Divisional Matchups

Kickoff Saturday, Jan 22nd 4:30pm Eastern

Bengals (
21.75) at

Titans (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • An extremely intriguing game to start off the Divisional weekend, with Cincinnati riding the momentum of their first playoff win in 31 years and Tennessee returning their franchise cornerstone Derrick Henry.
  • Cincinnati survived a mediocre performance last week but will need to turn it up a notch to stay alive.
  • Tennessee is at full strength for the first time in a long time and coming off of a bye week. It will be interesting to see how their chemistry is.
  • The battle for control of the game flow will be the critical piece to how this game plays out.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals controlled their Wild Card win against the Raiders throughout, as the Raiders never had the ball while the game was within one score after the first quarter until their final desperation possession in the fourth quarter. Neither team was very efficient offensively, however, as the Bengals won despite averaging only 3.3 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals defense showed up and caused a couple of turnovers but the Titans offense will present a very different challenge than a Raiders team who snuck in the playoffs and was playing on very short rest. Not to take anything away from the milestone victory for the Bengals, but they will need a much better performance in the Divisional round if they want to keep their season alive.

Tennessee’s defense has been solid this year but not unbeatable. Cincinnati continued to lean more on the pass than the run last week but was not overly effective doing so. This week, against an efficient and full-strength Tennessee offense, the Bengals are going to need to score some points. The best chance of Cincinnati winning this game will be with an aggressive offensive mindset early in the game that leverages the elite playmaking ability of their receiving corps. If the Bengals are able to jump out to a lead, they can get the Titans away from how they want to play and make them more predictable. Ryan Tannehill is very effective when playing off play-action and when he has a lead but has struggled at times when defenses know what is coming. Cincinnati has a solid defense, but they will need help to slow down the Tennessee attack with Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones all in the lineup. I would expect Cincinnati to turn up the heat and try to take control of the game script early rather than playing into Tennessee’s hands with a grind-it-out approach.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee had one of the more impressive regular seasons you will see, as they dealt with a litany of long-term injuries to key players yet still found a way to secure the AFC’s top seed. Now near full strength, we will see if they can come together and get on the same page as they embark on their playoff run. The identity of the Titans lies in their running game, and with the return of Derrick Henry that will certainly continue to be the case. Given the nature of Henry’s foot injury and the short timeline of his return, it would make sense for the Titans to manage his workload on passing downs and use D’Onta Foreman, who played very well in Henry’s absence, for some work on early downs to keep Henry fresh. 

Tennessee runs the ball at the third-highest situation-neutral rate in the league, which we should expect to continue in this matchup against a Cincinnati team that has struggled against running backs at times this year and ranks bottom-10 in PFF grades for run defense and tackling. Now that AJ Brown and Julio Jones are both back healthy, the Titans offense truly becomes dynamic in their ability to attack defenses who stack the box against the run. Brown has shown that he has true “alpha WR” traits and the ability to take over a game when needed, while Jones is still capable of making big plays and can wreak havoc on crossing routes in the intermediate level that are left open by defenses keying on Henry. The Titans have found a way to be successful with whatever was available to them all season, but are now back at full strength and able to play the way in which they designed this team – pounding teams into submission with their running game and hitting them with aggressive daggers down the field to their playmakers. The Titans are a truly imposing team at full strength.

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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Titans are at home and at full strength, while also coming off of a bye. Mike Vrabel showed this year that he is one of the best head coaches in the league, and I would expect the Titans to be sharp mentally and physically for this game, making them the team that is likely to control the game flow. Both of these teams play at a below-average pace of play, and Tennessee’s run tendencies will likely keep this game playing at a slow pace in the early going. Tennessee is also likely to be prepared for and focused on keeping the Bengals from making big plays in the passing game early, meaning that a lower scoring game in the first half, that stays close, is likely. As the game wears on, the Titans experience and advantages should allow them to build a lead and take control.

The above is a “most likely” scenario but by no means a guarantee. Ryan Tannehill is capable of playing ugly games, we don’t know how Derrick Henry’s foot will hold up, we don’t know how the Titans offense will gel after so much time apart, and the Bengals are capable of offensive explosions at any point. While the “most likely” scenario is clear, we must be careful not to get locked into this scenario as gospel when evaluating potential outcomes. We also must consider what each of these scenarios would mean for the “story” it tells for players involved in this game from a DFS perspective, and how much viability our competition will be giving these alternate scenarios.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • CIN’s implied total of 21.75 (as of Wednesday evening) is the second lowest in the Divisional Round
  • TEN was 10-6 ATS in the regular season (tied for third best)
  • CIN was 9-7 ATS (ninth best), and covered their -6 spread vs. LV in the Wild Card round
  • The OVER in TEN home games was 2-7
  • The UNDER in CIN away games was 2-5
  • In CIN’s past six games, the OVER is 2-4
  • In TEN’s past six games, the OVER is 2-4
  • During the regular season, CIN ranked eighth in ppg (27.1)
  • TEN’s defense ranked fifth in ppg allowed (20.8)
  • TEN averaged 66.6 offensive plays per game (sixth most)
  • Their defense ranked seventh in red zone TD% allowed (51.7%)
  • On the season, CIN ranked 12th in pass rate over expectation (0.1%)
  • In their last four games, they rank seventh in PROE (2.3%)
  • TEN was dead last in PROE on the season (-7.9%) and 30th in their last four games (-7.2%)
  • In the red zone, CIN ranked fifth in PROE (5.0%)

Joe Burrow

  • Ranked first in PFF passing grade during regular season
  • First in YPA (8.9) & adjusted completion% (79.4%)
  • Fifth lowest turnover worthy plays (2.4%)
  • Fourth highest pressure-to-sack% (25.9%)
  • TEN ranked 22nd in overall pressure rate & 26th in quick pressure rate
  • Wild Card vs. LV: 24/34:244:2
  • Eighth in DK ppg (20.46)
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($6,600) three times in 17 games: 30.64 @ BAL in Week 7 // 37.84 vs. KC in Week 17 // 41.1 vs. BAL in Week 16
  • Those stat lines: 23/38:416:3:1 // 30/39:446:4 // 37/46:525:4
  • Averaged 23.54 DK ppg at home vs. 18.63 on the road
  • TEN ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.9)
  • Murderers’ row of opposing QBs in their last eight games (in reverse chronological order): Davis Mills // Tua Tagovailoa // Jimmy Garoppolo // Ben Roethlisberger // Trevor Lawrence // Mac Jones // Tyrod Taylor // Taysom Hill/Trevor Siemian
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Russell Wilson 26.32 // Davis Mills 30.24 // Josh Allen 32.72 // Kyler Murray 34.56
  • Their stat lines: Russ 22/31:343:2 // Mills 23/33:301:3 // Allen 35/47:353:3:1 // Murray 21/32:289:4:1 (plus rushing TD)

Ja’Marr Chase

  • Among qualified WRs, ranked ninth in total air yards, third in YAC, third in TDs, ninth in ADoT, 10th in air yard market share, 22nd in target share, and 15th in WOPR
  • Ranked fifth in DK ppg (18.25)
  • Wild Card stat line: 9/12:116 (plus three rushes for 23 yards)
  • That makes three straight full usage games of double digit targets (10, 12, 12)
  • Totaled just three double digit games the rest of the season
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($7,100) three times in 18 games: 30.9 vs. GB in Week 5 // 37.1 @ BAL in Week 7 // 58.6 vs. KC in Week 17
  • Those stat lines: 6/10:159:1 // 8/10:201:1 // 11/12:266:3
  • Averaged 22.78 DK ppg at home vs. 14.84 on the road

Tee Higgins

  • Ranked 20th in total air yards, 23rd in TDs, 13th in ADoT, 14th in air yard market share, 20th in target share, and 20th in WOPR
  • 18th in DK ppg (14.81)
  • Wild Card stat line: 1/4:10
  • Target counts in final five regular season games: 14 // 7 // 3 // 13 // 5
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($5,700) three times in 15 games: 26.4 vs. PIT in Week 12 // 31.8 vs. LAC in Week 13 // 46.4 vs. BAL in Week 16
  • Those stat lines: 6/8:114:1 // 9/14:138:1 // 12/13:194:2
  • Averaged 19.44 DK ppg at home vs. 9.85 on the road

Tyler Boyd

  • Ranked 16th in YAC and fifth in RACR (ratio of receiving yards to air yards)
  • Wild Card stat line: 4/5:26:1
  • Target counts in final five regular season games: 7 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 6
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($4,800) three times in 17 games: 19.74 @ NYJ in Week 8 // 20.6 @ DEN in Week 15 // 23.8 vs. JAX in Week 4
  • Those stat lines: 5/8:69:1 // 5/6:96:1 // 9/11:118
  • Averaged 10.96 DK ppg at home vs. 12.88 on the road

TEN vs. WRs

  • TEN ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to WRs (41.19)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: DeAndre Hopkins 26.3 // Michael Pittman 30.6 // Deebo Samuel 31.1 // Tyler Lockett 34.8 // Danny Amendola 35.3
  • Their stat lines: Hopkins 6/8:83:2 // Pittman 10/15:86:2 // Samuel 9/11:159 (plus five rushes for 32 yards) // Lockett 4/5:100:2 // Amendola 7/8:113:2

CJ Uzomah

  • Among qualified TEs, ranked 11th in air yards, 10th in TDs, and first in RACR
  • Wild Card stat line: 6/6:64:1
  • Target counts in final five regular season games: 6 // 6 // 4 // 7 // 6
  • Averaged 9.17 DK ppg
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($3,400) three times in 16 games: 18.4 vs. LV in Wild Card // 24.1 @ BAL in Week 7 // 26.5 vs. JAX in Week 4
  • Those stat lines: 6/6:64:1 // 3/3:91:2 // 5/6:95:2

TEN vs. TEs

  • TEN ranked fifth in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.71)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Tyler Higbee 10.1 // Dan Arnold 11.4 // Travis Kelce 13.5
  • Their stat lines: Higbee 5/10:51 // Arnold 6/8:64 // Kelce 7/12:65

Joe Mixon

  • Ranked 10th in PPF rushing grade
  • Among all RBs, ranked sixth in snap share and sixth in touches per game
  • 17.68 DK ppg ranked seventh
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($6,600) five times in 17 games: 27.3 @ LV in Week 11 // 28 vs. MIN in Week 1 // 28 vs. CLE in Week 9 // 31.5 vs. BAL in Week 16 // 35.3 vs. PIT in Week 12
  • Those stat lines: 30/123:2 // 29/127:1 & 4/4:23 // 13/64:2 & 5/5:46 // 18/65:1 & 6/6:70:1 // 28/165:2 & 4:4/-2
  • Averaged 19.34 DK ppg at home vs. 16.59 on the road
  • Back-ups Samaje Perine & Chris Evans received one rushing attempt each (and zero targets) during the Wild Card game

TEN vs. RBs

  • TEN ranked first in DK ppg allowed to RBs (18.38)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Mark Ingram 20.8 // Jonathan Taylor 21.2 // James Robinson 24.7
  • Their stat lines: Ingram 14/47:1 & 4/7:61 // Taylor 16/70:1 & 3/4:52 // Robinson 18/149:1
  • Opposing RBs in their last eight games: David Johnson/Rex Burkhead // Myles Gaskin/Phillip Lindsay/Duke Johnson // Jeff Wilson // Najee Harris // James Robinson // Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson // Johnson/Burkhead


  • 2.4 sacks per game
  • 1.2 turnovers per game
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($2,700) four times in 18 games: 11 @ CLE in Week 18 // 12 @ PIT in Week 3 // 12 @ LV in Week 11 // 19 vs. PIT in Week 12
  • Averaged 5 DK ppg at home vs. 8.75 on the road
  • Opposing D/STs vs. TEN average 6.41 DK ppg
  • Notable opposing D/ST scores: HOU 14 // NE 14 // ARI 16 // PIT 16

Ryan Tannehill

  • Ranked ninth in PFF passing grade
  • 21st in YPA (lowest as a Titan) and 25th in ADoT
  • Lowest ypg as a Titan (219.6)
  • Lowest TD% since rookie year (4%)
  • Highest INT% as a Titan (2.6%)
  • Lowest Adjusted Yards Gained per Attempt as a Titan, rating, and QBR
  • 16.84 DK ppg ranked 12th
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($5,800) three times in 17 games: 23.2 @ IND in Week 8 // 23.48 vs. IND in Week 3 // 27.28 @ HOU in Week 18
  • Those stat lines: 23/33:265:3:2 & 2/26 // 18/27:197:3:2 & 5/56 // 23/32:287:4
  • CIN ranked 11th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.11)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Lamar Jackson 23.08 // Josh Johnson 23.16 // Aaron Rodgers 23.76 // Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Justin Herbert 29.28 // Michael White 31.1
  • Their stat lines: Jackson 15/31:257:1 & 12/88 // Johnson 28/40:304:2:1 & 5/10 // Rodgers 27/39:344:2:1 // Cousins 36/49:351:2 // Herbert 26/35:317:3:1 // White 37/45:405:3:2

AJ Brown

  • Among qualified WRs, Brown ranked 23rd in total air yards, 17th in ADoT, second in air yard market share, seventh in target share, and third in WOPR
  • Averaging 14.61 DK ppg
  • Target counts in his last three games: 16 // 5 // 6
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($6,200) three times in 13 games: 30.3 vs. KC in Week 7 // 34.5 @ IND in Week 8 // 34.5 vs. SF in Week 16
  • Those stat lines: 8/9:133:1 // 10/11:155:1 // 11/16:145:1

Julio Jones

  • Target counts in his first four games as a Titan: 6 // 8 // 4 // 5
  • Stat lines: 3/6:29 // 6/8:128 // 3/4:47 // 3/5:59
  • Target counts in his last four games: 6 // 1 // 1 // 9
  • Stat lines: 4/6:33 // 0/1:0 // 1/1:7 // 5/9:58:1
  • Averaging 9.27 DK ppg
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($4,700) once in nine games: 21.8 @ SEA in Week 2
  • Stat line: 6/8:128

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

  • Target counts in last five games: 3 // 7 // 3 // 2 // 5
  • Stat lines: 3/3:31 // 4/7:32 // 2/3:38 // 0/2:0 // 4/5:78:1
  • Averaging 8.46 DK ppg
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($3,800) twice in 13 games: 17.8 @ HOU in Week 18 // 20.7 vs. HOU in Week 11
  • Those stat lines: 4/5:78:1 // 7/8:107

TEN Back-Up WRs

  • Only Chester Rogers has seen meaningful targets lately among back-up WRs
  • Targets in last five games: 1 // 4 // 1 // 2 // 2
  • Stat lines: 1/1:13 // 4/4:30 // 1/1:3 // 2/2:13 // 2/2:4
  • Yet to score 12 DK pts this season

CIN vs. WRs

  • CIN ranked 17th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.97)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Keenan Allen 22.4 // Adam Thielen 30.2 // Davante Adams 40.6
  • Their stat lines: Allen 5/8:34:2 // Thielen 9/10:92:2 // Adams 11/16:206:1

Anthony Firkser

  • Among qualified TEs, ranked 24th in ADoT and 14th in RACR
  • Target counts in last five games: 5 // 2 // 1 // 3 // 4
  • Stat lines: 4/5:34 // 2/2:19 // 1/1:13 // 3/3:24:1 // 4/4:56:1
  • Averaged 5.34 DK ppg in 15 games
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($3,100) twice in 15 games: 13.6 vs. HOU in Week 11 // 15.6 @ HOU in Week 18
  • Those stat lines: 5/7:26 (recovered a fumble for TD) // 4/4:56:1

Geoff Swaim

  • Target counts in last five games: 4 // 2 // 3 // 3 // 1
  • Stat lines: 3/4:45 // 1/2:5 // 3/3:10 // 3/3:9:1 // 1/1:2
  • Averaged 5.68 DK ppg in 12 games
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($2,800) twice in 12 games: 12.3 @ IND in Week 8 // 12.9 @ LAR in Week 9
  • Those stat lines: 4/5:23:1 // 4/4:29:1

CIN vs. TEs

  • CIN ranked 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.83)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Travis Kelce 13.4 // Pat Freiermuth 14 // Darren Waller 14.6 // TJ Hockenson 15.4 // Waller 21.6 // Mark Andrews 29.5 // George Kittle 37.1
  • Their stat lines: Kelce 5/7:25:1 // Freiermuth 4/4:40:1 // Waller 7/12:76 // Hockenson 8/11:74 // Waller 7/8:116 // Andrews 8/10:125:1 // Kittle 13/15:151:1

Derrick Henry

  • Hasn’t played since Week 8
  • Progressing well in return from injury and expected to be activated to play Saturday
  • In those first eight weeks, among all RBs, Henry ranked first in total rushes, first in rush share, third in total goal line rushes, third in goal line share, and third in RBOPR
  • His 26 DK ppg were 3.5 more pts than second best Austin Ekeler
  • Target counts in first eight weeks: 4 // 6 // 3 // 2 // 0 // 3 // 2 // 0
  • Stat lines: 17/58 & 3/4:19 // 35/182:3 & 6/6:55 // 28/113:0 & 3/3:31 // 33/157:1 & 2/2:20 // 29/130:3 // 20/143:3 & 2/3:13 // 29/86:0 & 2/2:16 // 28/68:0
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($7,500) three times in eight games: 34 @ JAX in Week 5 // 38.6 vs. BUF in Week 6 // 50.7 @ SEA in Week 2
  • Those stat lines: 29/130:3 // 20/143:3 & 2/3:13 // 35/182:3 & 6/6:55

TEN Back-up RBs

  • Snaps from Weeks 9-18: D’Onta Foreman 230 // Dontrell Hilliard 198
  • Targets: Hilliard 26 (3.2 per game on the season) // Foreman 11 (1.2 per game on the season)
  • Touches: Foreman 142 (15.8 per game on the season) // Hilliard 75 (9.4 per game on the season)
  • Foreman has scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($5,400) once in eight games: 22.2 vs. MIA in Week 17
  • His stat line: 26/132:1
  • Hilliard has scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($4,300) once in 6 games: 22.3 @ NE in Week 12
  • His stat line: 12/131:1 & 1/2:2

CIN vs. RBs

  • CIN ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.29)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Darrel Williams 25.7 // Najee Harris 31.2 // Michael Carter 32.2 // Nick Chubb 33.3
  • Their stat lines: Williams 14/88:2 & 3/3:19 // Harris 14/40:0 & 14/19:102 // Carter 15/77:1 & 9/14:95 // Chubb 14/137:2 & 2/2:26


  • 2.5 sacks per game
  • 1.3 turnovers per game
  • Scored 4x Divisional DK salary ($2,900) five times in 17 games: 13 @ JAX in Week 5 // 15 vs. MIA in Week 17 // 16 @ LAR in Week 9 // 19 vs. KC in Week 7 // 21 vs. JAX in Week 14
  • Averaged 8.11 DK ppg at home vs. 6 on the road
  • Opposing D/STs vs. CIN average 5.72 DK ppg
  • Notable opposing D/ST scores: CLE 18 // CHI 19 // LAC 20

Kickoff Saturday, Jan 22nd 8:15pm Eastern

49ers (
21) at

Packers (

Over/Under 47.5


Key Matchups
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game features two very efficient offenses who can beat you in a variety of ways.
  • Temperatures will be approaching zero during the game Saturday night in a classic January playoff game at Lambeau Field.
  • There are pace concerns here, as the 49ers are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league while both teams play at a plodding pace.
  • Both teams have a clear “path of least resistance” offensively.
  • These teams met in Week 3, with the Packers winning 30-28 on a field goal at the buzzer.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers had a truly dominant performance in their Wild Card round upset of the Dallas Cowboys. The score at the end of the game and some “controversy” from the Dallas side is taking some focus away from the fact that the 49ers controlled the game from beginning to end. Dallas was lucky to even have a shot at the end of the game. Jimmy Garoppolo already had a thumb injury that he has been dealing with and now added a sprained shoulder to his list of ailments. This injury was sustained late in the first half, and Jimmy G was off the mark on several throws after that, including a critical interception in the 4th quarter that breathed life into an otherwise dead Dallas team. Jimmy’s health and effectiveness will be critical to the 49ers being able to win this game, although there have been no indications that he’s in danger of missing.

The 49ers should have a clear plan of attack against Green Bay, as the Packers have a solid pass defense (especially with the return of star cornerback Jaire Alexander) but the 28th ranked rush defense by DVOA. This is great news for San Francisco, who runs the ball at the 5th highest situation-neutral rate in the league and is top-5 in the league in rushing offense by almost any efficiency metric you can think of. The 49ers are not only great at running the football; they do it in a variety of ways and stress the defense uniquely. Deebo Samuel is establishing himself as one of the stars of the league as he brings dimensions to the field that few teams can handle. Eli Mitchell has been great as the lead running back. Both Mitchell and Samuel, as well as Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, excel at breaking tackles and making plays with the ball in their hands. While Jimmy G is limited in his skill set, he fits perfectly with the pieces of this San Francisco offense as the point guard who just has to get the ball to the playmakers. San Francisco will be “uniquely aggressive” as they find wrinkles and new looks to show defenses and will take their shots in other ways than the usual traditional downfield passing that most teams use to be aggressive. The 49ers will lean into their strengths and play at their usual methodical pace while being aggressive enough early to keep the game close or take a lead, as the last thing they will want is to be forced to play from behind with an already limited quarterback who is nursing multiple arm injuries in frigid temperatures.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

It is hard to imagine a worse matchup for Green Bay from a schematic standpoint. The strength of the 49ers offense (running game) lines up directly with the weakness of the Packers defense. Likewise, the strength of the 49ers defense lies in their elite run defense and stalwart defensive line and linebacker corps. This could be a big problem for Green Bay, whose offensive line has a couple of key players nursing and/or returning from injury and is missing their best offensive lineman, Elgton Jenkins, who was lost for the season a few weeks ago.

The Packers regularly play at a snail’s pace, something somewhat unique for a team that has been as successful as they have offensively. This is a game where taking control and building a lead would be very important, but the Packers are not the type of team that usually takes that approach. One huge factor in how the Packers attack this game, and the efficiency with which they are able to move the ball, is the health of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS). The Packers are most dangerous with MVS on the field to stretch the defense vertically and give Aaron Rodgers a legitimate downfield threat to make defenses pay for selling out to stop Davante Adams. MVS has a back injury and had a limited practice on Tuesday before sitting out both Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, it is hard to see him playing, and if he does find a way on the field, he will be at high risk of re-injury, and his effectiveness will be in question.

The way everything is lining up, the Packers are going to have to rely on Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to carry them to a victory. Their running game is strong, but the difficult matchup that San Francisco’s front seven presents, along with Green Bay’s offensive line issues, dictate that it will be tough sledding to consistently move the ball that way. Without MVS on the field, San Francisco will be able to give Adams even more attention than usual, which will force Rodgers to make his way against a San Francisco secondary that struggled to stay healthy for much of the year but is getting stronger by the week and just had a very good game against a loaded Dallas passing attack.

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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

While the “most likely outcome” is a grinder of a game, it should also be noted that there is a huge range of outcomes for how things could turn out. If Green Bay is able to get a lead early, it would not be surprising at all if Jimmy G is unable to function in comeback mode in cold weather with all of his injury issues, resulting in a Packers blowout. Likewise, it would not be completely surprising to see the San Francisco running game punish the Packers on the ground and take the lead while their defense turns the Packers offense into a one-dimensional attack and tees off on a battered offensive line with limited explosive threats. This would be similar to the NFC Championship game these teams played two years ago when the 49ers ran all over the Packers and dominated on their way to the Super Bowl.

The “likeliest game flow” is a slow-paced game, as both teams are well-coached and have talent on both sides of the ball while playing relatively conservatively from both a pace and play-calling perspective. The Packers have been one of the top teams in the league all season, and the 49ers are playing as well as anyone right now, making it unlikely that either team will fall significantly behind early in the game. The only paths to outlier scenarios would be “Jimmy G throws a stinker” or “Packers run defense gets completely smashed.” 



DFS+ Interpretation ::


By Dwprix >>

Week 3 Matchup:

  • SF trailed 17-0 in the 1st matchup
  • They came back and led 28-27 with only 37 seconds left
  • Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers into FG range for the game winner, 30-27
  • SF was without Eli Mitchell the first matchup
  • GB held SF to its 2nd lowest rushing total of the season (67 yds)
  • SF RT Mike McGlinchey played WK 3, now out for season
  • Tom Compton has filled in & owns PFFs 6th highest run blocking grade of all NFL O-lineman (Trent Williams is 1st, 99.9)
  • SF Slot Corner K’Waun Williams left injured after 6 snaps 
  • SF CB Josh Norman left injured after 30 snaps
  • Davante Adams: (12:132:1TD, 18 tgts, 34.2 DK pts, 4.12x)
  • $8.3k WK 3 // $8.5K this WK 
  • SF gave up 81 yards to DPI
  • SF starting CBs (PFF grade WK 3): Deommodore Lenoir (57.1) // Josh Norman, left injured (46.5) // Dontae Johnson (62.2)
  • Starting CBs this week (PFF grade): Emmanuel Mosley (70.3) // 3rd RD Rookie Ambry Thomas (52.2) // K’Waun Williams (64.5)
  • GB starting CBs WK 3: Jaire Alexander (75.1) // 1st RD Rookie Eric Stokes (66.3) // Chandon Sullivan (55.0)
  • Starting CBs this WK: Alexander (75.1) // Rasul Douglas (73.5) // Sullivan (55.0)
  • Deebo Samuel had his lowest DK pt total all season on 10 tgts, 2 rush atts (5:52 rec, 2:0 rush, 10.2 pts)


  • 47 total, tied with CIN @ TEN for lowest
  • GB favored by 6 (DK)
  • GB has the 2nd highest implied pt total (26.5)
  • SF has the lowest (20.5)
  • SF has won 3 straight playoff games vs GB: (37-20 2019 NFC Champ) // (23-20 2013 WC) // (45-32 2012 Div. RD) 
  • SF has won 4 of their last 5: (@ DAL 23-17, @ LAR 27-24, vs HOU 23-7, @ TEN 17-20, vs ATL 31-13, @ CIN 26-23)
  • Prior to sitting Rodgers for half of WK 18 vs DET, GB had won 5 straight: (vs MIN 37-10, vs CLE 24-22, @ BAL 31-30, vs CHI 45-30, vs LAR 36-28)
  • SF is 7-3 on the road // GB is 8-0 at home
  • ATS: SF (10-8) // GB (12-5)
  • GB ranks 10th in ppg (26.5) // SF ranks T-7th in ppg allowed (21.2) 
  • SF ranks T-13 in ppg (25.0) // GB ranks T-12 in ppg allowed (21.8)
  • GB is 4-0 vs playoff teams: (vs LAR 36-28, @ ARZ 24-21, @ CIN 25-22, @ SF 30-28)
  • WK 12 was the last time GB played a playoff team (vs LAR)
  • SF is 5-4 vs playoff teams (4-1 in their last 5): (@ DAL 23-17, @ LAR 27-24, @ TEN 17-20, @ CIN 26-23, vs LAR 31-10, vs ARZ 17-31, @ ARZ 10-17, vs GB 28-30, @ PHI 17-11) 
  • GB ranked 3rd in TO differential (+13) // SF T-22nd (-4)
  • GB ranks 1st in TOP (32.4) // SF ranks 12th (30.4)

Jimmy Garoppolo:

  • $5.2k is the cheapest starting QB & cheapest Jimmy has been all season
  • Jimmy to pay off: 3x (15.6) // 4x (20.8) // 5x (26)
  • He’s scored at least 3x this salary in 10 of 15 full games but 4x only twice
  • Ceiling games: 30.3 (5.4x) // 23.3 (4.1x) 
  • TD:INT ratio last 3 games: 2:5 
  • GB T-6th w/ 18 INTs
  • GB allows 19.3 DK pts to QBs (T-10th most)

Deebo Samuel:

  • Deebo’s .34 broken tackles/att is the highest of any ball carrier ever charted by PFF (min 50 atts)
  • 9 TDs in last 10 games (8 rush)
  • 18.0 yds/reception on 117 tgts, 80 receptions
  • This was 3rd behind DeSean Jackson (34 tgts) & Henry Ruggs (35 tgts)
  • Ceiling games: (31.1 @ TEN, 30.3 vs LAR, 38.7 vs SEA)
  • $7.6k is the 3rd highest priced WR & his lowest price since WK 10

SF Receiving:

  • SF ranked 1st in yds/completion (12.2) 
  • GB D ranked 10th in yds allowed/completion (9.8)
  • GB allows 35.9 DK pts to WR (16th most)
  • They allow the 11th most pts to TEs (13.4)
  • RR vs DAL of 27: Kittle (24) // Aiyuk (23) // Deebo (17) // Jennings (16) // Juszczyk (16) // Mitchell (10) // Sherfield (7) // Benjamin (4)
  • Tgts vs DAL (of 25): Aiyuk (6) // Jennings (5) // Samuel (3) // Kittle (3) // Juszczyk (3) // Sherfield (2) // Mitchell (2) // Benjamin (1)
  • Aiyuk ($5.2k) is the cheapest he’s been since WK 10
  • Tgts last 3: (6, 7, 6)
  • Kittle ($5.3k) is the cheapest he’s been since WK 9
  • Ceiling games: 37.1 (5.4x) // 42.6 (7.2x)
  • Deebo DNP the 42.6 game, was dealing with a hammy in the 37.1 game

Eli Mitchell:

  • Mitchell has at least 21 touches in 6 straight
  • SF O ranks 5th in run DVOA
  • GB D ranks 28th in DVOA vs the run
  • $5.8k is the 5th most expensive RB (Henry, Jones, Mixon, Singletary)
  • Mitchell has hit the 100 yd bonus 5 times in 12 games & has other games of 96, 85, & 91 rush yds 
  • He’s also scored at least 3x in 5 games
  • Ceiling games of: 24.0 (4.0x) //  30.8 (5.7x) // 22.7 (4.2x)

Aaron Rodgers:

  • Passer rating under pressure: 67.9 (21st)
  • Passer rating while clean: 123.0 (1st)
  • Nick Bosa’s (questionable, concussion) PFF pass rush grade (90.0) ranks 8th among D linemen
  • GB O ranks 2nd in pass DVOA
  • SF D ranks 15th vs the pass
  • GB ranks 9th in pass yds/g (253.8)
  • SF D ranks 6th in pass yds allowed (207.8)
  • Ceiling Games: (32.6 vs CHI, 36.5 @ MIN, 29.3 vs LAR)
  • $7.1k is the 3rd highest priced QB (Mahomes, Allen)
  • To pay off: 3x (21.3) // 4x (28.4) // 5x (35.5)
  • SF allows 18.6 DK pts/g to QBs (18.6)

Davante Adams:

  • 6 of 15 games with 30+ (33.6, 36.4, 37.1, 33.5, 40.6, 34.2) 
  • Scored 36.4 WK 16 vs CLE
  • CLE D tied with SF D in yds allowed/completion (9.4)
  • GB ranked T-8th in yds/completion (10.7)
  • Davante averaged 12.6/reception
  • $8.5k is the 2nd highest priced WR (Kupp)
  • To pay off: 3x (25.5) // 4x (34.0) // 5x (42.5)

GB Pass Catchers:

  • SF allows 36.9 DK pts to WRs (10th most)
  • They allow the 7th least DK pts to TEs (9.4)
  • SF D in WC vs DAL: Cooper (6:64:1TD, 18.4 DK pts) // Wilson (5:62, 11.2 pts) // Lamb (1:21, 6.6 pts)
  • SF allowed 11:145:1TD (34.5 DK pts, 5.47x) to AJ Brown WK 16 (Titans only scored 17 pts)
  • RR WK 17 vs MIN of 46: Adams (40) // MVS (36) // Lazard (35) // Dillon (22) // Jones (21) // Tyler Davis (20) // Josiah Deguara (20) // St. Brown (9) // 5 players w/ 8 or less
  • Tgts last 3: Adams (7, 14, 13) // Lazard (6, 6, 5) // MVS (Doubtful) (1, 3, DNP) // Cobb (5, 2, 4) // St. Brown (5, 2, 0) // Winfree (3, 2, 1) // Deguara (4, 3, 3) // Lewis (1, 0, 3)

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon:

  • SF allows 21.8 DK pts to RBs (10th fewest)
  • SF last week vs DAL: Pollard (4:14 rush , 2:12 rec, 4.6 DK pts) // Elliott (12:31, 1:0, 4.1 DK pts)
  • Dillon saw 14 carries on 39 snaps WK 18
  • Atts:tgts last 4: Jones (DNP, 8:6, 12:6, 13:2) // Dillon (14:1, 14:3, 9:3, 15:1)
  • Jones Ceiling game: 41.5 DK pts WK 2 vs DET (17:67:1TD rush, 6:48:3 TDs)
  • He had only 2 other games breaking 3x salary (24.0, 21.5)
  • Dillon had 3 games breaking 3x salary (22.3, 20.0, 26.8)
  • Jones ($6.8k) is the 2nd highest priced RB 
  • To pay off: 3x (20.4) // 4x (27.2) // 5x (34)
  • $5.1k is the cheapest Dillon has been since WK 10
  • To pay off: 3x (15.3) // 4x (20.4) // 5x (25.5)s

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 23rd 3:00pm Eastern

Rams (
22.5) at

Bucs (

Over/Under 48


Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Whereas the second Sunday game pits two of the top three offenses in pass rates, this one pits two of the top three offenses in pace of play, as the Rams check in third in the league in situation-neutral pace of play while the Bucs ranked second this season.
  • Left tackle Andrew Whitworth and safety Taylor Rapp have yet to practice this week for the Rams.
  • Tampa Bay’s journey to the Super Bowl will be far different this year when compared to last, when their health stayed relatively consistent throughout the post season; this year, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are out, and no fewer than five starters have yet to practice this week, including wide receivers Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman, running back Ronald Jones II, and two All-Pro offensive linemen in Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs.
  • No COVID concerns for either team as of Thursday.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Cam Akers szn has officially arrived. The Wildcard Round marked the first time in his career that Akers ran as the lead back for an NFL team, which is quite remarkable considering he tore his Achilles before the season. Even more remarkable is the fact that his coaching and training staff felt he was healthy enough to see 32 offensive snaps in a blowout win, indicating that they were prioritizing getting him NFL game action. As in, Akers saw 19 running back opportunities in a game the Rams controlled throughout last week, and he did so six months removed from a torn Achilles. Let’s take a moment to appreciate how insane that is. Okay, that was fun. Back to the write-up. The Rams have shown to be one of the more adaptable offensive units in the league this year, capable of both in-game adjustments and altered game plans. Why is that important to us this week? Well, their opponent in the Divisional Round faced the fewest rushes against of any team this season and should be considered one of the more pass-funnel defensive units in the league. This should serve to filter additional volume to the passing game for as long as this game remains competitive (spoiler alert, it should be competitive throughout).

Darrell Henderson, Jr., who has lost his hold on this backfield over the second half of the season, remains on IR, meaning backfield duties should be split between incumbent starter Sony Michel and the electric Cam Akers moving forward. The dynamic abilities of Akers on the ground (and through the air) give this offense exactly what they have been searching for, a running back with plus vision and plus burst, capable of hitting gaps in a heavy zone-blocking run scheme. The matchup against the Bucs tilts expected volume to the air, but I wouldn’t expect the Rams to completely ignore the run game here, meaning both Akers and Michel should see a minimum of 10-12 rushes with pass game work mixed in. It bears mention that the Rams targeted the running back position at a bottom-five rate this season (13%). Back to the matchup – the pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.18 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bucs defense that faced the fewest rush attempts against and filtered the second-most targets to opposing backfields (144). This makes the low running back target rates shown from the Rams notable.

Pass-catcher snap rates for the Rams depend heavily on game flow and subsequent rush rates, as Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the only two pass-catchers to play almost every offensive snap on a consistent basis since the team’s Week 11 bye (Higbee missed two games in that span). The snap rates of Van Jefferson, Odell Beckham, Jr., and the rotational tight ends have varied depending on game flow and subsequent rush rates, which plays a large role in our attempt to dissect how they are likeliest to attack here. As in, the Rams have exhibited a bias towards heavier sets and increased rush rates in games they control and heavy 11-personnel (3-wide sets) in games they are playing from behind. The big picture here is I don’t expect those tendencies to change much here, even in a game against the Buccaneers. Something that has gone largely unnoticed or not talked about is the fact that the Bucs have ceded a very NFL-average 4.4 yards per carry this season, a far cry from their top marks last season.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers were the league’s most aerial-aggressive offense this season in about any metric you look at, leading the league in situation-neutral pass rate, overall pass rate, pass rates over the second half of the season, pass rate when leading. They also ran the league’s fastest offense in the first half of games this season, finishing the year with the second-fastest situation-neutral pace of play. When we combine those offensive tendencies with a defense that faced the fewest rushing against of any team this season, we start to see how the Buccaneers were involved in so many offensive shootouts this year. They quite literally invite it through their game planning and execution. Now consider the fact that lead back Leonard Fournette has been out for a month, number two back Ronald Jones II has yet to practice this week, and the Rams boast a top-five run defense, and we’re left with yet another game where the Bucs should lean heavily into the passing game.

Leonard Fournette was seen participating in practice on Thursday, which would mark his first practice action since injuring his hamstring in Week 15. Head coach Bruce Arians was quoted as saying the plan for Fournette was to take a “wait and see” approach, so his return to practice on Thursday bodes well for his chances to return in time for Sunday’s game. Keep an eye on the Friday practice report and subsequent Saturday IR-return deadline. As things currently stand, I tentatively expect Fournette to make his return to the starting lineup this week. The same cannot be said for fellow back Ronald Jones II, who missed practice both days this week (as of Thursday). The backfield split is likely to be most influenced by health, and I would tentatively expect Fournette to not be charged with his same featured role should he return in time for the Divisional clash with the Rams. As in, I expect Fournette to be joined by both Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard (who returned last week from a four-game absence of his own) as regular contributors to the offense here. That leaves little to like from a fantasy expectation perspective when you also consider the matchup and Tampa Bay play-calling tendencies. Should both Fournette and Jones miss once more, expect a relatively even split in backfield work between Bernard and Vaughn, with Gio the back more likely to be utilized heavier in a negative-to-neutral game script (when the Bucs are trailing and in close games). The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.26 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Los Angeles defense that allowed only 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields during the regular season.

Things don’t get any easier for the Bucs through the air, at least from the standpoint of their expected level of health. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown remain out (or no longer with the team), while Cyril Grayson and Breshad Perriman have yet to practice this week with hamstring and hip ailments, respectively. That leaves Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, and special teams ace Jaelon Darden as the only remaining healthy wide receivers currently on the active roster, which could serve to increase the already high 12-personnel packages from the Bucs as the team fights to get healthy pass-catchers onto the field. The final major discussion point surrounding this pass offense is from the other side of the ball, as I don’t expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow this week. Since Tom Brady is a veteran quarterback that has shown a historical propensity to target the players he either has a connection with or trusts, and since neither Tyler Johnson nor Scotty Miller has seen more than just seven targets in any game this year, we should expect the vast majority of the passing volume to flow through Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate (OJ Howard has seen his role morph into a primary-blocker role), and the running backs.

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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Although it arguably isn’t the most likely scenario as far as game environment and game flow are concerned, the Rams bumped their pass rates all the way up to 70% when trailing this season. Either way, we should expect both of these teams to primarily turn to the air as they fight their way towards the NFC Championship game, particularly considering the matchup for the Rams and the offensive play calling tendencies exhibited by the Bucs throughout the season. This does a couple of things for us that help to raise the overall game environment here: (1) it generates a high likelihood of additional offensive plays run from scrimmage, (2) it reduces the variance associated with pass volume by providing more “outs,” or paths to each team passing, and (3) it raises the already sky-high floors and ceilings of the individual pass-catchers from this game, who already play on extremely concentrated pass offenses. The actual likeliest game flow almost doesn’t matter to us from a DFS perspective at that point, but the likeliest scenario involves a back-and-forth affair with neither team pulling away from the other – another boon to this game environment. Expect there to be passing, a lot of passing.



DFS+ Interpretation ::


By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Rams have beat Brady Bucs 27-24 in 2020 and 34-24 in W3
  • Brady has thrown 48 & 55 times, while Goff & Stafford have thrown 51 & 38 times
  • The teams combined for just 79 rush yds, 1 TD on 38 att in the 2020 matchup
  • In W3, Brady led TB with 14 rush yds and Michel led LAR with 67 yds on 20 att
  • There have been 138 & 134 combined plays in the two matchups
  • After 2 INT each by Goff/Brady in 2020, neither team turned the ball over in W3

Tom Brady:

  • TB has scored 30+ in all four Brady playoff games thus far
  • Brady in the two Rams games: 26/48 for 216:2:2 and 41/55 for 432:1, rush TD
  • The Rams allowed 17.5 DK pts/g (8th fewest)
  • Brady averaged 24.2 DK pts/g
  • Brady since losing Godwin: 14.4 // 30.4 // 28 // 18.8
  • The Rams allowed just 16 TDs to 19 INT
  • Brady has scored multiple TDs in 14/18 games
  • The Rams allowed the 9th most pass yds
  • Brady has passed for 250+ yds in 13/18 games (9/18 over 300yds)
  • The Rams had the 3rd most sacks (50)
  • TB’s two best linemen, Wirfs & Jensen are questionable with Aaron Donald on deck
  • The Rams ranked 6th in def pass DVOA
  • Brady vs other top-10 pass DVOA: BUF (1st: 363:2) // DAL (2nd: 379:4:2) // NE (3rd: 269:0) // NOR (4th: 375:4:2; 214:0:1) // MIA (9th: 411:5)


  • TB WRs since losing Godwin & Brown: Evans (47:1, 89:2, 117:1) // Johnson (50, 22, 30) // Grayson (81:1, –, –) // Perriman (41, 44, 5)
  • Top-level WRs vs LAR: Pittman (8:123) // Evans (8:106), Godwin (6:74) // Hopkins (4:67) // Metcalf (5:98:2), Lockett (5:57) // Cooks (6:83:1) // AJ Brown (5:42) // Deebo (5:97:1, 36:1) // Adams (8:104) // Hopkins (5:54) // Metcalf (6:52) // Jefferson (8:116), Thielen (3:40) // Deebo (4:95, 45:1)
  • The Rams allowed the 5th most overall WR DK pts/g (38.4) behind the 3rd most rec & 4th most yds
  • The Rams did only allow the 2nd most WR TDs (10)
  • 16 WRs had 70+ vs the Rams
  • Evans has 70+ yds in 10 of 17 games
  • Grayson’s 6:81:1 vs NYJ is the only useful thing a non-Evans WR has done in absence of Godwin/Brown, and a lot of his production (including the long TD) came on the final GW-drive


  • Gronk’s full games: 8:90:2 // 4:39:2 // 4:55 // 6:71 // 7:123 // 4:58:2 // 5:62 // 2:29 // 1:23 // 7:115 // 7:137 // 5:31:1
  • Gronk has just three games below 8 tg all season (5, 2, 6), (8, 8, 8, 10, 8, 9, 11, 10, 10)
  • One of those games (6) was last week; with Wirfs injury, it is possible Gronk has more blocking snaps
  • Gronk went 2:25 vs Rams in 2020 and then 4:55 vs Rams in W3 when he broke his ribs
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs LAR: Kmet (42) // Doyle (64) // Gronk (55) // Williams (66:1) // Hock (48) // Akins (53), Jordan (41:1) // Kittle (50:1) // Ertz (42) // Everett (60) // Conklin (44) // Andrews (89) 
  • Since Gronk’s return in W11, Brate has 3-4 tg in 8/10 games (6 & 1 in others)


  • Only three teams allowed fewer RB DK pts than LAR in 2020 (6th fewest RB rush yds)
  • Only six teams allowed fewer RB DK pts than LAR in 2021 (9th fewest RB rush yds)
  • RBs with 15+ touches vs LAR: Monty (118:1) // Taylor (53) // Edmonds (139), Conner (66:2) // Collins (72) // Booker (69) // Swift (144:1) // Mitchell (91) // Dillon (90:1) // Conner (125:2) // Mattison (70:1) // Freeman (77) // Mitchell (85)
  • Fournette has 15+ touches in 12/14 games
  • Fournette has 6 games of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • Fournette has 3+ rec in 13/14 games, 5+ rec in 7/14 games
  • Fournette has 40+ rec yds in 6 games
  • Gio may steal some pass game work if TB finds themselves trailing more in this game, as his best game of the season came in W3 vs LAR (9:51:1 on 10 tg)
  • RBs in W3: Fournette (4:8, 3:26) // RoJo (5:11)
  • RBs in 2020: Fournette (7:17:1, 1:9) // RoJo (10:24)
  • Fournette’s playoff career (touches:yds:TDs)::
  • 2017 (JAC): 26:76 // 29:119:3 // 27:89:1
  • 2020 (TB): 23:132:1 // 23:107:1 // 19:74:1 // 20:135:1

Matthew Stafford:

  • TB allowed 6 QBs over 300 yds in 20 games last year
  • TB has allowed 5 QBs over 300 yds in 18 games this year
  • Stafford has thrown for 300+ yds in 7/18 games (4 more of 280+)
  • TB faced the most pass att/g (only team of 40+)
  • TB has allowed 2+ TDs to 9 QBs; 3+ TDs to 5 QBs
  • Stafford has 2+ TDs in 14 games; 3+ TDs in 10 games
  • TB had the 2nd highest rate of pressure and the highest blitz rate per PFR
  • Stafford vs TB in W3: 343:4


  • LAR WRs vs TB in 2020: Kupp (11:145) // Woods (12:130:1) // Van (1:7:1)
  • LAR WRs vs TB in W3: Kupp (9:96:2) // Woods (3:33) // Van (4:42) // DJax (3:120:1)
  • TB has allowed 16 WRs of 60+ yds; 5 WRs of 100+ yds
  • TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • Kupp has averaged 111.6 yds/g on 11 tg/g over the 18 games in 2021 (17 TDs)
  • WRs with 10+ tg vs TB: Cooper (139:2), Lamb (104:1) // Ridley (63:1) // Kupp (96:2) // Meyers (70) // Toney (40) // Pittman (53) // Gage (130) // Diggs (74), Beasley (64) // Robby (58), Moore (55) // Berrios (65:1) // Moore (87) // Smith (60)
  • Odell has caught a TD in 6 of his last 8 games
  • Odell has under 40 yds in 6 of his 9 Rams games
  • He has 81:1, 77:1, 54:1 in the other 3

Tyler Higbee:

  • TB allowed 14.2 & 14.0 DK pts/g to TEs in Bowles first two TB seasons
  • TB allowed 12.6 DK pts/g to TEs in 2021
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs TB: Schultz (45) // Pitts (73, 48) // Higbee (40:1) // Gesicki (43) // Kmet (43) // Doyle (81:1) // Knox (60:1) // Goedert (92)
  • Other TEs to score vs TB: Henry, Jonnu, Ertz
  • Higbee since returning: 5:41 // 6:69 // 6:55:2 // 3:46
  • TEs in 2020 matchup: Higbee (4:19) // Everett (4:27)


  • TB has allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 20 games last season, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • Gurley & AK were the only two RBs to break 20 DK pts in 2019 vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • TB has allowed four 20+ DK pt scores to RBs in 2021
  • The four RBs: Patterson (7:11:1, 5:58:1) // Gaskin (5:25, 10:74:2) // Herbert (18:100, 5:33) // Gibson (24:64:2, 2:14)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed this year)
  • Targets last four weeks: Michel (4, 5, 4, 0) // Akers (–, –, 3, 2)
  • Touches:yds last two weeks: Michel (25:49 // 13:58) // Akers (8:13 // 19:95)
  • RBs in 2020: Akers (6:19:1) // Henderson (11:9) // Brown (4:28)
  • RBs in W3: Michel (24:79)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 23rd 6:30pm Eastern

Bills (
26.25) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 55


Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>
  • This game pits two of the top three offenses in situation-neutral pass rates over the course of the full season (Buffalo ranked second at 62% and Kansas City ranked third at 59%). Each offense checked in at 62% during the second half of the season, which again ranked right behind Tampa Bay for tops in the league.
  • Expect points to be scored here, as the Chiefs ranked first in drive success rate, first in plays per drive, first in yards per drive, and first in points per drive this season, while the Bills ranked fifth, seventh, 10th, and sixth, respectively.
  • The Bills injury report is about as clean as it gets, with only defensive end Mario Addison making an appearance through Wednesday (limited).
  • No current COVID concerns for the Bills.
  • The Chiefs expect running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire back from injury. Darrel Williams missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after attempting to play through injury last week. The only other player who failed to practice on Wednesday for the Chiefs was cornerback Rashad Fenton.
  • No current COVID concerns for the Chiefs.
  • Apologies upfront, this is one of my longer write-ups of the year. I felt diving into some of the nuance from this game warranted a deeper exploration than normal.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

This one is honestly a little more nuanced than most will give credit for this weekend, as the Chiefs have been trending towards a run-funnel defense of late (6.8 yards per carry allowed to the Broncos in Week 18, 5.2 allowed to the Steelers in Week 16, 4.9 allowed to the Chargers in Week 15). They have played much better defense at home this season (17.9 points allowed per game at home against 25.8 per game on the road) and have forced teams to attack the shorter areas of the field through the air (7.5 aDOT forced, NFL-average completion rate allowed). While we know the Bills have been one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league from a game-planning perspective (second in the league in situation-neutral pass rates this year), we also know that Brian Daboll is one of the most efficient offensive minds in tailoring his offense to take advantage of what his opponent gives him. With that in mind, we should view this spot as carrying a rather wide range of outcomes, as far as what we think the likeliest scenario is for how Buffalo will try to win this game. It should not shock us to see the Bills come out and hammer the run game for the first half in an attempt to keep the ball away from the explosive offense of the Chiefs, against what should be considered their biggest defensive weakness. We also shouldn’t be shocked to see the Bills come out and try to go toe-to-toe with the pass offense of the Chiefs, knowing they have the league’s most efficient pass defense behind them. Leverage will come into play as we break down the rest of the Bills side below.

Devin Singletary’s snap rates over the last six Buffalo games, sorted from Week 14 to the Wildcard Round: 82%, 93%, 68%, 80%, 76%, and 86%. For comparison, he had just two games before Week 14 with a snap rate over 68%. His running back opportunities over that same six week period: 11, 23, 18, 24, 21, and 20. Before Week 14, his most opportunities in a game was 16, which he hit three times over the first 13 games. To say that the Bills have moved away from a backfield committee would be an understatement. Oh, and he also scored eight touchdowns from Week 14 on, compared to just two in the first 13 games of the season, including two touchdowns in each of his last three games. The Bills seem to have finally settled on their guy. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.53 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Chiefs defense that allowed opposing backfields to post a healthy 24.3 fantasy points per game during the regular season. That total also included the fifth-most running back targets (131). Surprisingly enough, the Chiefs allowed only nine total touchdowns to running backs during the regular season, which was the second-fewest only to the Cardinals (tied with the Patriots). Behind Singletary, expect Zack Moss to operate in a low-upside, change of pace role, with fullback Reggie Gilliam playing a modest role in heavy sets. Of note, Matt Breida played exactly five offensive snaps over the previous five games and has been all but phased out of the offense entirely.

In the spirit of our exploration of Brian Daboll and his propensity to relentlessly attack his opponent’s weaknesses, let’s start by discussing what those weaknesses are for the Chiefs and their pass defense. The top-level defensive pass metrics for the Chiefs appear below average across the board at first glance, but digging a little deeper gives us a better glimpse into what is really happening here. They allowed a 15th-ranked 65.7% completion rate and fell below league average in yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per completion; however, the vast majority of the damage inflating those yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per completion values was due to YAC allowed, as the Chiefs ceded 2,500 total yards after catch over their 17-game season (over 147 per game!). Basically, the Chiefs have given up league-average completion rates and have done so by taking away the deep areas of the field. Where they clearly have struggled the most (as a defense) is with yards after catch from short-to-intermediate passing and the run game. The heavy Cover-0 and Cover-1 rates by the Chiefs have left significant gaps that talented opposing receivers can take advantage of, partly telling of how they have performed so poorly in the YAC department. Enter otherworldly man-beater Stefon Diggs, who should see about 40% of his snaps lined up across from man coverage this week. His snaps were managed last week in a blowout win over the Patriots but expect him back around the 80-95% snap rate range here. Gabriel Davis continued his string of increased snap rate games last week, but, again, it came in a blowout win where the Bills had the luxury of resting Emmanuel Sanders in only his second game action over the past five weeks. I tentatively expect Sanders to regain his role as the primary downfield threat on this offense, relegating Davis to his more moderate 30-40% snap rate role. Cole Beasley has long been considered one of the premier slot wide receivers against zone coverages, which he should see a good deal against a defense that mixes coverages based on down-and-distance to go. Don’t expect anything more than 50-60% of the offensive snaps in an offense that has the luxury of mixing pass-catching personnel. That leaves every-down tight end Dawson Knox and gadget wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie fighting for the proverbial scraps on a standard week. Of note, the Chiefs have been competent against tight ends this season after struggling with coverage of the position in years past, finishing the season in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed per game to the position.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

-Patrick Mahomes pass attempts in losses or games the Chiefs won by seven points or less (sorted from most recent): 44, 35, 47, 37, 48, 35, 54, 44, 31, and 36. That’s an average of 41.1 pass attempts per game in that split.

-Patrick Mahomes pass attempts in wins by eight points or more (sorted from most recent): 39, 30, 24, 29, 37, 47, 30. That’s an average of 33.7 pass attempts per game in that split.

The point of that exercise is to ground our minds back to the fact that this offense is still captained by Patrick Mahomes, and his head coach prefers to keep games in his hands for as long as they need to be. In one of the most anticipated games in recent memory, one that also should play rather close throughout, we should expect the play calling and offense overall to remain in Patrick Mahomes capable hands, regardless of their opponent. That’s an important realization to come to, considering the Chiefs face off against the league’s top-rated pass defense this week. Furthering that assertion are the unknowns surrounding their backfield this week, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire likely returning from a three-week absence, Darrel Williams appearing likely to miss this contest, and Jerick McKinnon three weeks removed from a six-week absence of his own (yea, the Chiefs side of this one is a little less nuanced than the Bills side, so this part of the write-up will be a little shorter).

As alluded to above, the run game has no less than three question marks surrounding everything from expected snap rates, to expected workloads, to expected rush rates. All we know is that CEH is due back, Darrel Williams is likely to miss, and the team has Jerick McKinnon and Derrick Gore on hand to mix in as required. Should both CEH and Williams play, we should expect a loose three-way timeshare as two of the primary members work their way back from injury. Should CEH return and Williams miss, we’re likely to see a tight-split duo made up of CEH and McKinnon, with Gore on hand for emergency duties. Should both CEH and Williams miss, we’re likely to see McKinnon once again run as the clear alpha and borderline every-down back. The matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.095 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bills defense that allowed just 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields in the regular season, including only 57 receptions allowed on 92 targets (yea, that was the fewest receptions allowed to opposing backfields in the league this year).

As per the previous discussion, expect the majority of responsibility to be placed on Patrick Mahomes and his pass-catchers here, which begs the question, how healthy are his pass-catchers? Travis Kelce played 79% of the offensive snaps or fewer in every game since the Chiefs Week 12 bye. Tyreek Hill returned to the lineup last week after fighting through a heel injury to play a “standard for him over the second half of the season” 77% of the offensive snaps. Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson have maintained situational roles over the second half of the season, with none of the three playing over 65% of the offensive snaps on a standard week. In addition to all of that, they now have to face the league’s number one rated pass defense. All of that to say, there are a good deal more unknowns surrounding this spot that we’re used to dealing with when we think of the Chiefs, and it remains to be seen how the field will handle the situation. The one positive stemming from this exploration is the absence of All-World cover corner Tre’Davious White, who was lost for the year earlier this season.

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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see the Bills come out firing in a “prove it” game, but the percentage chances of that happening or only slightly greater than they are for them attempting to keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes and company for most of the first half, through inflated rush rates and short-area passing. All of that to say, we really don’t know how the Bills will approach this one, an important realization to come to terms with considering they are the team likeliest to be driving the overall pace, game environment, and flow here. Furthermore, each team’s first possession is likely to dictate the ultimate path of this game, primarily due to the adaptability of each coaching staff. As in, if each team comes out and puts up points on their first drive, all bets are off, but if each team fails to cross midfield, we could see a more conservative game plan develop as each coach attempts to keep the ball away from the opposing offense. As such, and considering the fact that the field is highly likely to only consider this game through the lens of a shootout, I recommend starting your process this week by working through these various possibilities from this game before continuing on to other games, which will give you a better idea of how different rosters look with each Bills/Chiefs scenario fresh in your mind.

DFS+ Interpretation ::


By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Matchups since 2020: 26-17 KC // 38-24 KC // 38-20 BUF
  • KC pass & non-QB rush att: 26 pass, 35 rush // 38 pass, 20 rush // 54 pass, 17 rush
  • BUF pass & non-QB rush att: 27 pass, 15 rush // 48 pass, 11 rush // 26 pass, 17 rush
  • QB rushing: Mahomes (10:36 // 5:5 // 8:61) // Allen (8:42 // 7:88 // 11:59:1)

Patrick Mahomes:

  • BUF allowed the fewest yds/drive on the 3rd fewest plays/drive allowed
  • BUF finished 1st in def pass DVOA
  • Including last week, BUF has allowed 14 pass TDs to 21 INT
  • After getting through a shaky stretch middle of season, Mahomes has 17 TDs to 2 INT in the past six games
  • Only QBs over just 200 yds vs BUF: Tua (205), Heinicke (212), Tanny (216), Mac (232), Mahomes (272), Brady (363)
  • 9 QBs in 19 g threw for 300+ yds vs BUF in 2020, but just one through 18 g in 2021
  • Mahomes vs BUF since 2020: 225:2 // 325:3 // 272:2:2
  • Mahomes career in Div Rd: 278:0, 8:1 (IND) // 321:5, 53 (HOU) // 255:1, 14:1 (CLE)


  • Tyreek Hill vs BUF: 2017 (7:41) // 2020 (3:20 // 9:172) // 2021 (7:63)
  • Hill has finished above 60 rec yds in 45 of his 63 full games since 2018, but has three straight full games under 60 yds since coming back from Covid and subsequently getting hurt
  • The final game scores of Hill’s 25+ pt scores since 2020: (35-9), (33-31), (35-31), (27-24), (33-27), (38-24), (33-29), (42-30), (20-17), (41-14), (34-28)
  • Since 2019 (56 games), the quartet of Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle has produced just 8 scores of 20+ DK pts, with the biggest coming either during the absence of Hill or with him playing extremely limited snaps
  • 3 of the 8 scores have come in the last four games in which Hill has been limited (Pringle x2, Hardman)
  • BUF allowed the fewest WR DK pts/g (25.1)
  • BUF allowed just six WR TDs, and 113.2 WR yds/g
  • WRs with 8+ tg vs BUF: Diontae (36:1), Juju (52) // Parker (42), Waddle (48) // Hill (63), Hardman (76) // Brown (91) // Parker (85), Waddle (29) // Godwin (105) // Moore (48), Robby (29) // Meyers (59) // Bourne (77:2), Meyers (40)
  • Bourne’s 7:77:2 in the WC round was the highest DK score BUF has allowed this year, but most of his production came when NE was already down huge

Travis Kelce:

  • Since 2020: Kelce has produced 70+ yds in 22/35 games, including 14 100yd games and 24 TDs
  • In 2021, Kelce has scored 17+ DK pts in 9/17 games; 20+ in 6 games
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill sub-15 DK pts: 22.5 // 30.6 // 22.8 // 26.9 // 20.4 // 17.7 // 12.5 // 17.8 // 5.7 // 5.7 // 13.4 // 13.4
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill 25+ DK pts: 27.9 // 28.9 // 29.9 // 16.2 // 30.6 // 25.6 // 6.3 // 4.7 // 22.9 // 44.1
  • BUF allowed the 6th lowest RZ success rate
  • BUF allowed the 9th lowest success rate to TEs (compared to 6th & 2nd lowest to RBs & WRs)
  • TEs to top 40+ yds vs BUF: Gesicki (41, 48) // Thomas (42:1) // Kelce (57:1) // Arnold (60) // Gronk (62) // Pitts (69)
  • Kelce vs BUF: 2017 (3:39) // 2020 (5:65:2 // 13:118:2) // 2021 (6:57:1)
  • Kelce playoff DK scores with Mahomes (low-high): 7.5 // 12.8 // 19.3 // 21.3 // 28.3 // 28.9 // 28.9 // 43.3 // 46.4


  • Of BUF’s 14 RB rush TDs allowed, 11 of them came from Henry (3), Taylor (4), & Harris (4)
  • The only other RB TDs scored vs BUF: rush (Carter, Fournette, Davis) // rec (Gibson, Taylor, Abdullah)
  • KC RB TDs as main guy: CEH (6 TDs in 9 g) // Williams (6 TDs in 9 g) // McKinnon (2 TDs in 2 g)
  • RBs with 50+ yds vs BUF: Gibson (104:1) // Henry (156:3) // Gaskin (55) // Hyde (73) // Carter (82:1) // Taylor (204:1) // Harris (111:1), Stevenson (78) // Fournette (132:1) // Abdullah (55:1) // Harris (103:3) // Davis (57:1), CPatt (52) // Stevenson (60)
  • KC RBs games with 50+ yds: CEH (6) // Williams (9) // McKinnon (2) // Gore (2)
  • At least one KC RB has 10+ rush att in 14 games (two RBs in 3 games)
  • McKinnon receiving last two: 3:26:1 // 6:81:1
  • BUF allowed the 3rd lowest yds/att & 4th lowest success rate on RB targets
  • KC RBs total yds vs BUF since 2020::
  • CEH: 169 // 7:1 // 24
  • Williams: 41:1 // 61:1 // 45

Josh Allen:

  • KC has allowed 17.9 ppg in 10 home games vs 25.75 ppg in 8 road games
  • BUF scored 38 points at Arrowhead in W5, the most KC has given up in any game this year
  • After a horrid start to the season, KC has allowed just one of the last 11 QBs to throw for 270+ yds (Burrow’s 446)
  • Allen has thrown for 270+ yds in 8/18 games (7 of which are 300+)
  • Top QBs passing vs KC: Lamar (239:1:2) // Herbert (281:4 // 236:2:1) // Allen (315:3) // Carr (261:2:1 // 263:1:1) // Dak (216:0:2) // Burrow (446:4)
  • QB rushing vs KC: Lamar (107:2) // Herbert (16, 16:1) // Hurts (47) // Allen (59:1) // Tanny (6:1) // Love (23) // Lock (35:2)
  • Allen has 13 games in 2021 of 30+ rush yds (8 of 50+)
  • KC has allowed 2+ QB TDs in 11/18 games
  • Allen has 15 games of 2+ TDs, 9 games of 3+ TDs
  • Allen vs KC: 122:2:1, 41 // 287:2:1, 88 // 315:3, 59:1
  • Allen in the playoffs::
  • 2019: 264:0, 92, rec TD
  • 2020: 324:2, 54:1 // 206:1, 3 // 287:2:1, 88 
  • 2021: 308:5, 66

Devin Singletary:

  • KC ranked 20th in def rush DVOA
  • RBs with 80+ rush yds vs KC: Chubb (83:2) // Henry (86) // J Williams (102) // Jackson (86)
  • Singletary has 6 games of 80+ rush yds (4 of the last 5 games)
  • KC allowed the 4th highest success rate & 5th highest yds/att on RB tg
  • RBs with 40+ rec yds vs KC: Ekeler (52:1) // Gainwell (58) // Moss (55) // McKissic (65) // Booker (65) // Dillon (44) // J Williams (76:1) // Jacobs (46)
  • Singletary’s only games of 30+ rec yds: 7:43 in 6-9 L to JAC // 6:37 in 27-33 L to TB // 5:39 in 33-21 W vs NE
  • Singletary’s touches since W12: 16 // 10 // 11 // 23 // 18 // 24 // 21 // 20
  • Singletary’s yds in those games: 48 // 36 // 89 // 96:1 // 78:1 // 110:2 // 112:2 // 94:2
  • Singletary’s DK pts in those games: 5.8 // 3.6 // 14.9 // 16.6 // 18.8 // 26 // 25.2 // 24.4
  • BUF RBs total yds vs KC::
  • Singletary: 45 // 26 // 23
  • Moss: 10 // – // 92


  • Diggs has 70+ yds in 8/18 games after reaching 70+ yds in 15/18 games in 2020
  • Diggs has six 20+ pt DK scores this year (21.4, 23.9, 33.2, 20.4, 21.5, 23.1) after 10 in 18 games in 2020
  • Diggs had 25+ DK pts in 7 games last year
  • Diggs has 25+ DK pts in just 1 game this year (33.2 vs NYJ)
  • Diggs 1st & 3rd highest scoring games came against the Jets, a defense allowing 34.3 DK pts/g to WRs and ranked 32nd in def pass DVOA
  • After allowing the 2nd fewest WR DK pts/g in 2019 & 2020, KC allowed 36.7 DK pts/g to WRs and ranked 23rd in def pass DVOA in 2021
  • KC’s final rank in weighted DVOA was 13th, which weighs more heavily the more recent games
  • KC allowed the 10th lowest success rate to WRs
  • Tg since W10: Sanders (2, 5, 3, 6, 1, -, 4, -, -, 3 :: 24) // Davis (3, 4, 3, 4, 8, 7, -, 3, 14, 3 :: 49) // Beasley (2, 5, 5, 3, 11, 8, – , 6, 5, 1 :: 46) // McKenzie (3, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 12, 2, 1, 3)
  • Beasley has one game of 50+ yds in that span (9:64 vs TB)
  • Davis has two games of 50+ yds in that span (3:105 vs NYJ // 5:85:2 vs CAR)
  • Sanders surpassed 30 yds last week for the first time in that span (2:36:1)
  • McKenzie’s two best games both came against the slow NE defense, though his big one came with both Davis & Beasley out
  • BUF WRs vs KC since 2020::
  • Diggs: 6:46:1 // 6:77 // 2:69
  • Beasley: 4:45:1 // 7:88 // 1:5
  • Davis: 1:7 // 0:0 // 1:16
  • Sanders: 4:76 (w/ NOR) // 3:54:2

Dawson Knox:

  • Knox has sub-10 DK pts in 9 games
  • Knox’s other 7 games: 4:49:1 // 5:37:2 // 3:117:1 // 6:80 // 3:32:2 // 7:60:1 // 5:89:2
  • TEs with 10+ DK pts vs KC: Njoku (10.6) // Andrews (10.7) // Goedert (16.6), Ertz (12) // Knox (23.7) // RSJ (15.8) // Pruitt (10.7) // Engram (10.5) // Schultz (11.3)
  • KC allowed the 9th highest success rate to TEs