Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Denver enters this game with a 6-5 record and the inside track to an AFC playoff berth in Bo Nix’s rookie season.
- Javonte Williams seized back control of the Denver backfield from rookie Audric Estime in Week 11.
- Nix had a career game last week and has been extremely opponent-sensitive thus far in his career, now facing the Raiders league-worst coverage unit.
- Rookie sensation Brock Bowers continued his torrid pace that is setting records at the tight-end position with a career-best game against the Dolphins.
- The Raiders top two RBs left Week 11 with injuries and did not practice Wednesday, leaving an already poor Vegas running game potentially very short-handed.
HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Broncos struggled offensively early in the year and then had a spark of three games with good offensive production against the Raiders, Saints, and Panthers in which they averaged 32 points per game. They returned to earth with only 26 total points in their two games against the Ravens and Chiefs before smashing the Falcons in Week 11 by a score of 38-6. Are we sensing a trend here? The Broncos do not have elite physical talent and their scheme is fine, but not great. They are good enough to do very well against weak opponents but must rely on their defense to compete with strong opponents in close, low-scoring games. Luckily for them, this week they travel to face the Raiders 28th-ranked defense that they dropped 34 points on way back in Week 5.
The Las Vegas defense struggles in multiple areas, allowing opponents to have success on the ground against them while also giving up a 69% completion rate. Perhaps the biggest issue for the Raiders is their inability to create negative plays for their opponents, ranking 32nd in turnovers forced and 28th in sacks for the season. Given the Broncos’ results so far this season against lower-tier defenses, including the Raiders, we should expect them to have a good deal of success. Their main offensive weapon is Courtland Sutton, and they involve multiple players at each of their other positions. Nix has shredded the soft matchups this year and we should expect this week to be no different, with head coach Sean Payton continuing to let him sling it. The Broncos’ wide distribution of playing time, targets, and touches is frustrating from a fantasy perspective but has proven to be an asset for Denver in these matchups, as Nix is throwing to the open man rather than feeling a “hierarchy” of who should be getting the ball how much. This formula is less effective against stronger defenses because the Broncos’ skill group is unable to win in many of those matchups and Nix is left dealing with more pressure and tighter windows. This should be a week where he once again has time to throw and is able to dice up the Raiders at all levels of the field. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four weeks and we are likely to see them once again lean on their rookie signal-caller to be the engine of their offense, with their running back committee complementing that passing game with a high efficiency outing for their standards.
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