Steelers (

20) at
Browns (

16.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 12 begins with a truly unexciting game as the Steelers visit the Browns. This one has a whopping 36.5 point total with Pittsburgh favored by 3.5. This has been bet down from a 43.5 point open and I’m guessing that’s partly due to both of these offenses floundering in Week 11 as well as some potential weather in this game (I’ll remind you of my general weather rule: the impact of weather is overrated unless we get a really, really windy game). It’s a super exciting way to begin the week!

Cleveland

On the Browns side, Nick Chubb returned in Week 7 and has resumed his lead two-down back role. The problem is, the Browns have only won one of four games since then, and that game was against Baltimore (who are of course elite against the run but vulnerable through the air), so we haven’t really seen Chubb . . . well, do much of anything. He’s had between 11 and 16 carries in each game and played 61% of the snaps in the game they won, which I think is about what we can expect in a close game. He may creep towards 20 carries if the Browns are playing from ahead, but that’s probably a best-case scenario. He also hadn’t looked all that effective since returning, rushing for just 3.1 yards per carry. Yikes. With near-zero passing game involvement, it’s just tough to get excited here at $9,000, but we should always remember the “RB1 in Showdown” rule, which is that they’re always viable because you can just never predict when they happen to fall into a multi-touchdown game. I’m not going to strive to play a ton of Chubb, but in what is likely to be a low-scoring game, it’s entirely plausible that something like 60-80 rushing yards and a touchdown gets him into the optimal lineup. Jerome Ford has become the passing down back with 7 carries and 7 targets in Cleveland’s last two games. Generally, that’s a role we’re looking to pay for in the $2k to $3k range, but he’s $4,400, so a bit more expensive than we’d like. Finally, Pierre Strong has gotten the occasional garbage time carry and thus needs to be mentioned as someone who may at least see the field. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Steelers have not been quite as good as their reputation might make us think. They’re actually right about average in opposing passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt. It’s not that this is a great matchup for the Browns passing game, but it is perhaps not as bad as many will think, and of course, Cleveland’s passing game has done much better since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback in Week 8. Winston has averaged 43 pass attempts and 321 passing yards per game with a 6:3 TD:int ratio. Not shabby. Winston’s target distribution of the Browns main pass catchers in his three full games is Cedric Tillman 28, Jerry Jeudy 30, Elijah Moore 29, and David Njoku 23. I listed Tillman first because he sure seemed like the WR1, but really it’s pretty even, though worth noting that Moore’s volume is lower upside, he’s running shorter routes. Jeudy finally broke through for a huge game last week (at low ownership for most of the field, though OWS was on him!), Tillman had a huge game in Week 8, and otherwise, all of these guys have had solid performances since Winston took over. It’s been hard to predict where they’re coming from, though. The usage here is so evenly distributed that it’s hard to really give someone an edge. I will note that Njoku and Moore are both questionable but both were listed as being limited in Cleveland’s Monday injury report, but that’s generally a good sign for playing on Thursday. I expect they will both be in, but of course, if they miss it tightens things up significantly. What’s kind of funny is these four guys are all priced next to each other as well with nobody in between them – from Jeudy at $8k to Moore at $6.4k. So, with price considered, I will say that Tillman is my overall favorite. I think he’s pretty close to Jeudy in expected output but he’s $1k cheaper. Jeudy would be my next favorite, then Njoku, then Moore (who just doesn’t have the ceiling of the other guys). They’re all pretty close, and if ownership projections end up showing one of them going overlooked, I’m happy to go overweight the lower owned guy, whoever he is. I consider it highly likely that at least one of these guys ends up in the optimal lineup. I also think the vast majority of rosters (perhaps as much as 90%) will have at least one of them, creating a strategy question. Do you go with what’s most likely to happen, or do you try to dodge ownership and hope the scoring comes via other avenues? Cleveland’s passing game is very focused on those four, but you could take shots on WR4 Jamari Thrash or TE2 Jordan Akins – they’d be MME punt options. 

Pittsburgh