Kickoff Saturday, Jan 18th 4:30pm Eastern

Texans (
17) at

Chiefs (
24.5)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Texans OG Shaq Mason upgraded to a limited showing on Wednesday, marking his first practice in three weeks since sustaining an MCL injury in the team’s Week 16 loss to these same Chiefs. KPRC Houston’s Aaron Wilson reports he is likely to miss the team’s Divisional Round contest.
  • Texans WR Robert Woods has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday) with a hip injury. UPDATE: Woods failed to practice on Thursday and drew a questionable designation.
  • The Chiefs emerge from their playoff bye healthy, and could potentially get WR/KR Mecole Hardman back from injured reserve after he logged consecutive limited sessions to start the week.
  • This game probably has the fewest paths to elite fantasy production of the four Divisional Round games this weekend.
  • UPDATE: Texans RB Joe Mixon is listed as questionable after a limited session Wednesday and a ‘DNP’ Thursday with an ankle injury.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans have been an utter disaster since Week 7, there’s really no way to sugarcoat it. They’ve dealt with numerous key injuries, losing Nico Collins for five games in Week 5, losing Stefon Diggs for the season in Week 8, and losing Tank Dell for the season in Week 16, but this team has not had the same magic they did in C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik continues to place the team in long down-and-distance situations due to poor early-down tendencies, something Stroud has had to contend with for the entirety of his two-year NFL career. He blew away all expectations in his rookie season while fighting through those inadequacies, struggling more with it in 2024. The overall identity of this team continues to originate with their defense, providing them the opportunity to be competitive in most games this season. The biggest problem I had with the Texans coming into the postseason was the fact that they had only one win over a playoff team all season, which came back in Week 5 against the Bills, which happened to coincide with the last time they had all of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs on the field together this year (Collins left early with a hamstring injury that would cost him five games following his long touchdown catch). This team appears set to have to overcome the deficiencies discussed above on offense while hoping their defense can keep them in the game here.

Dare Ogunbowale cemented his status as the preferred change of pace back for the Texans after Dameon Pierce dealt with numerous injuries and the team traded away Cam Akers to the Vikings. Lead back Joe Mixon really struggled down the stretch of the regular season after one of the most stellar starts in recent memory. Mixon put up 26.4 DK points in each of his first four fully healthy games before topping 20 DK points just twice in his next nine contests. His 100-yard performance against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round was the first time he went over a modest 57 yards since Week 13 against the Jaguars, which also corresponds to the last time he put up more than 10.6 DK points prior to his 20.9-point effort against the Chargers. While many will think that his performance to end the season is a reflection of a declining veteran, I attribute those shortcomings to the offense, as a whole. That timeframe corresponds to a stretch of poor offensive performances against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens, something that had me down on this team entering the postseason. Even so, Mixon was back up to a 71% snap rate in their Wild Card win, handling a robust 27 opportunities in the win. If this team is to be successful in an upset win over the Chiefs, it likely starts with Mixon (well, it really starts with Bobby Slowik, which, by extension, starts with Mixon). The Chiefs are about the worst possible matchup for opposing run games after holding opposing backfields to 1.71 yards before contact per attempt (seventh), 4.1 yards per carry (seventh), and an NFL-best 15.3 fantasy points per game.

The Chargers clearly placed additional emphasis on alpha wide receiver Nico Collins in the first half of their Wild Card Round matchup, something that led to increased usage for John Metchie. Metchie finished the first half with eight targets and was the target on Stroud’s first half interception and also lost a fumble, highlighting how badly this team needs secondary pass-catchers to step up in the absence of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Metchie finished with a lowly 51% snap rate to match the 51% snap rate of Robert Woods, with tight end Dalton Schultz ending with a 73% snap rate and Xavier Hutchinson checking in with a poor 38% snap rate. Robert Woods did not practice all week and drew a questionable designation, potentially signaling yet another pass-catcher that will be out for the Texans. That should theoretically increase the snaps of Hutchinson and further concentrate the volume on Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and John Metchie. The Chiefs have been nails against opposing wide receivers this season but have given up production to opposing tight ends, ceding the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position this year in what amounts to an inside-funnel structure.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Saturday, Jan 18th 8:00pm Eastern

WFT (
23) at

Lions (
32.5)

Over/Under 55.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • Jayden Daniels continued his stellar rookie season with a road win over the Buccaneers to join a small group of rookie QBs with a playoff victory.
  • Detroit is expected to get RB David Montgomery back from his multi-week absence due to an MCL injury that was originally expected to end his season.
  • This game’s over/under is two touchdowns higher than two of the other three games on the slate.
  • Washington’s defense has performed well on paper over the second half of the season, but a deeper dive shows those stats may be misleading.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Commanders have been outstanding this season, surprising people with a 12-5 regular-season record and then going on the road to beat a solid, veteran Bucs team in last week’s Wild Card game. Four of Washington’s five losses this season were against playoff teams and the Commanders’ only victory over a playoff team was their Week 16 come-from-behind win over the Eagles in a game where Jalen Hurts left with a concussion a few minutes into the game. Said another way, the Commanders have handled their business against lesser teams but had not beaten a playoff team at full strength prior to last week’s win in Tampa Bay. They may be peaking at the right time and a young team with a dynamic rookie QB is always dangerous, but this week they face arguably the top team in the NFL as they travel to Detroit for a showdown with a team on a mission. 

Washington won last week over Tampa Bay by controlling the ball with extended drives and slowing down the game. The Commanders ran 73 offensive plays compared to only 48 for the Bucs, while winning the time-of-possession battle 35:26 to 25:34. Washington accomplished this in large part due to its strong third- and fourth-down conversion rates, as the Commanders were 8-for-15 in converting on third down and 3-for-5 in converting fourth downs, while not punting all game. That game plan could get tricky this week against a Lions defense that allowed the lowest third-down conversion percentage in the NFL this season and the second-lowest fourth-down conversion percentage. The Commanders will likely try to emulate last week’s game plan rather than getting into a shootout with the league’s top scoring offense, but the Lions’ aggressive blitz rate and elite offense are likely to force the issue. 

Washington’s skill players seem to have settled into their roles nicely, with Terry McLaurin maintaining his spot as the clear alpha on this team and posting a terrific game against the Bucs last week. He is now complemented by Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown as capable receivers who are thriving in their roles. Brown made several big plays last week against the Bucs, but Zaccheaus had some huge games against the Eagles and Falcons late in the season as well. Both played over 60% of the snaps last week and are likely to be involved against a Lions team that blitzes at a high rate and has done a good job against opposing WR1s all season. Zach Ertz has been a solid and dependable target when called upon, but his usage went down a bit last week against the Bucs and he may be asked to block a bit more this week to slow down the Lions’ pass rush.

In the backfield, Washington is back to full strength with Austin Ekeler on the field once again. Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. were close to even in snap rate around 50%, with Jeremy McNichols sprinkling in for 10 snaps as well. Ekeler’s abilities as a pass catcher and protector may be called upon in this game as the Commanders try to handle the Detroit pass rush and potentially use some screens and other targets to RBs to relieve pressure. Ultimately, everything in this game is going to come down to Daniels. The Commanders have a fine supporting cast, but they are facing an elite opponent and none of their players besides McLaurin are what we would consider high-caliber NFL weapons from a talent standpoint. Similar to last week, the Commanders are unlikely to do much via the traditional running game and almost everything they get is likely to flow through Daniels either via his arm or his legs.

How DETROIT Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 19th 3:00pm Eastern

Rams (
18.75) at

Eagles (
24.75)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • This is a great showdown between two of the hottest teams in the NFL.
  • The Rams’ defense has been playing at an elite level after a slow, injury-riddled start to the season, while the Eagles are the top-ranked defense in the league.
  • Current forecasts call for temperatures around freezing and a strong chance of snow.
  • Rams WR Cooper Kupp has inexplicably disappeared over the last month of the season and has failed to reach 30 receiving yards in any of his last four games.
  • Saquon Barkley had his best game of his historic season when these teams met in Week 12, a 37-20 Eagles victory.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Rams’ season started slow, but they have been close to as hot as anyone since their Week 6 bye. After their bye, the Rams went 9-2 in their next 11 games prior to resting players in Week 18 with the division clinched. Their nine wins during that stretch included victories over the Bills and Vikings (teams who had 13 and 14 wins this season), and they dominated the Vikings on Monday night, leading 24-3 at halftime before coasting to a victory in the second half. The Rams’ offense gets most of the attention due to household names and head coach Sean McVay’s strong offensive reputation, but their defense has been the key lately. They have held four straight opponents to single-digit points (not counting Week 18 when they rested many key players), which has allowed them to win games with ball control.

As discussed, the defense has been terrific lately. The Rams are playing outstanding complementary football as a team, with only one turnover in their last six games (excluding Week 18). That is an incredible stat, and the Rams will be tested by an Eagles defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA while averaging 1.7 takeaways per game. Additionally, the forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30’s and a strong chance of snow during the game on Sunday. Only one of the Rams’ last eight games has been outdoors and outside of California, while QB Matthew Stafford has historically had poor splits in cold weather. Per Tucker Bagley on Twitter/X, “Matthew Stafford outdoors in the rain/snow: 1-8 record, 54.6% completion percentage, 14 TDs, 11 INTs, 76.0 passer rating.” When we compare those numbers to his career 63.4% completion percentage, roughly 2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, and 91.2 passer rating, we can see that he has struggled in these conditions. This is relatively normal for most QBs – obviously, worse conditions are likely to lead to worse statistics – and the sample size is relatively small, but it is noteworthy nonetheless. When considering the Rams’ recent success has largely depended on controlling the ball and limiting turnovers, this could pose a problem.

The Rams rank 21st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and will lean on their running game and short-area passing when they are able to. They did come out throwing at a high rate last week against a Vikings defense that has been great against the run and brings a lot of pressure. The Rams have not been an overly explosive offense recently, especially in the regular-season games after their shootout with the Bills, but they did have a great first half against the blitz-happy Vikings last week. Matthew Stafford completed passes of 20+ yards to four different receivers in the victory. Kyren Williams is the bell-cow running back and will play nearly every snap with Blake Corum’s season finished due to injury, Williams had 95% of the RB work last week prior to the team running out the clock late. Puka Nacua is the focal point of the offense and sees a target share north of 30% nearly every game, while Kupp has disappeared over the last month and has now gone four straight games with three or fewer targets and fewer than 30 receiving yards while not scoring any touchdowns during that stretch. It is hard not to think he is battling some kind of injury at this point, especially after playing a season-low 55% of the snaps last week. Tight end Tyler Higbee returned late in the season and has emerged recently, averaging six receptions for 52 yards over the last two games and scoring a touchdown. He was targeted five times against the Vikings despite playing only 12 snaps due to a chest injury that has led to limited showings in the first two practices of the week. Higbee, if available, and the Rams’ other WRs may get some extra work again this week if Kupp continues to struggle and the Eagles’ elite secondary is able to limit Puka.

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Jan 19th 6:30pm Eastern

Ravens (
26.25) at

Bills (
25.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Ravens WR Zay Flowers (knee) has yet to practice since suffering a knee injury in the team’s Week 18 win. OC Todd Monken did not rule the speedy receiver out for the team’s Divisional Round contest against the Bills but did say “there is still a lot of talent on this team if Zay (Flowers) is sidelined.”
  • Bills RB Ray Davis (concussion) practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and Thursday, indicating he has three more steps to clear the league’s concussion protocol prior to Sunday.
  • Outside of those two players, both teams are extremely healthy heading into Divisional Weekend.
  • This game has the second-highest game total but closest spread this weekend.
  • The matchup for the Ravens appears to be set up well for additional volume to be concentrated on Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely.
  • The Bills ranked second in scoring per game in the regular season (30.9), while the Ravens ranked third (30.3).

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Last week, with Flowers out of action, the Ravens utilized extreme rates of “heavy” personnel alignments, which we expected going into the game. The tight-end trio of Likely, Andrews, and Charlie Kolar, along with fullback Patrick Ricard, contributed to the Ravens running only nine total offensive snaps (of 74) from 11-personnel against the Steelers (12.2%), holding all wide receivers to 53% snap rates or lower. Realize those tendencies came in a game in which the Ravens controlled throughout, but that should be telling regarding how this team is likely to approach games with Flowers on the sideline. Those tendencies were also utilized the first time these two teams met this season, which came way back in Week 4. In that game, the Ravens controlled the game throughout and utilized 11-personnel on only 13 offensive snaps (of 63, or 20.6%). On the season, the Ravens ran 11-personnel on 123 of 531 snaps when leading (23.2%) and 135 of 325 snaps when trailing (41.5%). Combine those two tendencies with the likely absence of Flowers, and we’re left with an offensive game plan that likely involves extreme rates of heavy personnel against the Bills.

The above discussion should have us feeling pretty good about the expected volume for Henry. Henry now has four consecutive games of 20 or more carries, 138 or more yards on the ground, and 23.9 DK points or more, while scoring five touchdowns in his previous three games. While his volume depends on the flow of the game and the Ravens’ ability to control the environment, the matchup and recent performances from the Baltimore defense add to that potential here. Just remember, Henry is about as “yardage and touchdown” as they come, meaning there are additional paths to failure considering his modest pass-game involvement. The matchup on the ground is a good one on paper against a Bills defense that allowed 2.13 yards before contact per attempt (12th most), 4.5 yards per carry (19th), and 24.6 fantasy points per game (third most) to opposing backfields this season. Justice Hill returned in the Wild Card Round from two missed contests to see 10 running back opportunities (six carries and four targets) on a 39% snap rate, making him a viable, ableit low, pure-ceiling punt play at modest expected ownership.

The Baltimore pass offense leaves a lot to be desired from a median projections standpoint, considering its current state. No wide receiver played more than 53% of the team’s offensive snaps in the Wild Card Round (Tylan Wallace), no pass catcher saw more than four targets, and no pass catcher put up more than 53 receiving yards. But remember, that came in a game the Ravens controlled throughout, which is less likely to be the case considering their Divisional Round opponent. I would expect Rashod Bateman to be the player likeliest to see his snap rate and target rate increase in a more competitive game, while both Andrews and Likely offer interesting upside compared to their respective salaries with the team likely to continue to utilize extreme rates of 12-personnel. The Bills function as a top-down, outside-in defense that forces teams to string together drives and march the field as they swarm to the point of reception. They play some of the highest rates of Cover-2 and Cover-4 in the league, which has led to the fifth-highest two-high utilization rate this season, something that should direct additional volume to the Baltimore tight ends. The Bills allowed 0.48 fantasy points per dropback from two-high this season, which typically came in the form of volume after they allowed the fifth-highest completion rate during the regular season.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

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