GAME Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Jayden Daniels continued his stellar rookie season with a road win over the Buccaneers to join a small group of rookie QBs with a playoff victory.
- Detroit is expected to get RB David Montgomery back from his multi-week absence due to an MCL injury that was originally expected to end his season.
- This game’s over/under is two touchdowns higher than two of the other three games on the slate.
- Washington’s defense has performed well on paper over the second half of the season, but a deeper dive shows those stats may be misleading.
HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Commanders have been outstanding this season, surprising people with a 12-5 regular-season record and then going on the road to beat a solid, veteran Bucs team in last week’s Wild Card game. Four of Washington’s five losses this season were against playoff teams and the Commanders’ only victory over a playoff team was their Week 16 come-from-behind win over the Eagles in a game where Jalen Hurts left with a concussion a few minutes into the game. Said another way, the Commanders have handled their business against lesser teams but had not beaten a playoff team at full strength prior to last week’s win in Tampa Bay. They may be peaking at the right time and a young team with a dynamic rookie QB is always dangerous, but this week they face arguably the top team in the NFL as they travel to Detroit for a showdown with a team on a mission.
Washington won last week over Tampa Bay by controlling the ball with extended drives and slowing down the game. The Commanders ran 73 offensive plays compared to only 48 for the Bucs, while winning the time-of-possession battle 35:26 to 25:34. Washington accomplished this in large part due to its strong third- and fourth-down conversion rates, as the Commanders were 8-for-15 in converting on third down and 3-for-5 in converting fourth downs, while not punting all game. That game plan could get tricky this week against a Lions defense that allowed the lowest third-down conversion percentage in the NFL this season and the second-lowest fourth-down conversion percentage. The Commanders will likely try to emulate last week’s game plan rather than getting into a shootout with the league’s top scoring offense, but the Lions’ aggressive blitz rate and elite offense are likely to force the issue.
Washington’s skill players seem to have settled into their roles nicely, with Terry McLaurin maintaining his spot as the clear alpha on this team and posting a terrific game against the Bucs last week. He is now complemented by Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown as capable receivers who are thriving in their roles. Brown made several big plays last week against the Bucs, but Zaccheaus had some huge games against the Eagles and Falcons late in the season as well. Both played over 60% of the snaps last week and are likely to be involved against a Lions team that blitzes at a high rate and has done a good job against opposing WR1s all season. Zach Ertz has been a solid and dependable target when called upon, but his usage went down a bit last week against the Bucs and he may be asked to block a bit more this week to slow down the Lions’ pass rush.
In the backfield, Washington is back to full strength with Austin Ekeler on the field once again. Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. were close to even in snap rate around 50%, with Jeremy McNichols sprinkling in for 10 snaps as well. Ekeler’s abilities as a pass catcher and protector may be called upon in this game as the Commanders try to handle the Detroit pass rush and potentially use some screens and other targets to RBs to relieve pressure. Ultimately, everything in this game is going to come down to Daniels. The Commanders have a fine supporting cast, but they are facing an elite opponent and none of their players besides McLaurin are what we would consider high-caliber NFL weapons from a talent standpoint. Similar to last week, the Commanders are unlikely to do much via the traditional running game and almost everything they get is likely to flow through Daniels either via his arm or his legs.