Kickoff Saturday, Jan 22nd 4:30pm Eastern

Bengals (
21.75) at

Titans (
25.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
10th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
17th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
14th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
31st DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
26th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
29th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
26th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
29th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • An extremely intriguing game to start off the Divisional weekend, with Cincinnati riding the momentum of their first playoff win in 31 years and Tennessee returning their franchise cornerstone Derrick Henry.
  • Cincinnati survived a mediocre performance last week but will need to turn it up a notch to stay alive.
  • Tennessee is at full strength for the first time in a long time and coming off of a bye week. It will be interesting to see how their chemistry is.
  • The battle for control of the game flow will be the critical piece to how this game plays out.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals controlled their Wild Card win against the Raiders throughout, as the Raiders never had the ball while the game was within one score after the first quarter until their final desperation possession in the fourth quarter. Neither team was very efficient offensively, however, as the Bengals won despite averaging only 3.3 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals defense showed up and caused a couple of turnovers but the Titans offense will present a very different challenge than a Raiders team who snuck in the playoffs and was playing on very short rest. Not to take anything away from the milestone victory for the Bengals, but they will need a much better performance in the Divisional round if they want to keep their season alive.

Tennessee’s defense has been solid this year but not unbeatable. Cincinnati continued to lean more on the pass than the run last week but was not overly effective doing so. This week, against an efficient and full-strength Tennessee offense, the Bengals are going to need to score some points. The best chance of Cincinnati winning this game will be with an aggressive offensive mindset early in the game that leverages the elite playmaking ability of their receiving corps. If the Bengals are able to jump out to a lead, they can get the Titans away from how they want to play and make them more predictable. Ryan Tannehill is very effective when playing off play-action and when he has a lead but has struggled at times when defenses know what is coming. Cincinnati has a solid defense, but they will need help to slow down the Tennessee attack with Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones all in the lineup. I would expect Cincinnati to turn up the heat and try to take control of the game script early rather than playing into Tennessee’s hands with a grind-it-out approach.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee had one of the more impressive regular seasons you will see, as they dealt with a litany of long-term injuries to key players yet still found a way to secure the AFC’s top seed. Now near full strength, we will see if they can come together and get on the same page as they embark on their playoff run. The identity of the Titans lies in their running game, and with the return of Derrick Henry that will certainly continue to be the case. Given the nature of Henry’s foot injury and the short timeline of his return, it would make sense for the Titans to manage his workload on passing downs and use D’Onta Foreman, who played very well in Henry’s absence, for some work on early downs to keep Henry fresh. 

Tennessee runs the ball at the third-highest situation-neutral rate in the league, which we should expect to continue in this matchup against a Cincinnati team that has struggled against running backs at times this year and ranks bottom-10 in PFF grades for run defense and tackling. Now that AJ Brown and Julio Jones are both back healthy, the Titans offense truly becomes dynamic in their ability to attack defenses who stack the box against the run. Brown has shown that he has true “alpha WR” traits and the ability to take over a game when needed, while Jones is still capable of making big plays and can wreak havoc on crossing routes in the intermediate level that are left open by defenses keying on Henry. The Titans have found a way to be successful with whatever was available to them all season, but are now back at full strength and able to play the way in which they designed this team – pounding teams into submission with their running game and hitting them with aggressive daggers down the field to their playmakers. The Titans are a truly imposing team at full strength.


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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Titans are at home and at full strength, while also coming off of a bye. Mike Vrabel showed this year that he is one of the best head coaches in the league, and I would expect the Titans to be sharp mentally and physically for this game, making them the team that is likely to control the game flow. Both of these teams play at a below-average pace of play, and Tennessee’s run tendencies will likely keep this game playing at a slow pace in the early going. Tennessee is also likely to be prepared for and focused on keeping the Bengals from making big plays in the passing game early, meaning that a lower scoring game in the first half, that stays close, is likely. As the game wears on, the Titans experience and advantages should allow them to build a lead and take control.

The above is a “most likely” scenario but by no means a guarantee. Ryan Tannehill is capable of playing ugly games, we don’t know how Derrick Henry’s foot will hold up, we don’t know how the Titans offense will gel after so much time apart, and the Bengals are capable of offensive explosions at any point. While the “most likely” scenario is clear, we must be careful not to get locked into this scenario as gospel when evaluating potential outcomes. We also must consider what each of these scenarios would mean for the “story” it tells for players involved in this game from a DFS perspective, and how much viability our competition will be giving these alternate scenarios.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • CIN’s implied total of 21.75 (as of Wednesday evening) is the second lowest in the Divisional Round
  • TEN was 10-6 ATS in the regular season (tied for third best)
  • CIN was 9-7 ATS (ninth best), and covered their -6 spread vs. LV in the Wild Card round
  • The OVER in TEN home games was 2-7
  • The UNDER in CIN away games was 2-5
  • In CIN’s past six games, the OVER is 2-4
  • In TEN’s past six games, the OVER is 2-4
  • During the regular season, CIN ranked eighth in ppg (27.1)
  • TEN’s defense ranked fifth in ppg allowed (20.8)
  • TEN averaged 66.6 offensive plays per game (sixth most)
  • Their defense ranked seventh in red zone TD% allowed (51.7%)
  • On the season, CIN ranked 12th in pass rate over expectation (0.1%)
  • In their last four games, they rank seventh in PROE (2.3%)
  • TEN was dead last in PROE on the season (-7.9%) and 30th in their last four games (-7.2%)
  • In the red zone, CIN ranked fifth in PROE (5.0%)

Joe Burrow

  • Ranked first in PFF passing grade during regular season
  • First in YPA (8.9) & adjusted completion% (79.4%)
  • Fifth lowest turnover worthy plays (2.4%)
  • Fourth highest pressure-to-sack% (25.9%)
  • TEN ranked 22nd in overall pressure rate & 26th in quick pressure rate
  • Wild Card vs. LV: 24/34:244:2
  • Eighth in DK ppg (20.46)
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($6,600) three times in 17 games: 30.64 @ BAL in Week 7 // 37.84 vs. KC in Week 17 // 41.1 vs. BAL in Week 16
  • Those stat lines: 23/38:416:3:1 // 30/39:446:4 // 37/46:525:4
  • Averaged 23.54 DK ppg at home vs. 18.63 on the road
  • TEN ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.9)
  • Murderers’ row of opposing QBs in their last eight games (in reverse chronological order): Davis Mills // Tua Tagovailoa // Jimmy Garoppolo // Ben Roethlisberger // Trevor Lawrence // Mac Jones // Tyrod Taylor // Taysom Hill/Trevor Siemian
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Russell Wilson 26.32 // Davis Mills 30.24 // Josh Allen 32.72 // Kyler Murray 34.56
  • Their stat lines: Russ 22/31:343:2 // Mills 23/33:301:3 // Allen 35/47:353:3:1 // Murray 21/32:289:4:1 (plus rushing TD)

Ja’Marr Chase

  • Among qualified WRs, ranked ninth in total air yards, third in YAC, third in TDs, ninth in ADoT, 10th in air yard market share, 22nd in target share, and 15th in WOPR
  • Ranked fifth in DK ppg (18.25)
  • Wild Card stat line: 9/12:116 (plus three rushes for 23 yards)
  • That makes three straight full usage games of double digit targets (10, 12, 12)
  • Totaled just three double digit games the rest of the season
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($7,100) three times in 18 games: 30.9 vs. GB in Week 5 // 37.1 @ BAL in Week 7 // 58.6 vs. KC in Week 17
  • Those stat lines: 6/10:159:1 // 8/10:201:1 // 11/12:266:3
  • Averaged 22.78 DK ppg at home vs. 14.84 on the road

Tee Higgins

  • Ranked 20th in total air yards, 23rd in TDs, 13th in ADoT, 14th in air yard market share, 20th in target share, and 20th in WOPR
  • 18th in DK ppg (14.81)
  • Wild Card stat line: 1/4:10
  • Target counts in final five regular season games: 14 // 7 // 3 // 13 // 5
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($5,700) three times in 15 games: 26.4 vs. PIT in Week 12 // 31.8 vs. LAC in Week 13 // 46.4 vs. BAL in Week 16
  • Those stat lines: 6/8:114:1 // 9/14:138:1 // 12/13:194:2
  • Averaged 19.44 DK ppg at home vs. 9.85 on the road

Tyler Boyd

  • Ranked 16th in YAC and fifth in RACR (ratio of receiving yards to air yards)
  • Wild Card stat line: 4/5:26:1
  • Target counts in final five regular season games: 7 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 6
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($4,800) three times in 17 games: 19.74 @ NYJ in Week 8 // 20.6 @ DEN in Week 15 // 23.8 vs. JAX in Week 4
  • Those stat lines: 5/8:69:1 // 5/6:96:1 // 9/11:118
  • Averaged 10.96 DK ppg at home vs. 12.88 on the road

TEN vs. WRs

  • TEN ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to WRs (41.19)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: DeAndre Hopkins 26.3 // Michael Pittman 30.6 // Deebo Samuel 31.1 // Tyler Lockett 34.8 // Danny Amendola 35.3
  • Their stat lines: Hopkins 6/8:83:2 // Pittman 10/15:86:2 // Samuel 9/11:159 (plus five rushes for 32 yards) // Lockett 4/5:100:2 // Amendola 7/8:113:2

CJ Uzomah

  • Among qualified TEs, ranked 11th in air yards, 10th in TDs, and first in RACR
  • Wild Card stat line: 6/6:64:1
  • Target counts in final five regular season games: 6 // 6 // 4 // 7 // 6
  • Averaged 9.17 DK ppg
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($3,400) three times in 16 games: 18.4 vs. LV in Wild Card // 24.1 @ BAL in Week 7 // 26.5 vs. JAX in Week 4
  • Those stat lines: 6/6:64:1 // 3/3:91:2 // 5/6:95:2

TEN vs. TEs

  • TEN ranked fifth in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.71)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Tyler Higbee 10.1 // Dan Arnold 11.4 // Travis Kelce 13.5
  • Their stat lines: Higbee 5/10:51 // Arnold 6/8:64 // Kelce 7/12:65

Joe Mixon

  • Ranked 10th in PPF rushing grade
  • Among all RBs, ranked sixth in snap share and sixth in touches per game
  • 17.68 DK ppg ranked seventh
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($6,600) five times in 17 games: 27.3 @ LV in Week 11 // 28 vs. MIN in Week 1 // 28 vs. CLE in Week 9 // 31.5 vs. BAL in Week 16 // 35.3 vs. PIT in Week 12
  • Those stat lines: 30/123:2 // 29/127:1 & 4/4:23 // 13/64:2 & 5/5:46 // 18/65:1 & 6/6:70:1 // 28/165:2 & 4:4/-2
  • Averaged 19.34 DK ppg at home vs. 16.59 on the road
  • Back-ups Samaje Perine & Chris Evans received one rushing attempt each (and zero targets) during the Wild Card game

TEN vs. RBs

  • TEN ranked first in DK ppg allowed to RBs (18.38)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Mark Ingram 20.8 // Jonathan Taylor 21.2 // James Robinson 24.7
  • Their stat lines: Ingram 14/47:1 & 4/7:61 // Taylor 16/70:1 & 3/4:52 // Robinson 18/149:1
  • Opposing RBs in their last eight games: David Johnson/Rex Burkhead // Myles Gaskin/Phillip Lindsay/Duke Johnson // Jeff Wilson // Najee Harris // James Robinson // Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson // Johnson/Burkhead

CIN D/ST

  • 2.4 sacks per game
  • 1.2 turnovers per game
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($2,700) four times in 18 games: 11 @ CLE in Week 18 // 12 @ PIT in Week 3 // 12 @ LV in Week 11 // 19 vs. PIT in Week 12
  • Averaged 5 DK ppg at home vs. 8.75 on the road
  • Opposing D/STs vs. TEN average 6.41 DK ppg
  • Notable opposing D/ST scores: HOU 14 // NE 14 // ARI 16 // PIT 16

Ryan Tannehill

  • Ranked ninth in PFF passing grade
  • 21st in YPA (lowest as a Titan) and 25th in ADoT
  • Lowest ypg as a Titan (219.6)
  • Lowest TD% since rookie year (4%)
  • Highest INT% as a Titan (2.6%)
  • Lowest Adjusted Yards Gained per Attempt as a Titan, rating, and QBR
  • 16.84 DK ppg ranked 12th
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($5,800) three times in 17 games: 23.2 @ IND in Week 8 // 23.48 vs. IND in Week 3 // 27.28 @ HOU in Week 18
  • Those stat lines: 23/33:265:3:2 & 2/26 // 18/27:197:3:2 & 5/56 // 23/32:287:4
  • CIN ranked 11th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.11)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Lamar Jackson 23.08 // Josh Johnson 23.16 // Aaron Rodgers 23.76 // Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Justin Herbert 29.28 // Michael White 31.1
  • Their stat lines: Jackson 15/31:257:1 & 12/88 // Johnson 28/40:304:2:1 & 5/10 // Rodgers 27/39:344:2:1 // Cousins 36/49:351:2 // Herbert 26/35:317:3:1 // White 37/45:405:3:2

AJ Brown

  • Among qualified WRs, Brown ranked 23rd in total air yards, 17th in ADoT, second in air yard market share, seventh in target share, and third in WOPR
  • Averaging 14.61 DK ppg
  • Target counts in his last three games: 16 // 5 // 6
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($6,200) three times in 13 games: 30.3 vs. KC in Week 7 // 34.5 @ IND in Week 8 // 34.5 vs. SF in Week 16
  • Those stat lines: 8/9:133:1 // 10/11:155:1 // 11/16:145:1

Julio Jones

  • Target counts in his first four games as a Titan: 6 // 8 // 4 // 5
  • Stat lines: 3/6:29 // 6/8:128 // 3/4:47 // 3/5:59
  • Target counts in his last four games: 6 // 1 // 1 // 9
  • Stat lines: 4/6:33 // 0/1:0 // 1/1:7 // 5/9:58:1
  • Averaging 9.27 DK ppg
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($4,700) once in nine games: 21.8 @ SEA in Week 2
  • Stat line: 6/8:128

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

  • Target counts in last five games: 3 // 7 // 3 // 2 // 5
  • Stat lines: 3/3:31 // 4/7:32 // 2/3:38 // 0/2:0 // 4/5:78:1
  • Averaging 8.46 DK ppg
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($3,800) twice in 13 games: 17.8 @ HOU in Week 18 // 20.7 vs. HOU in Week 11
  • Those stat lines: 4/5:78:1 // 7/8:107

TEN Back-Up WRs

  • Only Chester Rogers has seen meaningful targets lately among back-up WRs
  • Targets in last five games: 1 // 4 // 1 // 2 // 2
  • Stat lines: 1/1:13 // 4/4:30 // 1/1:3 // 2/2:13 // 2/2:4
  • Yet to score 12 DK pts this season

CIN vs. WRs

  • CIN ranked 17th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.97)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Keenan Allen 22.4 // Adam Thielen 30.2 // Davante Adams 40.6
  • Their stat lines: Allen 5/8:34:2 // Thielen 9/10:92:2 // Adams 11/16:206:1

Anthony Firkser

  • Among qualified TEs, ranked 24th in ADoT and 14th in RACR
  • Target counts in last five games: 5 // 2 // 1 // 3 // 4
  • Stat lines: 4/5:34 // 2/2:19 // 1/1:13 // 3/3:24:1 // 4/4:56:1
  • Averaged 5.34 DK ppg in 15 games
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($3,100) twice in 15 games: 13.6 vs. HOU in Week 11 // 15.6 @ HOU in Week 18
  • Those stat lines: 5/7:26 (recovered a fumble for TD) // 4/4:56:1

Geoff Swaim

  • Target counts in last five games: 4 // 2 // 3 // 3 // 1
  • Stat lines: 3/4:45 // 1/2:5 // 3/3:10 // 3/3:9:1 // 1/1:2
  • Averaged 5.68 DK ppg in 12 games
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($2,800) twice in 12 games: 12.3 @ IND in Week 8 // 12.9 @ LAR in Week 9
  • Those stat lines: 4/5:23:1 // 4/4:29:1

CIN vs. TEs

  • CIN ranked 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.83)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Travis Kelce 13.4 // Pat Freiermuth 14 // Darren Waller 14.6 // TJ Hockenson 15.4 // Waller 21.6 // Mark Andrews 29.5 // George Kittle 37.1
  • Their stat lines: Kelce 5/7:25:1 // Freiermuth 4/4:40:1 // Waller 7/12:76 // Hockenson 8/11:74 // Waller 7/8:116 // Andrews 8/10:125:1 // Kittle 13/15:151:1

Derrick Henry

  • Hasn’t played since Week 8
  • Progressing well in return from injury and expected to be activated to play Saturday
  • In those first eight weeks, among all RBs, Henry ranked first in total rushes, first in rush share, third in total goal line rushes, third in goal line share, and third in RBOPR
  • His 26 DK ppg were 3.5 more pts than second best Austin Ekeler
  • Target counts in first eight weeks: 4 // 6 // 3 // 2 // 0 // 3 // 2 // 0
  • Stat lines: 17/58 & 3/4:19 // 35/182:3 & 6/6:55 // 28/113:0 & 3/3:31 // 33/157:1 & 2/2:20 // 29/130:3 // 20/143:3 & 2/3:13 // 29/86:0 & 2/2:16 // 28/68:0
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($7,500) three times in eight games: 34 @ JAX in Week 5 // 38.6 vs. BUF in Week 6 // 50.7 @ SEA in Week 2
  • Those stat lines: 29/130:3 // 20/143:3 & 2/3:13 // 35/182:3 & 6/6:55

TEN Back-up RBs

  • Snaps from Weeks 9-18: D’Onta Foreman 230 // Dontrell Hilliard 198
  • Targets: Hilliard 26 (3.2 per game on the season) // Foreman 11 (1.2 per game on the season)
  • Touches: Foreman 142 (15.8 per game on the season) // Hilliard 75 (9.4 per game on the season)
  • Foreman has scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($5,400) once in eight games: 22.2 vs. MIA in Week 17
  • His stat line: 26/132:1
  • Hilliard has scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($4,300) once in 6 games: 22.3 @ NE in Week 12
  • His stat line: 12/131:1 & 1/2:2

CIN vs. RBs

  • CIN ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.29)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Darrel Williams 25.7 // Najee Harris 31.2 // Michael Carter 32.2 // Nick Chubb 33.3
  • Their stat lines: Williams 14/88:2 & 3/3:19 // Harris 14/40:0 & 14/19:102 // Carter 15/77:1 & 9/14:95 // Chubb 14/137:2 & 2/2:26

TEN D/ST

  • 2.5 sacks per game
  • 1.3 turnovers per game
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($2,900) five times in 17 games: 13 @ JAX in Week 5 // 15 vs. MIA in Week 17 // 16 @ LAR in Week 9 // 19 vs. KC in Week 7 // 21 vs. JAX in Week 14
  • Averaged 8.11 DK ppg at home vs. 6 on the road
  • Opposing D/STs vs. CIN average 5.72 DK ppg
  • Notable opposing D/ST scores: CLE 18 // CHI 19 // LAC 20