Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Cleveland is making a change at quarterback, giving second year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson the starting job.
- Browns RB Nick Chubb broke his foot last week and is done for the season, leaving Jerome Ford in the feature back role.
- Cincinnati can still make the playoffs if they win their three remaining games.
- Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase continue to have career years and have a great matchup against a Browns defense that has been susceptible to big plays.
- Cleveland’s offense once again awaits the status of WR Cedric Tillman and TE David Njoku, who are battling injuries.
How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::
While we all loved the Jameis Winston experience, the Browns and head coach Kevin Stefanski have seen enough. While we don’t know what they will do with the albatross contract of QB Deshaun Watson, the possibility of them sticking with Winston as their starter next year seems to have slipped away like one of the many turnovers he had in his stint as the QB1. After an exciting first start in place of Watson with a comeback victory over the depleted secondary of the Ravens, the Browns have been 1-5 since and the only win was the Thursday night “blizzard game” against the Steelers. Winston turned the ball over 10 times in the last four games and the team finally had enough.
The Browns rank 6th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they let Watson throw at a high rate and did not have Nick Chubb to start the season, and then rode Winston’s arm and an underrated group of pass catchers since the QB change. The team will now turn to second year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, which may alter their approach. Their run rate had already increased in recent weeks as they tried to cut back on Winston’s turnovers, as they rank 15th in PROE over their last four games and have actually thrown the ball at a slightly below expected rate. DTR started three games last season and completed just over 50% of his passes while averaging under four yards per pass attempt (YPA). For context, the worst NFL QB in 2023 averaged 5.1 YPA. DTR did add over 20 rushing yards in each of his starts, but that wasn’t worth much as the team scored 25 total points in his three starts.
This week’s matchup against the Bengals, who rank 27th in run defense DVOA and 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, should allow Cleveland to lean more on their running game, despite the absence of Chubb, who broke his foot and ended his season last week. Jerome Ford steps into the lead back role once again and had a long run against the Chiefs last week, but struggled to show consistency and/or efficiency during his stint at the top of the depth chart early in the season. D’Onta Foreman may mix in for a few carries and Pierre Strong Jr. may play on some passing downs.
All things considered, the Browns likeliest path to a victory against the high flying Bengals likely comes from slowing the game down, their defense stepping up, and controlling the tempo. The last thing they will want is a shootout between DTR and Joe Burrow. Wide receiver Cedric Tillman is practicing on a limited basis, as he did last week, but has yet to be cleared to return from his concussion while tight end David Njoku has not yet practiced and seems destined for another week being inactive. The loss of those two key weapons further confirms the likelihood of Cleveland approaching this game conservatively.
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