew away all expectations in his rookie season while fighting through those inadequacies, struggling more with it in 2024. The overall identity of this team continues to originate with their defense, providing them the opportunity to be competitive in most games this season. The biggest problem I had with the Texans coming into the postseason was the fact that they had only one win over a playoff team all season, which came back in Week 5 against the Bills, which happened to coincide with the last time they had all of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs on the field together this year (Collins left early with a hamstring injury that would cost him five games following his long touchdown catch). This team appears set to have to overcome the deficiencies discussed above on offense while hoping their defense can keep them in the game here.
Dare Ogunbowale cemented his status as the preferred change of pace back for the Texans after Dameon Pierce dealt with numerous injuries and the team traded away Cam Akers to the Vikings. Lead back Joe Mixon really struggled down the stretch of the regular season after one of the most stellar starts in recent memory. Mixon put up 26.4 DK points in each of his first four fully healthy games before topping 20 DK points just twice in his next nine contests. His 100-yard performance against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round was the first time he went over a modest 57 yards since Week 13 against the Jaguars, which also corresponds to the last time he put up more than 10.6 DK points prior to his 20.9-point effort against the Chargers. While many will think that his performance to end the season is a reflection of a declining veteran, I attribute those shortcomings to the offense, as a whole. That timeframe corresponds to a stretch of poor offensive performances against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens, something that had me down on this team entering the postseason. Even so, Mixon was back up to a 71% snap rate in their Wild Card win, handling a robust 27 opportunities in the win. If this team is to be successful in an upset win over the Chiefs, it likely starts with Mixon (well, it really starts with Bobby Slowik, which, by extension, starts with Mixon). The Chiefs are about the worst possible matchup for opposing run games after holding opposing backfields to 1.71 yards before contact per attempt (seventh), 4.1 yards per carry (seventh), and an NFL-best 15.3 fantasy points per game.
The Chargers clearly placed additional emphasis on alpha wide receiver Nico Collins in the first half of their Wild Card Round matchup, something that led to increased usage for John Metchie. Metchie finished the first half with eight targets and was the target on Stroud’s first half interception and also lost a fumble, highlighting how badly this team needs secondary pass-catchers to step up in the absence of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Metchie finished with a lowly 51% snap rate to match the 51% snap rate of Robert Woods, with tight end Dalton Schultz ending with a 73% snap rate and Xavier Hutchinson checking in with a poor 38% snap rate. Robert Woods did not practice all week and drew a questionable designation, potentially signaling yet another pass-catcher that will be out for the Texans. That should theoretically increase the snaps of Hutchinson and further concentrate the volume on Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and John Metchie. The Chiefs have been nails against opposing wide receivers this season but have given up production to opposing tight ends, ceding the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position this year in what amounts to an inside-funnel structure.