Kickoff Sunday, Jan 19th 6:30pm Eastern

Ravens (
26.25) at

Bills (
25.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Ravens WR Zay Flowers (knee) has yet to practice since suffering a knee injury in the team’s Week 18 win. OC Todd Monken did not rule the speedy receiver out for the team’s Divisional Round contest against the Bills but did say “there is still a lot of talent on this team if Zay (Flowers) is sidelined.”
  • Bills RB Ray Davis (concussion) practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and Thursday, indicating he has three more steps to clear the league’s concussion protocol prior to Sunday.
  • Outside of those two players, both teams are extremely healthy heading into Divisional Weekend.
  • This game has the second-highest game total but closest spread this weekend.
  • The matchup for the Ravens appears to be set up well for additional volume to be concentrated on Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely.
  • The Bills ranked second in scoring per game in the regular season (30.9), while the Ravens ranked third (30.3).

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Last week, with Flowers out of action, the Ravens utilized extreme rates of “heavy” personnel alignments, which we expected going into the game. The tight-end trio of Likely, Andrews, and Charlie Kolar, along with fullback Patrick Ricard, contributed to the Ravens running only nine total offensive snaps (of 74) from 11-personnel against the Steelers (12.2%), holding all wide receivers to 53% snap rates or lower. Realize those tendencies came in a game in which the Ravens controlled throughout, but that should be telling regarding how this team is likely to approach games with Flowers on the sideline. Those tendencies were also utilized the first time these two teams met this season, which came way back in Week 4. In that game, the Ravens controlled the game throughout and utilized 11-personnel on only 13 offensive snaps (of 63, or 20.6%). On the season, the Ravens ran 11-personnel on 123 of 531 snaps when leading (23.2%) and 135 of 325 snaps when trailing (41.5%). Combine those two tendencies with the likely absence of Flowers, and we’re left with an offensive game plan that likely involves extreme rates of heavy personnel against the Bills.

The above discussion should have us feeling pretty good about the expected volume for Henry. Henry now has four consecutive games of 20 or more carries, 138 or more yards on the ground, and 23.9 DK points or more, while scoring five touchdowns in his previous three games. While his volume depends on the flow of the game and the Ravens’ ability to control the environment, the matchup and recent performances from the Baltimore defense add to that potential here. Just remember, Henry is about as “yardage and touchdown” as they come, meaning there are additional paths to failure considering his modest pass-game involvement. The matchup on the ground is a good one on paper against a Bills defense that allowed 2.13 yards before contact per attempt (12th most), 4.5 yards per carry (19th), and 24.6 fantasy points per game (third most) to opposing backfields this season. Justice Hill returned in the Wild Card Round from two missed contests to see 10 running back opportunities (six carries and four targets) on a 39% snap rate, making him a viable, ableit low, pure-ceiling punt play at modest expected ownership.

The Baltimore pass offense leaves a lot to be desired from a median projections standpoint, considering its current state. No wide receiver played more than 53% of the team’s offensive snaps in the Wild Card Round (Tylan Wallace), no pass catcher saw more than four targets, and no pass catcher put up more than 53 receiving yards. But remember, that came in a game the Ravens controlled throughout, which is less likely to be the case considering their Divisional Round opponent. I would expect Rashod Bateman to be the player likeliest to see his snap rate and target rate increase in a more competitive game, while both Andrews and Likely offer interesting upside compared to their respective salaries with the team likely to continue to utilize extreme rates of 12-personnel. The Bills function as a top-down, outside-in defense that forces teams to string together drives and march the field as they swarm to the point of reception. They play some of the highest rates of Cover-2 and Cover-4 in the league, which has led to the fifth-highest two-high utilization rate this season, something that should direct additional volume to the Baltimore tight ends. The Bills allowed 0.48 fantasy points per dropback from two-high this season, which typically came in the form of volume after they allowed the fifth-highest completion rate during the regular season.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

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