Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- James Conner is in a solid on-paper spot here.
- Drew Petzing’s run scheme is phenomenal, but his pass scheme is borderline ridiculously bad. Low pre-snap motions rates, low play action rates, and a low emphasis on downfield passing are going to be hard to overcome for the primary pass-catchers in this offense all season unless he changes the way he has built his offense during the offseason.
- There aren’t many clear paths for this game to elevate beyond its game total due to how we expect both of these teams to game plan coming in.
- Taking a step back from name recognition and offseason hype, there are currently 14 teams with a Vegas-implied team total higher than the Cardinals’ 21 points on the main slate.
- The Bills pass offense is a breeding ground of uncertainty entering the year.
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
Head coach Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals did what they could to keep their collective heads above water last season with a poor mix of personnel on the defensive side of the ball, quarterback Kyler Murray starting the season on the PUP list, and no true alpha pass-catcher. Things, understandably, did not go well as they surrendered a 31st-ranked 26.8 points per game while scoring just 19.4 points per game. Things got slightly better once Murray returned in Week 10 as they averaged 22.4 points per game over their final eight contests (would have ranked 14th over the full season, ahead of the Chiefs). Most notably, Petzing’s 2023 offense finished the regular season ranked second in yards per carry (5.0) and 29th in yards per pass attempt (6.2). Petzing, a longtime offensive assistant in the league, shied away from pre-snap motion and play action in 2023, something that hindered Murray’s ability to attack the deep areas of the field. His 7.3 intended air yards per pass attempt ranked 24th in the league, and that was with the speed of Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore on the field. The more straightforward passing game concepts rest in stark contrast to his dynamic run scheme, which, in my opinion, will place a hard cap on this pass offense for as long as his tendencies remain unchanged. Yes, they have one of the most dynamic young tight ends in Trey McBride and arguably the top wide receiver prospect to enter the league since Justin Jefferson, but this pass offense is static on paper and lacks much creativity, placing the responsibility on the pass-catcher to win as opposed to placing him in the best opportunity to win. To that end, I expect the Cardinals to continue pounding the ball on the ground for as long as possible against the Bills here.
Lead back James Conner’s participation in the passing game continues to fall as his career has progressed, but the Leukemia survivor’s yards per carry and underlying rushing metrics were nothing short of spectacular last season. His 6.3% breakaway run rate ranked seventh in the league while evading the 10th most tackles. Some of that revival should be attributed to Petzing’s run-blocking scheme, which remains one of the better designs in the league. Even so, Conner was in a route at a lowly 33.6% clip last season and managed just 27 receptions. As in, he’ll need to maintain extreme efficiency, hold off a budding rookie nipping at his heels, stay healthy, and maintain a robust red zone role in order to hit this season. That’s a lot of hoops to jump through. But in this spot, all of that aligns with how we expect the Cardinals to approach their game plan against the Bills, and Trey Benson is likely not ready for more than strict change of pace duties. The Bills are fresh off a season in which they allowed a robust 4.7 yards per carry and lost multiple members of the linebacker and secondary units during the offseason. Conner is in a solid on-paper spot here, albeit one that likely requires 100 yards and multiple touchdowns to return GPP goodness.
Kyler Murray attempted 268 passes in 10 games last season, only 65 of which came behind play action. For comparison, Jared Goff attempted 606 passes, and 160 of them were behind play action. I use those as the comparison because of the similarities between the two offenses, primarily with their respective run games. All of that boils down to mean that Petzing does little to leverage his elite run game through the air, instead treating it as a relative afterthought. Murray also saw a lowly 23.0% yards per attempt boost behind play action, which ranked 21st in the league (that’s about the same as Bryce Young and Russell Wilson at 21.0%). Until I see Petzing ramping up the downfield aggression and layering more dynamic routes, it will be hard for me to target this passing game, personally. But they still have one of the most dynamic young tight ends and wide receivers in the game, so time will tell. I’m simply relaying what I saw on tape last season. There’s also little doubt that both McBride and Harrison Jr will absolutely dominate the targets in this offense, and volume means a lot in PPR formats. Second-year wide receiver Michael Wilson should start opposite Harrison in heavy alignments, while it finally appears Greg Dortch will see a full (slot) allotment of snaps. We’ve continued to rave about Dortch’s abilities against man coverage and his ability to win within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage, something that could come into play when this team faces an elite pass rush. The Bills did manage 54 sacks a season ago but lost some elite players in the second level this offseason.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.