Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Lions TE Sam LaPorta appears primed to return from a one-game absence due to a shoulder injury after logging full practices each day this week (through Thursday).
- Colts WR Michael Pittman logged consecutive full practices, indicating a high likelihood he is good to go against the Lions.
- Colts WR Josh Downs was added to the injury report on Thursday with a calf injury but still logged a full practice. Truth in reporting, I guess?
- As we thought would be the case heading into Week 11, the Indianapolis offense looked a lot different than it did earlier in the season with Anthony Richardson under center.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is set to take on a defense playing from Cover-3 at the fourth highest rate in the league this season. You know what that means (and if you don’t, don’t worry, I’ll lay it out below).
How detroit Will Try To Win ::
The answer to “how Detroit will try to win” is more “any way they damn well choose” than it is dependent on the matchup or state of their team. They have been that good, and able to win in that many different ways. Take last week, for example – all signs pointed to this team being able to dominate the game on the ground and they came out and fed Amon-Ra St. Brown only his second double-digit target game of the season in a massive 52-6 blowout. It was the first game of the season where multiple pass-catchers went over 100 yards. It was only the third game all season where Jared Goff had three or more passing touchdowns and his first game of the year with four. It was only the third game all season where Goff had more than 300 yards through the air. We might not ever know why they chose to keep their feet on the gas against a far inferior opponent; maybe it was washing the taste of a five-pick game out of their mouths, maybe they are fine-tuning their offense as we head towards the end of the regular season, maybe Dan Campbell woke up on the wrong side of the bed and wanted utter devastation. All we know is that the Lions still only attempted 33 passes (29 from Goff before giving way to Hendon Hooker) versus 43 team carries and they were able to run a robust 79 offensive plays from scrimmage, their second highest number of the season and largest since their 55 pass attempt game against the Buccaneers in Week 2. With that in mind, all signs point to the Lions being able to overpower the Colts on the strength of both the offensive and defensive lines, which should allow them to control the tempo of this game.
The standard baseline we have from this backfield held true a week ago, with a near-even split between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in a game the Lions won handily. Considering the Lions are currently instilled at 7.5-point favorites on the road, the likeliest scenario leaves this backfield in another near-even split in snaps, with the opportunity dispersal mostly up to situational variance. That also means that neither back is overly likely to see more than 15-18 opportunities, with the back most likely to end in that range being Montgomery. The Colts have been middle of the pack this season against the run but have improved greatly with a healthy defensive interior, allowing just 4.06 yards per carry in the previous four games since the return of DeForest Buckner (4.62 yards allowed per carry through Week 7). Even so, the Lions have generated the third most yards before contact and have two primary backs that are averaging over 3.2 yards after contact per attempt.
Amon-Ra St. Brown against a team playing Cover-3 at the league’s fourth-highest rate this season (40.0%) seems like a pretty cool setup. St. Brown holds ridiculous metrics against Cover-3 this season, with 0.30 targets per route run, a 27.4% target share, 2.59 yards per route run, a 31.0% first-read target rate, and 0.58 fantasy points per route run. Believe it or not, those numbers are actually down compared to last season. There is no hiding the fact that Sun God is one of the most talented receivers against zone and Cover-3 currently playing in the league, with the biggest problem for his weekly ceiling being what had been poor (for him) weekly volume in an offense that had appeared to be content to control the tempo and flow of games until they completely annihilated the Jaguars a week ago. In other words, if this team holds even league-average pass volume, St. Brown has a ridiculous upside in this matchup. No other pass-catcher on this offense has seen more than a modest 13 targets against Cover-3 this season (St. Brown has 30 already). Sam LaPorta appears set to return from his one-game absence due to a shoulder injury while Jameson Williams always carries immense per-target upside as the field stretcher in this offense. Tim Patrick has worked his way into the primary WR3, although both Kalif Raymond and Allen Robinson should see enough snaps to keep Patrick’s weekly range of outcomes rather lacking.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.