Week 12 Matchups


Kickoff Thursday, Nov 21st 8:15pm Eastern

Steelers (
20) at

Browns (
16.5)

Over/Under 36.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 12 begins with a truly unexciting game as the Steelers visit the Browns. This one has a whopping 36.5 point total with Pittsburgh favored by 3.5. This has been bet down from a 43.5 point open and I’m guessing that’s partly due to both of these offenses floundering in Week 11 as well as some potential weather in this game (I’ll remind you of my general weather rule: the impact of weather is overrated unless we get a really, really windy game). It’s a super exciting way to begin the week!

Cleveland

On the Browns side, Nick Chubb returned in Week 7 and has resumed his lead two-down back role. The problem is, the Browns have only won one of four games since then, and that game was against Baltimore (who are of course elite against the run but vulnerable through the air), so we haven’t really seen Chubb . . . well, do much of anything. He’s had between 11 and 16 carries in each game and played 61% of the snaps in the game they won, which I think is about what we can expect in a close game. He may creep towards 20 carries if the Browns are playing from ahead, but that’s probably a best-case scenario. He also hadn’t looked all that effective since returning, rushing for just 3.1 yards per carry. Yikes. With near-zero passing game involvement, it’s just tough to get excited here at $9,000, but we should always remember the “RB1 in Showdown” rule, which is that they’re always viable because you can just never predict when they happen to fall into a multi-touchdown game. I’m not going to strive to play a ton of Chubb, but in what is likely to be a low-scoring game, it’s entirely plausible that something like 60-80 rushing yards and a touchdown gets him into the optimal lineup. Jerome Ford has become the passing down back with 7 carries and 7 targets in Cleveland’s last two games. Generally, that’s a role we’re looking to pay for in the $2k to $3k range, but he’s $4,400, so a bit more expensive than we’d like. Finally, Pierre Strong has gotten the occasional garbage time carry and thus needs to be mentioned as someone who may at least see the field. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Steelers have not been quite as good as their reputation might make us think. They’re actually right about average in opposing passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt. It’s not that this is a great matchup for the Browns passing game, but it is perhaps not as bad as many will think, and of course, Cleveland’s passing game has done much better since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback in Week 8. Winston has averaged 43 pass attempts and 321 passing yards per game with a 6:3 TD:int ratio. Not shabby. Winston’s target distribution of the Browns main pass catchers in his three full games is Cedric Tillman 28, Jerry Jeudy 30, Elijah Moore 29, and David Njoku 23. I listed Tillman first because he sure seemed like the WR1, but really it’s pretty even, though worth noting that Moore’s volume is lower upside, he’s running shorter routes. Jeudy finally broke through for a huge game last week (at low ownership for most of the field, though OWS was on him!), Tillman had a huge game in Week 8, and otherwise, all of these guys have had solid performances since Winston took over. It’s been hard to predict where they’re coming from, though. The usage here is so evenly distributed that it’s hard to really give someone an edge. I will note that Njoku and Moore are both questionable but both were listed as being limited in Cleveland’s Monday injury report, but that’s generally a good sign for playing on Thursday. I expect they will both be in, but of course, if they miss it tightens things up significantly. What’s kind of funny is these four guys are all priced next to each other as well with nobody in between them – from Jeudy at $8k to Moore at $6.4k. So, with price considered, I will say that Tillman is my overall favorite. I think he’s pretty close to Jeudy in expected output but he’s $1k cheaper. Jeudy would be my next favorite, then Njoku, then Moore (who just doesn’t have the ceiling of the other guys). They’re all pretty close, and if ownership projections end up showing one of them going overlooked, I’m happy to go overweight the lower owned guy, whoever he is. I consider it highly likely that at least one of these guys ends up in the optimal lineup. I also think the vast majority of rosters (perhaps as much as 90%) will have at least one of them, creating a strategy question. Do you go with what’s most likely to happen, or do you try to dodge ownership and hope the scoring comes via other avenues? Cleveland’s passing game is very focused on those four, but you could take shots on WR4 Jamari Thrash or TE2 Jordan Akins – they’d be MME punt options. 

Pittsburgh

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
26.75) at

Panthers (
16.25)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>
  • Isiah Pacheco is tentatively expected to make his return from the IR this week. If he doesn’t return, Kareem Hunt is underpriced.  
  • Jonathon Brooks will make his season debut for the Panthers and is likely to cut into Chuba Hubbard’s workload. 
  • DeAndre Hopkins played 47% of the snaps last week with JuJu Smith-Schuster healthy. 
  • Patrick Mahomes has scored above 20 DK points only once all year and hasn’t broken 25 DK points in any game. 
  • Travis Kelce posted a four-target dud last week, but the prior three weeks he saw elite target volume. His price decreased by $500, despite an excellent matchup.
  • Bryce Young has looked serviceable the past two games, but both of his wins came against weak defenses. 
  • Adam Thielen is expected to return, which should squeeze Jalen Coker’s usage. 
  • Xavier Legette is functioning as the WR1 since the Panthers traded away Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

It’s hard to win every game, and the 1972 Dolphins can officially pop their bottle of champagne. The 9-1 Chiefs are coming off a hard-fought loss, on the road, against an 8-2 Bills team that looks like their biggest competition in the AFC. The Patrick Mahomes Chiefs being 9-1 feels like old news, but what has been different this year is how they’re winning. The Chiefs have been an extremely pass-heavy team during the Andy Reid/Mahomes era. This year, they’ve been more pass-leaning than pass-heavy. The Chiefs led the league with a positive 7% // 11% // 10% // 10% pass rate over expectation (PROE) value in each of the past four years respectively. This year, they still rank No. 2 in PROE, but with only a positive 2% value. The Chiefs, like the rest of the league (except the Bengals), have eased up on their pass-heavy tendencies. Also, it’s not as if the Chiefs have been overpowering (13th in DVOA) when they do pass. Their offensive line is still good (No. 6 rank by PFF), and they’re especially strong at the interior positions. Of the 10 pressures they allowed against the Bills, seven of them were by one of the two tackles. The Panthers won’t be able to take advantage (31st in sack percentage) since they’ve failed to generate a pass rush all year. The Chiefs’ offense has been mediocre, and they’ve run up an impressive record on the back of their defense, which has been strong (seventh in overall DVOA), while allowing the fourth-fewest points in the AFC. 

Reid is a savvy coach who has always leaned into the passing game but is willing to adjust if his opponent is more vulnerable against the run because of scheme or personnel. This week, Reid sees a bottom-feeding Panthers defense that has been whooped (32nd in DVOA) on the ground and smacked (30th in DVOA) through the air. The Panthers barely-there defense has been beat coming and going. They are nothing but least resistance and Reid should be able to move the ball however he chooses. Normally, that would be with a pass-heavy game plan, but with the Chiefs being more balanced this year and the expected return of Pacheco from the IR, there is a good chance Reid decides the easiest thing to do is run over the helpless Panthers. Reid has been willing to slow down (23rd in seconds per play) this season, while running the ball and playing defense. That’s an easy formula for coming out of this game with a victory, and it’s the most likely way the Chiefs will try to win.

How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
21.25) at

Bears (
18.25)

Over/Under 39.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Bears RB D’Andre Swift (groin) did not practice Wednesday, with head coach Matt Eberflus calling his absence “precautionary.” Swift reportedly picked up the injury in the team’s Week 11 loss to the Packers.
  • The Bears offense looked a lot different in Week 11 against the Packers but will need to continue to improve moving forward. Most notably to me from the tape, the situational play calling tendencies improved significantly but the structure of the offense has a long way to go before we consider this team to be magically fixed.
  • The likeliest scenario and clearest deviation from the game environment leave a lot to be desired from this game.
  • Vikings WR Jordan Addison was unable to finish the team’s Week 11 game while experiencing “lower extremity cramping.” That ailment is unlikely to hold him out against the Bears.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings rank eighth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but have just one game all season with a PROE greater than one standard deviation from expectation in either direction, a Week 2 win over the 49ers. It should then make sense that quarterback Sam Darnold has attempted 32 passes or less in eight of 10 games this season, going over that against the Jaguars in a surprisingly close Week 10 game (38) and the Colts in a surprisingly close game in Week 9 (34). Their defense is playing so well this season (fourth-ranked 17.0 points allowed per game) that their offense simply hasn’t needed to keep their feet on the gas in many instances. Furthermore, they have seen their pace of play fall off a cliff this season after being near the top of the league in 2023 (29th-ranked pace of play), which has left them right around the league average in plays per game at 61.7. All of that to say, this is no longer a team we can look to for consistently high volume, instead relegating players from the Vikings to “bet on per-touch upside or multiple touchdowns.” Considering the Bears have vastly underperformed offensive expectations this season and will be just 12 days removed from an offensive coordinator change at the time this game takes place, it stands to reason that the Vikings are not likely to be forced into increased volume in this spot.

Aaron Jones in the three games since the addition of Cam Akers: 75%, 52%, and 52% snap rate, 53 carries to 29 of Akers, 3.60 yards per carry (3.76 for Akers), and a lowly 0.04 missed tackles forced per attempt (0.10 for Akers). The only meaningful metric Jones leads Akers in is yards after contact per attempt (2.00 to 1.90 for Akers), with neither back rushing to any meaningful efficiency in that time. Akers has even gotten five targets to the eight of Jones. In other words, this now appears to be closer to a 1A/1B situation than it was earlier in the season before Akers joined the team. The Bears are now up (or, down?) to the second most yards allowed before contact per attempt in the league at a gaudy 2.60 but the Minnesota offensive line has vastly underperformed run-blocking expectations this season, blocking to only 1.63 yards before contact per attempt, and the Minnesota backs are doing very little to create yards on their own.

Justin Jefferson continues to do elite Justin Jefferson things, the custodian of truly elite metrics through the air this season. His 2.91 yards per route run ranks fifth in the league behind only Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice (RIP), and Puka Nacua. His 34.7% first-read target rate ranks sixth. He has seen the third most end zone targets. The volume, while consistent, has left him with zero games over 26.3 DK points this season. He is as good a bet as any wide receiver in the league to see eight to nine targets but has just one game all season of double-digit looks. The offense has also shifted to a heavier emphasis on “jumbo” personnel packages, checking in just below the league average in 11-personnel utilization. Tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to see his snap rate increase after coming back to the team in Week 9, playing between 45% and 48% of the team’s offensive snaps in each game. That has left Jordan Addison as the only other near every-down pass-catcher in the offense and he is coming off a game in which he left early with cramping in his leg. Basically, volume is extremely hard to come by in this offense for all players not named Justin Jefferson, and even then we haven’t seen him see elite volume this season to warrant a steep price tag. The Bears have allowed just 197.4 pass yards per game and are tied with the Lions for the fewest passing touchdowns allowed this season, making this a difficult on-paper spot.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
16.25) at

Texans (
24.25)

Over/Under 40.5

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Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • The Titans have scored over 20 points only one time all season and rank 28th in the NFL in offensive DVOA.
  • Will Levis has been relatively solid for the Titans in his two games since returning to the lineup, completing 65% of his passes and turning the ball over only one time – while adding 60 yards rushing.
  • Calvin Ridley has 38 targets in the four games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded and RB Tyjae Spears is likely to miss this game, leaving Tony Pollard in a full-time role.
  • Houston WR Nico Collins returned to the lineup on Monday night and looked fully healthy, making some explosive plays but playing somewhat limited snaps in the blowout.
  • Joe Mixon has one of the best RB roles in the league and has produced as well as anyone at the position on a per-game basis in 2024.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Titans rank 27th in offensive DVOA and have scored 20 or less points in nine of 10 games this season. Levis has been inconsistent as a passer, to put it mildly, and has made several head-scratching decisions that cost the Titans games. Their defense is good enough to keep most game environments relatively close, which limits play volume and keeps Tennessee’s ancillary players from being relevant most weeks. The Titans rank 26th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the year despite their 2-8 record and the fact that their last four losses have been by an average of 20 points, with none being one-possession games. 

Levis missed several weeks with a shoulder injury and has been back for two weeks with solid performances against two very good defenses in the Chargers and Vikings. Unfortunately for Levis, it does not get any easier this week as he travels to face the third-ranked defense of the Texans. The Titans’ offense will revolve primarily around Ridley and Pollard, as Spears suffered a concussion last week and is expected to miss this game. Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a 98-yard TD last week and is playing an every-down role since Hopkins was traded. He has a touchdown in five of the last six games, which is wildly impressive considering how few touchdowns the Titans have scored this season. Ridley has been far more effective against man coverage than zone this season, and Houston plays a top-8 rate of zone coverage, which theoretically sets Westbrook-Ikhine up very well in this spot. The Texans’ defense has been terrific this season and may be getting stronger with the return of DE Will Anderson Jr. and CB Kamari Lassiter to the field this week after they missed Monday night with ankle and head injuries, respectively. Expect Tennessee to do everything it can to slow the game down and control the ball and tempo, relying on its defense to keep this game close and hoping for the best. The Titans will have to “bring Houston down to their level” if they want any chance of pulling off the huge upset.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
28.75) at

Colts (
21.75)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Lions TE Sam LaPorta appears primed to return from a one-game absence due to a shoulder injury after logging full practices each day this week (through Thursday).
  • Colts WR Michael Pittman logged consecutive full practices, indicating a high likelihood he is good to go against the Lions.
  • Colts WR Josh Downs was added to the injury report on Thursday with a calf injury but still logged a full practice. Truth in reporting, I guess?
  • As we thought would be the case heading into Week 11, the Indianapolis offense looked a lot different than it did earlier in the season with Anthony Richardson under center.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is set to take on a defense playing from Cover-3 at the fourth highest rate in the league this season. You know what that means (and if you don’t, don’t worry, I’ll lay it out below).

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The answer to “how Detroit will try to win” is more “any way they damn well choose” than it is dependent on the matchup or state of their team. They have been that good, and able to win in that many different ways. Take last week, for example – all signs pointed to this team being able to dominate the game on the ground and they came out and fed Amon-Ra St. Brown only his second double-digit target game of the season in a massive 52-6 blowout. It was the first game of the season where multiple pass-catchers went over 100 yards. It was only the third game all season where Jared Goff had three or more passing touchdowns and his first game of the year with four. It was only the third game all season where Goff had more than 300 yards through the air. We might not ever know why they chose to keep their feet on the gas against a far inferior opponent; maybe it was washing the taste of a five-pick game out of their mouths, maybe they are fine-tuning their offense as we head towards the end of the regular season, maybe Dan Campbell woke up on the wrong side of the bed and wanted utter devastation. All we know is that the Lions still only attempted 33 passes (29 from Goff before giving way to Hendon Hooker) versus 43 team carries and they were able to run a robust 79 offensive plays from scrimmage, their second highest number of the season and largest since their 55 pass attempt game against the Buccaneers in Week 2. With that in mind, all signs point to the Lions being able to overpower the Colts on the strength of both the offensive and defensive lines, which should allow them to control the tempo of this game.

The standard baseline we have from this backfield held true a week ago, with a near-even split between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in a game the Lions won handily. Considering the Lions are currently instilled at 7.5-point favorites on the road, the likeliest scenario leaves this backfield in another near-even split in snaps, with the opportunity dispersal mostly up to situational variance. That also means that neither back is overly likely to see more than 15-18 opportunities, with the back most likely to end in that range being Montgomery. The Colts have been middle of the pack this season against the run but have improved greatly with a healthy defensive interior, allowing just 4.06 yards per carry in the previous four games since the return of DeForest Buckner (4.62 yards allowed per carry through Week 7). Even so, the Lions have generated the third most yards before contact and have two primary backs that are averaging over 3.2 yards after contact per attempt.

Amon-Ra St. Brown against a team playing Cover-3 at the league’s fourth-highest rate this season (40.0%) seems like a pretty cool setup. St. Brown holds ridiculous metrics against Cover-3 this season, with 0.30 targets per route run, a 27.4% target share, 2.59 yards per route run, a 31.0% first-read target rate, and 0.58 fantasy points per route run. Believe it or not, those numbers are actually down compared to last season. There is no hiding the fact that Sun God is one of the most talented receivers against zone and Cover-3 currently playing in the league, with the biggest problem for his weekly ceiling being what had been poor (for him) weekly volume in an offense that had appeared to be content to control the tempo and flow of games until they completely annihilated the Jaguars a week ago. In other words, if this team holds even league-average pass volume, St. Brown has a ridiculous upside in this matchup. No other pass-catcher on this offense has seen more than a modest 13 targets against Cover-3 this season (St. Brown has 30 already). Sam LaPorta appears set to return from his one-game absence due to a shoulder injury while Jameson Williams always carries immense per-target upside as the field stretcher in this offense. Tim Patrick has worked his way into the primary WR3, although both Kalif Raymond and Allen Robinson should see enough snaps to keep Patrick’s weekly range of outcomes rather lacking.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
19) at

Dolphins (
26.5)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • After failing to score 21 points or more through their first six games, the Dolphins have rattled off four consecutive games of 23 points or more, averaging 27.75 points per game their last four times out.
  • Actually, on that note, these were the last two teams in the league to score 21 points in a game this season.
  • Contrary to the Dolphins, however, the Patriots have managed just 19 points per game while peaking at 22 in Drake Maye’s five full games this year.
  • These two teams played to a 15-10 Dolphins win in Week 5, albeit with both teams now having a different quarterback under center.
  • Dolphins OT Terron Armstead and CB Kendall Fuller missed practice Wednesday.

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Maye has given the Patriots signs of life, but they have still won just one of the five games where he started and finished. That said, they’ve either won or lost by six points or less in each of his previous four starts. Life has been difficult for New England quarterbacks behind an offensive line allowing the highest pressure rate in the league and generating the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt. The difference between Maye and previous starter Jacoby Brissett is that Maye has above-average pocket presence and the ability to extend plays with his legs, which has helped the Patriots sustain more drives and approach games via their preferred methods, which includes a run-balanced attack, modest pace of play, and keeping the game close into the fourth quarter. There is no reason to expect that blueprint to change against the Dolphins in these two teams’ second meeting of the season. The Patriots’ offense has taken on additional transformation in the form of personnel groupings, leaving only wide receiver Kayshon Boutte and tight end Hunter Henry as near every-down skill position players, with a newfound emphasis on 12-personnel.

Rhamondre Stevenson has now averaged 21.86 opportunities and 18.33 DK points per game in the seven games the Patriots either won or lost by six points or less. The problem for him this week is that the Patriots are currently seven-point road dogs against a Dolphins team that is the healthiest they have been since Week 1. Even so, we should expect the Patriots to begin the game with a run-balanced attack that features Stevenson, continuing in that approach for as long as the game remains close. It hasn’t been until games get out of hand that we start seeing Antonio Gibson and JaMycal Hasty more involved this season. The pure rushing matchup on the ground combines to create the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact on the slate, behind only the Raiders against the Broncos.

As was stated above, the only two pass-catchers that consistently see a nearly every-down role are Boutte and Henry, with the newfound emphasis on 12-personnel nuking the snap rate of slot man DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne clearly fighting to regain the trust of his coaching staff, and Ja’Lynn Polk relegated to situational package work. That leaves very few paths to upside from any single pass catcher in this offense, likely restricting our interest to the two players in every-down roles on a standard week (last week was far from standard). The Dolphins rank 10th in passing yards allowed per game at just 199.0, making this an all-around poor spot for offensive production through the air.

How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
23) at

Giants (
17)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Buccaneers rank fourth in pass rate over expectation and third in pass rate over expectation forced on defense, making them a team we are always keeping in mind when they are on the main slate.
  • The Giants have turned to Tommy DeVito under center after benching Daniel Jones for injury guarantee reasons.
  • Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (hamstring) returned to limited sessions Wednesday and is reportedly on track to return to the field against the Giants. WR Jalen McMillan returned to a full practice after missing the previous two games with his own hamstring injury.
  • Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (toe) got in his first full practice of the previous four weeks Wednesday.
  • These two teams rank seventh (Giants) and ninth (Buccaneers) in pass attempted per game, combining to average 69.4 pass attempts per game.
  • The Buccaneers rank fifth in points per game (27.9) and 27th in points allowed per game (26.6).

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is having a true late-career breakout in 2024, on pace to shatter career highs in completion rate, yardage, and touchdowns. He has passed for multiple touchdowns in all but three games, had four games over 300 yards, and has gone over 23 DK points in six of 10 contests. But that all makes sense when looked at in the context of the current state of this Buccaneers team, a team that holds the fourth highest PROE and is scoring the fifth most points per game, but whose defense is allowing the third most yards per game, sixth most points per game, and forcing the third highest pass rate over expectation behind elite nose tackle Vita Vea. In other words, the 2024 version of the Buccaneers is one of the top teams to target with game stacks, in line with the Ravens and Bengals. They are also now expecting wide receiver Mike Evans back from an extended absence after the alpha wide receiver suffered a hamstring injury way back in Week 7. Even so, the typical blueprint of having to out-shootout their opponents could take a significant hit against a Giants team turning to Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

The Tampa Bay backfield has been a true “lead back and change of pace back” situation throughout the season, despite continued reports that the team wanted to get rookie Bucky Irving more involved. Those reports have cooled of late, but the team went through a chunk of the season continuing to sing his praise and talking of intent to get him more involved. Lead back Rachaad White has seen 60% or more of the offensive snaps in six of nine appearances, with one of those games being his first game back from injury. White has also seen six or more targets in five of nine games played, scoring four touchdowns through the air in the four games played largely without Evans and Chris Godwin. That’s the good news. White has also seen only 29 total carries in those four games, failing to see more than 10 carries in any game since Week 1. So, while the snap rate is clearly in White’s favor, volume is significantly lagging other backs on the slate. The Giants allow a robust 2.22 yards before contact per attempt and a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry, which puts them as a bottom-three unit against the run this season.

The shakedown in snap rates for the Tampa pass-catchers likely comes down to how involved Mike Evans can be in his first game in over a month. If he’s ready for a full workload, expect Mike Evans and tight end Cade Otton to operate as near every-down options through the air, likely seeing route participation rates near 100% as well. The likely return of Jalen McMillan introduces further uncertainties as I would expect him to share a role with Rakim Jarrett in most outcomes, likely leaving the bulk of the slot work to Sterling Shepard. While former undrafted free agent Ryan Miller is listed as a tight end on the team’s depth chart, he is effectively a wide receiver, making the team heavily reliant on 11-personnel. The Giants play a ton of single-high defensive alignments (62.8%), against which both Evans and Otton have performed well this season.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Cowboys (
17) at

WFT (
27.5)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Cowboys held a walkthrough on Wednesday after their MNF loss, making CeeDee Lamb’s absence from practice Thursday (after being listed as limited Wednesday) meaningful.
  • Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson also did not practice Thursday, which does not bode well for his chances of playing against the Commanders after he sustained a concussion and is on a short week. I expect him to miss Week 12.
  • Both of the Cowboys All-Pro guards missed practice Thursday as well.
  • Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore has yet to practice after being acquired by the team at the trade deadline.
  • The Commanders are coming off a long week after losing to the Eagles on Thursday of Week 11 while the Cowboys are on a short week after losing to the Texans on Monday.
  • Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks returned to a limited session Thursday as he attempts to return from an extended absence due to a knee injury.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys proved on Monday that they are not going to roll over and fade into oblivion for the remainder of the season with Dak Prescott done for the year. That said, they did not look to be a functioning offense against the Texans in Week 11. They managed to keep the game close in the first half after largely struggling to move the football, with a 64-yard catch-and-run touchdown by special teams ace KaVontae Turpin going down as their only touchdown of the game. They had four turnovers on downs, a fumble that was taken to the house, an interception, two punts, and a missed field goal outside of their three-play touchdown “drive” and a long field goal. Even so, they allowed Cooper Rush to drop back 60 times (five sacks and 55 pass attempts) in a game where CeeDee Lamb briefly departed twice and tight end Jake Ferguson went down with a concussion after one catch. Further clouding their paths to success are the facts that Lamb missed practice Thursday as he tends to multiple injuries while Ferguson appears set to miss Week 12 as he is clearly still symptomatic, as of Thursday. In other words, the Cowboys appear on the brink of trotting out a skill position corps consisting of Jalen Tolbert, Ryan Flournoy, recent acquisition Jonathan Mingo, special teamer KaVontae Turpin, and backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker, pending the availabilities of CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.

The Dallas backfield has been a maddening mix of mediocrity this season, with Rico Dowdle operating as the “lead” back, having played more than 52% of the team’s offensive snaps just once all season, which came in Week 9 when Ezekiel Elliott was held out for disciplinary reasons. Futhermore, fullback Hunter Luepke appears set to return from one missed game after getting in a limited sessions Thursday. Dowdle is a solid bet to see 15-18 opportunities but he has accounted for more than 20 opportunities just once all season (came in a win over the Steelers), making him a shaky fantasy bet in this spot regardless of the plus matchup. Speaking of the matchup, the Commanders rank dead last on the slate in yards allowed before contact per attempt at a robust 2.71, but the Dallas offensive line has underperformed immensely to just 1.51 yards before contact per attempt and could be without both starting All-Pro guards after both Zack Martin and Tyler Smith failed to practice Thursday with combo ankle injuries (ankle plus). Zeke should step into 20-30% of the snaps but has seen just six and four opportunities in the past two games.

There are innumerable uncertainties with this Dallas pass-catching corps this week. The only thing that appears certain at present is that tight end Jake Ferguson appears highly unlikely to suit up after failing to practice in any capacity Thursday, which means he is still experiencing concussion symptoms after almost immediately being ruled out early in the team’s Monday Night Football loss to the Texans. That makes sense considering this was his second concussion of the season. CeeDee Lamb has been battling multiple injuries including a painful AC joint sprain and failed to practice Thursday, Brandin Cooks was designated for return but managed just a limited sessions Thursday, and Jonathan Mingo has been with the team for just two weeks and already wasn’t trusted with a full route tree while with the Panthers. Backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker saw six targets on a 40% snap rate in Week 2 when Ferguson missed with a concussion and 10 targets on a 53% snap rate when Ferguson left Week 11 early. The fact that Schoonmaker is the bare minimum salary on DraftKings is something to keep in mind as the week progresses. Of note here, the Commanders have ceded the fewest pass yards per game since Week 4 at just 177.0 but have filtered the fifth highest rate of targets to the slot, making the status of CeeDee Lamb of the utmost importance to the potential upside of Schoonmaker. Schoonmaker held a 51.2% slot snap rate in the two games without Ferguson this season, accompanied by a lowly 39.8% route participation rate.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 4:05pm Eastern

Broncos (
23.5) at

Raiders (
18)

Over/Under 41.5

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Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • Denver enters this game with a 6-5 record and the inside track to an AFC playoff berth in Bo Nix’s rookie season.
  • Javonte Williams seized back control of the Denver backfield from rookie Audric Estime in Week 11.
  • Nix had a career game last week and has been extremely opponent-sensitive thus far in his career, now facing the Raiders league-worst coverage unit.
  • Rookie sensation Brock Bowers continued his torrid pace that is setting records at the tight-end position with a career-best game against the Dolphins.
  • The Raiders top two RBs left Week 11 with injuries and did not practice Wednesday, leaving an already poor Vegas running game potentially very short-handed.

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Broncos struggled offensively early in the year and then had a spark of three games with good offensive production against the Raiders, Saints, and Panthers in which they averaged 32 points per game. They returned to earth with only 26 total points in their two games against the Ravens and Chiefs before smashing the Falcons in Week 11 by a score of 38-6. Are we sensing a trend here? The Broncos do not have elite physical talent and their scheme is fine, but not great. They are good enough to do very well against weak opponents but must rely on their defense to compete with strong opponents in close, low-scoring games. Luckily for them, this week they travel to face the Raiders 28th-ranked defense that they dropped 34 points on way back in Week 5.

The Las Vegas defense struggles in multiple areas, allowing opponents to have success on the ground against them while also giving up a 69% completion rate. Perhaps the biggest issue for the Raiders is their inability to create negative plays for their opponents, ranking 32nd in turnovers forced and 28th in sacks for the season. Given the Broncos’ results so far this season against lower-tier defenses, including the Raiders, we should expect them to have a good deal of success. Their main offensive weapon is Courtland Sutton, and they involve multiple players at each of their other positions. Nix has shredded the soft matchups this year and we should expect this week to be no different, with head coach Sean Payton continuing to let him sling it. The Broncos’ wide distribution of playing time, targets, and touches is frustrating from a fantasy perspective but has proven to be an asset for Denver in these matchups, as Nix is throwing to the open man rather than feeling a “hierarchy” of who should be getting the ball how much. This formula is less effective against stronger defenses because the Broncos’ skill group is unable to win in many of those matchups and Nix is left dealing with more pressure and tighter windows. This should be a week where he once again has time to throw and is able to dice up the Raiders at all levels of the field. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four weeks and we are likely to see them once again lean on their rookie signal-caller to be the engine of their offense, with their running back committee complementing that passing game with a high efficiency outing for their standards.

How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
19) at

Packers (
25.5)

Over/Under 44.5

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Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The 49ers are in a tough spot with a 1-3 divisional record and sitting at 5-5 as they have dealt with injuries all season long.
  • Christian McCaffrey has returned to his elite workload role in his two games so far but has yet to turn that role into elite production.
  • George Kittle is expected to return to the 49ers lineup after missing Week 11, which will have an impact on the San Francisco passing game and rushing efficiency.
  • Josh Jacobs had a massive workload for the Packers in Week 11, with 23 opportunities, while the Packers ran only 46 offensive snaps. 
  • Green Bay was eliminated in the playoffs last season by the 49ers and is looking to keep pace with the Lions and Vikings to stay in contention in the NFC North.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers’ offense has struggled to find itself this season, in large part due to the revolving door of players that are on the field. Last year, they were blessed with good fortune on the injury front, but this year, every one of their starting skill players has missed multiple games. Brock Purdy has played better than the numbers suggest and is making a lot of plays that critics in the past said he wasn’t capable of. At full strength, this is still a very good offense, but they will have to figure things out quickly because it is not getting much easier anytime soon. George Kittle missed last week with a hamstring injury but has said that he is definitely playing in this game. The timing for the 49ers keeps getting worse as Brock Purdy is now dealing with a shoulder injury that has severely limited his practice reps the first two days this week.

The status of Purdy will obviously have an impact on the game in many ways, but we must not forget that the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have been able to plug and play a lot of backup quarterbacks with relative success due to the quality of offensive system they have and the talent they have at the skill positions. The 49ers offense is built around their running game and much of the passing game is designed to get the ball into the hands of their skill players and let them make plays after the catch. Because of these dynamics, losing an elite (yes, I said it) QB in Purdy is not the death sentence for San Francisco that going to the backup can be for other teams – especially in a one-game sample size. Brandon Allen is the QB2 for the 49ers and would likely draw the start if Purdy is unable to go. It seems likely that the 49ers will leave this one up to game-time to decide as he is important enough that they’ll want to give him every chance to get cleared, and if he is unable to play, then from a strategic standpoint, it wouldn’t make sense to clarify that for the Packers earlier than they have to.

As for how the 49ers will attack Green Bay, what is clear at this point is they will be playing with a backup QB or with Purdy while he deals with a tight/sore/injured shoulder in cold weather. The Green Bay defense has given up some big games to high-profile RBs this season (Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams), and one is likely on tap for Christian McCaffrey in this spot. Expect CMC to see his heaviest workload of the season as the 49ers fight for their season in what is sure to be a hostile Lambeau Field after San Francisco ended the Packers season in January. The likely return of George Kittle should make the run game more effective, as it historically has, and short passes to CMC and Deebo Samuel are likely to be the basis of the passing game at least early on as the 49ers are likely to open with a conservative game plan against a solid Packers pass defense that has PFF’s 8th ranked coverage grade. One positive for the 49ers passing game is the potential absence of Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander, who has not practiced yet this week with a knee injury. The Packers blitz at a low rate (26th in the league), and the 49ers have a solid offensive line, so they should be able to keep relatively clean pockets when they do pass, especially if they are focused on getting the ball out quickly. San Francisco ranks 2nd in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush attempt, and, as noted earlier, the Packers have been susceptible on the ground to teams with strong running games. Expect the 49ers to ride their star RB for 25 to 30 touches and also involve Deebo Samuel more creatively than they have in recent weeks as the basis for their offense.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 4:25pm Eastern

Cards (
24.25) at

Hawks (
22.75)

Over/Under 47.0

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Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • Arizona enters this game off of its Week 11 bye with a 6-4 record and sole possession of the lead in the NFC West.
  • Seattle had a potentially season-saving win over the 49ers in Week 11, its first divisional win of the season.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf have emerged as one of the more dominant receiving duos in the league and will be heavily relied upon as Seattle deals with a porous offensive line.
  • Cardinals tight end Trey McBride has zero receiving touchdowns this season, despite ranking third in the league in targets, receptions, and yards at the position.
  • Arizona’s offense is on a hot streak, averaging 29 points per game over its three games prior to the bye week.

HOW ARIZONA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Cardinals’ offense has been very good this year and “solid” is kind of what comes to mind when evaluating them. They aren’t breaking off huge plays very often (so far) but are pretty consistent in being able to move the ball and stay competitive. Their two losses by significant margins were against the Commanders in a game they did not have McBride and against the Packers in a game in which Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured early. As long as everyone is healthy, this is a unit that is really starting to gel and hit its stride, as they have averaged 29 points per game over their last three outings. Kyler Murray is playing arguably the best football of his career and ranks third in the NFL in QBR while selectively using his legs to inflict damage on opponents. This dual-threat combination is largely responsible for the Cardinals’ current four-game winning streak.

The Cardinals have a pass rate of just over 50% for the season, higher than only the Eagles and Lions. While Philadelphia and Detroit have elite running games and have spent many games salting away leads, Arizona has three big wins and three wins by two points or less – while losing multiple games by 3+ touchdowns. This is to say that Arizona’s balanced attack is by design, not necessity. James Conner is a steady force and one of the more underrated RBs in the league with his ability to pick up short-yardage conversions, break off occasionally longer runs or receptions, run routes out of the backfield, and pick up blitzes. The Cardinals have a nice young complement to him in Trey Benson and they also strategically use Murray’s legs as a weapon. Murray has double-digit fantasy points from rushing alone in three of his last six games. McBride and Harrison headline the Cardinals passing game, and each seems to be coming into their own. Harrison is coming off a great game against a good Jets secondary and McBride is a prime candidate for touchdown regression. The Seahawks blitz at a league-average rate and mix up zone and man coverages. They have been an up-and-down unit this season, with their stronger outings mostly coming against weaker and/or injury-riddled offenses. There is nothing particularly soft or difficult about any area of their defense, meaning Arizona is likely to attack them with their best players in mind rather than picking on a particular area of their opponent. Expect the Cardinals attack to be built around Conner and Murray’s rushing ability, with Conner and McBride featured as short-to-intermediate targets and Harrison’s skill set opened up coming out of the bye week.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 24th 8:20pm Eastern

Eagles (
25.75) at

Rams (
22.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has what looks like an awesome game: the Eagles visit the Rams for a 49-point total game with Philly favored by 3. This should be a fun one. The Eagles have been awesome on both sides of the ball, scoring 25.9 points per game while allowing just 17.9, and while the Rams have been below average on offense so far at 21.3 points per game, they’ve also spent much of the year missing at least one (and often both) of their top wide receivers. Since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both returned in Week 8, the Rams have scored 26 or more points in three of four games (with a flop against the Dolphins mixed in). I do feel like the game total and the spread are giving the Rams a lot of credit. They’ve been more “solid” than “great” on offense even when healthy, their defense has been emphatically below average, while the Eagles defense has been an underrated unit that has done an excellent job all season long. And that’s one way you could choose to play this one, but let’s dig into the teams first before we talk too much about strategy.

Los Angeles

On the Rams side, Kyren Williams continues to have one of the best running back roles in the NFL, playing at least 79% of the snaps every single week. They’ve used two backup running backs and they’ve combined for just 43 opportunities in 10 games while Kyren is averaging 22.2 opportunities per game! For the mathematically inclined, that means Kyren is handling 84% of the backfield workload. Yikes. His workload is monstrous, his red zone role is huge (2nd in the league in red zone rush attempts behind only Joe Mixon, who is amazingly #1 despite only playing 7 ½ games), and the only knock against him is that his passing game role is only okay at about 3 targets per game on average (worth noting: it’s been spikey, with games of 0 but also games of 6 and 7 targets). The downside for Kyren is that Philly has been very good against the run, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry and 100 rushing yards per game. With running backs volume trumps matchup, and while the matchup isn’t great, Kyren’s elite volume still makes him a strong play. There are a lot of strong high-end plays in this game and we’ll talk about that more in detail a bit later, but for now, I’ll just note that I think there’s a decent chance of Kyren getting a little bit lost in the shuffle of all of the other top options. Blake Corum is the RB2 which, as I noted, is barely getting any work. You can play him as a contrarian option in hopes of a fluky touchdown or just in case Kyren gets hurt, but those are about the only scenarios in which we can see him paying off his salary. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The passing game matchup isn’t much better with the Eagles holding opponents to a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt, but there aren’t many better WR1/2 duos in the league (I’m not sure there’s a single one, in fact) than Kupp and Puka. The passing offense really flows through these two, with Kupp averaging 11 targets per game and Puka 8. They’re each rocking a 34% target rate, which is like…yikes. It’s generally really tough to pick between them as they’re both awesome and their roles are so strong. In this game, I have a slight lean toward Kupp because against the elite pass defense of Philly, I just think he tends to run harder to defend routes, and if Philly plays from ahead as Vegas expects, that gives more opportunity for volume to pile up for him (and he tends to need volume more than Puka in order to hit his ceiling games). Both are strong plays despite the tough matchup. With both Kupp and Puka back, the rest of the Rams passing attack takes a backseat. DeMarcus Robinson is playing a ton of snaps but has just a 13.8% target share on the season and that includes games without Puka and Kupp; he’ll get a couple of targets but really at his price, I just view him as a punt play (the kickers he’s priced around are clearly stronger options). You can take MME shots on Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, and Jordan Whittington, all of whom saw a small handful of offensive snaps the last couple of weeks, but these are extremely thin plays. 

At tight end, Davis Allen has taken over the role from Colby Parkinson, and while he was an awful play last week on a main slate, on a Showdown, he’s more attractive. Allen got 0 targets last week as chalk (lol) but had 6 the week before while Parkinson got 1 target last week and scored a touchdown on it, tilting all the Allen players. Neither of these guys are “good” plays but I would rather play Allen at a very cheap $1,600 than any of the Rams wide receivers playing behind Puka and Kupp. Parkinson is still in play as well. Allen is the favorite to lead in snaps and routes, but Parkinson’s per-target upside is higher. I wouldn’t pair them together as they’re directly competing for work. 

Philadelphia

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 25th 8:15pm Eastern

Ravens (
27) at

Chargers (
24)

Over/Under 51.0

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 12 comes to a close with another great looking Showdown as the Ravens visit the Chargers for a 50.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 2. High total, close spread . . looks like fun. The Ravens are the league’s 2nd highest-scoring offense behind only Detroit while the Chargers started slow but have been picking things up lately. The Chargers defense has looked elite but has faced a lot of weak opposition. They’re a good defense, absolutely, but the Ravens are the best team they’ve faced, and they just allowed 27 to the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense is elite against the run but one of the worst in the league against opposing passing games. Fireworks time.

Los Angeles

On the Chargers side, the return of Gus Edwards has taken a little bit of the upside off of J.K. Dobbins’ role. Dobbins has 26 carries in the two games since Edwards returned, against 70 in four games without Edwards. The snaps for Dobbins are still robust, Edwards isn’t on the field a ton, but when he is in the game, he’s getting carries (16 carries the last two games since returning). Either way, the matchup is awful, and at $10k Dobbins is overpriced for it with a relatively modest passing game role. He’s a pay up to be contrarian play who you hope can hit in a bad matchup or can just find his way to a multi-touchdown game via some short yardage attempts. 

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The passing game is where things look tasty for the Chargers. At the start of the year, they were an extremely run-heavy game, holding Justin Herbert to 26, 20, 18, and 27 attempts. But after their Week 5 bye they’ve opened things up, with Herbert dropping back 31 times per game. It’s still not a Bengals-level passing offense, but it’s a significant improvement. The matchup leans to attacking via the air, of course. The big question for LA is if talented rookie Ladd McConkey will play or miss. Ladd is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury – he got in two limited practices this week so I think the odds are that he plays, and that’s how I’ll write this up, but as their WR1 it obviously changes things quite a bit should he sit. Assuming he plays, he’s the clear WR1 with a reasonable 23% target share. What’s also important is that his aDOT earlier in the season was low but it’s up to 10.3 yards now as he’s adding more deeper routes to his tree instead of just hanging out close to the line of scrimmage. His price is reasonable and he’s an awesome-looking play. Quentin Johnston has solidified the WR2 role, emerging from an awful rookie season to look pretty darn good this year. He’s playing the deep threat role with a healthy 13.3 aDOT and has two games over 20 fantasy points. The downside is that he’s only averaging about 4.6 targets per game, which makes him somewhat overpriced at $7,400 despite the awesome matchup. He’s a volatile option who has ceiling but a scary floor. If Ladd is in, I’ll probably have modest exposure here. WR3 Josh Palmer has a very similar profile to Johnston – almost identical aDOT, the main difference is that he’s at about 3.5 targets per game, roughly 1 less than Johnston, but he’s also $5,200. Johnson has scored more touchdowns but we know how volatile those can be. These two guys are really pretty similar plays. Johnson’s a bit better due to the extra target per game he’s seeing, but it’s closer than most projections are going to lead us to think, and the target difference is accounted for by the price difference. He’s just as fragile as Johnston, but given that he’s priced right by the kickers and projects worse than they do, he might come in quite low owned. We’ll see how ownership projections shake out, but as of right now, I’m interested in being underweight on Johnston and overweight on Palmer. Backup WRs Jalen Reagor and Derius Davis are MME punts. 

At tight end, Will Dissly has seen his role grow significantly since Hayden Hurst was left by the wayside. Since Hurst vanished, Dissly has averaged just over 6 targets per game. He doesn’t have as much per-target upside as Johnson and Palmer but his floor is significantly safer. He’s a solid play with a good floor/median outcome but only a decent ceiling. His red zone usage is pretty small (he scored his one touchdown of the season on a target from 29 yards out). He’s a fine play. TE2 Tucker Fisk is more of a blocker but he can TE3 Stone Smartt can be used as MME punts. 

Baltimore

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