Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- After failing to score 21 points or more through their first six games, the Dolphins have rattled off four consecutive games of 23 points or more, averaging 27.75 points per game their last four times out.
- Actually, on that note, these were the last two teams in the league to score 21 points in a game this season.
- Contrary to the Dolphins, however, the Patriots have managed just 19 points per game while peaking at 22 in Drake Maye’s five full games this year.
- These two teams played to a 15-10 Dolphins win in Week 5, albeit with both teams now having a different quarterback under center.
- Dolphins OT Terron Armstead and CB Kendall Fuller missed practice Wednesday.
HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Maye has given the Patriots signs of life, but they have still won just one of the five games where he started and finished. That said, they’ve either won or lost by six points or less in each of his previous four starts. Life has been difficult for New England quarterbacks behind an offensive line allowing the highest pressure rate in the league and generating the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt. The difference between Maye and previous starter Jacoby Brissett is that Maye has above-average pocket presence and the ability to extend plays with his legs, which has helped the Patriots sustain more drives and approach games via their preferred methods, which includes a run-balanced attack, modest pace of play, and keeping the game close into the fourth quarter. There is no reason to expect that blueprint to change against the Dolphins in these two teams’ second meeting of the season. The Patriots’ offense has taken on additional transformation in the form of personnel groupings, leaving only wide receiver Kayshon Boutte and tight end Hunter Henry as near every-down skill position players, with a newfound emphasis on 12-personnel.
Rhamondre Stevenson has now averaged 21.86 opportunities and 18.33 DK points per game in the seven games the Patriots either won or lost by six points or less. The problem for him this week is that the Patriots are currently seven-point road dogs against a Dolphins team that is the healthiest they have been since Week 1. Even so, we should expect the Patriots to begin the game with a run-balanced attack that features Stevenson, continuing in that approach for as long as the game remains close. It hasn’t been until games get out of hand that we start seeing Antonio Gibson and JaMycal Hasty more involved this season. The pure rushing matchup on the ground combines to create the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact on the slate, behind only the Raiders against the Broncos.
As was stated above, the only two pass-catchers that consistently see a nearly every-down role are Boutte and Henry, with the newfound emphasis on 12-personnel nuking the snap rate of slot man DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne clearly fighting to regain the trust of his coaching staff, and Ja’Lynn Polk relegated to situational package work. That leaves very few paths to upside from any single pass catcher in this offense, likely restricting our interest to the two players in every-down roles on a standard week (last week was far from standard). The Dolphins rank 10th in passing yards allowed per game at just 199.0, making this an all-around poor spot for offensive production through the air.
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