Kickoff Saturday, Jan 22nd 8:15pm Eastern

49ers (
21) at

Packers (
26.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
4th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
7th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
3rd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
13th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
32nd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
20th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
19th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game features two very efficient offenses who can beat you in a variety of ways.
  • Temperatures will be approaching zero during the game Saturday night in a classic January playoff game at Lambeau Field.
  • There are pace concerns here, as the 49ers are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league while both teams play at a plodding pace.
  • Both teams have a clear “path of least resistance” offensively.
  • These teams met in Week 3, with the Packers winning 30-28 on a field goal at the buzzer.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers had a truly dominant performance in their Wild Card round upset of the Dallas Cowboys. The score at the end of the game and some “controversy” from the Dallas side is taking some focus away from the fact that the 49ers controlled the game from beginning to end. Dallas was lucky to even have a shot at the end of the game. Jimmy Garoppolo already had a thumb injury that he has been dealing with and now added a sprained shoulder to his list of ailments. This injury was sustained late in the first half, and Jimmy G was off the mark on several throws after that, including a critical interception in the 4th quarter that breathed life into an otherwise dead Dallas team. Jimmy’s health and effectiveness will be critical to the 49ers being able to win this game, although there have been no indications that he’s in danger of missing.

The 49ers should have a clear plan of attack against Green Bay, as the Packers have a solid pass defense (especially with the return of star cornerback Jaire Alexander) but the 28th ranked rush defense by DVOA. This is great news for San Francisco, who runs the ball at the 5th highest situation-neutral rate in the league and is top-5 in the league in rushing offense by almost any efficiency metric you can think of. The 49ers are not only great at running the football; they do it in a variety of ways and stress the defense uniquely. Deebo Samuel is establishing himself as one of the stars of the league as he brings dimensions to the field that few teams can handle. Eli Mitchell has been great as the lead running back. Both Mitchell and Samuel, as well as Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, excel at breaking tackles and making plays with the ball in their hands. While Jimmy G is limited in his skill set, he fits perfectly with the pieces of this San Francisco offense as the point guard who just has to get the ball to the playmakers. San Francisco will be “uniquely aggressive” as they find wrinkles and new looks to show defenses and will take their shots in other ways than the usual traditional downfield passing that most teams use to be aggressive. The 49ers will lean into their strengths and play at their usual methodical pace while being aggressive enough early to keep the game close or take a lead, as the last thing they will want is to be forced to play from behind with an already limited quarterback who is nursing multiple arm injuries in frigid temperatures.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

It is hard to imagine a worse matchup for Green Bay from a schematic standpoint. The strength of the 49ers offense (running game) lines up directly with the weakness of the Packers defense. Likewise, the strength of the 49ers defense lies in their elite run defense and stalwart defensive line and linebacker corps. This could be a big problem for Green Bay, whose offensive line has a couple of key players nursing and/or returning from injury and is missing their best offensive lineman, Elgton Jenkins, who was lost for the season a few weeks ago.

The Packers regularly play at a snail’s pace, something somewhat unique for a team that has been as successful as they have offensively. This is a game where taking control and building a lead would be very important, but the Packers are not the type of team that usually takes that approach. One huge factor in how the Packers attack this game, and the efficiency with which they are able to move the ball, is the health of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS). The Packers are most dangerous with MVS on the field to stretch the defense vertically and give Aaron Rodgers a legitimate downfield threat to make defenses pay for selling out to stop Davante Adams. MVS has a back injury and had a limited practice on Tuesday before sitting out both Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, it is hard to see him playing, and if he does find a way on the field, he will be at high risk of re-injury, and his effectiveness will be in question.

The way everything is lining up, the Packers are going to have to rely on Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to carry them to a victory. Their running game is strong, but the difficult matchup that San Francisco’s front seven presents, along with Green Bay’s offensive line issues, dictate that it will be tough sledding to consistently move the ball that way. Without MVS on the field, San Francisco will be able to give Adams even more attention than usual, which will force Rodgers to make his way against a San Francisco secondary that struggled to stay healthy for much of the year but is getting stronger by the week and just had a very good game against a loaded Dallas passing attack.


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Likeliest Game Flow :: 

While the “most likely outcome” is a grinder of a game, it should also be noted that there is a huge range of outcomes for how things could turn out. If Green Bay is able to get a lead early, it would not be surprising at all if Jimmy G is unable to function in comeback mode in cold weather with all of his injury issues, resulting in a Packers blowout. Likewise, it would not be completely surprising to see the San Francisco running game punish the Packers on the ground and take the lead while their defense turns the Packers offense into a one-dimensional attack and tees off on a battered offensive line with limited explosive threats. This would be similar to the NFC Championship game these teams played two years ago when the 49ers ran all over the Packers and dominated on their way to the Super Bowl.

The “likeliest game flow” is a slow-paced game, as both teams are well-coached and have talent on both sides of the ball while playing relatively conservatively from both a pace and play-calling perspective. The Packers have been one of the top teams in the league all season, and the 49ers are playing as well as anyone right now, making it unlikely that either team will fall significantly behind early in the game. The only paths to outlier scenarios would be “Jimmy G throws a stinker” or “Packers run defense gets completely smashed.” 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN NOTES

By Dwprix >>

Week 3 Matchup:

  • SF trailed 17-0 in the 1st matchup
  • They came back and led 28-27 with only 37 seconds left
  • Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers into FG range for the game winner, 30-27
  • SF was without Eli Mitchell the first matchup
  • GB held SF to its 2nd lowest rushing total of the season (67 yds)
  • SF RT Mike McGlinchey played WK 3, now out for season
  • Tom Compton has filled in & owns PFFs 6th highest run blocking grade of all NFL O-lineman (Trent Williams is 1st, 99.9)
  • SF Slot Corner K’Waun Williams left injured after 6 snaps 
  • SF CB Josh Norman left injured after 30 snaps
  • Davante Adams: (12:132:1TD, 18 tgts, 34.2 DK pts, 4.12x)
  • $8.3k WK 3 // $8.5K this WK 
  • SF gave up 81 yards to DPI
  • SF starting CBs (PFF grade WK 3): Deommodore Lenoir (57.1) // Josh Norman, left injured (46.5) // Dontae Johnson (62.2)
  • Starting CBs this week (PFF grade): Emmanuel Mosley (70.3) // 3rd RD Rookie Ambry Thomas (52.2) // K’Waun Williams (64.5)
  • GB starting CBs WK 3: Jaire Alexander (75.1) // 1st RD Rookie Eric Stokes (66.3) // Chandon Sullivan (55.0)
  • Starting CBs this WK: Alexander (75.1) // Rasul Douglas (73.5) // Sullivan (55.0)
  • Deebo Samuel had his lowest DK pt total all season on 10 tgts, 2 rush atts (5:52 rec, 2:0 rush, 10.2 pts)

Overview: 

  • 47 total, tied with CIN @ TEN for lowest
  • GB favored by 6 (DK)
  • GB has the 2nd highest implied pt total (26.5)
  • SF has the lowest (20.5)
  • SF has won 3 straight playoff games vs GB: (37-20 2019 NFC Champ) // (23-20 2013 WC) // (45-32 2012 Div. RD) 
  • SF has won 4 of their last 5: (@ DAL 23-17, @ LAR 27-24, vs HOU 23-7, @ TEN 17-20, vs ATL 31-13, @ CIN 26-23)
  • Prior to sitting Rodgers for half of WK 18 vs DET, GB had won 5 straight: (vs MIN 37-10, vs CLE 24-22, @ BAL 31-30, vs CHI 45-30, vs LAR 36-28)
  • SF is 7-3 on the road // GB is 8-0 at home
  • ATS: SF (10-8) // GB (12-5)
  • GB ranks 10th in ppg (26.5) // SF ranks T-7th in ppg allowed (21.2) 
  • SF ranks T-13 in ppg (25.0) // GB ranks T-12 in ppg allowed (21.8)
  • GB is 4-0 vs playoff teams: (vs LAR 36-28, @ ARZ 24-21, @ CIN 25-22, @ SF 30-28)
  • WK 12 was the last time GB played a playoff team (vs LAR)
  • SF is 5-4 vs playoff teams (4-1 in their last 5): (@ DAL 23-17, @ LAR 27-24, @ TEN 17-20, @ CIN 26-23, vs LAR 31-10, vs ARZ 17-31, @ ARZ 10-17, vs GB 28-30, @ PHI 17-11) 
  • GB ranked 3rd in TO differential (+13) // SF T-22nd (-4)
  • GB ranks 1st in TOP (32.4) // SF ranks 12th (30.4)

Jimmy Garoppolo:

  • $5.2k is the cheapest starting QB & cheapest Jimmy has been all season
  • Jimmy to pay off: 3x (15.6) // 4x (20.8) // 5x (26)
  • He’s scored at least 3x this salary in 10 of 15 full games but 4x only twice
  • Ceiling games: 30.3 (5.4x) // 23.3 (4.1x) 
  • TD:INT ratio last 3 games: 2:5 
  • GB T-6th w/ 18 INTs
  • GB allows 19.3 DK pts to QBs (T-10th most)

Deebo Samuel:

  • Deebo’s .34 broken tackles/att is the highest of any ball carrier ever charted by PFF (min 50 atts)
  • 9 TDs in last 10 games (8 rush)
  • 18.0 yds/reception on 117 tgts, 80 receptions
  • This was 3rd behind DeSean Jackson (34 tgts) & Henry Ruggs (35 tgts)
  • Ceiling games: (31.1 @ TEN, 30.3 vs LAR, 38.7 vs SEA)
  • $7.6k is the 3rd highest priced WR & his lowest price since WK 10

SF Receiving:

  • SF ranked 1st in yds/completion (12.2) 
  • GB D ranked 10th in yds allowed/completion (9.8)
  • GB allows 35.9 DK pts to WR (16th most)
  • They allow the 11th most pts to TEs (13.4)
  • RR vs DAL of 27: Kittle (24) // Aiyuk (23) // Deebo (17) // Jennings (16) // Juszczyk (16) // Mitchell (10) // Sherfield (7) // Benjamin (4)
  • Tgts vs DAL (of 25): Aiyuk (6) // Jennings (5) // Samuel (3) // Kittle (3) // Juszczyk (3) // Sherfield (2) // Mitchell (2) // Benjamin (1)
  • Aiyuk ($5.2k) is the cheapest he’s been since WK 10
  • Tgts last 3: (6, 7, 6)
  • Kittle ($5.3k) is the cheapest he’s been since WK 9
  • Ceiling games: 37.1 (5.4x) // 42.6 (7.2x)
  • Deebo DNP the 42.6 game, was dealing with a hammy in the 37.1 game

Eli Mitchell:

  • Mitchell has at least 21 touches in 6 straight
  • SF O ranks 5th in run DVOA
  • GB D ranks 28th in DVOA vs the run
  • $5.8k is the 5th most expensive RB (Henry, Jones, Mixon, Singletary)
  • Mitchell has hit the 100 yd bonus 5 times in 12 games & has other games of 96, 85, & 91 rush yds 
  • He’s also scored at least 3x in 5 games
  • Ceiling games of: 24.0 (4.0x) //  30.8 (5.7x) // 22.7 (4.2x)

Aaron Rodgers:

  • Passer rating under pressure: 67.9 (21st)
  • Passer rating while clean: 123.0 (1st)
  • Nick Bosa’s (questionable, concussion) PFF pass rush grade (90.0) ranks 8th among D linemen
  • GB O ranks 2nd in pass DVOA
  • SF D ranks 15th vs the pass
  • GB ranks 9th in pass yds/g (253.8)
  • SF D ranks 6th in pass yds allowed (207.8)
  • Ceiling Games: (32.6 vs CHI, 36.5 @ MIN, 29.3 vs LAR)
  • $7.1k is the 3rd highest priced QB (Mahomes, Allen)
  • To pay off: 3x (21.3) // 4x (28.4) // 5x (35.5)
  • SF allows 18.6 DK pts/g to QBs (18.6)

Davante Adams:

  • 6 of 15 games with 30+ (33.6, 36.4, 37.1, 33.5, 40.6, 34.2) 
  • Scored 36.4 WK 16 vs CLE
  • CLE D tied with SF D in yds allowed/completion (9.4)
  • GB ranked T-8th in yds/completion (10.7)
  • Davante averaged 12.6/reception
  • $8.5k is the 2nd highest priced WR (Kupp)
  • To pay off: 3x (25.5) // 4x (34.0) // 5x (42.5)

GB Pass Catchers:

  • SF allows 36.9 DK pts to WRs (10th most)
  • They allow the 7th least DK pts to TEs (9.4)
  • SF D in WC vs DAL: Cooper (6:64:1TD, 18.4 DK pts) // Wilson (5:62, 11.2 pts) // Lamb (1:21, 6.6 pts)
  • SF allowed 11:145:1TD (34.5 DK pts, 5.47x) to AJ Brown WK 16 (Titans only scored 17 pts)
  • RR WK 17 vs MIN of 46: Adams (40) // MVS (36) // Lazard (35) // Dillon (22) // Jones (21) // Tyler Davis (20) // Josiah Deguara (20) // St. Brown (9) // 5 players w/ 8 or less
  • Tgts last 3: Adams (7, 14, 13) // Lazard (6, 6, 5) // MVS (Doubtful) (1, 3, DNP) // Cobb (5, 2, 4) // St. Brown (5, 2, 0) // Winfree (3, 2, 1) // Deguara (4, 3, 3) // Lewis (1, 0, 3)

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon:

  • SF allows 21.8 DK pts to RBs (10th fewest)
  • SF last week vs DAL: Pollard (4:14 rush , 2:12 rec, 4.6 DK pts) // Elliott (12:31, 1:0, 4.1 DK pts)
  • Dillon saw 14 carries on 39 snaps WK 18
  • Atts:tgts last 4: Jones (DNP, 8:6, 12:6, 13:2) // Dillon (14:1, 14:3, 9:3, 15:1)
  • Jones Ceiling game: 41.5 DK pts WK 2 vs DET (17:67:1TD rush, 6:48:3 TDs)
  • He had only 2 other games breaking 3x salary (24.0, 21.5)
  • Dillon had 3 games breaking 3x salary (22.3, 20.0, 26.8)
  • Jones ($6.8k) is the 2nd highest priced RB 
  • To pay off: 3x (20.4) // 4x (27.2) // 5x (34)
  • $5.1k is the cheapest Dillon has been since WK 10
  • To pay off: 3x (15.3) // 4x (20.4) // 5x (25.5)s