Rams (

22.5) at
Bucs (

25.5)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Whereas the second Sunday game pits two of the top three offenses in pass rates, this one pits two of the top three offenses in pace of play, as the Rams check in third in the league in situation-neutral pace of play while the Bucs ranked second this season.
• Left tackle Andrew Whitworth and safety Taylor Rapp have yet to practice this week for the Rams.
• Tampa Bay’s journey to the Super Bowl will be far different this year when compared to last, when their health stayed relatively consistent throughout the post season; this year, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are out, and no fewer than five starters have yet to practice this week, including wide receivers Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman, running back Ronald Jones II, and two All-Pro offensive linemen in Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs.
• No COVID concerns for either team as of Thursday.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Cam Akers szn has officially arrived. The Wildcard Round marked the first time in his career that Akers ran as the lead back for an NFL team, which is quite remarkable considering he tore his Achilles before the season. Even more remarkable is the fact that his coaching and training staff felt he was healthy enough to see 32 offensive snaps in a blowout win, indicating that they were prioritizing getting him NFL game action. As in, Akers saw 19 running back opportunities in a game the Rams controlled throughout last week, and he did so six months removed from a torn Achilles. Let’s take a moment to appreciate how insane that is. Okay, that was fun. Back to the write-up. The Rams have shown to be one of the more adaptable offensive units in the league this year, capable of both in-game adjustments and altered game plans. Why is that important to us this week? Well, their opponent in the Divisional Round faced the fewest rushes against of any team this season and should be considered one of the more pass-funnel defensive units in the league. This should serve to filter additional volume to the passing game for as long as this game remains competitive (spoiler alert, it should be competitive throughout).

Darrell Henderson, Jr., who has lost his hold on this backfield over the second half of the season, remains on IR, meaning backfield duties should be split between incumbent starter Sony Michel and the electric Cam Akers moving forward. The dynamic abilities of Akers on the ground (and through the air) give this offense exactly what they have been searching for, a running back with plus vision and plus burst, capable of hitting gaps in a heavy zone-blocking run scheme. The matchup against the Bucs tilts expected volume to the air, but I wouldn’t expect the Rams to completely ignore the run game here, meaning both Akers and Michel should see a minimum of 10-12 rushes with pass game work mixed in. It bears mention that the Rams targeted the running back position at a bottom-five rate this season (13%). Back to the matchup – the pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.18 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bucs defense that faced the fewest rush attempts against and filtered the second-most targets to opposing backfields (144). This makes the low running back target rates shown from the Rams notable.

Pass-catcher snap rates for the Rams depend heavily on game flow and subsequent rush rates, as Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the only two pass-catchers to play almost every offensive snap on a consistent basis since the team’s Week 11 bye (Higbee missed two games in that span). The snap rates of Van Jefferson, Odell Beckham, Jr., and the rotational tight ends have varied depending on game flow and subsequent rush rates, which plays a large role in our attempt to dissect how they are likeliest to attack here. As in, the Rams have exhibited a bias towards heavier sets and increased rush rates in games they control and heavy 11-personnel (3-wide sets) in games they are playing from behind. The big picture here is I don’t expect those tendencies to change much here, even in a game against the Buccaneers. Something that has gone largely unnoticed or not talked about is the fact that the Bucs have ceded a very NFL-average 4.4 yards per carry this season, a far cry from their top marks last season.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers were the league’s most aerial-aggressive offense this season in about any metric you look at, leading the league in situation-neutral pass rate, overall pass rate, pass rates over the second half of the season, pass rate when leading. They also ran the league’s fastest offense in the first half of games this season, finishing the year with the second-fastest situation-neutral pace of play. When we combine those offensive tendencies with a defense that faced the fewest rushing against of any team this season, we start to see how the Buccaneers were involved in so many offensive shootouts this year. They quite literally invite it through their game planning and execution. Now consider the fact that lead back Leonard Fournette has been out for a month, number two back Ronald Jones II has yet to practice this week, and the Rams boast a top-five run defense, and we’re left with yet another game where the Bucs should lean heavily into the passing game.

Leonard Fournette was seen participating in practice on Thursday, which would mark his first practice action since injuring his hamstring in Week 15. Head coach Bruce Arians was quoted as saying the plan for Fournette was to take a “wait and see” approach, so his return to practice on Thursday bodes well for his chances to return in time for Sunday’s game. Keep an eye on the Friday practice report and subsequent Saturday IR-return deadline. As things currently stand, I tentatively expect Fournette to make his return to the starting lineup this week. The same cannot be said for fellow back Ronald Jones II, who missed practice both days this week (as of Thursday). The backfield split is likely to be most influenced by health, and I would tentatively expect Fournette to not be charged with his same featured role should he return in time for the Divisional clash with the Rams. As in, I expect Fournette to be joined by both Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard (who returned last week from a four-game absence of his own) as regular contributors to the offense here. That leaves little to like from a fantasy expectation perspective when you also consider the matchup and Tampa Bay play-calling tendencies. Should both Fournette and Jones miss once more, expect a relatively even split in backfield work between Bernard and Vaughn, with Gio the back more likely to be utilized heavier in a negative-to-neutral game script (when the Bucs are trailing and in close games). The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.26 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Los Angeles defense that allowed only 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields during the regular season.

Things don’t get any easier for the Bucs through the air, at least from the standpoint of their expected level of health. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown remain out (or no longer with the team), while Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman have yet to practice this week with hamstring and hip ailments, respectively. That leaves Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, and special teams ace Jaelon Darden as the only remaining healthy wide receivers currently on the active roster, which could serve to increase the already high 12-personnel packages from the Bucs as the team fights to get healthy pass-catchers onto the field. The final major discussion point surrounding this pass offense is from the other side of the ball, as I don’t expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow this week. Since Tom Brady is a veteran quarterback that has shown a historical propensity to target the players he either has a connection with or trusts, and since neither Tyler Johnson nor Scotty Miller has seen more than just seven targets in any game this year, we should expect the vast majority of the passing volume to flow through Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate (OJ Howard has seen his role morph into a primary-blocker role), and the running backs.

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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Although it arguably isn’t the most likely scenario as far as game environment and game flow are concerned, the Rams bumped their pass rates all the way up to 70% when trailing this season. Either way, we should expect both of these teams to primarily turn to the air as they fight their way towards the NFC Championship game, particularly considering the matchup for the Rams and the offensive play calling tendencies exhibited by the Bucs throughout the season. This does a couple of things for us that help to raise the overall game environment here: (1) it generates a high likelihood of additional offensive plays run from scrimmage, (2) it reduces the variance associated with pass volume by providing more “outs,” or paths to each team passing, and (3) it raises the already sky-high floors and ceilings of the individual pass-catchers from this game, who already play on extremely concentrated pass offenses. The actual likeliest game flow almost doesn’t matter to us from a DFS perspective at that point, but the likeliest scenario involves a back-and-forth affair with neither team pulling away from the other – another boon to this game environment. Expect there to be passing, a lot of passing.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::