Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Bears offense, specifically the passing game, finally came to life in Week 12 against a very good Vikings defense.
- Detroit’s offense continues to hum and their league-best running game is in a great spot this week against the leaky run defense of the Bears.
- Lions RB David Montgomery and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown were non-participants in practice Monday and their statuses should be monitored closely heading into Thursday’s game.
- The Lions have not won on Thanksgiving since 2016, with three losses during their drought coming at the hands of the Bears.
How chicago Will Try To Win ::
Chicago’s season has been a roller coaster, with a very rough start to the season followed by a nice three-game stretch heading into their bye week, and then emerging from their bye to play poorly and have their offensive coordinator fired. They have played two games since removing Shane Waldron from the equation. In the first game, they played the Packers in what turned out to be a relatively low-play volume outing. The Bears had a field goal blocked as time expired and lost 20-19. While the overall offensive output wasn’t tremendous, we could start to see some changes taking place. Last week against the Vikings (who entered the game as the #1 ranked DVOA defense in the NFL) was probably Chicago’s best offensive game of the season despite losing 30-27 in overtime. The Bears play in what is currently the best division in football and this week’s game in Detroit will be the finale of a three game stretch in 11 days in which they faced all of their divisional opponents. Despite Chicago’s 4-7 record and current four game losing streak, they are playing very good football right now and narrowly lost to two very good teams recently. The arrow is pointing up.
Everything for the Bears starts with their prized rookie QB, Caleb Williams. During the last two weeks since their coordinator change, Williams has been cutting it loose a bit with his legs as he has been rushing more and scrambling to make downfield throws. Williams has 15 rushes for 103 yards over the last two games while making multiple highlight reel plays on scrambles, and throwing zero interceptions on 78 pass attempts against two very good pass defenses. The Bears offense has been retooled a bit in terms of how they use their receivers as well. DJ Moore is being used in a higher volume role and closer to the line of scrimmage, allowing him to use his elite talent with the ball in his hands to create yards after the catch. Moore is quickly ascending back to the top tier of WRs. Veteran Keenan Allen has maintained his role but is coming off his best game of the season against the Vikings, while rookie WR Rome Odunze seems primed for a breakout game at some point. Odunze leads the Bears in aDOT (average depth of target) at over 13 yards and has been targeted 10 times in each of his last two games. The Bears have moved TE Cole Kmet into a near every down role while D’Andre Swift still leads the backfield but cedes goal line touches to Roschon Johnson, who has scored in back-to-back games and has 6 TDs in his last eight appearances.
The Bears had a 78% dropback rate in Week 12 against the Vikings as their running game was giving them very little and they fell behind by two scores in the second half. They led most of the game the week before against the Packers, and 61% of their plays were pass attempts or scrambles by Williams. This week against the Lions they face the best offense in the league and a defense that faces the third highest opponent pass rate in the NFL. Chicago’s offensive line has struggled in the running game, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. The Lions run defense has been very strong for a couple of years now so Chicago is highly unlikely to have success on the ground, and we are likely to see a very high dropback rate from the Bears, much like we did this past week against Minnesota. Williams is likely to throw in the neighborhood of 40 passes and scramble a handful of times against a Lions defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in blitz rate and QB pressure rate. The Vikings play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, while the Lions lead the league in man coverage rate – making this a stark difference in passing game matchup. Keenan Allen had a great deal of success last week, but this week in man coverage (likely lined up against Lions All-Pro defensive back Brian Branch) will be much tougher sledding. Expect Moore’s diverse role that involves short targets and pre-snap motion to be critical, while Odunze has a chance to deliver on the elite usage we have seen from him lately. Chicago will have to pass early out of necessity and likely have to stick with it to keep pace.
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