Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Bears RB D’Andre Swift (groin) did not practice Wednesday, with head coach Matt Eberflus calling his absence “precautionary.” Swift reportedly picked up the injury in the team’s Week 11 loss to the Packers.
- The Bears offense looked a lot different in Week 11 against the Packers but will need to continue to improve moving forward. Most notably to me from the tape, the situational play calling tendencies improved significantly but the structure of the offense has a long way to go before we consider this team to be magically fixed.
- The likeliest scenario and clearest deviation from the game environment leave a lot to be desired from this game.
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison was unable to finish the team’s Week 11 game while experiencing “lower extremity cramping.” That ailment is unlikely to hold him out against the Bears.
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings rank eighth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but have just one game all season with a PROE greater than one standard deviation from expectation in either direction, a Week 2 win over the 49ers. It should then make sense that quarterback Sam Darnold has attempted 32 passes or less in eight of 10 games this season, going over that against the Jaguars in a surprisingly close Week 10 game (38) and the Colts in a surprisingly close game in Week 9 (34). Their defense is playing so well this season (fourth-ranked 17.0 points allowed per game) that their offense simply hasn’t needed to keep their feet on the gas in many instances. Furthermore, they have seen their pace of play fall off a cliff this season after being near the top of the league in 2023 (29th-ranked pace of play), which has left them right around the league average in plays per game at 61.7. All of that to say, this is no longer a team we can look to for consistently high volume, instead relegating players from the Vikings to “bet on per-touch upside or multiple touchdowns.” Considering the Bears have vastly underperformed offensive expectations this season and will be just 12 days removed from an offensive coordinator change at the time this game takes place, it stands to reason that the Vikings are not likely to be forced into increased volume in this spot.
Aaron Jones in the three games since the addition of Cam Akers: 75%, 52%, and 52% snap rate, 53 carries to 29 of Akers, 3.60 yards per carry (3.76 for Akers), and a lowly 0.04 missed tackles forced per attempt (0.10 for Akers). The only meaningful metric Jones leads Akers in is yards after contact per attempt (2.00 to 1.90 for Akers), with neither back rushing to any meaningful efficiency in that time. Akers has even gotten five targets to the eight of Jones. In other words, this now appears to be closer to a 1A/1B situation than it was earlier in the season before Akers joined the team. The Bears are now up (or, down?) to the second most yards allowed before contact per attempt in the league at a gaudy 2.60 but the Minnesota offensive line has vastly underperformed run-blocking expectations this season, blocking to only 1.63 yards before contact per attempt, and the Minnesota backs are doing very little to create yards on their own.
Justin Jefferson continues to do elite Justin Jefferson things, the custodian of truly elite metrics through the air this season. His 2.91 yards per route run ranks fifth in the league behind only Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice (RIP), and Puka Nacua. His 34.7% first-read target rate ranks sixth. He has seen the third most end zone targets. The volume, while consistent, has left him with zero games over 26.3 DK points this season. He is as good a bet as any wide receiver in the league to see eight to nine targets but has just one game all season of double-digit looks. The offense has also shifted to a heavier emphasis on “jumbo” personnel packages, checking in just below the league average in 11-personnel utilization. Tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to see his snap rate increase after coming back to the team in Week 9, playing between 45% and 48% of the team’s offensive snaps in each game. That has left Jordan Addison as the only other near every-down pass-catcher in the offense and he is coming off a game in which he left early with cramping in his leg. Basically, volume is extremely hard to come by in this offense for all players not named Justin Jefferson, and even then we haven’t seen him see elite volume this season to warrant a steep price tag. The Bears have allowed just 197.4 pass yards per game and are tied with the Lions for the fewest passing touchdowns allowed this season, making this a difficult on-paper spot.
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